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Fri, Jan. 22, 10:27 AM
- A day after Janney upgraded SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) to Buy, Barclays' Jon Windham has upgraded to Overweight, while hiking his target by $6 to $32 and predicting U.S. solar demand (due to benefit from the recent ITC extension) will remain strong through 2020.
- Coverage has been launched on Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN) with an Overweight rating and $12 target. Larger rival SolarCity (up 4.9%) has been started with an Overweight rating and $49target.
- Though still down strongly in 2016, SunPower and Sunrun have each risen over 20% from respective Wednesday intraday lows of $19.68 and $6.94. The Nasdaq is up 2.3% today.
Thu, Jan. 21, 10:16 AM
- Believing the company's recent selloff spells a buying opportunity, Janney's Michael Gaugler has upgraded SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) to Buy. His target remains $28.
- The upgrade comes after SunPower fell 28% from a Jan. 5 close of $30.46, taking part in a market selloff during which solar stocks (pressured by plunging oil prices and an energy stock rout) were among the worst performers. Q4 results are expected in the coming weeks.
- Two weeks ago: Goldman downgrades SunPower and Sunrun, upgrades First Solar and SolarEdge
Tue, Jan. 12, 2:18 PM
- Solar stocks haven't been unscathed as energy stocks in general see fresh selling pressure. The declines come on a day in which WTI crude is down 4.1% to $30.11/barrel, and Nymex natural gas down 5% to $2.28/MMBtu. The S&P is down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%.
- Beaten-down SunEdison (SUNE -16%), which fell sharply last week after announcing dilutive loan and debt exchange deals, is headlining the list of major decliners. Axiom Capital's Gordon Johnson, pessimistic as ever, declared today he's now "more cautious" on SunEdison's ability to survive 2016, and that the company's yieldco drop-down strategy has unraveled.
- Other notable decliners inclue SolarCity (SCTY -8.1%), SunPower (SPWR -5.1%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -5.7%), SolarEdge (SEDG -7%), Enphase (ENPH -13.2%), Sunrun (RUN -8.7%), and SunEdison's TerraForm Global (GLBL -9.5%) and TerraForm Power (TERP -4.4%) yieldcos.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -2.9%) is down 17% in 2016, and near a 52-week low of $25.25.
Thu, Jan. 7, 2:32 PM
- Solar stocks are among the biggest casualties as the Nasdaq drops 2.8% and markets generally go into risk-off mode. After soaring last month in response to U.S. renewable tax credit extensions, the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is now just slightly over $2 above a 52-week low of $25.25.
- SunEdison (down 33%) is the biggest decliner in the group, after having announced a set of dilutive debt offerings and exchange transactions. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -14.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS -14.6%), Solar3D (SLTD -11.2%), Sky Solar (SKYS -16.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE -10.4%) are also seeing double-digit losses.
- Other major decliners: SolarCity (SCTY -6.8%), First Solar (FSLR -5.5%), SunPower (SPWR -9.9%), Enphase (ENPH -6%), SolarEdge (SEDG -5.3%), TerraForm Power (TERP -8.2%), TerraForm Global (GLBL -5.7%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%).
Tue, Jan. 5, 9:28 AM
- Goldman's Brian Lee has upgraded two solar plays with heavy U.S. exposure - First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) and SolarEdge (NASDAQ:SEDG) - to Buy. And he has downgraded two others - SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) and Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN) - to Neutral.
- Lee expects First Solar ($100 target) to be "a key beneficiary of CA's decision to raise its renewable mandate to 50 percent," as well as of the U.S. ITC extensions that led First Solar and many peers to recently soar. He also touts First Solar's growing international pipeline, and argues its strong balance sheet positions it well to "navigate more selective financing markets and maintain a relatively low cost of capital – while at the same time providing financial flexibility to fund projects off its balance sheet or be opportunistic via M&A to add to pipeline/backlog."
- SolarEdge ($41 target) is deemed "the optimal way to leverage the rooftop solar investment theme given its strong balance sheet and cash flow generation." Lee notes the company gets ~75% of its sales from the U.S. residential market, and thinks energy storage (fueled by a Tesla partnership) could provide 10%-15% EPS upside by 2017, thus making SolarEdge "an early play on the emerging grid batteries investment theme." Meanwhile, fears of ASP pressure (a long-time concern) are considered overdone.
- Lee on SunPower ($35 target): "Following a November 2015 analyst day that focused more on technology differentiation than financial metrics, we see limited catalysts to drive SPWR shares higher compared to other names in our coverage. Further, we await improved disclosures, particularly on the non-GAAP side and visibility into announced p-type module volume expansion in 2016-2017, to become more constructive again." Nonetheless, Lee still likes SunPower's diverse end-market exposure, as well as its healthy balance sheet and ongoing module efficiency gains.
- FSLR +5.3% premarket to $70.23. SEDG +6.1% to $29.70. SPWR -0.2% to $30.29. RUN -2.5% to $10.93.
Dec. 21, 2015, 11:11 AM
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +2.1%) is now up 11% since Congress agreed six days ago to a budget compromise (officially passed on Friday) that involved extending the solar investment tax credit (ITC) and wind production tax credit (PTC). Today's gains come with the Nasdaq up 0.6%.
- U.S. solar stocks naturally continue headlining the list of gainers. The list includes SunPower (SPWR +3.4%), First Solar (FSLR +3.3%), Sunrun (RUN +6.9%), Enphase (ENPH +8%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +4.1%), RGS Energy (RGSE +19.6%), and Solar3D (SLTD +4.5%).
- Other winners include JinkoSolar (JKS +4.7%), ReneSola (SOL +8%), Yingli (YGE +3.5%), China Sunergy (CSUN +4.2%), TerraForm Global (GLBL +3.2%), and SolarEdge (SEDG +3.2%), the last of which depends heavily on the U.S. residential market.
- Citing (what else?) the tax credit extensions, Morgan Stanley's Stephen Byrd has respectively hiked his SolarCity (SCTY -0.3%), First Solar, SunPower, and Sunrun targets by $18, $2, $2, and $5 to $104, $70, $43, and $28. Bernstein and KeyBanc respectively upgraded SolarCity and Sunrun last Thursday.
Dec. 16, 2015, 9:52 AM
- Solar stocks are flying higher (TAN +6.4%) after House Republicans unveiled (as part of a compromise with Democrats that involved lifting a U.S. oil export ban) that would keep the solar investment tax credit (ITC, has been set to expire at the end of 2016) at 30% through 2019, before being phased down through 2022.
- In addition, the wind production tax credit (PTC) would be extended through 2020, albeit with a phase-down from a current level of 2.3 cents per kWh that would start in 2017.
- U.S. solar firms are naturally among the biggest gainers: The group includes SolarCity (SCTY +24.6%), SunEdison (SUNE +17%), First Solar (FSLR +8.5%), SunPower (SPWR +14.3%), Sunrun (RUN +23.1%), TerraForm Power (TERP +8.3%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +5.6%), Solar3D (SLTD +4.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +6.9%). SunEdison/TerraForm also have healthy wind exposure. Enphase (ENPH +29.1%) is soaring on the news and a Roth upgrade to Buy.
- Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG +14.4%), which has strong exposure to U.S. installers, is also surging. Other winners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +8.4%), Trina (TSL +4.9%), JinkoSolar (JKS +7.3%), JA Solar (JASO +3.1%), China Sunergy (CSUN +3.8%), and TerraForm Global (GLBL +5.6%). JA Solar has also been upgraded to Buy by Roth.
Dec. 16, 2015, 9:14 AM
Dec. 14, 2015, 1:41 PM
- Solar stocks are posting big gains (TAN +4.8%) on a quiet day for equities after representatives of 195 countries (including the U.S. and major developing nations such as China and India) reached a deal in Paris to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Coal stocks are going in the opposite direction.
- Also: 1) Oil prices are bouncing after trading near multi-year lows earlier today. WTI crude is up 2.2% to $36.40/barrel. 2) Trina Solar (up 11.4%) has received a preliminary going-private offer at a 21.5% premium to Friday's close.
- U.S. firms SolarCity (SCTY +8.4%), Sunrun (RUN +13.4%), TerraForm Power (TERP +8%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +25%) are among the standouts. Other U.S. gainers include First Solar (FSLR +4.6%), SunPower (SPWR +6.5%) and Vivint (VSLR +2.8%). First Solar tumbled last week in response to its 2016 guidance; SunPower was hit by a $400M convertible offering.
- Among non-U.S. names, gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +4.4%), Yingli (YGE +2.9%), ReneSola (SOL +3.8%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +3.9%). SolarEdge (SEDG +4.6%), based in Israel but with strong U.S. exposure, is also doing well.
- Update: Also possibly helping the group: Congressional Democrats are reportedly open to a deal to lift an oil-export ban in exchange for extending solar and wind tax credits.
Dec. 10, 2015, 1:26 PM
- Down 8.2% yesterday after announcing a $350M offering of convertible notes due 2023, SunPower (SPWR -2.9%) has added to its losses after upsizing the offering to $400M and setting pricing.
- The offering carries a 4% interest rate and a $30.53 initial conversion price (36% above current levels). Net proceeds are expected to total $391.3M, or $415.4M if an overallotment option is fully used.
- Also of note: U.S. solar peer and YieldCo partner First Solar is down 10.2% after issuing mixed 2016 guidance yesterday afternoon. EPS guidance was above consensus, but revenue guidance mostly below, with module shipments expected to rise only slightly Y/Y.
Dec. 3, 2015, 3:02 PM
- The Nasdaq is down 1.7% and the S&P 1.4%, but many solar names still have healthy gains for the day. A rally in oil prices ahead of a Friday OPEC meeting (WTI crude is up 2.9% to $41.10/barrel) could be helping, as might hopes for a new emissions-reduction agreement at the Paris climate conference.
- Heavily-shorted SolarCity (SCTY +3%) is adding to its big Tuesday/Wednesday gains. Beaten-down SunEdison (SUNE +5.3%) is also higher, as are SunPower (SPWR +3.3%), Trina (TSL +4.1%), ReneSola (SOL +3%), Enphase (ENPH +5.4%), and Sunrun (RUN +6.5%).
- ETFs: TAN, KWT
Nov. 17, 2015, 3:28 PM
- SunEdison is down 33% as fears about the solar/wind project developer's balance sheet and cash flow profile continue unabated, and 13F filings indicate many hedge funds pared or liquidated their positions in Q3.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -4.8%) has fallen towards $26; the 52-week low (set in September) is $25.25. The Nasdaq and S&P are down modestly.
- Aside from SunEdison and its YieldCos, notable decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.7%), SunPower (SPWR -7.5%), Enphase (ENPH -11.1%), SolarEdge (SEDG -7.7%), Daqo (DQ -4.3%), and Sunrun (RUN -4.9%). All but Daqo have strong North American exposure.
- SolarCity (SCTY -7.7%) is also off sharply, though Elon Musk has disclosed fresh purchases over the last few days. JA Solar (JASO -2.6%) is lower in spite of posting a Q3 beat and issuing solid Q4 shipment guidance.
Nov. 12, 2015, 9:15 AM
- In tandem its 2015 analyst day, SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) has guided for 2016 revenue (non-GAAP) of $3.3B-$3.5B, above a $3.03B consensus.
- Deployments are expected to rise to 1.7GW-2GW from 2014's 1.15GW-1.18GW, while gross margin is expected to drop to 13%-15% from 23%-24%. Capex is expected to drop to $210M-$240M from $250M-$300M.
- The guidance accounts for planned project sales to SunPower and First Solar's 8point3 Energy YieldCo. SunPower notes gross margin from project sales to 8point3 will be partially deferred beyond 2016.
- In its analyst day slides, SunPower asserts it has a 10GW+ project pipeline (with over 50% involving middle/late-stage projects), and states it's aiming for a 20%-30% installed system cost reduction by 2018. The company aims to ramp panel manufacturing capacity to 4GW/year by 2019 (over 2x 2016 levels), including over 2GW of "low-cost panel technology for emerging markets."
- Shares have risen to $26.50 premarket.
- Analyst day webcast, slides (.pdf)
Nov. 11, 2015, 1:46 PM
- Markets continue to become more risk-averse towards two once-high-flying industries: Solar stocks are adding to the Tuesday losses seen following SunEdison and Canadian Solar's earnings (TAN -2.5%), and 3D printing stocks are taking another leg lower after dropping yesterday in the wake of ExOne's results/guidance. The Nasdaq and S&P are nearly flat.
- Solar decliners: SunEdison (SUNE -15.7%), SolarCity (SCTY -3.9%), SunPower (SPWR -3.5%), SolarEdge (SEDG -13.1%), Vivint (VSLR -10.8%), TerraForm Power (TERP -4%), TerraForm Global (GLBL -4.6%), Sunrun (RUN -2.9%), and 8point3 Energy (CAFD -4.4%). SunEdison, SolarCity, SolarEdge, and TerraForm Power have made new 52-week lows.
- 3D printing decliners: 3D Systems (DDD -6.1%), Stratasys (SSYS -4.7%), ExOne (XONE -5.6%), and Voxeljet (VJET -3.9%). 3D and Stratasys have made new 52-week lows.
- UBS has cut its SunEdison target by $3 to $6. Among other things, it attributes SunEdison's post-earning nosedive to lower-than-expected margins on retained projects, management's plans to push ahead with the Vivint acquisition, and LAP Holdings' plans to seek at least $150M in damages following SunEdison's cancelled acquisition of the company.
- RBC (target cut by $4 to $20) has joined the ranks of firms defending SunEdison (previous), arguing its recent decisions to cut project construction guidance, lower spending, and sell a greater portion of its projects to third parties make sense. It sees the company "progressing towards sustainable growth," while cautioning shares will remain volatile in the near-term. SunEdison is down 34% over the last two days.
Nov. 10, 2015, 11:14 AM
- SunEdison (SUNE -18.9%) has plunged to new multi-year lows after posting mixed Q3 results, cutting its full-year cash available for distribution (CAFD) guidance, and narrowing its full-year project delivery guidance. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.5%) has gone south in spite of beating estimates and providing above-consensus Q4 guidance.
- Solar peers are also off - the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is at its lowest levels since early October. U.S. decliners include First Solar (FSLR -6.2%), SolarCity (SCTY -6%), SunPower (SPWR -6.3%), Enphase (ENPH -8.1%), Solar3D (SLTD -4.6%), SunEdison's TerraForm Power (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo, and SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -3.9%).
- International decliners include Chinese plays Trina (TSL -5.7%), ReneSola (SOL -7.1%), JinkoSolar (JKS -9.2%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%), as well as Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG -6.7%) and SunEdison's emerging markets-focused TerraForm Global (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo.
- “Right now I want the company to become more boring, Boring, and cash-flow generating," said embattled SunEdison CEO Ahmad Chatila on the Q3 earnings call. He reiterated SunEdison expects to build 3.3GW-3.7GW of projects in 2016; the company had once planned to build 4.5GW.
Oct. 28, 2015, 6:58 PM
- In addition to beating Q3 estimates, SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) is guiding for Q4 revenue of $1.25B-$1.3B (above a $1.22B consensus) and full-year EPS of $1.95-$2.05 (above a $1.56 consensus). Full-year EBITDA guidance has been hiked to $475M-$500M from $425M-$475M.
- Q3 Metrics: SunPower recognized revenue on 208MW of solar projects - 74MW for plants, 66MW commercial, and 67MW residential - up from 194M in Q2 and down from 323MW a year ago. MW deployed totaled 293MW vs. 315MW in Q2 and 345MW a year ago. Solar cells produced rose to 361MW from 340MW and 303MW.
- Financials: Q3 power plant revenue totaled $133.2M, commercial $145.9M, and residential $162.3M. Gross margin rose to 17.7% from 17.6% in Q2 and 16.7% a year ago; Q4 GM guidance is at 28%-29%. GAAP operating expenses rose 24% Y/Y to $106.8M. SunPower ended Q3 with $573M in cash, and $778M in debt.
- Q3 results, PR, datasheet (.pdf), slides (.pdf)
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