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Fri, Dec. 12, 3:27 PM
- Off 3.8% today to $57.68 per barrel, WTI crude oil (USO -3.4%) has tumbled 12% for the week, 16% since Thanksgiving when OPEC couldn't agree on production cuts, and nearly 50% since its peak for the year in mid-June.
- A bear market like this hardly needs an excuse to go lower, but today's cut in estimated 2015 oil demand by the IEA makes for a nice reason.
- Unsurprisingly, the XLE - down 1.3% on the session - is underperforming most sectors and the broad averages.
- On the bright side: The crash in oil prices appears to be boosting consumer sentiment which unexpectedly jumped to its highest level in seven years.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, CRUD, UWTI, USL, DWTI, UHN, DNO, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI, XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Wed, Dec. 10, 12:58 PM
- Energy stocks are slammed across the board as oil prices take another nosedive (I, II), with the losses heaviest on shares of small, U.S.-based oil and gas producers.
- “Financial leverage is being thrown out the window, and everything else is being purged as well,” says Simmons analyst Bill Herbert, who adds that cuts to production budgets in the coming year likely will mean more pain for oil service companies.
- Among the hardest-hit shares: TPLM -15.2%, CRK -12.4%, GDP -11.9%, NOG -9.5%, AREX -8.6%.
- Investors have been less quick to dump shares of integrated oil companies, but today they have been smacked too: XOM -2.8%, CVX -2.9%, COP -2.3%, BP -2%, RDS.A -2.2%, TOT -2.3%.
- Today's worst performers on the S&P 500 include OKE -8.2%, DNR -7.4%, NE -5.6%.
- Service companies also are down: SLB -2.6%, HAL -2.7%, WFT -6.6%, BHI -2%.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, XES, IEZ, PXI, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Mon, Dec. 8, 11:15 AM
- Brent crude slumps to a new five-year lows after Morgan Stanley cut its 2015 Brent forecast, saying prices could average as little as $53/bbl although its base case scenario was for $70; the firm's earlier outlook saw oil at $98.
- "Oil prices face their greatest threat since 2009," analysts Adam Longson and Elizabeth Volynsky say, with Q2 2015 likely marking the peak period of dislocation in the absence of OPEC intervention.
- Brent -3.4% to $66.71, WTI -3.1% to $63.81.
- Energy stocks are getting smashed again, exacerbated by ConocoPhillips' (COP -3.3%) 20% reduction of its 2015 capex plans to $13.5B.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, CRUD, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, PXI, FENY, DWTI, PXJ, DNO, RYE, SZO, FXN, OLO, DDG, OLEM, TWTI
Mon, Dec. 1, 12:21 PM
- Oil prices are rebounding, with both WTI and Brent crude up ~2%, but only a handful of energy stocks are rising.
- Exxon Mobil (XOM +1.4%) and Chevron (CVX +1.3%) are both up more than 1%, but the vast majority of energy stocks - led by Denbury Resources (DNR -8.9%), Newfield Exploration (NFX -7.6%) and Goodrich Petroleum (GDP -22.3%) - are seeing heavy selling.
- The SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE -1.2%) is lower despite gains in XOM and CVX, XLE’s two most heavily weighted stocks, as 38 of its 43 equity components trade lower; the ETF has now lost 7.5% since OPEC sent oil prices plunging by agreeing last Thursday not to cut production.
- Among XLE’s most actively traded components, Kinder Morgan (KMI -3.3%), Halliburton (HAL -3.4%), Transocean (RIG -6.1%) and Schlumberger (SLB -2.1%) are sharply lower.
- Other big decliners include BBEP -17.8%, SD -12.1%, SN -13%, CWEI -8.8%, CPE -14.6%, EXXI -18.9%, LRE -22.8%, REI -16.9%, SSE -15.3%.
- Other ETFs: ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Fri, Nov. 28, 12:52 PM
- "OPEC, like Rockefeller, ultimately damned itself," writes Wolfe Research's Paul Sankey. He doesn't see oil demand ratcheting upwards because of the drop in oil prices; instead, he says, the market will only clear at the point of U.S. supply growth destruction.
- This could take months and a price of around $50 per barrel ... "And then we squeeze radically higher. As a result, the world accelerates its move away from oil."
- "This is going to be volatile, and we can't understand how that helps the Saudis. Volatility sells Teslas."
- WTI crude (NYSEARCA:USO) tried bouncing earlier, but is now lower by 8.5% at $67.43 per barrel. The Energy Select SPDR (XLE -6.6%) is also set to close today's shortened session on the lows.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, DIG, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, CRUD, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, FENY, PXJ, DWTI, DBE, DNO, PSCE, RJN, RYE, SZO, FXN, OLO, JJE, DDG, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Fri, Nov. 28, 7:25 AM
- OPEC yesterday decided to hold production numbers despite the bear market in oil. WTI crude is down about $5 per barrel to $69.
- A premarket look at the top 10 holdings of the XLE: Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) -4.1%, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) -4.1%, Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) -4.6%, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) -4.4%, EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) -4.3%, Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) -4.8%, Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) -4.3%, Haliburton (NYSE:HAL) -4.7%, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) -5%, Williams Companies (NYSE:WMB) -1.6%.
- ETFs: ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, PBW, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, QCLN, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, PSCE, RYE, PUW, FXN, DDG, HECO
Fri, Nov. 14, 3:25 PM
- Crude oil futures jumped on speculation that OPEC may cut its oil production in a bid to stabilize plunging prices; West Texas crude oil rose $1.75, or 2.4%, to $75.90/bbl, bouncing off multiyear lows yesterday.
- The crude oil effect also sparked a reversal in gold prices, which rallied $24.10, or 2.1%, to settle ar $1,185.60/oz., its highest close since Oct. 30; a stronger U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen and the euro also sparked demand.
- ETFs: GDX, NUGT, USO, AGQ, XLE, OIL, DUST, SIL, USLV, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, ZSL, SCO, UGL, GLDX, DGP, XOP, ERY, GLL, DIG, BNO, UGLD, DZZ, DTO, DBO, DUG, SLVO, GLDI, IYE, DSLV, IEO, SLVP, CRUD, DGL, DBS, DGZ, RING, DGLD, SGDM, USL, PXE, UWTI, FENY, PXJ, PSAU, DWTI, DNO, TBAR, USV, RYE, UBG, FXN, GLDE, SZO, GYEN, BAR, OLO, GEUR, BARS, DDG, GGBP, OLEM, TWTI
Thu, Nov. 13, 3:20 PM
- U.S. crude oil prices break below $75/bbl for the first time in more than three years, brushing aside an IEA report showing a surprise 1.735M barrel inventory drawdown as well as remarks by the Saudi oil minister dismissing talk of an oil price war among producers.
- West Texas crude settled today at $74.21/bbl, -3.9% and breaking below an important support level; during the past three years, futures have tested but not broken through that level three times.
- Brent crude recently was trading below $78, -3%.
- Global oil majors are all lower: COP -1.9%, BP -1.4%, CVX -1.4%, XOM -1.1%, TOT -0.9%, RDS.A -0.7%.
- Oil services companies and offshore drillers suffer even sharper drops: SDRL -4.4%, SLB -4.2%, HAL -3.9%, BHI -3.9%, RIG -3.8%, DO -3.5%, NBL -2.9%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, DIG, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, XES, IYE, IEO, CRUD, IXC, IEZ, PXE, USL, UWTI, IPW, FENY, PXJ, UHN, DWTI, DNO, RYE, FXN, SZO, GNAT, OLO, DDG, FILL, OLEM, TWTI
Tue, Nov. 4, 1:10 PM
- An big outlier to the downside in today's session is the energy sector (XLE -2.4%) as crude oil tumbles another 2.5% to a 3-year low of $76.80 per barrel, and brings heating oil and gasoline along with it.
- As comparison, the S&P 500 is down just 0.4%.
- Now off 21% from its all-time closing high on June 23, the XLE is down 5% YTD, making it the only ETF tracking the 10 benchmark S&P sectors to be in the red in 2014 (the S&P 500 is up 8.4%).
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, XOP, DIG, DUG, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, PXE, FENY, PXJ, PSCE, RYE, FXN, DDG
Tue, Oct. 14, 2:43 PM
- In a bear market any news will do, and IEA earlier slashed its outlook for oil demand - with expected growth in 2015 now about 300K barrels per day less than previously estimated.
- WTI crude (NYSEARCA:USO) is down 4.2% to $82.25 per barrel, the weakest print since late-June 2012. As the country moves into heating season, heating oil (NYSEARCA:UHN) - down 3.3% today to $2.47 per gallon - is also at its lowest since the early summer of 2012. The U.S. Gasoline Fund (UGA -3%).
- Carving out a moderate advance, the major averages are getting no help from the energy sector (XLE -0.5%).
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, PXJ, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG
Thu, Oct. 9, 3:25 PM
- Crushed by relentless anxiety about oversupply and weakening global demand, Nymex crude oil futures closed down $1.54 at $85.76/bbl, their lowest close since Dec. 2012, while Brent crude fell below $90/bbl for the first time in more than two years.
- Including today's losses, WTI crude is down 6.2% since the start of the month and Brent has surrendered ~5%.
- In the face of surging output, a move in WTI below its 10-year average at $82 is not out of the realm of possibility, Brown Brothers Harriman says, adding that "a break of $73/barrel could send WTI toward $64, which corresponds with the 2010 low."
- Among big oil names so far today: APC -6.3%, LINE -4.6%, EPD -3.8%, DVN -3.8%, MRO -3.6%, HES -3.8%, KMI -3.7%, TOT -3.5%, STO -3.3%, RDS.A -3.1%, OXY -3%, KMP -3%, XOM -2.6%, COP -2.6%, MUR -2.6%, CVX -2.5%, BP -2.4%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, CRUD, IEZ, PXE, USL, UWTI, PXJ, FENY, DNO, DWTI, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, DDG, OLEM, TWTI
Thu, Oct. 9, 9:56 AM
- Global oil producers open broadly lower as oil prices continue to slide on concerns about high supplies and weak global economic growth (also): RDS.A -2.7%, STO -2.7%, TOT -2.5%, HES -2%, APC -1.7%, BP -1.6%, CVX -1.5%, COP -1%, XOM -0.8%.
- Brent prices slump to $91/bbl, approaching two-year intraday lows, and Nymex crude tumbles to $86.67/bbl to an 18-month intraday low.
- The EIA said yesterday that U.S. crude supplies rose by a more than expected 5% last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly grew as well.
- Barclays is cutting its oil price forecasts: It now sees U.S. crude averaging $85/bbl in Q4 and $89 in 2015, down from previous estimates of $98 in Q4 and $100 next year, and Brent crude averaging $93/bbl in Q4 and $96 in 2015, down from a respective $106 and $107 previously.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, UWTI, PXJ, FENY, DNO, DWTI, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, DDG, OLEM, TWTI
Wed, Sep. 10, 3:28 PM
- Energy stocks, especially refiners, are taking a beating following the latest EIA inventory report that said gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.4M barrels last week, helping send U.S. crude oil futures to 16-month lows (-1.2% to $91.61/bbl) and Brent crude to 17-month lows (-1.1% to $98.02).
- The report is bearish given the large increases in refined product inventories; "even though the crude drawdown was close to expectations, it seemed to disappoint," Again Capital's John Kilduff says.
- The EIA report followed the agency’s updated demand growth report issued yesterday and this morning’s release of OPEC’s report on the oil market; both see lower demand growth this year and next.
- Oil majors are mostly lower: XOM -0.6%, CVX -1.4%, COP -0.3%, but BP (+2.9%) and RDS.A (+1%) are higher.
- Refiners are hit hard: VLO -3.6%, PSX -1.5%, MPC -1.9%, HFC -2.5%, TSO -2.9%, WNR -4.1%, CVI -1.6%, ALJ -1.8%, PBF -3.5%, DK -1.8%, CLMT -1.8%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, PXI, PXJ, DBE, FENY, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, RJN, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, JJE, DDG, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Tue, Sep. 2, 3:25 PM
- The energy sector (XLE -1.3%) is lit up bright red this session as WTI crude oil for October delivery dives 3% to $93.04 per barrel, within a dollar or so of 2014's low price. Also headed south is natural gas, -4.1% to $3.89 per MBtu.
- USO -3%, UNG -4.5%
- The Dow (DIA -0.2%) is the weakest of the major averages, with Dow components Chevron (CVX -1.5%) and Exxon (XOM -1.1%) among the index's worst performers.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, IEO, GASX, PXE, PXJ, FENY, RYE, FXN, DDG
Tue, Jun. 3, 12:45 PM
- EPA chief Gina McCarthy says she expects for significant changes in proposed state emission goals before a final rule is issued next year if the individual states show they can’t meet the targets.
- McCarthy says the agency made changes when developing its rules on mercury pollution in 2012 after utilities complained, and says she "wouldn’t be surprised if we made significant” revisions to the carbon proposal.
- McCarthy notes "confusion" around the targeted 30% emission cuts, saying it’s not a goal of the plan but an estimate of what the EPA thinks can be achieved.
- Coal names are broadly lower: WLT -4.4%, ACI -3.7%, ANR -2%, ARLP -1.9%, CNX -1.3%, CLD -0.3%, BTU -0.2%.
- Big utilities are mostly higher: EXC +1.6%, AEP +1%, NRG +0.7%, D +0.5%, XEL +0.4%, SO +0.3%, PEG +0.2%, NEE +0.1%, DUK -0.2%
- ETFs: XLE, XLU, TAN, ERX, KOL, IDU, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, VPU, DIG, KWT, GASL, DUG, IYE, GASX, PXJ, RYE, FENY, UPW, RYU, FUTY, FXN, FXU, DDG, SDP
Mon, Jun. 2, 3:31 PM
- Walter Energy (WLT -6.3%) shares aren't helped by the coal producer's statement that new EPA proposals aimed at controlling carbon emissions from U.S. power plants should have no material impact on the company; in fact, WLT is down more than peers: CNX +1.1%, BTU +0.1%, CLD -0.3%, ACI -2.8%, ANR -4.6%.
- Long-term losers also will include electric companies that burn lots of coal - such as American Electric Power (AEP +0.1%), Duke Energy (DUK -0.3%), Southern Co. (SO -0.3%) and NRG Energy (NRG -0.1%) - but stiff regulations have been expected for some time.
- Likely winners include companies that pump natural gas and those that use it as their primary fuel, such as Calpine (CPN +0.3%), and companies that operate nuclear plants that generate little carbon but have been expensive to run, such as Exelon (EXC -1%), hope that their aging plants will become more competitive.
- A reduction in coal-fired capacity would increase utilities' demand for natural gas by 3B-10B cf/day from 22B cf/day now, potential benefiting major natural gas producers like Chesapeake Energy (CHK +2.1%), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG -0.8%) and Range Resources (RRC -0.6%).
- ETFs: XLE, XLU, TAN, ERX, KOL, IDU, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, VPU, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, GASX, PXJ, FENY, RYE, UPW, FUTY, RYU, FXN, FXU, DDG, SDP
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