Seagate Bulls Have No Memory
Dichotomy Capital • 11 Comments
Dichotomy Capital • 11 Comments
Wed, Oct. 19, 8:12 AM
- Revenue of $2.8B (-4% Y/Y, $10M above estimates), gross margin at 29.5%, net income of $299M and EPS of $0.99 ($0.20 above estimates).
- Operating cash flow of $592M, 3M shares repurchased for $101M and cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $1.5B.
- Quarterly divided approved – $0.63 per share, payable on January 4, 2017 to shareholders of record on December 21, 2016.
- Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) chairman and CEO Steve Luczo: "In response to strong cloud storage customer demand, Seagate delivered record levels of exabyte shipments, and generated strong revenues, margin and cash flow in the September quarter. In addition, as a result of our operating expense management, the company's non-GAAP earnings per share increased by 85% year over year. As the demand for HDD storage continues to benefit from the shift to data driven cloud based architectures, Seagate is in a strong position to grow its businesses, improve margins and continue with its dividend and buyback capital allocation objectives."
- Supplemental information
- Conference call (outlook forthcoming)
- Press release
Wed, Oct. 19, 8:02 AM
Tue, Oct. 18, 5:30 PM
Tue, Oct. 11, 3:00 PM
Tue, Oct. 11, 12:38 PM
- Price target raised to $43 from $39 (current price $35.36).
- Analyst Richard Kugele: "In our view, a generally stable to improving demand environment is benefiting Seagate at the very moment it is well underway restructuring its capacity and OPEX model for the new world dominated by CSPs and high-capacity drives. We believe investors (including new 2% holder ValueAct) will be beneficiaries of these dynamics as they flow through the model. We increase our target to $43 from $39 based on 12x F17 EPS of $3.59. With the stock down ~7% (likely sell the news) and nearly 22% room to our new price target, we are upgrading to Strong Buy from Buy."
- Other firms issuing notes following Seagate's (STX -7%) preliminary guidance announcement so far include Citi (remains Neutral) and J.P. Morgan (upgrades to Neutral).
Tue, Oct. 11, 8:25 AM
- The company expects FQ1 revenue of $2.8B and GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin of about 28% - this versus previous guidance of at least $2.7B and 27%, and Street estimates for $2.74B.
- Expense measures continue to progress and operating expenses are expected to be $580M vs. $470M the previous quarter - mostly thanks to higher performance-based compensation. The company ended the quarter with about $1.5B of cash and cash equivalents on hand.
- STX +1.65% premarket; WDC +0.4%
Mon, Sep. 19, 7:10 AM
Sun, Sep. 18, 8:51 AM
- As it grapples with a massive global smartphone recall that is estimated to cost more than $1B, Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF) is moving swiftly to sell stakes in other tech companies to raise cash.
- The Korean firm said Sunday it disposed of shares in ASML, Seagate (NASDAQ:STX), Rambus (NASDAQ:RMBS) and Sharp (OTCPK:SHCAY).
- Total proceeds from the sales exceeded 1T won ($889M).
Fri, Sep. 9, 9:14 AM
- A secondary block trade between Seagate (NASDAQ:STX) and ValueAct Capital will result in the activist becoming one of Seagate's largest shareholders with a 9.5M share stake. Alongside, ValueAct will have a seat at board meetings as an observer.
- Seagate CEO Steve Luczo: "Seagate approached ValueAct to execute this transaction and become an investor in our company, given their commitment to and success in creating long-term value for the companies in which they invest."
- Shares +2.3% premarket
Wed, Sep. 7, 7:28 AM| Wed, Sep. 7, 7:28 AM | 13 Comments
Wed, Aug. 10, 12:21 PM
- Seagate (STX -1.5%) announced "the largest SSD ever demonstrated" at the Flash Memory Summit in Santa Clara, California.
- Such a device is capable of storing 400 million social media-capacity photos or 12,000 DVD movies.
- The architecture provides the lowest cost per gigabyte for flash presently available, with the flexibility to eventually manage 100TB of data.
- A release is planned for 2017.
Tue, Aug. 2, 3:36 PM
- After opening in positive territory this morning, Seagate (STX -5.4%) shares sharply reversed for the remainder of the trading session.
- The company posted better-than-expected quarterly results though has realized a more than 8% decline since then. Several analysts today have restated confidence in the company.
- Needham & Company analyst Richard Kugele reissues a Buy rating and raises his price target to $39 up from $33 (current price $30.70). He notes: "Once again, in the face of a bleak outlook earlier in the year, Seagate successfully pivoted and rallied to meet the challenge. With a clear focus on completing its footprint consolidation and realigning the business to deliver the exabytes required in the nearline CSP world, we believe F4Q represents a major inflection point in the model."
- RBC Capital analyst Amit Daryanani reissues a Sector perform rating and raises his price target to $31 up from $27 citing tempered near-term investor excitement due to management comments on hyperscale demand and restrained free cash flow. He also sees cost controls benefiting operating and cost of goods sold expenses going forward.
- Wells Fargo analyst Maynard Um reissues a Market perform rating and raises his price target range to $28-$32 up from $26-$29. He notes: "Seagate is managing what’s in its control well – reducing capacity, restructuring, limiting capex spend, accelerating certain HDD products, etc." He additionally cites near-term share stabilization, long-term downward pressure within the end market and projected revenue declines should Seagate not successfully shift its product mix to higher ASP products or raise its prices.
- BMO Capital analyst Tim Long reissues a Market perform rating and raises his price target to $31 up from $22. He cites improved sequential gross margin that looks to continue trending higher as a result of the company's restructuring efforts and raises his FY 2017 EPS estimate to $3.04 up from $1.99.
Tue, Aug. 2, 9:49 AM
- Seagate (STX +2.2%) registered better-than-estimated numbers in its Q4 report, though revenue is down 9.2% from this point last year.
- Q4 gross margin of 25.8%, net income of $207M and $269M in operating cash flow. Cash dividends paid totaling $188M.
- FY 2016 revenue of $11.2B, gross margin of 24.6%, net income of $684M and operating cash flow of $1.7B. Cash dividends paid totaling $727M.
- FY cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments of $1.1B. 299M ordinary shares issued and outstanding.
- Quarterly cash dividend approved of $0.63 per share payable on October 5 to shareholders of record from market close on September 21.
- Shipped 61.7 exabytes in Q4, 24.7 of which shipped in nearline storage (+88% Y/Y). Average capacity per drive up 46% Y/Y to 1,674 GB.
- Shipped 233.1 exabytes in FY 2016, 69.7 of which shipped in nearline storage (+28% Y/Y). Average capacity per drive up 29% Y/Y to 1,379 GB.
- Seagate Technology CEO Steve Luczo: "I am confident of the Company’s long-term sustainability and prosperity in a world of significant data creation and high-capacity storage demand driven by emerging technologies, and cloud infrastructure deployments. We believe we have the leading storage technology product portfolio, technology roadmap and operational leverage to ensure we are well-positioned for long-term success and shareholder value."
- Seagate Technology earlier in the quarter announced it was cutting 3% of its workforce. This restructuring effort is expected to be complete by the end of the September quarter.
- The company is up more than 40% on a 1-month basis, more than 60% on a 3-month basis and down around 35% since last year.
- Conference call
- Press release
- Financial statements
- Supplemental information
Tue, Aug. 2, 9:17 AM
- Gainers: SINO +64%. ESEA +28%. ADXS +25%. TRXC +25%. TOPS +17%. CTRV +17%. CGNX +15%. CBIO +12%. AMKR +12%. SODA +11%. PSTI +10%. VGZ +8%. AVP +8%. KOOL +8%. MNK +7%. GKOS +7%. HZNP +6%. OGEN +6%. OCN +6%. WMB +6%. STX 5%. ROSG 6%. NYRT 5%. INO 5%.
- Losers: IDTI -13%. TXRH -10%. ANGO -9%. GLOP -8%. ALLT -6%.
Tue, Aug. 2, 8:02 AM
Mon, Aug. 1, 5:30 PM
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