The Rubicon Project, Inc.NYSE
The Rubicon Project: A Gem Mispriced In The Ad-Tech Space
Alpha Gen Capital
Alpha Gen Capital
Rubicon Project Trades At A Distressed Multiple With A Strong Balance Sheet, Product And Management
Jim Roumell • 17 Comments
Jim Roumell • 17 Comments
Thu, Nov. 10, 7:15 PM
- Ad-tech firm The Rubicon Project (RUBI +5.8%) says it saw record-breaking video advertising "spend" in the days around the presidential election.
- Election Day itself set a company record for video spend (representing total spend transacted on Rubicon Project platforms), followed by the day after (the second-largest day).
- Those impacts were felt across desktop and mobile, the company says. And mobile in-app video made up 85% of mobile video spend on those days.
- Shares have recovered from a precipitous decline last week, when they slid 15.8% following an earnings miss and news of layoffs. Since then, shares have gained 22.2%.
Wed, Nov. 2, 5:55 PM
- Rubicon Project (RUBI -1.7%) has tumbled in after-hours trading, -9.2%, after releasing Q3 earnings where revenues grew but missed expectations.
- After a "challenging" quarter, the company said it would cut 125 employees (about 19% of the workforce). It will wrap that action and take a pretax charge of about $4M in Q4; the layoffs are expected to reduce costs by $18M/year. It also has implemented non-employee cost cuts coming to an additional $12M/year in savings.
- The company swung to a profit in GAAP terms, and EBITDA grew 22% to $15.3M, beating an expected $10.5M.
- It had cash and liquid assets of $193.2M vs. no debt at quarter's end.
- For Q4, the company's guiding to non-GAAP revenue of $60M-$68M, EBITDA of $10M-$18M and EPS of $0.08-$0.16. For the full year, it sees non-GAAP revenue of $249M-$257M, EBITDA of $59M-$67M, and EPS of $0.86-$0.94.
- Press Release
Wed, Nov. 2, 5:37 PM
Wed, Nov. 2, 4:18 PM
Tue, Nov. 1, 5:35 PM
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Thu, Oct. 6, 9:57 AM
- Rubicon Project (RUBI -2.1%) has named Tom Kershaw its chief product and engineering officer.
- He'll take oversight of product development, platform strategy, product design, prioritization, and go-to-market planning along with the company's engineering capabilities.
- Kershaw has more than 25 years of tech/advertising industry experience, including his most recent position at Google (director of product management for Google Ads and Commerce). He's managed more than $500M in annual revenue businesses in tech-based markets for 15 straight years, Rubicon Project says.
Mon, Sep. 12, 3:00 PM
Mon, Sep. 12, 1:34 PM
- The Rubicon Project (NYSE:RUBI) is off 6.5% and tagging a 52-week low today after a Morgan Stanley downgrade to Underweight.
- Analyst Brian Nowak has an $8 price target vs. today's 52-week low of $8.04, noting worries about the company's managed revenue growth.
- Smaller ad-tech players like OpenX and Index Exchange are pushing for market share with "more competitive offerings and header bidding functionality," while bigger firms like Google and Facebook could take more of a growing pie using scale.
- A turnaround will take time ("multiple quarters of product development, go to market etc.") as the company's managed revenue growth is expected to decelerate from 26% in Q1 to 1% in Q4.
Wed, Aug. 3, 3:00 PM
Wed, Aug. 3, 12:48 PM
Wed, Aug. 3, 12:33 PM
- Rubicon Project (NYSE:RUBI) has nose-dived today, down 32.9% on very heavy volume and touching a new low of $9, as analysts come in with ratings downgrades across the board after the company's downbeat warnings for upcoming quarters.
- The company's on pace for its biggest one-day drop since going public.
- "We were on the wrong side of this one," says RBC Capital's Andrew Bruckner, who cut his rating on RUBI to Sector Perform. The company's beginning a "meaningful business transition since it has encountered the 'perfect storm' of a quicker-than-expected slowdown in desktop display advertising coupled with a faster-than-expected pick up in header bidding." He slashed his price target to $14, from $22.
- Needham pointed to header bidding as well in downgrading shares to Hold: "Despite the reduced revenue guidance, Rubicon is slightly raising its FY16 EBITDA guidance, which at the mid-point is in-line with consensus. However, we are taking a more cautious approach to Rubicon's revenue re-acceleration as a further misstep could weigh on EBITDA margins."
- Citigroup downgraded shares to Neutral and reduced its target to $17, from $26.
- Also dropping ratings to Neutral today: SunTrust Banks, Cantor Fitzgerald, Raymond James, Oppenheimer, and Boenning Scattergood.
Wed, Aug. 3, 9:15 AM
- Gainers: SZMK +45%. KOOL +43%. INVT +26%. GNW +23%. ZAGG +14%. OCLR +12%. FIT +9%. BOFI +8%. ING +8%. TRXC +8%. ETP +7%. FCAU +6%. ETSY +6%. ZTS +6%.
- Losers: RUBI -29%. DRWI -20%. CRAY -20%. VGZ -19%. KATE -18%. CYH -17%. CROX -17%. ELGX -11%. FTAI -9%. QRVO -8%. SHIP -6%. COH -6%. RGC -6%. HBI -6%. KORS -6%. INO -5%.
Tue, Aug. 2, 6:53 PM
- Rubicon Project (RUBI -3.7%) plummeted 19.5% after hours as its Q2 earnings beat was accompanied by a sharp cut to full-year guidance.
- "The digital advertising market is undergoing changes that have fueled headwinds that we expect will continue through the remainder of the year," CEO Frank Addante says, "particularly as it relates to desktop advertising in the U.S."
- That accompanied an outlook for Q3 non-GAAP net revenue of $60M-$64M (below consensus for $70.2M), EBITDA of $9M-$11M (vs. $12M expected) and EPS of $0.07-$0.09, light of consensus for $0.12.
- For the full year, it's forecasting revenues of $260M-$275M (below consensus for $295M); EBITDA of $60M-$68M (vs. $64.5M expected) and EPS of $0.75-$0.85 (below consensus for $0.90).
- In Q2, revenue grew 34% and non-GAAP EPS rose 183% amid strong growth in the company's strategic business drivers: mobile, video and orders.
- Managed revenue (ad spending) rose 13% to $257.4M.
- Press Release
Tue, Aug. 2, 5:41 PM
Tue, Aug. 2, 4:28 PM
Mon, Aug. 1, 5:35 PM
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