May 9, 2014, 2:45 PM
- The corn harvest will hit a record 13.935B bushels this year, says the USDA in its latest report, bringing U.S. stockpiles to 1.726B bushels, higher than analyst forecasts. Global stockpiles will jump 8% to 181.7M metric tons thanks in part to big crops in Ukraine and Brazil.
- Analysts were taken by surprise by the big U.S. supply figure given farmer intentions of planting 4M fewer acres than last year, but the USDA is banking on normal weather, seeing the harvest at 165.3 bushels/acre, up 6.5 bushels from a year ago. "These are big, bearish numbers," says a futures broker, but "we still have to go out and produce the crop."
- July corn is off 7 cents to $5.09 per bushel. CORN -2%
- July wheat is off 7.25 cents to $7.28 per bushel after the USDA pegs global inventories at 187.4M metric tons, up from 186.5M for the current season. WEAT -0.8%
- July soybeans are higher by 17.5 cents to $14.87 per bushel after the USDA cuts its stockpile estimate to 130M bushels from 135M. The agency sees production this crop year at 3.635B bushels from 3.289B a year ago. SOYB +0.5%
- ETFs: JJG, GRU
Apr. 29, 2014, 7:15 PM
- U.S. government forecasters predict a more than 65% chance for an El Niño weather phenomenon by the end of the year, a development that threatens to drive up prices for food and other staples.
- El Niño has a reputation for triggering sharp run-ups for prices in markets as diverse as nickel, coffee and soybeans, and commodities investors, traders and analysts are bracing for impact at a time when global supplies of many raw materials already are stretched.
- Global food prices - which at the start of 2014 were expected to be largely flat this year - could easily climb 15% to record highs in as a little as three months after an El Niño occurs, says World Bank economist James Baffes.
- But Société Générale analysts say it is miners, not farmers, who have the most to worry about; since 1991, nickel prices rose the most (13.9%) during El Niño years among commodities the bank tracks.
- ETFs: DBA, CORN, DBC, JO, JJC, RJA, JJG, WEAT, SOYB, DJP, SGG, DBB, COW, NIB, GSG, RJI, CAFE, BAL, GCC, DAG, USCI, JJA, GRU, CHOC, CANE, JJN, RGRA, AGA, JJT, RGRC, CPER, AGF, GSP, BOM, RJZ, JJU, GSC, LSC, FUD, DJCI, USAG, BOS, SGAR, JJM, DEE, BDD, UCI, LD, WEET, UAG, DYY, DIRT, BCM, CMD, DDP, NINI, JJS, CTNN, TAGS, UBC, CUPM, FOIL, UCD, ADZ, RGRI, LEDD, UBM, CMDT, BDG, SBV, USMI, DPU, LSTK, CSCB, GRWN, HEVY, CSCR
Apr. 11, 2014, 6:06 PM
- China’s rejection of genetically modified corn is becoming a big problem for exporters: In the first full tally of the impact, a U.S. grain industry group says the rejected shipments have totaled ~1.45M metric tons, far more than the 545K tons China has reported and the 900K tons that has circulated in news media.
- The rejected shipments have cost grain companies $427M from lost sales and reduced prices for China-bound shipments that must be resold elsewhere, and has affected the price of corn and soybeans, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in losses for farmers.
- Big seed companies such as Syngenta (SYT), Monsanto (MON) and DuPont (DD) generally are aligned with traders such as Cargill and ADM in the desire to grow and sell as much grain as possible, but now the two groups are debating who should bear the costs for the rejected shipments.
- ETFs: DBA, CORN, RJA, SOYB, DAG, JJA, RGRA, AGA, AGF, USAG, FUD, UAG, DIRT, TAGS, ADZ
Mar. 10, 2014, 12:12 PM
- World corn stocks of 158.47MMT is higher than last month's estimate of 157.3 and trade expectations of 156.27. Domestic ending stocks, however, are now placed at 1.456B bushels vs. 1.481 last month and trade expectations of 1.488.
- Domestic bean ending stocks of 145M bushels is down from 150 last month, but ahead of trade expectations for 141. World stocks of 70.64MMT vs. 73.01 previously and forecasts for 71.46.
- Domestic wheat ending stocks of 558M bushels compares to 558M last month and 570M forecast.
- Markets are reading the news as bearish, with corn off a nickel, beans down $0.25, and wheat off $0.02
- CORN -0.25%, SOYB -0.75%, WEAT -1.2%
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU, WEET
Jan. 10, 2014, 12:25 PM
- Corn (CORN +2.6%) moves sharply higher after the latest USDA projection has corn ending stocks at just 1.631B bushels vs. trade expectations for 1.861B. The agency pegs production at 13.93B bushels - few had expected this number to come in below 14B.
- The wheat (WEAT -4.2%) numbers are more bearish however, with ending stocks of 608M bushels vs. expectations of 557M. Winter wheat seedings, though, are less than expected - 41.892M acres vs. 43.501M.
- Soybean (SOYB +0.1%) ending stocks of 150B bushels are about inline with expectations.
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU
Nov. 29, 2013, 12:58 PM
- Soybean prices have outperformed other crops including corn and wheat on the year but may be set to fall in the next 6 months as global production rises 7.3% from last season to a record 286.5M tons, Oil World director Thomas Mielke believes. "Soybeans will be the leader to the downside," he stated at a conference in Hamburg.
- On the demand side, Mielke thinks Chinese buying has supported prices this year (soybean futures having fallen 5.5% this year on the Chicago exchange, vs. a 40% plunge in corn an 14% decline in wheat), leading to a situation in which markets haven't accounted for the increase in supply, particularly from South America, where next season's harvest may jump 9.4% to 158.5M tons.
- A confirmation of Mielke's forecast would be unfavorable for Teucrium Soybean (SOYB -0.7%), an ETF which seeks to track the futures of the 3 soybean contracts. Shares have been largely range bound in 2013, oscillating between $21.50-$26 and currently at $23.48.
Oct. 5, 2013, 8:25 AM
- The U.S. government shutdown and the resulting lack of official statistics are prompting traders to shun agricultural commodities due to concerns about the vacuum of information and fears of a data dump that will hit markets hard when the shutdown ends.
- Likely to fall victim to the shutdown is the USDA's monthly Wasde crop production report, set for Oct. 11, which affects prices of grains and other agricultural commodities around the world.
- Analysts say concerns over a delay could lead to additional short-covering as speculative shorts look to take risk off the table; once the USDA resumes operations, a torrent of backlogged data could trigger a highly volatile reaction.
- ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI, JJG, GRU, CORN, WEAT, SOYB, COW, UBC, JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Sep. 30, 2013, 3:49 PM
- Corn (CORN -2.4%) and Soybeans (SOYB -3.2%) tumble - with corn hitting a 3-year low - after the USDA reports estimated corn stocks of 824M bushels, off 17% from a year ago, but far higher than trade estimates for 687M. Bean stocks are estimated at 141M bushels, also off 17% from a year ago, but 13% above estimates. Stocks still remain low, but these are old crop numbers, and forecasters are looking forward to a big crop this fall.
- Wheat (WEAT -2.7%) stocks of 1.85B bushels were slightly below expectations.
- Lower-than-expected feed usage and export demand were behind the big corn number - high prices had pig farmers substituting corn for wheat.
- Relevant grain ETFs: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA, JJG, GRU.
Sep. 12, 2013, 1:07 PM
- December Corn slides nearly 3% after the USDA revises upward its estimate for ending stocks to 1.855B bushels from last month's 1.837B. Trade forecasts were for 1.739B. Production is lifted to 13.843B bushels from 13.763B last month and trade estimates of 13.641B. The average yield is expected at 155.3 bushels/acre vs. 123.4 last year.
- Beans go green, however, as the USDA cuts it estimate for yields across the Midwest. The agency sees production at 3.149B bushels and ending stocks of 150M after cutting export demand by 20M bushels. "Leaves trade nervous," tweets Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. "USDA too conservative on demand."
- Wheat's reverses an early loss to go flat even as the USDA revises higher its forecast of ending stocks to 561M bushels from 551M.
- Deere (DE -1.1%) got knee-jerked for a few cents on the news release, but looks to be in the process of bouncing back.
- CORN -2.7%.
- JJG, GRU, SOYB, WEAT.
Aug. 26, 2013, 8:05 AM
- Soybeans lead big gains in the grains after the Pro Farmer tour suggests a harvest lower than the USDA prediction and DTN forecasts more hot, dry weather in the Midwest for the next 7-10 days.
- November beans +3.9%, December corn +3.6%, December wheat +1.5%.
- "The market's increasingly getting a bit nervous about the soybean crop," says an agricultural economist with ANZ.
- ETFs of interest: CORN, SOYB, WEAT. JJG, GRU.
Aug. 12, 2013, 12:26 PM
- The grain pits party after the USDA lowers its corn production estimate to 13.76B bushels - still a whopper of a number, but off from 13.95B in July. Ending stocks are cut to 1.837B bushels.
- Bean production is cut to 3.255B bushels from 3.42B as acres planted are cut 500K and yield is lowered to 1.9 bushels/acre.
- No change is made to the wheat production estimate, but 25M bushels of extra exports cuts ending stocks by the same amount.
- December corn erases a sizable early loss, now up $0.15 to $4.69/bushel. CORN +1.5%.
- SOYB +3.4%, WEAT +0.3%.
- Grain ETFs: JJG +1.8%, GRU +2.5%.
- Other related: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Jun. 28, 2013, 1:00 PM
Corn (CORN -3.9%) crumbles after the USDA estimates farmers planted 97.379M acres - the most since 1936 and far ahead of estimates for just 95.431M acres. The number of acres to be harvested, however, fell to 89.135M from 89.5M projected 2 weeks ago, and stocks of 2.764B bushels are below expectations of 2.845B. Bean (SOYB -0.5%) acreage is estimated at about an inline 77.28M acres - the most ever. DBA -1%.| Jun. 28, 2013, 1:00 PM | 10 Comments
Jun. 12, 2013, 12:19 PM
Corn (CORN -1.8%) gives up early gains and turns sharply lower after the USDA estimates 2013/14 ending stocks of 151.8M tons, above the trade estimate of 149.6M. The USDA cut its yield projection by 1.5 bushels to 156.5 bushels/acre, but lower feed usage and no reduction in planted acreage (despite spring delays) has stocks higher. Tyson (TSN +0.9%) and Pilgrim's Pride (PPC +1.9%) cheer the news. The data was bearish for beans (SOYB -1.8%) as well. Grains ETF (JJG -1.3%).| Jun. 12, 2013, 12:19 PM
May 15, 2013, 11:38 AM
Agricultural commodity prices (DBA) could fall a big 13% over the next year, says Goldman, predicting bumper crops across the globe. With weak demand and a record South American harvest (CORN, SOYB, WEAT) already in the books, it would require a major weather shock in the U.S. to keep prices near current levels. Earlier: Deere tumbles as poor weather slows U.S. planting progress.| May 15, 2013, 11:38 AM
Feb. 8, 2013, 3:40 PM
Beans (SOYB -2.6%) tumble as stronger Brazilian production has the USDA upping its forecast for ending stockpiles by a greater-than-expected 1.1% to 60.1M tons. Estimated corn (CORN -0.5%) inventories are raised 5% to a 632M bushels, but it's not enough to send prices lower as the level remains the lowest in the U.S. since 1995.| Feb. 8, 2013, 3:40 PM
Jan. 11, 2013, 12:13 PM
The inaugural midday release of the USDA's January crop report doesn't disappoint, with corn reversing early losses and now sharply green as Dec. 1 stocks come in at 8.03B bushels vs. expectations of 8.21B. Ending stocks are estimated at a slim 602M bushels vs. expectations of 667M. Beans are down after production came in higher than expected. Wheat jumps on lower-than-anticipated planted acres.| Jan. 11, 2013, 12:13 PM
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