Dane Bowler • 121 Comments
Portfolio Management 101
Mon, Jun. 27, 3:20 PM
- There's plenty of green in the REIT space today, with the IYR off just 0.25% (vs. the S&P 500's 2% decline). Helping is the continuing plunge in interest rates, with the 10-year yield at 1.46% within seven basis points of an all-time low.
- Among the gainers are Realty Income (O +1.7%), National Retail Properties (NNN +1%), Senior Housing (SNH +2.2%), Omega Healthcare (OHI +0.9%), AvalonBay (AVB +1.1%), Kimco (KIM +1.3%), Tanger Factory (SKT +1.9%), and Public Storage (PSA +3.8%).
- Lodging REITs, however, are dependent on a steady stream of overseas tourist money, and the dollar's continued surge vs. everything not named the yen promises to crimp foreign visits. Ashford (AHT -6.6%), Sunstone (SHO -4.8%), LaSalle (LHO -4.1%), Pebblebrook (PEB -4.2%), Chesapeake (CHSP -3.3%), Host (HT -6.7%), DiamondRock (DRH -4.8%), Apple (APLE -2.9%), FelCor (FCH -5.4%).
Jun. 25, 2015, 4:17 PM
- The XLU underperformed again today, losing 0.7% and bringing its year-to-date decline to more than 12%.
- Looking at equity REITs, the IYR dipped another 0.95% and VNQ fell 1%. Both are down about 6% in 2015, and roughly 15% since late January. Some individual names: Spirit Realty (SRC -2.8%), Senior Housing (SNH -1.2%), HCP (HCP -1.4%), American Realty Capital (ARCP -3%), Gramercy Property (GPT -2.8%), Duke Realty (DRE -2%).
- In mortgage REITs, REM lost 0.9% today and is off 7% YTD. Some individual names: American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.2%), Armour (ARR -1%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.9%), Annaly Capital (NLY -0.8%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -1.2%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -1.1%), PennyMac Mortgage (PMT -2.3%), Western Asset Mortgage (WMC -2.7%).
- The 10-year Treasury yield gained three basis points to 2.40%.
- Previously: Sell-side abandoning REITs as rates rise (June 25)
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, RQI, SCHH, ICF, SRS, RWR, RNP, JRS, KBWY, RFI, NRO, DRV, RIT, REK, RIF, FRI, FTY, PSR, DRA, FREL, WREI, IARAX
May 5, 2015, 10:31 AM
- A big move higher in interest rates continues, with the 10-year Treasury yield up another six basis points to 2.20% - roughly the level at which it started the year (it fell as low as 1.65% in early February).
- The move here is small-time compared to what's going on across the pond, as the absurd levels of two weeks ago become somewhat less absurd. Ten-year Bund yields are up to 0.51% from 0.05%. Italian 10-years are up 30 bps today to 1.78%, with a similar move in Spain.
- The IYR is down 1.1%.
- Individual names: Realty Income (O -1.3%), Senior Housing Properties (SNH -1.5%), Medical Properties Trust (MPW -2.4%), Gramercy Property Trust (GPT -1.8%), Equity Residential (EQR -1.4%), AvalonBay (AVB -1.5%), Government Properties (GOV -2.3%), Pebblebrook Hotel (PEB -2%), Eastgroup Properties (EGP -1.6%), American Campus (ACC -1.4%).
- Mortgage REITS (REM -0.6%) are outperforming the equity names: Annaly (NLY -0.7%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.6%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.3%), Invesco (IVR -0.2%).
Mar. 18, 2015, 3:28 PM
- The Fed earlier cuts its forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, and the pace of rate hikes. Alongside, it also lowered NAIRU - the level at which unemployment threatens accelerating inflation.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 13 basis points to 1.92% following the news, sending the board averages to near-1.5% gains, but the strongest names are the equity REITs.
- IYR +2.3%
- National Retail Properties (NNN +3%), Spirit Realty (SRC +3.1%), Senior Housing Properties (SNH +2.1%), Healthcare Trust of America (HTA +2.9%), Equity Commonwealth (EQC +2.7%), Gramercy Property (GPT +3.2%), Post Properties (PPS +3.9%), Aimco (AIV +2.6%), Kimco (KIM +2.8%), DDR Corp (DDR +2.4%), Public Storage (PSA +2%), Government Properties (GOV +1.9%), First Potomac Realty (FPO +3%), Digital Realty Trust (DLR +1.5%), Sunstone Hotel (SHO +2%), Liberty Property (LPT +2.4%), American Campus (ACC +2.5%)
- Previously: Day's biggest news: Fed sharply cuts "normal" unemployment rate (March 18)
- Previously: FOMC drops "patient," but sends dovish signal (March 18)
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, SRS, ICF, SCHH, RWR, KBWY, DRV, REK, FRI, FTY, PSR, WREI, FREL
Feb. 24, 2015, 3:32 PM
- The 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled back beneath 2% amid Janet Yellen's congressional testimony and some weak economic data, but there's no bid for income favorites like equity REITs.
- The iShares DJ U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR -1.9%).
- Realty Income (O -2.9%), National Retail Properties (NNN -2.7%), Senior Housing Properties (SNH -2.2%), Ventas (VTR -3.8%), HCP (HCP -3.6%), Equity Commonwealth (EQC -2.3%), Vornado (VNO -1.9%), Equity Residential (EQR -2.5%), AvalonBay (AVB -2.7%), Simon Property (SPG -1.8%), General Growth (GGP -2.1%), Kimco (KIM -3%), Sovran Self Storage (SSS -2%), Boston Properties (BXP -2%), Hospitality Properties (HPT -2.7%), LaSalle Hotel (LHO -2.8%), Liberty Property Trust (LPT -2.7%), American Campus Communities (ACC -1.7%).
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, SRS, ICF, SCHH, RWR, KBWY, DRV, REK, FRI, FTY, PSR, WREI
Feb. 4, 2015, 11:03 AM
- Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH -3.7%) sells 27M shares (up from a planned 25M) at $22.20 each. The underwriter greenshoe is for another 4.05M shares at that price.
- The immediate use of the proceeds will be to pay down the revolver and help fund pending acquisitions.
Oct. 13, 2014, 4:19 PM
- Both equity and mortgage REITs saw plenty of buying as nearly all of the rest of the market was lit up bright red, and Treasury ETFs signaled a sharp drop in yields when government bonds reopen for trade tomorrow (closed this session for Columbus Day).
- A sampling of equity names: Senior Housing Properties (SNH +1.2%), Medical Properties Trust (MPW +1.4%), Gramercy Property Trust (GPT +1.7%), Equity Residential (EQR +0.7%), Inland Real Estate (IRC +0.9%), Sovran Self Storage (SSS +1.1%), Highwoods Properties Trust (HIW +1%).
- One equity REIT sector in the red along with the rest of the market is lodging amid worsening Ebola fears: Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT -2.9%), Sunshine Hotel Investors (SHO -1.4%), LaSalle Hotel Properties (LHO -1.5%), Summit Hotel Properties (INN -1.5%).
- Mortgage REITs: American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.4%), CYS Investments (CYS +2.2%), Invesco (IVR +1.1%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1.5%), Western Asset (WMC +1.1%).
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, REM, MORL, MORT, DRN, URE, REZ, SRS, RWR, SCHH, ICF, ROOF, DRV, KBWY, RTL, REK, FRI, FTY, PSR, IFNA, FNIO, WREI
Jul. 2, 2014, 7:22 AM
- Citing a preference for more economically-sensitive REIT sectors, Goldman downgrades the Healthcare REIT sector to Neutral from Attractive. Alongside the sector cut, the team downgrades Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI) to Neutral. It's off 1% premarket.
- Among the other names in the sector: HCN, HCP, MPW, HTA, SNH, VTR, LTC, AVIV.
Apr. 16, 2014, 5:37 PM
Apr. 16, 2014, 4:30 PM
- The offering size is 12M shares with underwriter greenshoe of 1.8M shares. The current float is about 188M shares.
- SNH -4.3% AH
Mar. 19, 2014, 12:35 PM
- A check of other REITs externally managed by the Portnoys' Reit Management & Research - and thus possibly activist targets - finds no noticeable reaction to the dissident shareholder victory which likely means the removal of the entire CommonWealth board.
- Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT -1.7%), Senior Housing Properties (SNH), Government Properties Income Trust (GOV -0.4%), Select Income REIT (SIR -0.8%), RMR Real Estate Income Fund (RIF +0.1%). Other companies (not REITs managed by RMR): Five Star Quality Care (FVE -0.3%), TravelCenters of America (TA -1.2%).
Jan. 7, 2014, 8:28 AM
- "We see a company in transition with greater disposition volumes recently announced and changes to its management agreement with RMR, to name a few," says Wells Fargo, cutting Senior Housing Properties (SNH) to a Sell, with the valuation range lowered to $20-$21 from $23-$25. "While several of these changes we view favorably, further asset sales could weigh on the shares as well as limit visibility into cash flow growth in 2014."
- The team notes SNH has had a recent history of hiking its dividend in October, but the date came and went this year without a move.
- Shares -0.7% premarket
- See also: Wells cuts Omega Healthcare to Sell.
Dec. 11, 2013, 3:08 PM
- The equity REITs are particularly weak today as the 10-year Treasury yield heads higher by 4 basis points to 2.85%. Senior Housing (SNH -2.3%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -2.6%), American Realty Capital (ARCP -1.7%), Stag Industrial (STAG -2%), Equity Residential (EQR -1.4%).
- Retail and shopping center/mall REITs also have the weak retail traffic numbers to mull over: Realty Income (O -1.4%), National Retail (NNN -2.8%), Simon Property (SPG -1.4%), General Growth (GGP -2.6%), Kimco (KIM -2.6%), Brixmor (BRX -0.8%).
Jul. 31, 2013, 10:39 AM
- HCP (HCP -2.2%) slips for a 2nd day despite upping guidance in its earnings report as dour earnings call (transcript) comments from CEO Jay Flaherty are digested
- The "pause" button for deals was hit by Bernanke's post-FOMC June comments and the subsequent fixed-income turbulence, says Flaherty, and it remains to be seen how quickly things start moving again.
- Funding costs have gone up, but sellers' expectations of what their properties are worth haven't changed - not a good combination for getting business done.
- Others of note: Senior Housing Properties (SNH -2.2%), Medical Properties Trust (MPW -1.8%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -1.5%).
Jun. 12, 2013, 3:30 PM
Renewed selling also hits equity REITs, with the Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ -1.3%) just holding onto gains YTD; the iShares Real Estate ETF (IYR -1.4%). Among individual stocks, Realty Income (O -1.6%) is off 22% in 3 weeks; Senior Housing (SNH -2.3%), Digital Realty (DLR -4%) American Capital Realty (ARCP -2.1%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -1.7%). Among the best performers is HCP, Inc. (HCP -0.9%).| Jun. 12, 2013, 3:30 PM | 9 Comments
Jun. 7, 2013, 2:45 PM
Similar to a pattern seen a few times over the past few weeks, underneath a solid rally in the averages are big declines in a number of income favorites. The culprit again is falling Treasury prices, the long bond off more than a full point and yielding 3.32%. Some popular equity REITs: Equity Residential (EQR -1.3%), AvalonBay (AVB -1.4%), HCP (HCP -1.6%), Realty Income (O -2.6%), Senior Housing (SNH -2.9%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -1.3%), Government Properties (GOV -2%). Also: Continued rout in mREITs.| Jun. 7, 2013, 2:45 PM | 4 Comments