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Dec. 8, 2015, 12:07 PM
- First American Financial's (NYSE:FAF) Real Estate Sentiment Index [RESI] shows title agents believing first-time homebuyers will be most impacted by a potential Fed rate hike.
- They remain bullish on overall housing volumes though, and see rates needing to rise all the way to 5.1% before being negatively impacted.
- As for prices, they expect a gain of 5.7% over the next year, vs. 6.7% guessed at one quarter ago.
- Particularly exposed to first-time buyers are shops like KB Home (NYSE:KBH), PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM), and Ryland (NYSE:RYL).
Nov. 10, 2015, 12:15 PM
- D.R. Horton is up 6.8% after cruising through FQ4 estimates, with orders, backlogs, and closings all up smartly, but prices up only modestly. Pre-tax margin gained 60 basis points to 10.7%, and the company boosted its quarterly dividend by two pennies to $0.08 per share (1% yield).
- Bears might note the beat was helped along by a $17.5M benefit from the company's DTA, but the bulls control the tape today.
- With the major averages in the red, the homebuilder ETF is up sharply, ITB +1.4%. More focused on industry suppliers, the XHB is up 0.4%.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.7%), PulteGroup (PHM +2.4%), Lennar (LEN +1.5%), Ryland (RYL), KB Home (KBH +2.3%), Hovnanian (HOV -0.8%).
- Previously: More on D.R. Horton's FQ4 beat (Nov. 10)
- Previously: D. R. Horton beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (Nov. 10)
Sep. 24, 2015, 6:58 PM
- Rambus (NASDAQ:RMBS) has moved up 6.5% after hours on news it's replacing Ryland Group (NYSE:RYL) in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close on Oct. 1.
- Ryland, which is up 1.5% after hours, is getting acquired by Standard Pacific (NYSE:SPF) in a deal expected to close on that date. Standard Pacific -- which is changing its name to CalAtlantic Group -- is leaving the SmallCap 600 along with Ryland, to join the S&P MidCap 400.
- Meanwhile, the other SmallCap 600 spot will be taken by Helix Energy Solutions (HLX -3.2%), which is leaving the MidCap 400 now that its market cap (about $557M) is "more representative of the small-cap market space." Helix is up 0.3% after hours.
- Previously: Industry eyes Ryland/Standard Pacific merger (Jun. 15 2015)
- Previously: Homebuilders Standard Pacific, Ryland Group agree to merge (Jun. 14 2015)
Sep. 17, 2015, 3:49 PM
- Outperforming alongside the big dividend payers are the homebuilders after the FOMC refrained from hiking rates today, but still all but promises tighter policy before the year is out. The big gains in homebuilders are in contrast to the S&P 500 which is flat.
- The inaction has sparked a major rally in bonds across the curve, with the 10-year yield lower by ten basis points to 2.20% and the two-year yield down a full twelve basis points to 0.68%.
- Earlier today, August housing starts disappointed, and July starts were revised sharply lower.
- Previously: August housing starts disappoint; July revised sharply lower (Sept. 17)
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.2%), Lennar (LEN +1.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +6%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.1%), Ryland (RYL +2.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2%), KB Home (KBH +2%)
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
Aug. 17, 2015, 4:33 PM
- Major stock indexes rebounded from opening declines to finish modestly higher, after a solid housing report showed some strength on a lightly traded Monday.
- Homebuilding stocks paced gainers, including Toll Brothers (TOL +2.3%); Ryland (RYL +2.1%); KB Home (KBH +3.1%), Lennar (LEN +2.7%) and Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC +2.9%).
- The S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 2,102.44; for 2015, it's up 2.12%. The move up came despite a grim reading from New York manufacturing that sent bond yields lower. TLT +0.5%; TBT -0.8%.
- Volumes overall were about 20% below recent average.
- Sector gains were broadly distributed, with a flat energy sector as the laggard. Healthcare stocks performed well, paced by dollar volume leaders Gilead Sciences (GILD +0.7%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +1.1%) and Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) +1.1%.
Jul. 30, 2015, 8:11 AM
- Q2 net income of $42.6M or $0.75 per share vs. $32M and $0.57 one year ago.
- New orders up 7.1% to 2,387 units Y/Y; new order dollars up 6.8% to $813M.
- Backlog up 6.4% to 4,116 units; backlog dollars up 8.3% to $1.4B.
- Average closing price of $351K up 5.4%. Closings of 1,814 units vs. 1,700.
- SG&A expense of 10.9% of homebuilding revenue down 90 basis points.
- Housing gross profit margin of 20.4% down 80 basis points, mostly driven by the mix in closings, as well as an increase in land costs. Sales incentives and price concessions of 6.7% flat from a year ago.
- Previously: Ryland Group beats by $0.03, beats on revenue (July 30)
- RYL flat premarket
Jul. 30, 2015, 8:04 AM
- Ryland Group (NYSE:RYL): Q2 EPS of $0.75 beats by $0.03.
- Revenue of $653.6M (+13.2% Y/Y) beats by $21.42M.
Jul. 22, 2015, 10:36 AM
- In the latest data point signaling the housing recovery has shifted into another gear, the NAR earlier reported a 3.2% gain in the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of existing home sales to 5.49M in June.
- Sales are at their highest pace since February 2007 and are 9.6% above the pace of one year ago.
- The median price of $236.4K is up 6.5% Y/Y and surpasses the peak set in July 2006.
- ETFs: ITB +1.5%, XHB +1.5%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +2%), Lennar (LEN +1.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.9%), Pulte (PHM +2.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Hovnanian (HOV +0.9%), Ryland (RYL +3.1%)
- Previously: Existing home sales rise to fastest pace in eight years (July 22)
Jun. 24, 2015, 9:47 AM
- Lennar is up 4.5% after blowing through estimates, including posting gross and operating margins ahead of previous guidance.
- ITB +1.3%, XHB +0.7%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.7%), Ryland (RYL +0.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.5%), Pulte (PHM +2%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.7%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.5%), Beazer (BZH +1.6%).
- Previously: Lennar in high cotton in FQ2, up 4.7% post-earnings (June 24)
- Previously: Lennar beats by $0.15, beats on revenue (June 24)
Jun. 19, 2015, 10:09 AM
- KB Home CEO Jeffrey Mezger is confident of his company's ability to achieve "measurable year-over-year earnings growth in H2" after reporting new order growth of 33% in units and 38% in dollars in FQ2, and backlog growth of 39% in units and 57% in dollars.
- KB Home is up 6%, leading the ITB +1.4%, and XHB +0.8% even as the major averages slip.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +2.3%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.7%), Lennar (LEN +3%), Ryland (RYL +2%), D.R. Horton (DRI +2.5%), Pulte (PHM +2.5%)
- Previously: KB Home gains following earnings beat (June 19)
- Previously: KB Home beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (June 19)
Jun. 15, 2015, 8:25 AM
- “We’re not going to have 22 publicly traded companies that are significant enough in size to have good liquidity," says John Burns, who heads a homebuilding research firm, predicting more consolidation in the industry.
- Standard Pacific (NYSE:SPF) CEO Scott Stowell - who will be the chief of the combined company: “We’re out in front of what we think will be a wave of consolidation in our industry."
- The two builders have little in the way of overlap, reports the WSJ, as each has its largest operations where the other doesn't, and Standard Pacific is an upscale homebuilder (ASP of $478K), while Ryland (NYSE:RYL) focuses on those of lower cost (ASP of $333K).
- SPF +3% premarket
- Investor presentation and conference call webcast
- Previously: Homebuilders Standard Pacific, Ryland Group agree to merge (June 14)
- ETFs: XHB, ITB
Jun. 14, 2015, 10:24 PM
- California-based homebuilders Standard Pacific (NYSE:SPF) and Ryland Group (NYSE:RYL) announce a merger agreement that would form a single company that would own or control 74K home sites and have a market cap of $5.2B.
- The two companies say they will be building houses in 20 of the top 25 metro areas in the U.S. as a single company, and rank in the top five in market share in 15 of them; they say the merger should result in cost savings of $50M-$70M per year.
- SPF CEO Scott Stowell will become executive chairman of the combined company, while RYL CEO Larry Nicholson will be its CEO.
Jun. 9, 2015, 10:14 AM
- The usually sunny Ara Hovnanian found himself unable to put lipstick on his company's pig of a quarter and the stock is lower by 14.4% in early action (the conference call begins at 11 ET).
- Topping off the poor results, interest rates are back on the rise, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting a new high for the year at 2.44%.
- The other homebuilders are acting as if HOV's issues are company-specific: Toll Brothers (TOL -0.2%), Lennar (LEN -0.2%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI -0.2%), KB Home (KBH -0.8%), Ryland (RYL -0.6%), Standard Pacific (SPF flat).
- ETFs: ITB -0.2%, XHB -0.3%
May 27, 2015, 10:43 AM
- Toll Brothers (TOL -2.8%) managed to beat on the bottom line thanks to lower income taxes, but revenues actually fell from a year ago, while SG&A expense as a percent of revenue climbed 50 bps to 12.6%.
- Hovnanian (HOV -0.8%), Lennar (LEN -0.9%), Ryland (RYL -0.7%), Beazer (BZH -1%), Pulte (PHM -1.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.1%)
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: Toll Brothers reports mixed FQ2; early Q3 returns mixed as well (May 27)
- Previously: Toll Brothers beats by $0.02, misses on revenue (May 27)
May 19, 2015, 9:06 AM
- April housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.14M were up 20% from March, and the strongest pace since the housing collapse began to pick up pace about eight years ago.
- Lennar (NYSE:LEN) +0.85%, PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) +1.15%, KB Home (NYSE:KBH) +1.75%, Ryland (NYSE:RYL) +0.2%, D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) +1.4%, Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) +1.9% premarket.
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: Housing starts jump in April (May 19)
May 15, 2015, 12:18 PM
- The summer pattern for the builders is typically the opposite of the winter "hope trade," says Raymond James, noting the sector has underperformed the S&P 500 in 21 of the last 30 summers, with the average underperformance being 490 basis points.
- Not downgraded is WCI Communities (WCIC +1%), which remains a Strong Buy. "We see a special situation with one of the strongest growth stories in the industry, backed by a deep and highly valuable Florida land base, producing better-than-expected margins while trading at a deep discount (20%+ on most metrics) to its larger cap peers."
- Also not downgraded is D.R. Horton (DHI +0.4%) thanks to its exposure to first-time homebuyers.
- Downgraded, but still an Outperform is Toll Brothers (TOL +1.6%), thanks to the "unsurpassed quality" of its "remarkable land assets."
- Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform: KB Home (KBH +1.8%), Lennar (LEN +0.1%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC), PulteGroup (PHM +1.3%), Standard Pacific (SPF +0.5%), and Ryland (RYL +0.5%).
- Previously: Homebuilders downgraded across the board at Raymond James (May 15)
Ryland Group Inc is a homebuilder and a mortgage-finance company, which consists of five operating segments namelyNorth, Southeast, Texas and West (four geographically determined homebuilding regions); and financial services.
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