Swift Transportation: Just A Pause, Not The Stop
Darspal S Mann
Darspal S Mann
Sun, Jan. 24, 5:35 PM
Thu, Jan. 7, 6:57 PM
- RBC Capital and Stephens both came out bearish on the transportation and trucking sector, with RBC analyst John Barnes calling his outlook the most difficult report he had written since the Great Recession, citing confusing signals on the economy and earnings growth that likely will be "uninspiring."
- Barnes downgraded Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ:ODFL), Swift Transportation Company (NYSE:SWFT), Ryder Systems (NYSE:R) and Rush Enterprises (NASDAQ:RUSHA) to Sector Perform from Outperform, and Heartland Express (NASDAQ:HTLD) to Underperform from Sector Perform.
- Stephens analyst Brad Delco cut near-term and longer-term estimates on less-than-truckload names, citing weaker demand trends and the higher fixed cost structure of LTL business models relative to truckload.
- Delco downgraded ArcBest (NASDAQ:ARCB) and Saia (NASDAQ:SAIA) to Equal Weight from Overweight as he favors truckload names over LTL in the current environment, but he maintained his Overweight rating on ODFL as he remains constructive on the best-in-breed name, which he believes can continue taking market share to offset broader market weakness.
Dec. 23, 2015, 9:41 AM
- The American Trucking Association reports its truck tonnage index fell 0.9% M/M in November. The reading for November was 0.2% higher than the year-ago period.
- "With year-over-year gains averaging just 1.2% over the last three months, there has been a clear deceleration in truck tonnage," notes ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello.
- A high level of inventory in retail and the energy market slump could keep truck demand tepid, warns the ATA.
- Related stocks: ODFL, YRCW, RRTS, ECHO, HTLD, JBHT, SWFT, KNX, LSTR, UACL, ARCB, SAIA, CNW, XPO.
Dec. 18, 2015, 6:56 PM
- Trucking stocks tumbled today after Knight Transportation (NYSE:KNX) cut its Q4 earnings guidance, citing excess capacity, a reduction in non-contract opportunities and an increase in driver pay - problems evident throughout the industry.
- Citi downgraded KNX to Neutral from Buy with a $25 price target today, and sees the risk of additional freight slowing as a possibility; although KNX's Q4 freight activity is similar to 2014 levels, slack capacity and less urgency from shippers is pulling volume out of lucrative seasonal trades, Citi says.
- Swift Transportation (NYSE:SWFT) is the firm's only Buy rated stock in the group, as he thinks Q4 has been mostly de-risked following its guidance cut in October.
- Cowen analysts say the weakness in KNX is a buying opportunity, believing capacity should begin to tighten after Q1.
- In today's trade: KNX closed -5.9%, SWFT -6.6%, ODFL -4.7%, WERN -8.2%, ARCB -5.5%, CHRW -2.8%.
Dec. 17, 2015, 4:58 PM
- Knight Transportation (NYSE:KNX) -9% AH after cutting Q4 earnings guidance below consensus, now seeing EPS of $0.31-$0.33 vs. $0.37 analyst consensus estimate and below its prior outlook for $0.36-$0.38.
- KNX says Q4 volumes remain similar to 2014, but that it as experienced significantly fewer non-contract opportunities, resulting in revenue per total mile trending lower than originally expected which hurt EPS by $0.03-$0.04.
- Trucking peers: ODFL, YRCW, UACL, HTLD, RRTS, CGI, WERN, CVTI, MRTN, LSTR, SWFT, USAK, R, JBHT.
Dec. 10, 2015, 10:10 AM
- Universal Truckload Services (UACL +2.1%) is higher in early trading after starting off the day at a 52-week.
- The pickup in share price coincides with a broad rally in trucking stocks today as investors factor in the impact of lower fuel prices on surcharges and expenses. Trucking stocks have been hit over the last few months on concerns over the level of U.S. manufacturing.
- Other trucking stocks on the move today include Covenant Transportation Group (CVTI +3.8%), Swift Transportation (SWFT +2.3%), Knight Transportation (KNX +2.2%), and YRC Worldwide (YRCW +2.9%).
Dec. 2, 2015, 12:17 PM
- Transportation stocks are lower on the day on some broad macroeconomic concerns. Some BAML downgrades in the sector are also weighing on sentiment.
- Trading is notably weak in CXS Corp (CSX -2.3%), American Railcar Industries (ARII -2.6%), Kansas City Southern (KSU -1.9%), YRC Worldwide (YRCW -5.7%), Heartland Express (HTLD -3.7%), Swift Transportation (SWFT -3%), FedEx (FDX -0.9%), UPS (UPS -0.5%), Air Transport Services (ATSG -1.7%), and Matson (MATX -2.5%).
- A notable exception to the sector slide is airline stocks which are showing strength after Delta Air Lines (DAL +2.7%) reported some eye-opening capacity constraint. The major carrier increased passenger revenue per available seat mile sand load factor during November. A 3% decline in crude oil prices is also factoring in to the rally in airline stocks.
- United Continental (UAL +3.2%), Hawaiian Holdings (HA +2.9%), Southwest Airlines (LUV +2.3%), and Republic Airways Holdings (RJET +4.4%) are all solidly higher.
- The Dow Jones Transportation Average is down 0.8% off the conflicting forces of gravity.
- Related ETFs: IYT, XTN, JETS.
Oct. 27, 2015, 4:46 PM
- Swift Transportation (NYSE:SWFT) ended 1.8% higher to recover from earlier losses after saying it planned to halt the expansion of its trucking fleet in response to weak freight demand and pricing.
- “Effective immediately we will enter into a zero fleet growth mode. Until we reach a best in class utilization level, we will not be adding any new equipment," SWFT CEO Jerry Moyes said in today's earnings conference call, adding that the company is considering reducing its count of tractor-trailers.
- Analysts said SWFT’s move is aimed at bolstering freight rates amid a soft patch in the economy that has hurt transportation companies across the board.
- SWFT's announcement followed a weak Q3 earnings report released after yesterday's close, as EBITDA fell 11% Y/Y to $137.2M.
Oct. 26, 2015, 4:05 PM
- Swift Transportation (NYSE:SWFT): Q3 EPS of $0.31 misses by $0.01.
- Revenue of $1.07B (flat Y/Y) misses by $10M.
- Shares -0.5%.
Oct. 25, 2015, 5:35 PM
Sep. 25, 2015, 7:11 AM
- Swift Transportation (NYSE:SWFT) lowers full-year EPS guidance to $1.43-$1.52 from a prior level of $1.64-$1.74.
- The drop in profit expectation is due in part to the impact of an accident and worker compensation claims.
- Swift expects Q3 EPS to be $0.30-$0.33 vs. $0.44 consensus and Q4 EPS to be $0.48-$0.54 vs. $0.59 consensus.
- A new buyback plan of $100M was approved by Swift Transportation.
Jul. 27, 2015, 4:13 PM
- Swift Transportation (NYSE:SWFT): Q2 EPS of $0.37 in-line.
- Revenue of $1.06B (-1.9% Y/Y) misses by $40M.
Jul. 26, 2015, 5:35 PM
Jun. 24, 2015, 11:16 AM
- Select railroad and trucking stocks trade weak after Q1 GDP figures are revised in-line with expectations. A read yesterday on durable goods was weak.
- Stocks from the transportation sector drifting lower include Knight Transportation (KNX -4.5%), Swift Transportation (SWFT -5.5%), ArcBest (ARCB -3.9%), YRC Worldwide (YRCW -2.2%), Greenbrier (GBX -1.6%), Heartland Express (HTLD -2.6%), Kansas City Southern (KSU -2.2%), Celadon Group (CGI -2%), JB Hunt Transport (JBHT -2.1%), Trinity Industries (TRN -1.6%).
- FedEx (FDX -0.9%) and UPS (UPS -0.8%) are also trailing broad market averages.
Jun. 19, 2015, 11:26 AM
- The EPA and NHTSA have published a new set of rules covering fuel efficiency on medium and heavy duty vehicles built for the model year 2018 and beyond.
- The agencies forecast the program will cut greenhouse gas emissions by 1B metric tons and lower fuel costs by $170B for the lifetime of the vehicles manufactured under the program.
- Though the release of tighter emission rules has been widely anticipated, perhaps a bigger surprise this week was the strong statement made by Pope Francis on the global need to address climate control.
- The number of companies that could ultimately be impacted by the proposed changes if they are enacted spread across various sectors.
- Joint EPA/NHTSA proposal (.pdf)
- Encyclical letter from Pope Francis (.pdf)
- Related stocks: KNX, PTSI, ODFL, JBHT, R, SWFT, CNW, GM, F, OTCPK:DDAIF, NAV, OTCPK:VOLVY, CMI, PCAR, FDX, UPS, HTZ, TM,
Jun. 19, 2015, 10:09 AM
- The EPA is expected to announce a new set of rules today covering medium and heavy trucks built in the model year 2019.
- The administration aims to improve fuel efficiency with larger-sized trucks accounting for 20% of all emissions in the transportation sector off a mark of 4% of vehicles on the road.
- The new rules could also cover light-duty pickup trucks, buses, and delivery vehicles.
- Related stocks: KNX, PTSI, ODFL, JBHT, R, SWFT, CNW, GM, F, OTCPK:DDAIF, NAV, OTCPK:VOLVY, CMI, PCAR.
Swift Transportation Co. engages in the provision of transportation solutions. It operates through the following segments: Truckload, Dedicated, Central Refrigerated, and Intermodal. The Truckload segment consists of one-way movements over irregular routes throughout the United States, Mexico,... More
Sector: Consumer Goods
Industry: Trucks & Other Vehicles
Country: United States
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