Mon, Feb. 2, 1:20 PM
- Following today's steep decline, Qorvo (QRVO -6.3%) is down 8% since beating FQ3 estimates and issuing healthy FQ4 guidance last Wednesday (amid high expectations). 1.5M shares have been traded; the daily average since Qorvo began trading as a post-merger entity last month is 2M.
- Northland Securities upgraded the RF chipmaker to Outperform on Thursday. Shares go for 15x estimated FY16 (ends March '16) EPS. The FY16 revenue growth consensus is at 13.8%.
Wed, Jan. 28, 5:35 PM
Wed, Jan. 28, 5:13 PM
- In its first quarter as a merged company (FQ4), Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO) expects revenue of $615M-$625M and EPS of $0.80-$0.90 vs. a consensus of $619M and $0.82. Expectations were high going in, following strong numbers from peers and major client Apple.
- Total FQ3 revenue was $742M - $397.1M from RF Micro, $344.9M from TriQuint - beating a consensus of $723.4M. EPS of $1.46 topped a $1.16 consensus.
- RF Micro had an FQ3 gross margin of 49.3%, up from 48% in FQ2 and 39.7% a year earlier. TriQuint had a gross margin of 48.8%, up from 46.6% in FQ2 and 37.2% a year ago. The combined company expects a GM of 46%-48% in seasonally weak FQ4, and a tax rate of just 5%-10%.
- FQ3 results, PR
Wed, Jan. 28, 4:09 PM
Tue, Jan. 27, 6:01 PM
- Apple suppliers Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ:CRUS), NXP (NASDAQ:NXPI), Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS), Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO), and Avago (NASDAQ:AVGO) are up AH after the tech giant blew away FQ1 estimates on the back of 74.5M iPhone sales (+46% Y/Y and above forecasts of ~66-67M). iPad sales of 21.4M (-18%) were roughly in-line
- CRUS +2.9% to $26.79. NXPI +1.5% to $79.20. SWKS +1.3% to $82.60. QRVO +1% to $74.48. AVGO +2.7% to $107.60.
- Cirrus and Qorvo report tomorrow, and NXP on Feb. 4. Skyworks posted an FQ1 beat and offered strong guidance last week.
Fri, Jan. 23, 1:03 PM
- After barely moving in AH trading yesterday in response to its FQ1 beat and strong FQ2 guidance, Skyworks (SWKS +2.3%) has risen above $81 today as a flurry of bullish analyst reactions arrive. Rivals/fellow iPhone suppliers Qorvo (QRVO +4.8%) and Avago (AVGO +1.6%) are heading in the same direction.
- Brean's Mike Burton, hiking his Skyworks target by $22 to $92: "The [FQ1] upside was predominantly driven by the Integrated Solutions segment as Apple's iPhone 6/6+ ramped ... we believe LTE growth in China and several new model ramps (Samsung Galaxy S6 amongst others to be unveiled in Barcelona) coupled with Skyworks Solutions less seasonal Broad Markets business is driving the better-than-seasonal guidance."
- Burton also thinks Skyworks is on its way to achieving a 50% gross margin (up from FQ1's 46.7%), and notes inventory days (58) were down by 15 Y/Y.
- Canaccord's Mike Walkley: "We believe Skyworks' diverse analog portfolio is enabling content share gains with its smartphone customers. Further, we anticipate Skyworks' share gains in markets such as WiFi 802.11ac, wireless infrastructure, and the IoT market are also driving strong growth trends." His FY16 (ends Sep. '16) EPS estimate has been hiked by $0.66 to $5.89.
- On the CC (transcript), CEO David Aldrich noted Skyworks' non-mobile design wins include a GM telematics platform, Cisco home gateways, ZigBee connectivity modules for Philips/LG smart light bulbs, Amazon's Echo and Fire TV devices, and a DirecTV set-top. China's Xiaomi has joined Apple and Samsung as a major mobile client.
- Qorvo reports on Jan. 28.
Tue, Jan. 13, 1:04 PM
- Believing "strong dynamics for the RF industry will continue in 2015," BMO's Tim Long has upgraded Skyworks (SWKS +2.5%) and newly-merged Qorvo (QRVO +0.4%) to Outperform, while respectively assigning $85 and $80 targets. His FY15 EPS estimates are at $4.59 and $3.57.
- Long's expected catalysts: 1) The iPhone 6S could feature a "bump in RF content" relative to the iPhone 6. 2) Samsung "may start to increase RF content in some of its higher-end models as management looks to reduce the number of phones in its portfolio." 3) China Unicom/Telecom could "implement higher RF content in five-mode LTE phones during the 4G push this year, similar to what happened at China Mobile in 2014."
- Skyworks is rallying, while Qorvo is up modestly after previously posting bigger gains. Oppenheimer and Northland have launched coverage on Qorvo with neutral ratings the latest in a line of sell-side firms to restart coverage following the RF Micro/TriQuint merger.
- Previously: Rosenblatt sees Skyworks benefiting from Chinese 4G demand
Tue, Jan. 6, 1:36 PM
- Up 30% in 2014, the Philadelphia Semi Index (SOXX -2.2%) has fallen over 4% thus far in 2015. Today's decline comes as the Nasdaq drops 1.6%.
- Many names are posting 3%+ losses. SWKS -4.2%. QRVO -5.8%. AMAT -3.4%. KLAC -3.1%. SYNA -5.4%. IPHI -9%. ARMH -5.4%. SIMO -4.5%. MCRL -3.9%. AMCC -3.9%. CODE -5.1%. CY -4.6%. QUIK -7.9%.
- This morning, Gartner estimated global chip sales rose 7.9% in 2014 to $339.8B, a little less than the 9.4% recently estimated by IHS. Sell-side firms have forecast industry growth will fall to the ~5% range in 2015.
- Gartner thinks memory sales rose 16.9%, fueled by a 31.7% increase in DRAM sales. All other chip markets rose by 5.4%, a marked improvement from 2013's 0.8%. Intel (15% share) and Samsung (10.4%) claimed over a quarter of industry sales between them. Qualcomm (5.6%), Micron (4.9%), and SK Hynix (4.7%) rounded out the top-5.
- Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
Fri, Jan. 2, 9:47 AM
- As of today, RF Micro and TriQuint no longer exist as independent companies. Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO), the post-merger entity, is currently trading above $68 on the Nasdaq.
- Last month, SA Pro author Helix Investment Research argued in favor of holding onto Qorvo, in spite of RF Micro and TriQuint's huge 2014 gains. Helix cited strong post-merger synergies/expected margin expansion, a healthy balance sheet, and ongoing industry growth thanks to the higher RF content of 4G devices.
Dec. 29, 2014, 8:05 AM
- Needham Quinn Bolton is turning more cautious on chip stocks following a blistering 2014: Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS), RF Micro (NASDAQ:RFMD), TriQuint (NASDAQ:TQNT), Cavium (NASDAQ:CAVM), M/A-COM (NASDAQ:MTSI), and MaxLinear (NYSE:MXL) have been downgraded to Hold, and Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA) downgraded to Underperform.
- Bolton often cites valuation. Regarding Skyworks, he notes shares are "up 161% YTD in 2014, vs. 30.3% for the SOX Index and 15.1% for the NASDAQ Composite, and trading above [Needham's] prior price target of $70, or 14x our CY16E non-GAAP EPS estimate."
- Likewise, Bolton notes RF Micro and TriQuint, who will be jointly known as Qorvo starting on Jan. 1, have exceeded his respective targets of $16.50 and $27.50 (12x 2016E EPS), and would prefer to see if a buying opportunity emerges in 1H15. Cavium is trading above Needham's $58 target (based on a DCF valuation model).
- Regarding Ambarella, he cites not only valuation, but also a belief the video processor vendor could underperform in 2015 due to slowing revenue growth, gross margin pressure, and price pressure from top customer GoPro. "A more challenging cable outlook and a push-out in the ramp of its satellite gateway and ODU opportunities" are cited as reasons for downgrading MaxLinear.
- SWKS -1.2% premarket. RFMD -1.1%. TQNT -1.9%. AMBA -3.5%.
- Last Friday: Chip industry growth expected to slow following strong 2014
- Bullish opinions: Brean, Rosenblatt
Dec. 22, 2014, 4:58 PM
- Brean's Mike Burton left a talk with RF Micro (NASDAQ:RFMD) IR chief Doug Delieto believing "some of the recent investor concerns about a ‘coming deterioration in pricing and/or margins’ looks like ‘healthy paranoia’ (we share the feeling, but it doesn’t look likely).”
- Meanwhile, CFO William Priddy stated he believes Qorvo, as RF Micro and TriQuint (NASDAQ:TQNT) will be known post-merger, can hold its margins steady in calendar Q1 even if revenue falls 10%-15% Q/Q due to seasonality. He adds
- Burton adds TriQuint "continues to see tightness" in the BAW and TC SAW filter markets, and that "conversations with other supply chain management and investor reps lead us to believe that, for those that are exposed to Apple, this quarter is playing out as well or better than was expected." Avago's recent numbers point in the same direction.
- Rising Chinese 4G phone sales are also viewed as a tailwind, given the higher RF content of 4G devices relative to 3G counterparts. Fast-growing Xiaomi was TriQuint's 2nd-biggest BAW filter customer last quarter.
- RF Micro rose 3.5% in regular trading, and TriQuint rose 3.6%. The Philadelphia Semi Index was up 1.2%.
Dec. 15, 2014, 5:01 PM
- James A. Clifford, until now RF Micro's (NASDAQ:RFMD) VP of global sourcing and foundry tech, has been hired by AMD to be its SVP of global operations. The job puts him in charge of "all aspects of AMD's end-to-end manufacturing and supply chain strategy."
- Clifford, 69, spent less than two years at RF Micro. He previously spent 17 years in executive roles at Qualcomm, and 20 before that at Unisys.
- The appointment comes two months after AMD named Lisa Su, who for a short while was the chipmaker's COO, its CEO. AMD hasn't named a COO to replace Su.
Dec. 15, 2014, 11:01 AM
- Citing valuation, D.A. Davidson has downgraded RF Micro (RFMD -3.8%) and TriQuint (TQNT -3.8%), soon to jointly be known as Qorvo, to Neutral. Its targets are respectively $16 and $27.
- RF Micro is up 156%, and TriQuint is up 170%, since the RF component vendors announced their "merger of equals" on Feb. 24.
Dec. 4, 2014, 12:14 PM
- Avago (AVGO +7.7%) has soared above $100 after beating FQ4 estimates, reporting a stronger-than-expected gross margin, and providing above-consensus FQ1 guidance.
- RF component peers Skyworks (SWKS +4.2%), RF Micro (RFMD +3.9%), and TriQuint (TQNT +4%) are also up, as is fellow iPhone supplier Cirrus Logic (CRUS +2.6%). Cirrus recently sold off after Deutsche cut its calendar Q1 iPhone production forecast.
- On its CC (transcript), Avago noted wireless growth (+73% Q/Q and +83% Y/Y) was "largely driven by the ramp of a new smartphone generation and a large North American smartphone OEM" (undoubtedly Apple).
- Avago added it also saw strong demand for FBAR filter-related products (gaining share due to 4G RF requirements) elsewhere, with demand from Chinese 4G phone OEMs particularly strong. Over 80% of wireless revenue is now FBAR-related.
- Avago expects wireless revenue to be "flat to perhaps slightly down" Q/Q in seasonally weak FQ1, with strong demand from Apple (referred to once more as "a large North American smartphone OEM") offsetting seasonal declines elsewhere. The company notes it remains "very capacity-constrained," and has been making investments to deal with the issue.
- At least 10 sell-side firms have hiked their targets.
Nov. 24, 2014, 11:41 AM| Nov. 24, 2014, 11:41 AM | 1 Comment
Nov. 7, 2014, 3:18 PM
- Skyworks (SWKS -3.7%) has received at least seven target hikes since delivering above-consensus FQ1 guidance yesterday afternoon and upping its dividend. But shares are nonetheless seeing profit-taking following a huge 2014 rally. Peers RF Micro (RFMD -4.4%), TriQuint (TQNT -4.1%), and Avago (AVGO -3%), each of which has also fared well this year, are also selling off.
- Needham (target hiked to $70) notes FQ4 results benefited from "broad-based demand drivers including content gains at multiple smartphone OEMs, the LTE ramp in China, the 3G upgrade cycle in emerging markets, multi-stream 802.11ac [Wi-Fi] deployments and [high-power amplifier] penetration across multiple vertical end markets." It also observes management "expects revenue will continue to grow at a rate faster than the industry in F1Q15 and FY15 overall."
- Oppenheimer declares the RF component boom cycle to be in its early innings. Pac Crest thinks Skyworks' Apple sales are offsetting Samsung weakness, and is upbeat about strong non-mobile demand. "Channels remain lean and inventory build suggests good multi-quarter visibility," says BofA/Merrill.
- Shares currently go for 14x the pre-earnings FY15 (ends Sep. '15) EPS consensus exc. net cash; the consensus should go up post-earnings.
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