Thu, Jul. 16, 5:18 PM
Thu, Jul. 9, 6:15 PM| Thu, Jul. 9, 6:15 PM | Comment!
Mon, Jul. 6, 2:14 PM
- Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR -3.6%) is slammed after SunTrust cut its stock price target to $70 from $95, citing a loss of market share to the likes of Kraft Heinz (KHC), JM Smucker (NYSE:SJM) and Starbuck (NASDAQ:SBUX).
- The firm thinks GMCR will need to address share losses for its company-owned brands sooner rather than later, which will pressure earnings; market share for GMCR-owned brands have dropped to 28% from 35% over the past year and posted a 5% sales decline and 12% volume decline in the most recent four-week period, according to Nielsen, lost to GMCR’s licensed partners which have stronger brands and are promoting their products more than GMCR.
- SunTrust says it does not believe GMCR wants simply to be a contract manufacturer for the industry; GMCR will need to step up promotions in the coming months while working through its higher-cost coffee hedges, which the firm cites as the key reason behind its FY 2015 earnings reduction.
Wed, Jul. 1, 8:21 AM
- J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM) cuts prices on packaged coffee products by an average of 6%.
- The reduced pricing impacts products sold under the Folgers and Dunkin' Donuts brand names.
- Wholesale coffee prices have moderated over the last six months (Robusta chart).
- Related stocks: KRFT, GMCR, DNKN, OTCPK:RBGLY, OTCPK:RBGPF, SBUX.
Thu, Jun. 4, 7:15 AM
- J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM) received a boost to sales in FQ4 from the acquisition of Big Heart.
- Revenue growth by segment: U.S. Retail Coffee -1% to $468.6M, U.S. Retail Consumer Foods -8% to $427.5, International/Foodservice/Natural +6% to $311.9M, U.S Retail Pet Foods $239.1M.
- Sales mix worked in the company's favor in FQ4.
- Price realization added two points of growth during the quarter.
- Marketing costs rate +110 bps to 5.3%.
- Total SG&A expense rate +100 bps to 7.6%.
- Operating income rate -1006 bps to 4.9%.
Thu, Jun. 4, 7:02 AM
Wed, Jun. 3, 5:30 PM
Mon, Jun. 1, 12:49 PM
- Iconic food and beverage brands continue to grow out of favor with U.S. consumers, according to a new report from Rabobank.
- Many Q1 earnings reports tipped off weakness at well-known F&B brands.
- The bank notes that the increasing purchase power of the millennial generation is a major factor in the shift as e-commerce accounts for a higher mix of purchasing.
- A willingness of major retail chains such as Target (NYSE:TGT), Kroger (NYSE:KR), and Costco (NASDAQ:COST) to attempt to differentiate themselves with new concepts and products has also contributed to well-known brands slipping.
- Rabobank thinks major food and beverage players can still show strong growth rates if they are nimble with their strategy and use M&A wisely to catch fresh brands on the upswing.
- Related stocks: K, GIS, CPB, MDLZ, PEP, KO, HSY, SJM, DPS, KRFT, OTCPK:NSRGY, OTCPK:NSRGF.
Fri, May 15, 12:40 PM
- Dan Loeb's Third Point LLC exited its 10M-share Alibaba (BABA - unchanged) position in Q1, after having upped its stake in the Chinese e-commerce giant in Q4. (13F filing)
- The firm also unloaded its 7M-share position in EMC (EMC -0.1%), which confirmed during the quarter it doesn't plan to spin off VMware, and a 4M-share stake in Williams (WMB +1.3%).
- A 3.3M-share stake was taken in Yum Brands (YUM +3.6%), a 900K-share stake in FedEx (FDX +0.7%), a 1.15M-share stake in J.M. Smucker (SJM -0.1%), and a 626K-share stake in McKesson (MCK). Loeb also respectively took 1.6M-share and 3.5M-share stakes in chipmakers NXP (NXPI +0.2%) and Maxim (MXIM +0.4%).
- Stakes were increased in Delta Air Lines, Actavis, FleetCor, and Roper Technologies, and decreased in Amgen, Ally Financial, eBay, Phillips 66, and Anheuser Busch. Interestingly, a modest 90K-share position was taken in top Alibaba rival JD.com (JD -0.8%).
- Meb Faber observes someone tracking Loeb's top 10 picks since 2000 would have obtained a 12.4% annual return since 2000 (504.8% overall), soundly beating the S&P 500's 4.4% (95.4% overall).
Thu, May 14, 11:05 AM
- The National Weather Service forecasts a continuation of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean late into the year.
- The outlook is consistent with a recent statement from across the ocean by the Japanese Meteorological Agency.
- In the past, El Nino conditions have contributed to drought conditions in Central and South America to impact coffee costs for sellers.
- Related stocks: GMCR, SBUX, JVA, SJM, KRFT, DNKN, OTCQB:JAMN.
- Related ETFs: JO
- El Nino Advisory (.pdf)
Mon, Apr. 20, 2:58 PM
- Pet spending in the U.S. is expected to rise 4.4% to $60.59B this year.
- The food category is seen rising 3.5%, while growth of 4.7% is forecast for the supplies and medicine category.
- Sale of premium food weren't broken out, but is seen outpacing the overall industry.
- Related stocks: FRPT, PETM, SJM, PETS.
Thu, Apr. 16, 5:17 PM
Mon, Apr. 13, 1:06 PM
- Wal-Mart's (WMT) strategy to increasing pricing pressure on suppliers is likely to be felt by some consumer products giants.
- Though larger suppliers have more leverage with Wal-Mart than smaller companies, an impact on margins could still be felt.
- Listed below are the estimated annual revenue and percentage of total revenue derived from the Bentonville retail giant for some CPG firms.
- Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG): $12B to mark 14% of total revenue.
- PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP): $8B, 12% of total revenue.
- Kraft Foods (NASDAQ:KRFT): $4.7B, 26% of total revenue.
- Kellogg (NYSE:K): $3.1B, 21% of total revenue.
- Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB): $1.6B, 19% of total revenue.
- J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM): $2.35B, 30% of total revenue.
- Clorox (NYSE:CLX): $1.5B, 26% of total revenue.
- Hillshire Brands (NYSE:TSN): $1.1B, 27% of total revenue.
- Keurig Green Mountain (NASDAQ:GMCR): $799M, 17% of total revenue.
- Energizer (NYSE:ENR): $748M, 17.2% of total revenue.
- Tootsie Roll (NYSE:TR): $129M. 23.7% of total revenue.
- Data compiled by the Cincinnati Enquirer
Thu, Mar. 26, 12:37 PM
- Deutsche Bank thinks 3G Capital will be back in the food sector for a major acquisition faster than some other investment firms anticipate.
- 3G put itself in a stronger position to make a major purchase by not adding debt in the Kraft deal.
- Analyst Eric Katzman sees some food names trading with a premium as the 3G shadow hangs over the sector, while others have downside risk with M&A speculation not making as much sense.
- Premium on: ConAgra (NYSE:CAG), General Mills (NYSE:GIS), Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ), Pinnacle Foods (NYSE:PF), PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP).
- Premium off: Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB), Hershey (NYSE:HSY), Hormel (NYSE:HRL), Kellogg (NYSE:K), J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM).
- Previously: Investors snapping up food stocks (Mar. 25 2015)
- Previously: Beer fallout from Kraft buyout (Mar. 25 2015)
- Previously: Kraft-Heinz merger has a few ETFs on the move (Mar. 25 2015)
Mon, Mar. 9, 7:37 AM
- Wheat prices took a sharp turn lower last week as traders weighed the large amount of global supply versus a tightening of demand in the U.S.
- Prices have recovered a bit today in front of a Department of Agriculture report, but are expected to see more downward pressure.
- The development should bring some relief for food companies as supplying contracts are reworked.
- Related stocks: SJM, FLO, CAG, POST, CPB, GIS, K, PEP, BUD.
- Related ETF: WEAT.
- Wheat daily price wheat chart.
Mon, Mar. 2, 2:34 PM
- Coffee prices are in retreat as extended rain in Brazil and increased production capacity has helped to soothe the market and push up forecasts on output.
- Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicates a sharp drop in bullish bets on coffee as experts now ease off some previous concerns on supply vs. demand.
- Arabica prices are still higher than where they were a year ago.
- There could be a lag factor for many companies to see a benefit from lower coffee commodity costs. Starbucks tipped off during its FQ1 earnings call (transcript) it has 94% of its 2015 coffee needs already priced.
- Arabica coffee price chart
- Related stocks: GMCR, SBUX, JVA, SJM, KRFT, DNKN
- Related ETFs: JO
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