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Dec. 3, 2015, 3:02 PM
- The Nasdaq is down 1.7% and the S&P 1.4%, but many solar names still have healthy gains for the day. A rally in oil prices ahead of a Friday OPEC meeting (WTI crude is up 2.9% to $41.10/barrel) could be helping, as might hopes for a new emissions-reduction agreement at the Paris climate conference.
- Heavily-shorted SolarCity (SCTY +3%) is adding to its big Tuesday/Wednesday gains. Beaten-down SunEdison (SUNE +5.3%) is also higher, as are SunPower (SPWR +3.3%), Trina (TSL +4.1%), ReneSola (SOL +3%), Enphase (ENPH +5.4%), and Sunrun (RUN +6.5%).
- ETFs: TAN, KWT
Nov. 17, 2015, 3:28 PM
- SunEdison is down 33% as fears about the solar/wind project developer's balance sheet and cash flow profile continue unabated, and 13F filings indicate many hedge funds pared or liquidated their positions in Q3.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -4.8%) has fallen towards $26; the 52-week low (set in September) is $25.25. The Nasdaq and S&P are down modestly.
- Aside from SunEdison and its YieldCos, notable decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.7%), SunPower (SPWR -7.5%), Enphase (ENPH -11.1%), SolarEdge (SEDG -7.7%), Daqo (DQ -4.3%), and Sunrun (RUN -4.9%). All but Daqo have strong North American exposure.
- SolarCity (SCTY -7.7%) is also off sharply, though Elon Musk has disclosed fresh purchases over the last few days. JA Solar (JASO -2.6%) is lower in spite of posting a Q3 beat and issuing solid Q4 shipment guidance.
Nov. 12, 2015, 9:15 AM
- In tandem its 2015 analyst day, SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) has guided for 2016 revenue (non-GAAP) of $3.3B-$3.5B, above a $3.03B consensus.
- Deployments are expected to rise to 1.7GW-2GW from 2014's 1.15GW-1.18GW, while gross margin is expected to drop to 13%-15% from 23%-24%. Capex is expected to drop to $210M-$240M from $250M-$300M.
- The guidance accounts for planned project sales to SunPower and First Solar's 8point3 Energy YieldCo. SunPower notes gross margin from project sales to 8point3 will be partially deferred beyond 2016.
- In its analyst day slides, SunPower asserts it has a 10GW+ project pipeline (with over 50% involving middle/late-stage projects), and states it's aiming for a 20%-30% installed system cost reduction by 2018. The company aims to ramp panel manufacturing capacity to 4GW/year by 2019 (over 2x 2016 levels), including over 2GW of "low-cost panel technology for emerging markets."
- Shares have risen to $26.50 premarket.
- Analyst day webcast, slides (.pdf)
Nov. 11, 2015, 1:46 PM
- Markets continue to become more risk-averse towards two once-high-flying industries: Solar stocks are adding to the Tuesday losses seen following SunEdison and Canadian Solar's earnings (TAN -2.5%), and 3D printing stocks are taking another leg lower after dropping yesterday in the wake of ExOne's results/guidance. The Nasdaq and S&P are nearly flat.
- Solar decliners: SunEdison (SUNE -15.7%), SolarCity (SCTY -3.9%), SunPower (SPWR -3.5%), SolarEdge (SEDG -13.1%), Vivint (VSLR -10.8%), TerraForm Power (TERP -4%), TerraForm Global (GLBL -4.6%), Sunrun (RUN -2.9%), and 8point3 Energy (CAFD -4.4%). SunEdison, SolarCity, SolarEdge, and TerraForm Power have made new 52-week lows.
- 3D printing decliners: 3D Systems (DDD -6.1%), Stratasys (SSYS -4.7%), ExOne (XONE -5.6%), and Voxeljet (VJET -3.9%). 3D and Stratasys have made new 52-week lows.
- UBS has cut its SunEdison target by $3 to $6. Among other things, it attributes SunEdison's post-earning nosedive to lower-than-expected margins on retained projects, management's plans to push ahead with the Vivint acquisition, and LAP Holdings' plans to seek at least $150M in damages following SunEdison's cancelled acquisition of the company.
- RBC (target cut by $4 to $20) has joined the ranks of firms defending SunEdison (previous), arguing its recent decisions to cut project construction guidance, lower spending, and sell a greater portion of its projects to third parties make sense. It sees the company "progressing towards sustainable growth," while cautioning shares will remain volatile in the near-term. SunEdison is down 34% over the last two days.
Nov. 10, 2015, 11:14 AM
- SunEdison (SUNE -18.9%) has plunged to new multi-year lows after posting mixed Q3 results, cutting its full-year cash available for distribution (CAFD) guidance, and narrowing its full-year project delivery guidance. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.5%) has gone south in spite of beating estimates and providing above-consensus Q4 guidance.
- Solar peers are also off - the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is at its lowest levels since early October. U.S. decliners include First Solar (FSLR -6.2%), SolarCity (SCTY -6%), SunPower (SPWR -6.3%), Enphase (ENPH -8.1%), Solar3D (SLTD -4.6%), SunEdison's TerraForm Power (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo, and SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -3.9%).
- International decliners include Chinese plays Trina (TSL -5.7%), ReneSola (SOL -7.1%), JinkoSolar (JKS -9.2%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%), as well as Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG -6.7%) and SunEdison's emerging markets-focused TerraForm Global (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo.
- “Right now I want the company to become more boring, Boring, and cash-flow generating," said embattled SunEdison CEO Ahmad Chatila on the Q3 earnings call. He reiterated SunEdison expects to build 3.3GW-3.7GW of projects in 2016; the company had once planned to build 4.5GW.
Oct. 28, 2015, 6:58 PM
- In addition to beating Q3 estimates, SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) is guiding for Q4 revenue of $1.25B-$1.3B (above a $1.22B consensus) and full-year EPS of $1.95-$2.05 (above a $1.56 consensus). Full-year EBITDA guidance has been hiked to $475M-$500M from $425M-$475M.
- Q3 Metrics: SunPower recognized revenue on 208MW of solar projects - 74MW for plants, 66MW commercial, and 67MW residential - up from 194M in Q2 and down from 323MW a year ago. MW deployed totaled 293MW vs. 315MW in Q2 and 345MW a year ago. Solar cells produced rose to 361MW from 340MW and 303MW.
- Financials: Q3 power plant revenue totaled $133.2M, commercial $145.9M, and residential $162.3M. Gross margin rose to 17.7% from 17.6% in Q2 and 16.7% a year ago; Q4 GM guidance is at 28%-29%. GAAP operating expenses rose 24% Y/Y to $106.8M. SunPower ended Q3 with $573M in cash, and $778M in debt.
- Q3 results, PR, datasheet (.pdf), slides (.pdf)
Oct. 28, 2015, 5:44 PM
Oct. 28, 2015, 5:06 PM
- SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR): Q3 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.15.
- Revenue of $441.4M (-37.3% Y/Y) beats by $12.52M.
- Shares +4% AH.
Oct. 27, 2015, 5:35 PM
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Oct. 27, 2015, 2:38 PM
- Solar stocks are getting hit hard (TAN -4.7%) as U.S. natural gas falls below $2/MMBtu for the first time since April 2012, WTI crude drops 1.8% to $43.19/barrel, and coal miners Consol Energy and Peabody Energy post disappointing earnings. Many energy stocks are also selling off.
- Beaten-down SunEdison (SUNE -10.4%) is among the biggest solar decliners. As are microinverter maker Enphase (ENPH -12.3%) and inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -8.3%). SunEdison is within $0.50 of a 52-week low of $6.56, and Enphase within $0.20 of a 52-week low of $3.42.
- Other decliners include SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -6.2%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -3.7%), SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -5.5%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -4.8%), which yesterday jumped thanks to a Q3 guidance hike.
- Also on the casualty list are First Solar (FSLR -2.9%), SunPower (SPWR -3.9%), Yingli (YGE -6%), China Sunergy (CSUN -8.2%), and JinkoSolar (JKS -3.9%). SunPower's Q3 report arrives tomorrow, and First Solar's on Thursday.
Oct. 2, 2015, 4:03 PM
- Like various other names clobbered in recent weeks as markets went into risk-off mode, solar stocks posted outsized gains today, with the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) more than erasing its big Monday losses. A rally in energy stocks (aided by higher crude prices) likely helped out. The Nasdaq rose 1.7%, and the S&P 1.4%.
- SunEdison (SUNE +14.7%), which continues trading at a fraction of its June/July highs thanks to debt/cash flow fears and apparent hedge fund selling, was a standout. SolarCity (SCTY +7.3%), which made a high-efficiency panel announcement earlier today, also fared quite well, as did SunEdison buyout target Vivint (VSLR +10.8%), SunEdison YieldCo TerraForm Power (TERP +12.9%), and fellow North American firms Canadian Solar (CSIQ +12.5%), First Solar (FSLR +6.5%), SunPower (SPWR +5.8%), and Enphase (ENPH +11.4%).
- In addition to Daqo, ReneSola, and Yingli (previously covered), Chinese winners included JinkoSolar (JKS +11.6%), Trina (TSL +6.7%), and JA Solar (JASO +5.7%).
Sep. 30, 2015, 6:44 PM
- Initially off following its FQ3 report, 8point3 Energy (NASDAQ:CAFD) has since risen to $10.95. The First Solar/SunPower (FSLR, SPWR) YieldCo still trades well below its $21 June IPO price.
- 8point3 has used its report to declare a $0.157/share prorated (post-IPO) distribution for FQ3, and forecast a $0.22/share FQ4 distribution (up 3.5% Q/Q after adjusting for prorating). Cash available for distribution is expected to rise to $14.8M-$15.2M from FQ3's $6.7M, and GAAP revenue to $4.9M-$5.1M from $3.1M.
- Financials: FQ3 (ended Aug. 31) operating costs/expenses totaled $3.8M, nearly flat with the 3-month period ending Sep. 28, 2014. CAFD ended the quarter with $43.4M in cash, and $297.1M in long-term debt.
- CEO Chuck Boynton: "As of the end of the third quarter 2015, we had 301 MW in production and expect an additional 131 MW of projects to reach commercial operation by the end of the year. Specifically, our 108 MW Quinto project remains on track to reach commercial operation on Oct. 31, 2015 and is already generating test energy prior to commercial operation. Once our initial portfolio reaches commercial operation this year, our assets are expected to generate approximately $70 million in annual CAFD with an approximately 22-year average remaining contract term."
- FQ3 results, PR
Sep. 28, 2015, 1:41 PM
- Solar stocks are among the market's biggest casualties as the Nasdaq (down 2.5%) and energy stocks get battered. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) has made fresh 52-week lows, and is now down 49% from an April peak of $50.00.
- In addition to hedge fund darling SunEdison (down 17.4%, see prior coverage), major decliners include First Solar (FSLR -5.9%), SunPower (SPWR -9.1%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -7.7%), SolarEdge (SEDG -11.1%), Enphase (ENPH -10.3%), Solar3D (SLTD -5.9%), Trina (TSL -9.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS -8.6%), and First Solar/SunPower YieldCo 8point3 Energy (CAFD -7.6%).
- SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -8.5%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -7.8%) are also off sharply, as is SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -8.9%).
Sep. 16, 2015, 10:40 AM
- Three months after SunPower (SPWR +2%) sued SunEdison (SUNE +3.2%) over alleged trade secret theft, a Northern California federal court has granted SunEdison's motion to dismiss the suit, with leave to amend.
- SunPower alleged former employees now working for SunEdison has violated the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA) by stealing proprietary info. Two ex-employees had been accused of taking "dealer information, distribution channel strategy information, market research, sales roadmaps and other highly confidential documents." SunEdison states the court ruled SunPower had "failed to adequately plead a CFAA claim."
- Shares of both companies are higher on a good morning for energy stocks,
Aug. 28, 2015, 5:40 PM
Aug. 25, 2015, 12:34 PM
- The Nasdaq is up 3.4% - a Chinese rate cut is helping - and solar stocks are among the day's standouts. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +7.4%) is now up 14% from a Monday morning low of $25.51, albeit still down 13% from where it traded going into last week.
- Today's gains come after Pres. Obama announced several new incentives meant to boost solar investment. Among them: $1B in additional loan guarantee authority for distributed energy projects, the unlocking of Property-Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) financing for solar installations involving single-family homes, and the creation of a HUD/DOE program to give homeowners "a simple way to measure and improve the energy efficiency of their homes, by increasing homeowners' borrowing power."
- The announcement follows the White House's early-August unveiling of its Clean Power Plan, which aims to cut carbon emissions by 32% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels. Solar still only accounts for less than 1% of U.S. electricity output; renewable sources collectively account for 13%, with hydro responsible for half of the total and wind about a third.
- It also follows the launch of Google's Project Sunroof, which (with the help of satellite imagery) provides would-be home solar installers with advise on installation size and financing options, among other things.
- Major gainers include First Solar (FSLR +8.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS +27.1%), Trina (TSL +17.2%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ +13.2%), SunPower (SPWR +6.6%), JA Solar (JASO +10.6%), China Sunergy (CSUN +12.3%), Yingli (YGE +7.3%), SolarEdge (SEDG +6.9%), and Daqo (DQ +5.9%).
- Cowen has launched coverage on Canadian Solar with an Outperform rating and $28.50 target. Meanwhile, First Solar thin-film module rival TSMC announced today it's shuttering its solar manufacturing ops, while citing a lack of scale/competitiveness.
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