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Nov. 28, 2015, 9:42 AM
- Looking for an edge on when it might be profitable to rotate into small-caps, Nomura quants Joe Mezrich and Adam Gould watch three factors: 1) Their cheapness relative to large-caps; 2) economic uncertainty as measured by the dispersion of earnings estimates for the S&P 500; 3) expectations for economic growth as indicated by the yield curve.
- SInce 1980, the alignment of these factors pointed to small-cap outperformance over the subsequent three months worth an annualized average of 7.6%. Trying the strategy live for two years - long Russell 2000/short Russell 1000 when things look good for small-caps, and the opposite otherwise - has produced a 10% annualized return vs. a passive long position in small-caps which lost 5%.
- The team's signals suggested a good three months for small caps starting in November, and it's already working - the FTSE Russell 2000 is outperforming the Russell 1000 by nearly 300 basis points this month. There's still another two months to get small.
- Source: Bill Alpert in Barron's
- ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, RWJ, URTY, SCHA, TWM, RWM, SRTY, VTWO, SAA, VIOO, SDD, SBB, JKJ, RSCO, TWOK, FYX, EWRS, ZSML, LLSC, SMLL, RYRSX
Sep. 27, 2015, 8:59 AM
- The $8B iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB) fell 4.9% on Friday and 13% for the week - its worst weekly performance since the height of the financial panic seven years ago. Many biotech ETFs eat the same cooking - Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD), Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN), Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB), and Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) among the popular names - and FBT, XBI, and BBP fell in amounts similar to IBB.
- The news flow was relatively quiet late in the week, but Hilary Clinton's promise Monday to clamp down on drug prices set things in negative motion for the momo sector.
- Barron's Chris Dieterich reminds that a flood of biotech IPOs in recent years has filled the small cap universe with these highly speculative names, and biotech now makes up 7% of the iShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSEARCA:IWM). Indeed. The IWM fell 3.7% for the week, nearly tripling the decline of the S&P 500.
- ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, VBK, URTY, SCHA, TWM, IWO, RWM, SRTY, VTWO, RCG, JKJ, VTWG, TWOK, FYX, JKK, EWRS, ZSML, FYC, SMLL, RYRSX
Sep. 10, 2015, 12:39 PM
- The CBEO Russell 2000 Volatility Index has dipped to 26.33, while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIXX) has risen to 26.51.
- Pick your reason, but the fact that small caps tend to do more business at home vs. the more multinational large-caps makes for as good of an excuse as any.
- The upshot, however, is of more import: Those itching to buy protection (or play for a bull market), may want to look at what are now relatively cheap options on the IWM rather than on the S&P 500.
- Source: Barron's
- ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, IJR, VBR, SLY, EES, RWJ, VBK, URTY, SCHA, TWM, RVT, RWM, SRTY, VTWO, SAA, JKL, VXX, UVXY, TVIX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, ZIV, VXZ, VIXM, CVOL, VIIX, XVZ, XXV, XVIX, TVIZ, IVOP, VIIZ, VXUP, VXDN
Aug. 21, 2015, 3:51 PM
- With the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all down about 3%, the small-cap Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) is lower by just 0.75%.
- The outperformance is noteworthy because it's been small caps leading on the way down - falling nearly 11% since a late-June peak, or roughly 500 basis points worse than the S&P 500.
- ETFs: VB, VBR, EES, VBK, SCHA, RVT, JKL, RCG, JKJ, TILT, FYX, FYT, JKK, IESM, VLU, ZSML, FYC
Oct. 15, 2014, 3:08 PM
- Way out in front on the way down, might the Russell 2000 (IWM -0.4%) lead the path back up? An afternoon move higher has the small-cap index down just 0.25% after being off nearly 2%.
- The Dow (NYSEARCA:DIA) has moved 170 points off of its low, now down 1.6%, and the Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ) - lower by nearly 3% at one point - is off just 1.25%.
- Small-cap ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, IWC, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, RWJ, URTY, SCHA, TWM, RWM, SRTY, SAA, DWAS, VTWO, VIOO, SDD, PZI, SBB, FDM, RSCO, JKJ, WMCR, FYX, EWRS, XSLV, TWOK, SMLV, PXSC, CSF
Oct. 13, 2014, 1:33 PM
- Electronic Cigarettes International Group, Ltd. (OTCQB:ECIG) is set for its IPO of 33.3M shares of common stock at a prospective price of $4.50 per share. The firm is selling 28,443,133 shares and selling shareholders are offering 4,890,200.
- The company markets and distributes electronic cigarettes and accessories through over 50K outlets in multiple countries.
- Proforma 2013 financials: Revenues: $113.2M; Gross Profit: $55.5M; Operating Expenses: $48.9M; Operating Income: $6.5M; Net Loss: ($11.4M); Loss Per Share: ($0.11).
- Proforma 1H 2014 financials: Revenues: $48.5M; Gross Profit: $26.8M; Operating Expenses: $57.9M; Operating Loss: ($31.1M); Net Loss: ($10.5M); Loss Per Share: (0.08).
- Actual 1H 2014 financials: Revenues: $15.4M (+862.5%); Gross Profit: $8.2M (+780.1%); Operating Expenses: $92.8M (-999%); Operating Loss: ($84.6M); Net Loss: ($84.5M); Loss Per Share: ($1.23); Quick Assets: $5.6M (+166.7%); Cash Burn Ops: ($10.9M) (-999%).
- The company expects Q3 2014 revenues to be $16M - 17M (pro forma net $22.9M - 24.3M).
- ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, IWC, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, RWJ, VBK, URTY, SCHA, TWM, IWO, RWM, IJT, SRTY, SAA, DWAS, VTWO, SLYG, VIOO, SDD, RZG, PZI, SBB, RSCO, FDM, JKJ, UKK, VTWG, VIOG, WMCR, FYX, EWRS, XSLV, TWOK, SKK, JKK, SMLV, PXSG, FYC, PXSC, CSF
- ETFs: IRY, IXJ (IPO -0.5%)
Oct. 1, 2014, 3:52 PM
- Today's decline in the Russell 2000 (IWM -1.4%) puts it more than 10% below the level hit in March (and in July). The index fell 6% in September alone.
- For the year, the Russell is lower by 6.6% after gaining nearly 40% in 2013.
- As rough as it's been, it's the divergence with large caps which looks like the bigger story - while the small caps have fallen 10% during their correction, the S&P 500 is flat, and only in the last two weeks beginning to move in lockstep with the Russell.
- For the year, the S&P 500 is up 5.4%, about 1,200 basis points ahead of the Russell, and on a year-over-year basis, the S&P's 15% gain is 1,500 basis points faster than the Russell.
- ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, VBR, EES, VBK, URTY, SCHA, TWM, IWN, IWO, RWM, SRTY, VTWO, JKL, JKJ, TILT, UKK, VTWG, FYX, FYT, EWRS, TWOK, SKK, VTWV, JKK, UVT, SJH, IESM, VLU, FYC
Sep. 19, 2014, 2:41 PM
- There's not a lot of action in the large cap averages this session, but the Russell 2000 (IWM -1.1%) continues to shed ground both absolutely and relative to the S&P 500, and has now turned negative for the year - it's lower by 1.1% YTD, ceding about 1000 basis points to the S&P,
- Maybe bearish, but probably bullish for those with a contrarian streak, technicians are starting to warn about the dreaded "Death Cross" - the 50-day moving average moving below the 200-day moving average. Ryan Detrick points out 19 instances since 1988 where the Russell 2000 has completed a Death Cross - it's tended to be bearish in the very short-term, but bullish over longer periods.
- ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, IWC, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, RWJ, URTY, SCHA, TWM, RWM, SRTY, SAA, DWAS, VTWO, VIOO, SDD, SBB, PZI, FDM, JKJ, RSCO, WMCR, XSLV, FYX, EWRS, TWOK, SMLV, PXSC, CSF
Jul. 31, 2014, 7:24 AM
- S&P 500 and DJIA futures are off 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 0.6% and Russell 2000 0.9%, with 51 of S&P 500 companies reporting Q2 results today, including Exxon Mobil, MasterCard, Colgate, and Time Warner.
- Whole Foods, Kraft, and Yum Brands are among those who reported last night and are in the red premarket.
- Europe's Stoxx 50 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) is down 0.9% and Shanghai continued to push higher, closing up 1% overnight.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 2.56% and gold is flat at $1,297 per ounce.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, VOO, PSQ, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, TQQQ, VB, SPXL, QID, RSP, SQQQ, DOG, QLD, DXD, RWL, EPS, UDOW, SCHA, SDOW, DDM, BXUB, QQEW, QQQE, SPLX, SFLA, QQXT, BXUC, JKJ, FYX, SPUU
Jul. 25, 2014, 2:31 PM
- Hammering away at the misconception that it pays to seek active managers in supposedly "less efficient" sectors like small caps, S&P Dow Jones' Philip Murphy finds - even choosing among the top mutual fund share classes - an alarmingly small number of managers failed to beat the benchmarks.
- Starting at the March 2009 bottom and going out five years, only 9 of 139 share classes beat the S&P SmallCap 600 benchmark (that's 5.9% of the starting set).
- Where alpha might be able to be delivered though, is in choosing which benchmark to track. A fund tracking the S&P SmallCap 600 (IJR, VIOO) would have outperformed one tracking the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) by 23% over the 5-year period.
- ETFs: IWM, TZA, IJS, TNA, IWC, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, VBR, EES, RWJ, VBK, URTY, SCHA, TWM, IWN, IWO, IJT, RWM, SRTY, DWAS, SAA, VTWO, JKL, RZV, SLYG, SLYV, VIOO, SDD, PZI, RZG, FDM, SBB, RSCO, WMCR, VIOG, JKJ, VTWG, UKK, TILT, VIOV, FNDA, XSLV, FYX, FYT, EWRS, JKK, TWOK, SKK, VTWV, PXSV, SMLV, UVT, SJH, IESM, PXSC, VLU, FYC, PXSG
Jul. 10, 2014, 7:12 AM
- S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and DJIA (DIA) futures are all off about 0.9% and Russell 2000 (IWM) down 2% as trouble brews in the EU periphery.
- Banco Espirito Santo - Portugal's largest listed bank - is off another 16% as its parent reportedly considers bankruptcy protection unless a deal can be worked out with creditors. Portugal broad market is down another 4.1%, bringing its 7-session slump to 11%.
- Previously: Portugal tumbles on bank worry
- Europe's Stoxx 50 (FEZ) is down 2%, led by Italy (EWI) -2.5% and Spain (EWP) -2.6%.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down four basis points to 2.51% and gold catches a serious bid, up $20 per ounce to $1,344.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, IWM, TZA, TNA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, IWC, UWM, TQQQ, VB, SPXL, QID, RSP, IJR, SQQQ, DOG, SLY, QLD, DXD, RWJ, RWL, URTY, EPS, UDOW, SCHA, TWM, SDOW, DDM, RWM, SRTY, SAA, BXUB, DWAS, VTWO, QQEW, QQQE, VIOO, SDD, SFLA, PZI, FDM, SPLX, QQXT, SBB, BXUC, WMCR, RSCO, JKJ, FYX, XSLV, EWRS, TWOK, SMLV, SPUU, PXSC
Jul. 7, 2014, 1:45 PM
- "Knowingly overpaying never has made sense to me, which I think people are doing," says small-cap fund manager Eric Cinnamond, notable for being up 14.5% at the midway point in 2009 vs. peers' average loss of 27%, but missing out on the bull market of the last three years thanks to his large cash holdings.
- The small cap stocks on his radar are as "expensive as I have ever seen them," he tells the WSJ. "We're just unwilling to overpay with other people's mooney in high-quality, small-cap stocks."
- ETFs: IWM, IJS, TZA, TNA, IWC, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, VBR, EES, RWJ, URTY, SCHA, TWM, IWN, RWM, SRTY, SAA, DWAS, VTWO, JKL, RZV, SLYV, VIOO, SDD, PZI, FDM, SBB, RSCO, WMCR, JKJ, TILT, VIOV, XSLV, FYX, FNDA, FYT, EWRS, TWOK, VTWV, SMLV, PXSV, UVT, SJH, IESM, PXSC, VLU
Jun. 6, 2014, 3:03 PM
- This just in: Continuing to bounce from a tough 10-week stretch which saw the index lose about 10% of its value from the start of March, the Russell 2000 (IWM +0.9%) has turned positive for the year.
- The small cap index, however, continues to trail the S&P 500 which is ahead 5.7% YTD, as well as the Nasdaq, which is up 3.4%.
- ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, EES, VBR, VBK, URTY, SCHA, TWM, IWN, IWO, RWM, SRTY, VTWO, JKL, JKJ, UKK, VTWG, TILT, FYX, FYT, SKK, JKK, EWRS, TWOK, VTWV, UVT, SJH, IESM, VLU, FYC
May 20, 2014, 4:37 PM
- Chicago-based Good Harbor Financial is among the largest ETF portfolio managers and the company in May began to rebalance its $11B U.S. Tactical Core Strategy twice a month instead of once - today marks the first mid-month trade for the portfolio, reports the WSJ.
- Good Harbor's main strategy today, says the Journal, looked to be selling small caps as well as two ETFs tied to the S&P 500 (SPY -0.7%), and volume spiked in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM -1.6%), the ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 (UWM -3%), the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV -0.7%) and the ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO -1.5%).
- Good Harbors was the largest single holder of three of those funds as of the end of March, and the 2nd largest holder of the fourth.
- As it sold the equity ETFs, Good Harbors appeared to be buying two mid-to-long-dated Treasury bond ETFs, the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF +0.3%) and the ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (UST +0.7%), with both having volumes many multiples higher than normal.
- Good Harbors was also a seller of small caps and a buyer of Treasurys in early May, says the Journal, which earlier this year reported traders growing accustomed to waiting for the firm's monthly rebalance.
- ETFs: IWM, IJS, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, EES, VBR, RWJ, VBK, URTY, SCHA, TWM, IWO, IWN, IJT, RWM, SRTY, DWAS, SAA, VTWO, JKL, RZV, SLYG, SLYV, VIOO, SDD, SBB, RZG, JKJ, RSCO, VTWG, UKK, VIOG, TILT, FYX, FNDA, VIOV, XSLV, FYT, SKK, JKK, EWRS, TWOK, PXSV, VTWV, SMLV, UVT, SJH, PXSC, IESM, FYC, VLU, PXSG
May 20, 2014, 10:06 AM
- The Russell 2000 (IWM -1.2%) has returned to leadership as markets move into the red in mid-morning action. The S&P 500 (SPY -0.3%), DJIA (DIA -0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are faring better.
- Among S&P 500 sectors, the retailers are getting hammered, with weak results/outlooks at Dick's and Staples making news today.
- ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, RWJ, URTY, SCHA, TWM, RWM, SRTY, DWAS, SAA, VTWO, VIOO, SDD, SBB, JKJ, RSCO, FYX, XSLV, EWRS, TWOK, SMLV, PXSC
May 15, 2014, 12:40 PM
- Coming in the same week when the Dow and S&P 500 hit new record highs, the Russell 2000 (IWM -1.6%) today tumbled into correction territory, now off 10.2% since its record high hit on March 4.
- The Dow (DIA -1%) and S&P (SPY -1.2%) haven't suffered a correction since 2011 H2, though the Nasdaq fell into correction in November 2012 (the tech index fell nearly 10% from March through mid-April this year, but bounced).
- The question at hand is whether the large-cap averages will follow the Russell. or continue to go their own way to new records.
- Small-cap ETFs: IWM, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, RWJ, URTY, SCHA, TWM, RWM, SRTY, DWAS, SAA, VTWO, VIOO, SDD, SBB, JKJ, RSCO, FYX, XSLV, EWRS, TWOK, SMLV, PXSC
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