iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETFNYSEARCA
Yesterday, 7:31 AM
- The risk/reward on AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) is no longer compelling at current levels," says Douglas Harter, downgrading to Neutral from Outperform, and cutting the price target to $19.50 from $21 (last night's close $18.09).
- He expects a whopping 7.8% decline in book value through November (to be announced on Dec. 12). This comes against his forecast of a 2.6% decrease in book value for the sector (NYSEARCA:REM) as a whole, and flat economic return (defined as the change in book value plus the dividend) for Q4.
- As far as AGNC's relative valuation at the moment, it trades for 91% of tangible book vs. just 84% for fellow sector giant Annaly Capital (NYSE:NLY). The sector as a whole trades at 91% of book. He's also cutting Annaly's PT to $11 from $11.50, along with CYS Investment (NYSE:CYS) to $8.50 from $9. Chimera Investment (NYSE:CIM), however, gets its PT boosted to $17 from $15.50 to reflect strong incremental returns.
- Harter and team's top picks remain those names with less exposure to interest rate risk, better historical track records, and lower book value volatility: Two Harbors (NYSE:TWO), New Residential (NYSE:NRZ), PennyMac (NYSE:PMT), and Starwood (NYSE:STWD).
Tue, Nov. 29, 2:31 PM
- Though lagging the S&P 500 by about 100 basis points since the election (and the banks by a mile), the mortgage REITs are nevertheless higher since the election despite the sharp rise in interest rates.
- Mortgage REITs are carry players, of course, and can expect to see boosts to income if long rates rise faster than short rates (though book value could take a hit).
- The iShares FTSE Nareit Mortgage REIT ETF (REM +1.2%) today is outperforming the S&P 500's 0.35% advance. The 10-year Treasury yield is down five basis points to 2.30%.
- Annaly (NLY +1%), AGNC Investment (AGNC +1.7%), Two Harbors (TWO +2.9%), Chimera (CIM +2.1%), CYS Investments (CYS +2%), Invesco (IVR +1.5%), Capstead (CMO +1.5%), Western Asset (WMC +1.5%), AG Mortgage (MITT +2.7%)
- ETFs: MORT, MORL
Thu, Nov. 3, 11:38 AM
- With more than half the sector having reported their Q3s, the general themes are rising earnings (covering payouts) and gains in book value leading to sizable returns. Among those who reported last night or this morning - Armour Residential (ARR +1.9%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +2.1%), MFA Financial (MFA +1.9%), Western Asset (WMC +1.8%), Anworth (ANH +2%).
- The iShares FTSE Nareit mREIT ETF (REM +1%)
- Other ETFs: MORL, MORT
Thu, Oct. 27, 10:42 AM
- The 10-year Treasury yield is making new bear-cycle highs today, up another seven basis points to 1.86% - its perkiest level since May. The move up in yields is global, with U.K. 10-years up 11 bps and Germany's up 8.5 bps.
- Earlier today, the U.K. reported Q3 GDP growth of 0.5% - far better than what had been predicted post-Brexit.
- Facing at least a little more competition in the yield department, equity REITs have turned sharply lower, with VNQ down 2.1%, and IYR off 1.8%. Mortgage REITs (REM -0.6%) are faring a little better as solid Q3 earnings begin to roll in.
- The major U.S. averages have given up early gains and turned red, led by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both off 0.25%.
- Individual equity REITs: Verreit (VER -2.2%), Welltower (HCN -2.4%), Equity Residential (EQR -1.6%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -3.2%), Simon Property (SPG -3.2%), General Growth (GGP -2.6%), Public Storage (PSA -2.9%), Gramercy Property (GPT -1.9%), Washington Real Estate (WRE -1.2%), Hersha (HT -2.9%), Sunstone Hotel (SHO -1.4%), Stag Industrial (STAG -2%)
- Mortgage REITs: AGNC Investment (AGNC -1.5%), Annaly (NLY -0.7%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.4%), Capstead (CMO +0.3%)
- ETFs: VNQ, IYR, MORL, REM, MORT, DRN, RQI, URE, SCHH, ICF, RWR, SRS, RNP, RFI, JRS, KBWY, NRO, DRV, RIT, RIF, REK, DRA, FRI, FTY, FREL, LRET, PSR, WREI, XLRE, IARAX, RORE
Tue, Oct. 4, 4:29 PM
- Chatter of the ECB's plan to begin tapering monthly bond purchases sent interest rates sharply higher today, and REITs sharply lower.
- The 10-year Treasury yield gained 6.3 basis points to 1.688%.
- The mortgage REITs (REM -2.2%): Annaly (NLY -3.1%), Armour (ARR -1.2%), Two Harbors (TWO -2.9%), Chimera (CIM -3.9%), CYS (CYS -2.4%), Invesco (IVR -3%), Western Asset (WMC -2.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -2.7%), AG Mortgage (MITT -3.1%)
- Equity REITs (VNQ -1.4%): Realty Income (O -2.6%), WellTower (HCN -2.6%), HCP (HCP -2%), Vereit (VER -2.3%), Equity Residential (EQR -0.9%), Simon Property (SPG -1.5%), Public Storage (PSA -1.8%), Government Properties (GOV -2.7%), Gramercy Property (GPT -2.2%), Stag Industrial (STAG -3%)
- ETFs: VNQ, IYR, MORL, REM, MORT, DRN, RQI, URE, SCHH, ICF, RWR, SRS, RNP, RFI, JRS, KBWY, NRO, DRV, RIT, RIF, REK, DRA, FRI, FTY, FREL, LRET, PSR, WREI, XLRE, IARAX
Mon, Sep. 26, 3:26 PM
- A 1.55% decline in Europe amid worries over the financial condition of Deutsche Bank has helped send the U.S. averages lower by 0.85%, and Treasury yields to their slimmest this month. At the short end, traders are cutting bets on the chance of a rate hike at any point in 2016.
- Fading that negative action are the REITs, with the Vanguard REIT Index Fund (NYSEARCA:VNQ) higher by 0.3% and the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA:IYR) up 0.2%. The iShares Mortgage REIT ETF (NYSEARCA:REM) is also up 0.2%.
- Among individual issues: Annaly Capital (NLY +0.8%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.7%), Realty Income (O +1.1%), Omega Healthcare (OHI +1%), HCP (HCP +0.8%), Aimco (AIV +1.7%), Simon Property (SPG +0.5%), Kimco (KIM +0.8%), Public Storage (PSA +0.9%), Stag Industrial (STAG +0.5%)
Tue, Jul. 12, 11:38 AM
- Plunging interest rates in June led to an 8.5% pickup in 30-year and 15-year fixed agency MBS prepayment speeds, and 14% for ARMs, according to the latest data.
- KBW's Bose George expects prepayments to stay elevated over the next few months, but with mREITs already trading at an average 0.9x book value, the pressure on earnings may already be priced in.
- Picking out a couple of names, Capstead Mortgage (CMO +0.6%) has meaningful prepay risk, says George, while risk is more contained at MFA Financial (MFA -0.1%).
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT
- Meanwhile, pain for the mortgage REITs in this case means gain for companies that might benefit from the fast pace of mortgage production. Title insurers like First American Financial (FAF +0.7%) and Fidelity National (FNFV +2.1%) come to mind.
Fri, Jun. 24, 10:30 AM
- A sharp drop in long-term rates and vanquished expectations for even one rate hike this year has income players bidding up the prices of utility stocks (XLU +0.7%) and certain REITs even as the major average fall more than 2% post-Brexit.
- A check of Fed Funds futures finds traders not fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike until 2018!
- The mortgage REIT sector (REM +0.5%) welcomes the news, with players like Annaly (NLY +1.7%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.1%), Two Harbors (TWO +1.7%), and Chimera (CIM +1.3%) leading the way. Western Asset Mortgage (WMC -0.8%) is a laggard after slashing its dividend by more than 30% last night.
- Equity REITs are decidedly mixed. Retail names like Realty Income (O +2.4%), National Retail (NNN +2%), and Vereit (VER +0.9%) are higher, as are healthcare players like HCP (HCP +1.2%) and Medical Properties Trust (MPW +0.1). Apartment REITs are mostly lower, as are mall operators like Simon Property (SPG -0.8%) and General Growth (GGP -0.7%).
- The dollar is surging post-Brexit, however, and that's taking a chunk out of the hotel REITs: Hospitality Properties (HPT -1.5%), Sunstone Hotel (SHO -2.7%), LaSalle (LHO -3.8%), Pebblebrook (PEB -2.4%), RLJ Lodging (RLJ -2.5%).
- ETFs: XLU, UTG, IDU, VPU, GUT, BUI, FUTY, RYU, UPW, FXU, PUI, SDP, PSCU, FUGAX, UTLF, JHMU, VNQ, IYR, DRN, RQI, URE, SCHH, ICF, RWR, SRS, RNP, RFI
Tue, Jun. 21, 7:14 AM
- iShares S&P Small-Cap Value ETF (NYSEARCA:IJS) - $0.380.
- iShares Mortgage REIT Capped ETF (NYSEARCA:REM) - $0.274.
- iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (NYSEARCA:IDU) - $0.900.
- iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSEARCA:ITB) - $0.029.
- iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) - $0.998.
- Payable June 27; for shareholders of record June 23; ex-div June 21.
Wed, Jun. 15, 3:20 PM
- Fed Funds futures markets are pricing in just a 50% chance of a rate hike in 2016 after the FOMC stayed on hold in June and cut its expectations for future moves higher in interest rates.
- The mREITs (REM +0.7%) are up just modestly, but all higher now than they were prior to the FOMC news.
- Annaly Capital (NLY +0.6%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.9%), Armour (ARR +1.4%), CYS Investments (CYS +1%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +1.4%), Capstead Mortgage (CMO +1.1%).
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT
Wed, Jun. 15, 7:03 AM
Thu, Jun. 9, 7:12 AM
Wed, Jun. 8, 7:04 AM
Wed, Jun. 1, 7:01 AM
Wed, May 25, 7:02 AM
Wed, May 18, 2:25 PM
- Having repriced over the past few months for a rates lower-for-longer environment, mREITs (REM -1.6%) may have to reprice again as the FOMC minutes more or less signal the central bank's intention to hike rates in June.
- Yield-starved names like banks, insurers, and online brokers are soaring, but income producers like Annaly Capital (NLY -2.7%), American Capital Mortgage (AGNC -2.5%), Armour (ARR -3.1%), CYS Investments (CYS -3.4%), Capstead (CMO -2%), Western Asset (WMC -2.3%), Anworth (ANH -2.3%), and Ellington Residential (EARN -2.4%) are going the opposite way.
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT