Fri, Jul. 1, 3:59 PM
- Gold prices likely will rise in the near to medium term as the market turns to "safe mode,” but a market surplus is expected to drive copper prices lower over the next year or two, Credit Suisse says, also downgrading Southern Copper (SCCO -1.9%) to Underperform from Neutral with a $20 price target, cut from $28.
- Copper prices likely will slip below $2/lb and reach a trough of $1.80/lb by 2018, and will hurt SCCO’s stock valuation, the firm says, even while reaffirming a positive view of the fundamentals behind the stock's investment case.
- Credit Suisse foresees strong copper production at SCCO, with a 5% compound annual growth rate during 2016-21, with the Buenavista expansion expected to be completed by 2017 and Tia Maria ramped up by 2021.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Wed, Feb. 17, 3:34 PM
- Southern Copper (SCCO -3.8%) is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight with a $28 price target at J.P. Morgan, citing the 12% run-up since January which the firm believes limits upside potential.
- While JPM says it continues to like SCCO as a defensive copper play, it points to diminishing balance sheet flexibility, a more conservative stance on growth, higher capex guidance and the end of the successful buyback program as limiting share price gains from premium valuation levels.
- SCCO is curtailing the buyback program as the company's focus will be on preserving cash in response to a $5.6B capex program over the next five years, which JPM says could provide opportunities for top line and margin growth in the future but cause short-term share price uncertainty.
Fri, Jan. 15, 10:34 AM
- Shares in global mining companies face their biggest back-to-back weekly losses in four years after signs of slowing growth in China, plunging oil prices and asset writedowns at BHP Billiton spark a selloff.
- Copper prices hit a six-year low for the fifth time in a week in London, -1.9%, amid worries about China’s economy, and are now down nearly 9% YTD; aluminum, lead, nickel and zinc all fell more than 1%.
- Long-dated “copper prices adjusted for producer country FX are mostly unchanged, which underscores the macro nature of the recent declines,” according to Goldman Sachs.
- "No lasting price recovery appears possible at present, neither on the metal markets nor on the commodities markets in general," Commerzbank says.
- BHP -7.7%, RIO -6.4%, OTCPK:AAUKF -5.7%, VALE -5.5%, FCX -5.4%, OTCPK:GLCNF -4.4%, TCK -4.3%, SCCO -1.1%.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD, NINI, CUPM, LEDD
Dec. 21, 2015, 2:58 PM
- Peru's energy and mines minister says the country's copper output should jump 65% in 2016 to ~2.5M metric tons after the massive Las Bambas project starts operations in February.
- Ongoing talks in communities where protests against Las Bambas turned deadly in September have been positive recently and have not held up the $7.4B project; the mine should produce 250K-300K metric tons of copper in 2016.
- But still-strong local opposition to Southern Copper's (SCCO -1.7%) $1.4B Tia Maria project likely prevent the government from issuing a construction permit for the stalled project, the minister says.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Aug. 31, 2015, 11:25 AM
- Southern Copper (SCCO -2.2%) is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight with a $31.50 price target, cut from $37, at J.P. Morgan, which cuts its 2016 estimates for nickel by 53% to $8,750/ton and for copper by 30% to $4,400/ton because of persistently weaker commodity demand.
- While SCCO has growth potential, given its several brownfield and greenfield projects, the firm thinks investors could get exposure to the same copper growth story at more reasonable prices through its parent company, Grupo Mexico (OTCPK:GMBXF).
Aug. 11, 2015, 11:35 AM
- Commodity metals are getting hammered by China's devaluation, with aluminum trading down nearly 2%, copper prices lower by 2.5% and nickel plunging more than 3.5%.
- Hardest hit of the mining stocks is Freeport McMoRan (FCX -14.1%), which has completely surrendered yesterday's 10.8% surge; shares now are down 72% over the past year and 57% YTD.
- Iron ore miners are sharply lower: BHP -5.5%, RIO -4.2%, VALE -7.8%, CLF -7.3%.
- Steel companies: X -9.7%, MT -5.1%, AKS -5.7%, NUE -2.9%, STLD -3.5%, CMC -4%.
- Also: AA -6%, CENX -4.9%, TCK -8.2%, SCCO -4.9%.
- ETFs: XLB, JJC, XME, SLX, PEO, VAW, COPX, DBB, UYM, CU, IYM, JJN, SMN, JJU, PICK, MATL, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, FXZ, PYZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD
Jul. 7, 2015, 10:23 AM
- Freeport McMoRan (FCX -7.3%) is the S&P 500's worst performer in early trading as copper prices retreat to five-month lows.
- Other global miners of copper, iron ore and other metals also are posting sharp losses: VALE -6.1%, BHP -3.8%, RIO -3.9%, SCCO -4.4%, TCK -6.4%.
- China’s stock market swoon is magnifying investor fears about weaker demand from one of the world’s largest consumers of raw materials.
- Overnight, the S&P, Goldman Sachs and the Bloomberg commodity indexes fell the most since November, and analysts say the worst is yet to come.
- "China's demand stumble comes at an awkward time, just when more and more supply of raw materials is coming on stream in many sectors. No quick fix in sight," says HSBC co-head of Asian economic research Frederic Neumann.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Apr. 28, 2015, 3:45 PM
- Southern Copper (SCCO +3.1%) says local protests against its $1.4B Tia Maria project in Peru might delay its scheduled rollout in 2017.
- SCCO had been expecting a construction permit for the proposed copper mine when rallies calling for its cancellation broke out a month ago, and CFO Raul Jacob says it should receive the permit if government talks under way with local opponents ease tensions.
- Farmers in the southern region of Arequipa are continuing their protests against Tia Maria today after a protester was killed in clashes with police last week.
Apr. 24, 2015, 3:38 PM
- Southern Copper (SCCO +2.7%) reports Q1 earnings of $0.35/share, beating the analyst consensus estimate of $0.29, on revenues that fell 6% Y/Y to $1.27B, below the $1.32B consensus, as copper prices fell.
- Q1 EBITDA declined 16.9% Y/Y to $556.1M, and margin fell from 49.4% to 43.6%.
- SCCO's Q1 copper production rose 8.9% Y/Y to 177.6K tons, and says it expects its copper output to nearly double to 1.15M tons in 2017 from last year.
- Separately, Peru's energy and mines minister says the government could ask SCCO to make additional changes to its $1.4B Tia Maria project after protests turned deadly this week.
Mar. 27, 2015, 11:19 AM
- Southern Copper (SCCO -3.9%) has canceled its $1.4B Tia Maria project amid protests in Peru, the company's head of institutional relations in the country reportedly tells a local radio station.
- Tia Maria has been stalled for the last three years after local residents protested that the mine would hurt water supplies.
- The project was expected to produce 120K metric tons/year of copper over two decades.
Feb. 4, 2015, 12:28 PM
- Southern Copper (SCCO +2.1%) posted a 14% drop in Q4 net earnings to $348M, mainly due to lower prices for copper, but topped the consensus analyst estimate of $297M.
- Q4 EBITDA fell 8.7% to $664M
- Sales were $1.47B in the quarter, down from $1.54B a year earlier; sales for the full year totaled $5.79B, down 2.8% Y/Y, as weaker metal prices offset a 9.7% increase in its copper production.
- FY 2014 production totaled 676.6K metric tons of copper, vs. 617K tons in 2013, while molybdenum production rose 16% to 23.1K tons from 19.9K tons in the prior year.
- SCCO says the $1.2B expansion of its Toquepala mine and its $1.4B proposed mine Tia Maria, both in Peru, should add 220K metric tons of copper and 3.1K tons of molybdenum to its production capacity, and expansion to its Buenavista mine in Mexico is seen adding 308K tons of copper and 4.6K tons of molybdenum to annual production capacity.
Feb. 3, 2015, 10:24 AM
- Copper prices are on track for their biggest gains since September on speculation that China would use stimulus measures to jump-start its economy and boost demand for the metal.
- Rising oil prices and Chinese stimulus speculation “have changed the focus to the upside and the short-covering has done the rest,” says Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, adding that “energy is such a big and important part of the commodity sector, and the somewhat improved sentiment there also helps other” raw materials; aluminum and nickel also are rising to multi-week highs.
- "We’re in this perverse world where bad news is good news,” says BNP Paribas analyst Stephen Briggs, and "a lot of people are thinking China’s going to join the rest of the world and lower interest rates or [offer] some kind of monetary response."
- Raw materials companies are off to a strong start today: FCX +5.8%, BHP +3.9%, RIO +2.4%, VALE +3.9%, SCCO +3.4%.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, JJT, CPER, BOM, RJZ, BOS, LD, BDD, JJM, FOIL, NINI, CUPM
Jan. 23, 2015, 11:18 AM
- Iron ore miners are broadly lower after Goldman Sachs becomes the latest global bank to deliver a dismal outlook for the steel-making ingredient, forecasting an average price of $66/metric ton this year from an earlier estimate of $80.
- Goldman is at least the fifth bank this month to lower estimates, citing rising seaborne supplies and weaker demand growth from China; just last week, Citigroup cut its iron ore forecast to $58 in 2015, down from its earlier $65, and UBS lowered its target to $66 from $85.
- Low-cost expansions likely will continue as major producers are still mining iron ore at a profit, which would expand the global seaborne surplus from 47M tons this year to 260M tons by 2018, Goldman says.
- Iron ore miners: VALE -8%, BHP -3%, RIO -3.6%, CLF -7.6%.
- Copper miners: FCX -2.6%, SCCO -2.4%, TCK -2.6%.
- Steel companies: X -6.3%, MT -7.1%, AKS -3.2%, NUE -1.2%, STLD -3%, CMC -3.8%, TMST -2.4%.
- Earlier: Goldman gives in on mined commodities
Jan. 16, 2015, 5:36 PM
Jan. 14, 2015, 12:39 PM
- Citi cuts price targets for iron ore to $58 for 2015 and $62 for 2016, down from its prior estimates of $65 for both years, and lowers its outlook for thermal and met coal.
- Citi warns its downwardly revised forecast means it now expects earnings for major mining companies will fall by 9%-21% for 2015 and by 3%-16% in 2016.
- Rio Tinto (RIO -2.5%) is the exception, as Citi sees earnings rising 7.1% this year and 10.6% next year due to the company’s greater exposure to the weaker Australian dollar.
- The firm cuts its price target for Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF -7.2%) by 8% to £3.60 from £3.90 and sees earnings falling 21% and 16% respectively in 2015 and 2016.
- Citi says it is still bullish on the sector, but warns that metals and mining companies will only slowly grind higher over the next few years.
- Also: BHP -4.5%, VALE -5%, FCX -12%, SCCO -4.9%, TCK -9.7%, CLF -4.4%, CENX -9.1%, MT -4.2%, X -4.9%, NUE -3.4%, STLD -2.6%, BTU -9.8%, ANR -8.8%, ACI -8.9%.
Jan. 14, 2015, 10:28 AM
- Freeport McMoRan (FCX -10.8%) sinks to a 52-week low as copper prices fall 4.5% to collapse to 2009 levels, though it is off overnight lows after prices were down nearly 9% at one point in London.
- Other big global miners also are sharply lower: SCCO -7.3%, RIO -2.5%, BHP -4.4%, VALE -3.8%, CLF -5.8%.
- Concerns over a supply glut and slowing consumption in China have weighed on copper prices in recent months; copper is often seen as an omen for the global economy because it is used in a wide array of construction and manufacturing activities, so today's precipitous drop explains much of the weakness in global equity markets.
- The iPath Dow Jones UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSEARCA:JJC) is trading so heavily that nearly 60% of the average full-day volume traded in the first 10 minutes this morning.
- ETFs: CPER, CUPM, DBB, BOM, RJZ, BOS, BDD, JJM, RGRI, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
Southern Copper Corp. produces copper, molybdenum, zinc and silver. The company operates its business through the three segments: Peruvian, Mexican Open-Pit, and Mexican Underground Mining Operations. The Peruvian Operations segment includes the Toquepala and Cuajone mine complexes and the... More
Sector: Basic Materials
Country: United States
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