What's your position on ?
Why are you ish?
You voted ish on Vote again
Posts appear on the My Feed page of subscribers to this ticker
Aug. 26, 2015, 5:35 PM
Jul. 29, 2015, 9:38 AM
- High expectations are taking a heavy toll on Tableau (NYSE:DATA), as shares tumble in the wake of a Q2 beat and strong Q3/2015 guidance. Shares were up 50% YTD going into earnings, and well over 2x from their August 2014 lows.
- The BI/data visualization software upstart guided on its earnings call for Q3 revenue of $153M-$157M (above a $150.5M consensus) and full-year revenue of $617M-$627M (mostly above a $618.8M consensus). It has a track record of guiding conservatively.
- Top-line metrics: License revenue (drives future maintenance/services revenue) rose 60% Y/Y in Q2 to $96.7M. However, growth slowed from Q1's 74% and Q4's 75%. Maintenance/services revenue rose 76% to $53.1M. Over 3K new customer accounts were added (up from Q1's 2.6K+), and 233 $100K+ deals were closed (down from Q1's 249).
- Financials: GAAP operating expenses rose 75% Y/Y to $151.1M - sales/marketing spend totaled $85.1M, R&D $47.3M, and G&A $18.7M. Tableau ended Q2 with $729.5M in cash, and no debt.
- Machine data analytics leader Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) is following Tableau lower. Though not direct rivals, Tableau and Splunk are both widely seen as plays on big data/analytics growth.
- Tableau's Q2 results, PR
Jul. 10, 2015, 4:15 PM
- "Strategically, we believe this is a smart acquisition," writes FBR's Daniel Ives regarding Splunk's (NASDAQ:SPLK) $190M acquisition of security analytics/threat-detection software vendor Caspida, expressing a common view.
- Ives: "When coupled with Splunk's existing security solutions, the company should have the ability to detect advanced, hidden, and insider threats, improve threat detection with targeted incident response, and increase security operations center (SOC) efficiency. ... with the addition of Caspida, we believe Splunk has another solid upsell/cross-sell opportunity as it penetrates new/existing customers ... adding to what we believe is a healthy pipeline of potential deals for FY16 and beyond."
- Morgan Stanley's Keith Weiss notes Caspida's technology fits with a growing trend towards using probabilistic approaches to analyzing security threats. "With its strong background in data/analytics and the shift in spending we see towards more analytically focused solutions, Splunk remains one of our top plays on the security theme in software."
- William Blair's Bhavan Suri: "We believe Splunk's acquisition of Caspida represents another solid strategic move that further extends the company's technology differentiation vs. the competition, which gives us incremental conviction that it is well-positioned to continue delivering what we view as rare growth metrics."
- Shares rallied to $71.86 today, aided by a 1.5% Nasdaq gain. They're up 22% YTD.
Jul. 9, 2015, 5:28 PM
- Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) is acquiring Caspida, provider of a security software platform that attempts to uncover malware, advanced persistent threats (APTs), and insider threats with the help of machine learning and behavioral analytics. The company is paying $127M in cash, and $63M in restricted shares.
- Splunk, which received about a third of its FQ1 business from security analytics deployments, proclaims pairing its machine data analytics software (used to respond to breaches) with Caspida's offerings (used to detect breaches) will yield an unmatched end-to-end platform.
- The purchase comes amid surging corporate cybersecurity spend following numerous well-publicized breaches. Splunk: "Recent high-profile breaches show virtually all attacks happen with compromised credentials, and automated detection leveraging machine learning is the future for detecting known and unknown threats from insider and external attackers."
- Caspida is expected to contribute to revenue next year. Splunk is affirming its FY16 (ends Jan. '16) revenue, op. margin, and op. cash flow guidance.
Jun. 5, 2015, 2:37 PM
- Though not security pure-plays, Splunk (SPLK +5%), Infoblox (BLOX +4.5%), and A10 Networks (ATEN +4.9%) have joined those companies that are (previous) in rallying after a major federal personnel records hack (believed to originate in China) was disclosed. The Nasdaq is up 0.2%.
- Splunk stated on last month's earnings CC (transcript) security analytics use cases account for about a third of its FQ1 business. The company added it booked its first 7-figure security-only deal during the quarter.
- Infoblox mentioned on its FQ3 CC (transcript) security sales contribute to its 32% Y/Y product growth, and that it performed over 260 security assessments using its internal DNS security solution (up over 60% Q/Q). A10 has seen healthy growth for its Thunder TPS appliances (used to thwart DDoS attacks), as well as for security features attached to its Thunder application delivery controllers (ADCs).
May 29, 2015, 12:20 PM
- Though shares continue to sell off amid a backdrop of high expectations/multiples, sell-side reactions to Splunk's (NASDAQ:SPLK) FQ1 beat and FQ2/FY16 guidance have been largely positive. No upgrades or downgrades have arrived.
- CLSA (Buy) sees plenty of encouraging top-line numbers. "Deferred revenues grew 57% YoY to $305m, bookings of $127m grew 45% YoY ... Enterprise momentum continued to track well as $100k+ deals increased 35% YoY to 226. Security sustained good momentum with triple-digit YoY growth in the Enterprise Security app ... IT operations [software] had a strong 1Q with most large deals having an IT ops component."
- Cowen (Outperform): SPLK remains extremely well positioned to capitalize on Big Data ... recent pricing mechanisms (while not without some risk) should drive more customer acquisition ... Security made up roughly one-third of the co.’s biz. Excluding very large transactions, SPLK was able to double its cloud bookings from just 2 quarters ago."
- Summit Research (Buy): "In our view, the other sell-side shops are overselling the threat of competition ... In private cloud/on premise instances, we believe the competition is extremely limited from the vendors such as Sumo [Logic]. In cloud applications, Sumo could pose some threat to Splunk, but in our view, that is more of a mid-market phenomenon..."
- Piper (Overweight) thinks there might be disappointment with the slight decline seen in billings growth (+45% vs. +47% in FQ4), but dismisses the concerns and predicts growth will re-accelerate in 2H15. Multiple analysts noted Splunk's efforts to grow term license sales relative to perpetual licenses (discussed at length on the CC) serves to understate near-term growth - Atlantic Equities estimates license growth would have been ~95% (instead of 40%) if the term/perpetual mix was at year-ago levels.
- Splunk's results/guidance, details
May 28, 2015, 5:20 PM
- As was the case following its FQ4 beat, high expectations are weighing on Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) following its FQ1 beat and guidance hike: Shares were up 20% YTD going into earnings, and trading at 14.5x the midpoint of the company's increased FY16 sales guidance range (still quite possibly conservative, given Splunk's guidance history).
- Business performance: FQ1 License revenue (drives future maintenance revenue) +40% Y/Y to $71.9M, a slight slowdown from FQ4's 43%. Maintenance/services revenue +55% to $53.8M. 450+ new customers were added, down from 600+ in seasonally strong FQ4 but up from 400+ a year ago, and bringing the total base above 9,500 (inc. 80 of the Fortune 100). With billings outgrowing revenue, the deferred revenue balance rose 57% to $305.3M.
- Financials: GAAP gross margin fell 180 bps Y/Y to 81.6%. Operating expenses rose 43% to $173.6M - sales/marketing spend totaled $101.9M, R&D $44.7M, and G&A $26.9M. Splunk ended FQ1 with $1.04B in cash/investments, and no debt.
- FY16 op. margin guidance of 2%-3% has been maintained. FQ2 guidance is at 1%-2%.
- Shares have fallen to $68.85 AH.
- FQ1 results/guidance, PR
May 28, 2015, 4:05 PM
- Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK): FQ1 EPS of -$0.01 beats by $0.02.
- Revenue of $125.7M (+46.3% Y/Y) beats by $7.49M.
- Expects FQ2 revenue of $138M-$140M, above a $136.4M consensus.
- Expects FY16 (ends Jan. '16) revenue of $610M-$614M, up from prior guidance of $600M and above a $603.6M consensus.
- Shares -1.9% AH.
May 27, 2015, 5:35 PM
May 18, 2015, 1:00 PM
- Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) has named Snehal Antani, formerly the CIO of multiple GE Capital units and before that an IBM exec, its new CTO.
- No word on the status of former CTO Todd Papaioannou, who was appointed in 2013 following the resignation of his predecessor, Erik Swan. For now, Papaioannou's LinkedIn page still lists him as Splunk's CTO.
- Antani will work with products SVP Guido Schroeder and strategy chief Stephen Sorkin to "direct the long-term vision for Splunk technology across Splunk's rapidly expanding cloud, mobile, on-premises and hybrid offerings." He'll report to chairman/CEO Godfrey Sullivan.
- Splunk has sold off towards $67 following the news. Shares had made a new 2015 high of $70.97 on Friday. FQ1 results arrive on May 28.
- Update: Cantor is defending Splunk following the news. The firm considers the CTO change "an upgrade," and expects "stronger trends as the year progresses."
- Update 2: A Splunk spokeswoman tells Seeking Alpha Papaioannou is no longer with the company.
May 7, 2015, 6:05 PM
- Tableau (NYSE:DATA) has followed up on its big Q1 beat by guiding on its CC for Q2 revenue of $135M-$140M (above a $130.9M consensus) and full-year revenue of $600M-$610M (above a $587.7M consensus). Like many fast-growing tech peers, the company has shown a knack for guiding conservatively.
- License revenue rose 74% Y/Y in Q1 to $84.4M, nearly matching Q4's 75% growth. Over 2,600 new customers were added (even with seasonally stronger Q4), and 249 $100K+ transactions were closed. Tableau also states it now has over 2K customers for its cloud-based Tableau Online BI/data visualization platform. Version 9.0 of Tableau's core platform launched last month (previous).
- GAAP operating expenses rose 85% Y/Y to $128.5M - $72.2M was spent on sales/marketing, $41.9M on R&D, and $14.5M on G&A. International revenue rose 89% to $31.7M (24% of total revenue).
- Separately, in attempt to further grow its user base, Tableau has announced premium features for its cloud-based Tableau Public software (used by students, journalists, etc.) are now available for free. Tableau claims 100K+ users for Public.
- Tableau has risen to $105.03 AH. As was the case in February, Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) is getting a lift from Tableau's numbers, rising to $67.30. The machine data analytics vendor's FQ1 report arrives on May 28.
- Tableau's Q1 results, PR
Apr. 17, 2015, 1:46 PM
- Cloud IT service management software leader ServiceNow is down 14.5% after providing soft guidance (thanks in part to forex) to go with a Q1 beat. Many high-beta enterprise tech names are off sharply amid a 1.5% drop for the Nasdaq.
- In addition to Salesforce and Workday (previous), cloud software firms posting big losses include NetSuite (N -4.8%), Constant Contact (CTCT -3.3%), InContact (SAAS -3.9%), Paycom (PAYC -3.6%), Ultimate Software (ULTI -3.6%), and Textura (TXTR -3.7%). NetSuite reports on April 23, Ultimate Software on April 28, Constant Contact on April 30, and Paycom on May 6.
- Big data/analytics software plays have also been hit hard. Tableau (DATA -6.3%), Splunk (SPLK -5.2%), Hortonworks (HDP -6%), and Varonis (VRNS -4.3%) are all off sharply. Though its growth rates and multiples are similar to those of many analytics software firms, ServiceNow generally isn't seen as an analytics play. This morning, D.A. Davidson launched coverage on Tableau and Splunk at Buy, and Hortonworks at Neutral.
- Tableau, which surged yesterday following bullish Stifel and William Blair coverage launches, reports on May 7. Stifel praised Tableau's "superior product performance and simplified user experience," data discovery market lead, international growth potential (less than 25% of license revenue is from outside of North America), and ability to capitalize on "free demo downloads by front-line information workers evangelizing [Tableau's] product." William Blair stated its survey work "indicates that the perceived value of Tableau exceeds that of other self-service [business intelligence] vendors."
- Pac Crest hiked its Splunk target to $82 yesterday after attending a user conference. "[T]he economic value derived from expanding Splunk implementations ... into new areas like security intelligence, compliance and real-time capacity planning results in cost avoidance that can far overshadow the historical pricing objections to Splunk. This is a significant change in customer behavior and pricing perception ... It was clear that the appetite of existing Splunk users to find new use cases remains fierce..."
Apr. 7, 2015, 9:21 AM
- A day after Stephens upgraded Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) to Overweight, Piper's Katherine Egbert has done the same, while setting a $77 target.
- Egbert considers Splunk's valuation more reasonable following the selloff seen in the wake of its Feb. 26 FQ4 report, is pleased with the company's recent reseller deal with major IT distributor Arrow Electronics, and sees the launch of enterprise-wide license agreements (long offered by Microsoft, VMware, Oracle, etc.) acting as a tailwind.
- Shares are up to $62.18 premarket, and have risen 8% since Thursday's close.
Apr. 6, 2015, 1:09 PM
- Stephens has upgraded Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) to Overweight, and set a $70 target. Shares have moved higher after starting the day close to breakeven.
- Splunk remains down 13% from where it traded before soundly beating FQ4 estimates and offering above-consensus FQ1/FY16 guidance (expectations were high). Last month, the company rolled out Splunk Light, a cheaper version of its core machine data/IT operational intelligence analytics platform (Splunk Enterprise) that's aimed at SMBs; monthly pricing ranges from $50-$75/month, depending on the amount of data indexed per day.
Mar. 20, 2015, 7:04 PM
- Looking to cash in on strong investor interest in all things cybersecurity-related, security software/services providers Rapid7, LogRhythm, and Mimecast are each planning 2015 IPOs at $1B+ valuations, Reuters reports.
- Rapid 7 provides incident detection/response and threat management software (a fast-growing area in the wake of major security breaches), along with security advisory services. It has over 3,500 customers, including Amazon and American Express.
- LogRhythm provides software for analyzing log/machine data, file changes, and network sessions for security threats - machine data analytics leader Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) is a rival. Mimecast provides cloud-based e-mail security and archiving tools; its revenue rose 30% in 2014 to $88.4M.
- Earlier this month, Fortune reported Veracode, which provides cloud-based app analysis security tools, has confidentially filed for an IPO and is aiming for a valuation roughly twice that of the $450M assigned in a recent funding round.
- ETF: HACK
Feb. 27, 2015, 4:59 PM
- With shares up 35% in February going into earnings, a big FQ4 beat, above-consensus FQ1/FY16 guidance, and a flood of target hikes and bullish sell-side notes weren't enough to keep Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) from selling off.
- Credit Suisse's Philip Winslow is quite pleased billings rose 47.3% Y/Y in FQ4 (up from 42.4% a year ago), cloud software customers grew 90% Q/Q, and $1M+ and $100K+ deals respectively rose to 39 and 429 from 21 and 289 a year ago. He adds high quota attainment and a 38% Y/Y increase in sales heads "reinforces our belief that upside exists to both guidance and consensus estimates."
- Summit Research's Srini Nandury: "We are increasingly confident Splunk is becoming a platform for unstructured data, akin to Oracle/MS-SQL server platforms, and the rise of Splunk reminds us of the rise of Oracle as a broad platform ... While there are several competitors such as Sumo Logic, Loggly, etc., we believe none of have the use cases and platform functionality as that of Splunk."
- CLSA's Ed Maguire: "New unlimited enterprise pricing should further ease customer adoption even as recurring licenses represented 45% of bookings. With 9,000 customers and at least 70% of quarterly bookings coming from the base, there’s more runway to capture an ever increasing [total addressable market]."
- Those less positive are mostly worried about valuation. Needham and BMO (neutral ratings) each observe Splunk has an enterprise value that's equal to ~11x their respective FY16 sales forecasts.
Splunk Inc provides software products. Its flagship product is Splunk Enterprise and at its core is a proprietary machine data engine, comprised of collection, indexing, search, reporting analysis and data management capabilities.
Other News & PR