Fri, Nov. 13, 12:38 PM
- Beaten-down U.S. residential solar installer Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN) has jumped after posting mixed Q3 results and reporting 55.7MW of solar deployments, up 85% Y/Y on an organic basis and above guidance of 54MW-55MW. Larger rival SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY), which has been hammered after cutting its 2015 solar installation guidance and providing a lower-than-expected 2016 installation forecast on Oct. 29, is also higher.
- Metrics: Sunrun's full-year guidance of 205MW has been reiterated. Bookings rose 54% Q/Qand 115% Y/Y to 94.5MW, creation cost per watt fell 8% Q/Q to $3.75, and pre-tax project value per watt fell 6% Q/Q to $4.70. Estimated nominal contracted payments rose 56% Y/Y to $2.22B, and estimated retained value 53% to $1.37B.
- Financials: Operating lease/incentive revenue rose 47% Y/Y to $31.7M. Solar energy system/product sales rose 48% to $51M. GAAP costs/expenses rose 56% to $145.4M. Over the past 9 months, op. cash flow has been -$71.9M, and $408.9M in payments have been made for the costs of installed solar systems. Sunrun ended Q3 with $279M in cash, $226M in long-term debt, $133M in credit line borrowings, and $109M in solar asset-backed notes.
- Sunrun's Q3 results, PR
Thu, Oct. 29, 4:50 PM
- SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) installed 256MW of solar systems in Q3, +86% Y/Y but slightly below guidance of 260MW. Q4 guidance is for 280MW-300MW of installations (+58%-69% Y/Y). That implies full-year installations of 878MW-898MW, below prior guidance of 920MW-1GW.
- 2016 installation guidance has been set at 1.25GW (+41% Y/Y at the 2015 guidance midpoint). SolarCity: "[W]e are not targeting the same growth rates that have gotten us to our current scale going forward. Specifically it is our goal to achieve positive cash flow by 2016 year-end and be in solid shape prior to the planned ITC [tax credit] expiration in 2017 ... We also expect to announce meaningful reductions to our 2017 cost targets by our next earnings call."
- Metrics: Q3 bookings totaled 345MW, -13% Q/Q and +50% Y/Y; annual growth slowed from Q2's 81%. Customer count rose 13% Q/Q and 77% Y/Y to 298K. Blended installation cost fell to $1.92/watt (near a 2017 goal of $1.90/watt) from $2.13/watt in Q2 and $2.19/watt a year ago; other costs totaled $0.91/watt. Estimated net retained value rose $240M Q/Q to $3.3B. Estimated nominal contracted payments remaining rose $1.2B Q/Q to $8.9B (+115% Y/Y).
- Q4 revenue/EPS guidance: Operating lease/solar systems revenue of $70M-$76M and energy system/component sale revenue of $30M-$32M, implying total revenue of $100M-$108M, below a $117.8M consensus. EPS guidance of -$2.60 to -$2.75 is below a -$2.17 consensus.
- Shares have plunged to $30.92 after hours.
- Q3 results, shareholder letter (.pdf), slides (.pdf)
Thu, Oct. 29, 4:15 PM
Wed, Oct. 28, 5:35 PM
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Fri, Aug. 7, 2:56 PM
- David Einhorn can't be pleased: SunEdison (NYSE:SUNE) is now down 34% since posting mixed Q2 results and reiterating its full-year system delivery guidance on Thursday morning. Fellow U.S. solar play SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) is down 15% over that same span, though its overlap with SunEdison is limited outside of Vivint Solar (about to be acquired by SunEdison).
- Credit Suisse has defended SunEdison amid the plunge, arguing there's “a fundamental disconnect between the stock performance and the ... stellar execution of the organic project development business that exceeded expectations on all metrics, ... increased disclosure to pacify liquidity concerns, and the company making the (right) decision to ensure accretive drop-down economics.”
- During the earnings call (transcript), management was peppered with questions about solar/wind project ROIs, as well as future capital needs and SunEdison's ability to maintain its breakneck growth rate (the result of both internal financing/construction work and M&A). CFO Brian Wuebbels reiterated SunEdison's internal project development ops (i.e. the DevCo) expect to reach cash flow breakeven in 2016, and noted recent capital raises were oversubscribed.
- SunEdison's Q2 results, guidance/details
Wed, Jul. 29, 6:05 PM
- SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) installed 189MW of solar systems in Q2 (168MW residential), +77% Y/Y and above guidance of 180MW. Installations are expected to rise to 260MW in Q3, and total 920MW-1GW in 2015. The company previously guided for 920MW-1GW of deployments. A system is considered installed when construction is finished, and deployed after it passes inspection (typically one to several weeks later).
- Metrics: Bookings rose 81% Y/Y to 395MW, and the customer count rose 21% Q/Q and 86% Y/Y to 262,495. Cost/watt fell 1% Q/Q and 3% Y/Y to $2.91; SolarCity is aiming for $2.50 by 2017. Blended installation cost fell 7% Y/Y to $2.13/watt. Estimated net retained value is up by ~$300M Q/Q to $3.06B. Estimated nominal contracted payments remaining rose 30% Q/Q and 132% Y/Y to $7.7B.
- Financials: Operating lease/system incentive revenue rose 81% Y/Y to $78.3M; Q3 guidance is at $80M-$86M. Energy system/component revenue rose 35% to $18.2M; Q3 guidance is at $26M-$28M. GAAP operating expenses rose 81% Y/Y to $175.7M, with sales/marketing spend rising 103% to $113.2M. SolarCity ended Q2 with $489M in cash, $624M in long-term debt, $796M in convertible debt, $202M in solar bond debt, and $311M in solar asset-backed notes (about to rise).
- Thanks to aggressive spending and installation growth, SolarCity forecasts Q3 EPS of -$2.05 to -$2.15, below a -$1.59 consensus.
- SCTY -0.6% AH to $57.70.
- Q2 results, shareholder letter (.pdf), slides (.pdf)
Wed, Jul. 29, 4:22 PM
Tue, May 5, 5:06 PM
- SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) installed 153MW of solar systems in Q1, +87% Y/Y and above guidance of 145MW. Installations are expected to rise to 180MW (+69% Y/Y) in Q2. Full-year guidance for 920MW-1GW of solar deployments (not the same as installations) is reiterated.
- Q2 revenue guidance of $86M-$92M ($70M-$74M for op. lease and system incentive revenue, and $16M-$18M for system and component sale revenue) is below a $96.8M consensus. EPS guidance of -$1.60 to -$1.70 is below a -$1.48 consensus.
- Q1 bookings totaled 237MW, +15% Q/Q and +74% Y/Y. 27.4K new customers were added, up from Q4's 21.3K and bringing the total count to 217.6K. Estimated contracted payments remaining rose by over $1.1B Q/Q to $6.11B, and retained value forecast by ~$250M to $2.7B.
- Cost/watt was $2.95, up 3% Q/Q (seasonality is blamed) but down 9% Y/Y. A record low cost/watt is expected in Q2; the company is still aiming for $2.50 by 2017. SolarCity ended Q1 with $576M in cash/short-term investments, $479M in long-term debt, $100M in solar bonds, $312M in solar asset-backed notes, and $796M in convertible debt.
- Shares have fallen to $57.90 AH.
- Q1 results, shareholder letter (.pdf), slides (.pdf)
Tue, May 5, 4:37 PM
Wed, Feb. 18, 4:57 PM
- SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) deployed 176MW of solar systems in Q4, +70% Y/Y but below guidance of 179MW-194MW; it blames delays for "a few large commercial projects." The company is maintaining 2015 deployment guidance of 920MW-1GW (up from 2014's 502MW).
- For Q1, SolarCity is providing installation guidance rather than deployment guidance, arguing it gives "a true reflection of our capabilities before the unpredictability around the timing of inspections in between installation and deployment." Q1 installation guidance is at 145MW, a figure said to reflect Northeast seasonality and typical Q1 commercial softness. Q1 EPS guidance of -$1.65 to -$1.75 is below a -$1.25 consensus.
- Q4 bookings totaled 206MW, -11% Q/Q (seasonality is blamed) but +103% Y/Y. 21.3K new customers were added, raising the cumulative count to 189.7K. Estimated contracted payments rose by ~$900M Q/Q to $5B, and retained value forecast by ~$200M to $2.45B.
- Cost/watt fell to $2.86 from Q3's $2.90; SolarCity is aiming to hit $2.50 by 2017. SolarCity plans to begin installing equipment at Silevo's Buffalo solar module plant in Q1 2016, and reach 1GW of capacity by 2017.
- The company ended 2014 with over $640M in cash/investments, $245M in long-term debt, $230M in convertible debt, and $53M in solar asset-backed notes.
- Q4 results, shareholder letter (.pdf), presentation (.pdf)
Wed, Feb. 18, 4:12 PM
Tue, Feb. 17, 5:35 PM
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Mon, Feb. 2, 9:10 AM
Nov. 18, 2014, 11:36 AM
- Under pressure for much of last week, solar stocks are rallying (TAN +4.3%) after SunEdison (SUNE +23.5%) and its TerraForm Power (TERP +29.1%) YieldCo announced they're buying leading wind project developer First Wind for up to $2.4B, and JA Solar (JASO +4%) beat Q3 estimates and upped its full-year cell/module shipment guidance to 3.1GW-3.2GW from 2.9GW-3.1GW.
- Gainers: SCTY +3.9%. SOL +4.5%. TSL +3.7%. YGE +2.7%. JKS +3.4%. HSOL +2.8%. ASTI +6%. DQ +3.2%. RGSE +2.6%.
- SunEdison CEO Ahmad Chatila declares the First Wind deal will double his company's addressable market. Cowen thinks SunEdison "can leverage First Wind’s platform to push into international markets for wind given the potential expiration of the production tax credit for U.S. wind projects."
- Along with its results/guidance, JA announced a $90M buyback; it's good for repurchasing 23% of shares at current levels, if fully used. JA's Q3 gross margin was 15%, -20 bps Q/Q but +370 bps Y/Y. Cell/module shipments rose 15.2% Q/Q and 57% Y/Y to 500.2MW.
Nov. 11, 2014, 12:15 PM
- Newly-public Vivint Solar (VSLR -21.6%) has nosedived after missing Q3 EPS estimates and guiding for Q4 revenue of $5.5M-$6.5M, below a $7.3M consensus. Installations are expected to fall to 45MW-47MW from Q3's 49MW.
- Rivals SolarCity (SCTY -3%) and SunPower (SPWR -3.2%) are following Vivint lower, as are several other solar names. RGSE -6.2%. ENPH -5.7%. CSIQ -2.5%. JKS -2.2%. DQ -4.1%. CSUN -2.7%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Nov. 5, 2014, 4:48 PM
- SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) deployed 137MW of solar systems in Q3, +77% Y/Y but towards the low end of a 135MW-150MW guidance range.
- However, Q4 guidance is for 179MW-194MW of deployments (+81% Y/Y at the midpoint). 2015 deployment guidance has been tweaked to 920MW-1GW from 900MW-1GW.
- SolarCity expects $47M-$52M in Q4 operating lease/systems incentive revenue, and $20M-$24M in system/component sale revenue. Together, that puts revenue above a $66.1M consensus. EPS guidance is at -$1.25 to -$1.35, below a -$1.22 consensus.
- Q3 bookings totaled 230MW, +154% Y/Y. Customers booked rose to 168K from 82K a year ago; however, Q/Q growth slipped to 27K from Q2's 30K. SolarCity is aiming for 1M customers by mid-2018.
- Contracted customer payments rose by $800M Q/Q to $4.1B, and retained value forecast by $400M to $2.2B. Estimated cost per watt fell to $2.90 from Q2's $3.03.
- SolarCity estimates it had a 36% share of U.S. residential solar installations as of Q2, up from a 2013 share of 26%.
- Shares +0.7% AH after initially trading lower.
- Q3 results, shareholder letter (.pdf), presentation (.pdf)
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