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Today, 12:42 PM
Today, 9:15 AM
Yesterday, 5:34 PM
Yesterday, 4:32 PM
- Though SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) beat Q4 revenue and EPS estimates, the company has reported quarterly installations of 272MW (+54% Y/Y), below guidance of 280MW-300MW.
- Moreover, SolarCity expects installations in seasonally weaker Q1 to total 180MW (-34% Q/Q and +18% Y/Y). SolarCity: "This represents a higher-than-usual seasonal slowdown that we have historically experienced after strong fourth quarters largely owing to two reasons. First is the impact of our decision to end Nevada operations in December 2015; NV contributed 23 MW in Q4 2015. It also reflects our renewed focus on our cash conversion cycle, particularly in longer lead-time commercial projects." Q1 EPS guidance of -$2.55 to -$2.65 is below a -$2.36 consensus.
- The company expects installations to "ramp throughout 2016," and is reiterating full-year installation guidance of 1.25GW. SolarCity: "Though the ITC extension certainly provides us with more tailwinds to growth, the primary focus of our company in 2016 is our goal of generating positive cash by year-end ... our guidance still implies over 40% annual growth in 2016."
- Q4 metrics: Deployments +44% Y/Y to 253MW. Cumulative MW deployed +76% to 1.74GW. Cost/watt fell $0.13 Q/Q and $0.15 Y/Y to $2.71. Gross value of MW deployed fell $0.22 Q/Q and rose $0.06 Y/Y to $3.64. Delinquencies of 180+ days remain "comfortably below 1%."
- Financials: Operating lease & system incentive revenue +53% Y/Y to $75.4M. System/component sale revenue +77% to $40.1M.GAAP operating expenses +68% to $227M - sales/marketing spend totaled $128.1M, G&A $76.2M, and R&D $22.8M.
2015 capex totaled $176.6M. SolarCity ended the year with $394M in cash/investments, over $1.2B in PowerCo debt, and over $1.4B in DevCo debt. Solar bonds and convertible debt respectively accounted for $214M and $909M of the DevCo debt.
- SolarCity's Q4 results, shareholder letter (.pdf), slides (.pdf)
- Update (6:36PM ET): The post has been updated to include additional details about SolarCity's Q4. Shares are now down 32.6% after hours to $17.75.
Yesterday, 4:17 PM
Mon, Feb. 8, 5:35 PM
Mon, Feb. 8, 8:02 AM
- Deutsche Bank reiterates its Buy rating on SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) with a $64 price target, stating shares are likely pricing in a worst case scenario.
- Analyst Vishal Shah: The recent five-year extension of the federal Investment Tax Credit for solar could add $30 of incremental equity value, and concerns around SolarCity's availability of capital to achieve 2016 installation targets may be overblown.The company also has sufficient access to tax equity markets and can sell operating assets to achieve growth objectives.
- SCTY -2.9% premarket
Thu, Jan. 28, 3:07 PM
- By a 3-2 vote, the California PUC has upheld the state's solar net metering policy, which credits solar users for electricity delivered back to the grid. New net metering customers will have to pay an interconnection fee, along with charges on power drawn from the grid to support public purpose programs. The PUC will revisit net metering in 2019.
- In stark contrast to December's Nevada PUC ruling, trade group SEIA is quite pleased with California's decision. Investors in top U.S. residential solar installers SolarCity (SCTY +8.4%) and Sunrun (RUN +15.9%) seem happy too. First Solar/SunPower yieldco 8point3 Energy (CAFD +6.7%), which owns a slew of California projects, is also up strongly.
- Earlier: SolarCity jumps as markets/crude prices rally; California ruling on tap
Thu, Jan. 28, 9:55 AM
- SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) is a standout on a good morning for both the Nasdaq (up 1.1%) and energy-related names - WTI crude is up 7.7% to $34.77/barrel amid growing hopes of Saudi/Russian oil production cuts.
- The gains come on a day California's PUC is expected to vote on a final net metering rate plan (previous) for the state's solar installations; California remains by far SolarCity's biggest market. Greentech Media: "So far, we’ve seen little sign that commissioners are going to reconsider the key solar-friendly points of last month’s proposed decision -- namely, retaining retail-rate compensation for customers' surplus solar power and rejecting additional fees for net-metered solar systems." Unlike with December's Nevada PUC ruling, local utilities aren't happy with the California proposal.
- Roth Capital has reiterated a Buy rating and $65 target on SolarCity today, arguing risk/reward is favorable following a major early-2016 decline. The firm cautions it doesn't think SolarCity will be "out of the woods" until the California net metering decision arrives.
- Q4 results are due on the afternoon of Feb. 9. SolarCity plunged three months ago in response to the 2015/2016 installation guidance given with its Q3 results. Since then, post-2016 expectations have grown thanks to the ITC extension.
Fri, Jan. 22, 9:21 AM
Fri, Jan. 22, 9:06 AM
- Believing U.S. solar demand will remain strong through 2020, Barclays' Jon Windhan has launched coverage on SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) with an Overweight rating and $49 target.
- Meanwhile, SolarCity says it has finished its fifth solar asset securitization, and its first securitization of distributed solar loan assets. The deal involves a $185M private placement ($2.89 per watt of solar generation capacity) featuring a 5.81% blended yield, and a 2022 anticipated payment date. S&P has rated the debt BBB (lower medium grade).
- SolarCity ended Q3 with $418M in cash/short-term investments, $878M in long-term debt, $211M in solar bond debt, $796M in convertible debt, and $425M in solar asset-backed notes. Today's news may be soothing recent financing concerns - Bernstein reported last week SolarCity is mulling the direct sale of solar loans, leases, and power purchase agreements at a relatively high 7%-7.5% discount rate.
- SolarCity, hammered in recent weeks along with other solar names, has risen to $34.06 premarket. Nasdaq futures are up 1.7%, and S&P futures 1.4%.
Wed, Jan. 20, 5:26 PM
- Top U.S. residential solar installers SolarCity (SCTY +8.8%) and Sunrun (RUN +15.4%) were among the largest beneficiaries of an afternoon reversal that led the Nasdaq to close down just 0.1% after seeing 3%+ losses earlier in the day. The S&P closed down 1.2%.
- SolarCity and Sunrun are still respectively down 34% and 27% in 2016, hammered during a market rout in which many energy-related names have been among the worst performers as oil tumbled below $30/barrel. Each company's Q4 report is expected in the coming weeks.
- In other news, the campaign to reverse the Nevada PUC's December decision to increase connection fees and cut net metering rates for solar installations continues: Two disgruntled solar users have filed a class-action suit, alleging local utility NV Energy provided false info to regulators. SolarCity (has pulled out of Nevada) issued a fresh PR yesterday blasting the ruling yesterday, and promising Gov. Brian Sandoval and the PUC "will hear more from all of us in the coming days."
Tue, Jan. 19, 3:21 PM
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -2.5%) has made fresh 52-week lows on another rough day for energy stocks in general. WTI crude is down 3.8% to $28.31/barrel - downbeat IEA commentary and concerns about the end of Iranian sanctions could be weighing. The S&P is down 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%.
- A handful of names are seeing much bigger losses than TAN's. The group includes SolarCity (SCTY -13.1%), SunEdison (SUNE -9.3%), SunEdison yieldco TerraForm Power (TERP -8.4%), SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -16.4%), Yingli (YGE -6.9%), Sunrun (RUN -4.5%), and 8point3 Energy (CAFD -5.3%).
- SunEdison opened higher after announcing it had closed the second part of a deal involving the purchase and subsequent sale of a 33% stake in a 567MW solar plant portfolio, but quickly gave back its gains. TerraForm has been downgraded to Neutral by BofA/Merrill. Sunrun has announced the closing of $250M worth of credit facilities to finance U.S. residential solar installations.
- A week ago: Solar stocks fall as energy stocks sell off, oil trades near $30/barrel
Thu, Jan. 14, 12:46 PM
Thu, Jan. 14, 12:28 PM
- "Our understanding is that SCTY is exploring the direct sale of a subset of the solar leases, loans and [power purchase agreements] generated by [its] DevCo going forward to institutional investors such as insurance companies and pension funds," reports Bernstein's Hugh Wynne (Outperform rating, $62 target).
- Wynne adds SolarCity expects the first sale of new solar leases and purchase agreements (PPAs) to close at a 7%-7.5% discount rate, above the 6% rate management has applied thus far when valuing its solar installation portfolio. Thus far, the company has relied on other financing sources, such as tax equity financing and the sale of solar asset-backed notes.
- The first asset sale is expected to involve just 100MW-200MW of leases. Wynne: "We would expect a $150 to $300 million asset sale at a discount rate of 7.5% to take some of the sting out of the bear arguments regarding cash flow and return on capital, but such a transaction would raise uncomfortable questions for bulls as well,"
- SolarCity has tumbled below $38 on a day the Nasdaq and S&P are up 1%. Thanks in part to a market selloff, shares are now down 27% in 2016.
- Separately, a backlash has been growing to the Nevada PUC's recent decision to increase connection charges and lower net metering payments for home and business solar installations, a decision that led SolarCity to pull out of Nevada. VCs and actor Mark Ruffalo are among those to have blasted the PUC's ruling.
Thu, Jan. 14, 9:16 AM
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