Mon, Mar. 16, 6:03 PM
- In addition to soundly beating Q4 estimates, Qunar (NASDAQ:QUNR) is guiding for 85%-90% Y/Y Q1 revenue growth, above an 81.1% (dollar-based) consensus.
- Driving the Q4 beat: Mobile revenue rose 400.7% Y/Y to $41.5M (49.5% of total revenue). Air ticket volume +61.8% to 24.6M (46% mobile); room night volume +107.7% to 8.9% (70% mobile).
- Flight revenue +116.1% to $55.5M; hotel revenue +76.8% to $16.5M. Revenue/air ticket rose 2% Q/Q and 33.6%, while revenue/room night rose 2.5% Q/Q (a sign that an industry price war is calming?) and fell 14.9%
- Gross margin was 73.5% vs. 72.4% in Q3 and 79.8% a year ago. R&D spend +124.4% Y/Y to $39M; product sourcing +273.9% to $17.8M; sales/marketing +167.6% to $44.9M; G&A +73.9% to $16.6M. Marketing spend for Qunar's Baidu Zhixin JV rose 6% Q/Q to $40.3M.
- Qunar has risen to $29.90 AH.
- Q4 results, PR
Mon, Mar. 16, 5:10 PM| 1 Comment
Sun, Mar. 15, 5:35 PM
Dec. 2, 2014, 1:06 PM
- Down AH yesterday after providing light Q4 revenue guidance to go with a Q3 revenue beat and in-line EPS, Qunar (NASDAQ:QUNR) has reversed course. Low expectations seem to be helping - shares were down 33% from a March high of $36.73 going into earnings.
- Top rival Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP), however, is seeing more pain. Shares now -18% since Ctrip's Nov. 25 Q3 report.
- On its CC (transcript), Qunar noted headcount had soared to 7K+ at the end of Q3 from 2.5K+ at the end of 2013. The company expects to end 2014 with ~8K workers, but doesn't plan to significantly increase headcount in 2015.
- When asked about competition, CEO C.C. Zhuang asserted Qunar's air travel market lead has widened, and that it has "the fastest growth rates" in the hotel reservation space, where Ctrip continues to lead.
- Qunar respectively saw Y/Y flight ticket and hotel room night volume growth of 57% and 84.6% in Q3; Ctrip's growth rates were 98% and 69%.
Dec. 1, 2014, 5:13 PM
- Though it beat Q3 revenue estimates (while posting in-line EPS), Qunar (NASDAQ:QUNR) is guiding for 90%-95% Y/Y Q4 revenue growth; consensus is for 95% growth.
- Thanks to gross margin pressure and (especially) heavy spending, op. margin fell to -54.6% (no typo) in Q3 from -50.9% in Q2 and -10.9% a year earlier. Archrival Ctrip can relate.
- Gross margin fell to 72.4% from 73.6% in Q2 and 79.4% a year earlier; Qunar blames online payment processing fees. R&D spend +153.1% Y/Y to $37.4M; sales/marketing +189.6% to $43.4M; online marketing +59.6% to $38.4M; product sourcing +519.9% Y/Y to $16.3M; G&A +267.1% to $17.4M.
- Top-line numbers were strong: Pay-for-performance (P4P) flight revenue +104.1% Y/Y to $50.8M, and P4P hotel revenue +98.1% to $18.2M. Mobile revenue soared 445.1%, and made up 40.4% of total revenue. Flight ticket and hotel room night volumes respectively rose 57% and 84.6%.
- Shares fell 5.9% in regular trading ahead of the release, and also sold off a bit last week on account of Ctrip's Q3 numbers.
- Q3 results, PR
Dec. 1, 2014, 4:35 PM
Nov. 30, 2014, 5:35 PM
Nov. 26, 2014, 2:08 PM
- On top of providing light Q4 sales guidance, Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) guided on its CC (transcript) for a Q4 op. margin of -12% to -17%, down sharply from Q3's 11% and Q4 2013's 20%. Gross margin is expected to account for 3% of the Y/Y drop, sales/marketing spend 12%, R&D 18%, and G&A 2%.
- The outlook has led Barclays, UBS, and Raymond James to downgrade the Chinese online travel leader to neutral ratings. Several other firms have slashed their targets.
- Piper (Neutral, PT cut to $49): "Management reiterated expectations of 20%-30% PF op margins long-term, but visibility on multi-year margin trajectory is low due to increasing competition. Furthermore, beyond Q4, the company suggested that Q1 PF op margin may be flattish q/q and 2015 PF op margin may be similar to 2014 (low to mid single digits)."
- Goldman (Neutral, PT cut to $59) likes Ctrip's mobile metrics - mobile was respectively 45% and 35% of hotel and air ticket volume - and notes Ctrip's open platform now claims 1K+ hotel agency partners and 800+ local travel agencies. But it also expects spending on R&D, rebates (due to price competition), branding, and product coverage expansion to remain heavy.
- Rivals Qunar (QUNR -2.2%) and eLong (LONG -2.4%) are following Ctrip lower.
Aug. 21, 2014, 4:58 PM
- In addition to beating Q2 revenue estimates (while missing on EPS), Qunar (NASDAQ:QUNR) is guiding for 90%-95% Y/Y Q3 revenue growth; the consensus is for revenue to grow 83% to $72M.
- Mobile revenue rose 511.8% Y/Y in Q2 to $22.9M (35.5% of revenue), fueling the revenue beat. Flight revenue +143.3% to $45M; hotel revenue +79.5% to $11.5M. Flight ticket volume +66.1%, and revenue/ticket +46.4%. Hotel room night volume +105.2%, but revenue per room night -12.5%.
- Gross margin fell to 73.6% from 78.1% in Q1 and 78.2% a year ago (hurt EPS). Qunar notes higher payment-processing fees pressured its gross profit.
- Spending was heavy: R&D spend +181.6% Y/Y to $29.3M, sales/marketing +212.4% to $34.7M, product sourcing spend +416.1% to $10.9M, G&A spend +432.9% to $18M. Online marketing spend +120.5% Q/Q to $23.8M.
- If history is any guide, Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) and/or eLong (NASDAQ:LONG) could follow Qunar higher.
- Q2 results, PR
Aug. 21, 2014, 4:38 PM| Comment!
Aug. 20, 2014, 5:35 PM
May. 16, 2014, 1:21 PM
- Though Qunar's (QUNR -3.3%) Q1 revenue beat consensus by $3.9M, soaring spending led EPS to miss by $0.15. R&D spend rose 116.8% Y/Y to $19.5M, product sourcing spend 358.2% to $6.3M, sales/marketing spend 158.8% to $21M, and G&A spend 293% to $10.8M.
- Also: Gross margin fell 170 bps Q/Q and 300 bps Y/Y to 78.1%, and $10.8M was spent on marketing for Qunar's Baidu Zhixin unit. Both Qunar and rival Ctrip (CTRP +0.1%) are spending heavily on promotions
- The good news: Qunar expects Q2 revenue to grow 90%-95% Y/Y, an acceleration from Q1's 83.6% clip.
- Mobile revenue rose 114% Q/Q and 415% Y/Y to $17.1M, and made up 31.7% of total revenue. Total Web users +3% Q/Q and +24% Y/Y to 241M; total mobile users +12% Q/Q and +86% Y/Y to 60.3M. Estimated flight ticket volume +75% to 17.5M; estimated room-night volume +100.7% to 5.9M.
- Pac Crest (Outperform) has lowered its PT by $6 to $34 due to spending worries, but remains bullish long-term.
- Q1 results, PR
May. 15, 2014, 5:08 PM
May. 14, 2014, 5:35 PM
Feb. 27, 2014, 5:58 PM
Feb. 12, 2014, 7:05 PM
- Applied Materials (AMAT) expects FQ2 revenue to be up 3%-10% Q/Q (implies a range of $2.26B-$2.41B) and EPS of $0.25-$0.29. The guidance is in-line with a consensus of $2.32B and $0.27. FQ1 orders +9% Q/Q to $2.29B, book-to-bill was 1.05. Shares +1.1% AH. (FQ1 results, PR)
- Angie's List (ANGI) expects Q1 revenue of $71.5M-$72.5M, below a $74.1M consensus. Shares -15.1% AH. (Q4 results, PR)
- Ctrip (CTRP) expects 25%-30% Y/Y Q1 revenue growth vs. a 29.4% consensus. Shares +5.5% AH. Rival Qunar (QUNR) +3.6%. (Q4 results, PR)
QUNR vs. ETF Alternatives
Qunar Cayman Islands Ltd is engaged in the operation of an online travel commerce platform with the provision of pay-for-performance services, display advertising services and other services in the People's Republic of China (PRC).
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