TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF  |  NYSEARCA
52wk high:24.49
52wk low:20.29
Expense Ratio:0.94%
Div Frequency:
Div Rate (ttm):-
Yield (ttm):-
Assets (AUM):$720.22M
Volume:
  • Fri, Jan. 13, 1:41 PM
    • The Hoisington Capital duo remind that markets - as they initially did in 2009 - have quickly priced in sizable positive effects from a mammoth fiscal stimulus package.
    • The rush to judgement then was wrong, and may be so today as well. The mistake then (and now?): To assume the economy is "an understandable and controllable machine rather than a complex, adaptive system."
    • There is, they say, an underestimation of the negative impact of delayed implementation and other lags, not to mention the risk of unintended consequences.
    • There's also monetary policy, and if that continues to tighten, it could offset any effect from fiscal actions.
    • They expect GDP growth of just 2% this year, and a 30-year Treasury yield trending toward that low figure (vs. 3% currently).
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    Fri, Jan. 13, 1:41 PM | 4 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 11, 2:50 AM
    Wed, Jan. 11, 2:50 AM | 12 Comments
  • Thu, Jan. 5, 9:10 AM
    • The ADP reported 153K private-sector jobs added in December - that's down from 216K in November, and lower than expectations for 172K.
    • In the 12 months prior to December, ADP job gains averaged 187K.
    • Initial jobless claims, however, paint a far stronger picture, falling 28K to 235K - the lowest since 1973. It was a holiday week, so the print is likely being brushed off by traders.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 2.4 basis points to 2.417%. TLT +0.4%, TBT -0.8%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    Thu, Jan. 5, 9:10 AM
  • Wed, Jan. 4, 7:57 AM
    • In the period from Dec. 12 to Jan. 3, the percentage of all clients short Treasurys fell to 20% from 39%.
    • Things were more dramatic for active clients, where shorts fell to 10% from 60%.
    • The action, of course, took place as interest rates continued to push higher into the end of the year (though they did retreat a decent amount in the past few days of December).
    • The 10-year Treasury yield this morning is flat at 2.46%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    Wed, Jan. 4, 7:57 AM
  • Tue, Jan. 3, 10:37 AM
    • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up a mere three basis points to 2.505%, but double-digit yield advances are taking place all across Western Europe, including Germany, where the 10-year Bund yield is higher by 10.2 bps to 0.286%.
    • Released just over 30 minutes ago, the U.S. ISM manufacturing report didn't disappoint the economy bulls. The headline gauge of 54.7 rose from November and topped estimates. Both the New Orders and Production sub-indexes jumped above 60, as did Prices Paid.
    • TLT -0.45%, TBT +0.9%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, GIM, TMF, BNDX, TTT, ZROZ, BWX, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, IGOV, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    Tue, Jan. 3, 10:37 AM | 6 Comments
  • Sun, Jan. 1, 5:44 AM
    • SocGen suspects investors have not forgotten about a powerful bond rally in each January of the past three years, each with its own rationale ("the 2H13 taper tantrum was reversed as the economy started to run out of steam; early 2015 saw the front running of the ECB’s QE; early 2016 saw a panic reaction to large capital outflows in China").
    • Still, firm says it does not expect a repeat:
    • The macro environment differs sharply. Global growth peaked in autumn 2013, and from there slowed down consistently into mid-2016. But it has now turned. Global inflation has also picked up, with U.S. wages, oil prices and the Chinese PPI all pointing north. Economic momentum into the turn of the year, especially in the DM world, is such that the global economy is likely to prove more resilient to shocks.
    • "The cyclical improvement, along with the ongoing reflation effort (U.S. fiscal stimulus in the pipe, ECB, BoE and BoJ remain very accommodative) will push market participants to reduce unprecedented exposure to the interest rate risk.
    • "Our directional bias for now remains bearish."
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TIP, TMV, IEF, SHY, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, VTIP, ZROZ, RINF, MBB, VGLT, TLH, IEI, BKT, SCHP, BIL, TYO, UBT, IPE, UST, DLBS, PLW, DTYS, TLO, VGSH, VMBS, LTPZ, SHV, GNMA, VGIT, STPP, STPZ, TIPZ, GOVT, SCHO, STIP, FLAT, TBX, SCHR, FTT, ITE, GSY, TYD, DTYL, EGF, VUSTX, DLBL, MBG, TYBS, SST, DTUS, TPS, TUZ, DTUL, TDTT, AGZ, DFVL, TIPX, TAPR, TBZ, TDTF, DFVS, USFR, TYNS, SIPE, TFLO, RISE, FIBR, GBIL, HYDD
    Sun, Jan. 1, 5:44 AM
  • Dec. 16, 2016, 5:23 AM
    • Japan has overtaken China as the biggest holder of U.S. government bonds, as figures for foreign ownership of U.S. Treasurys in October show that China's holdings declined to the lowest in more than six years as its central bank used its foreign exchange reserves to support the yuan.
    • Japan's Treasury holdings also decreased but at a slower pace; Japan trimmed $4.5B of U.S. paper to end the month with $1.131T, while China's holdings plunged by $41.3B to $1.115T, the lowest level since July 2010 and capping a decline of five straight months.
    • China has been dipping into its reserves, selling Treasurys to support the yuan, which yesterday fell to its weakest level vs. the U.S. dollar in more than eight years.
    • Foreigners in general are dumping U.S. debt at a record pace, selling off $304B over the last seven months; October's outflows totaled $63.5B and followed record foreign selling of $76.6B in September.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    Dec. 16, 2016, 5:23 AM | 4 Comments
  • Dec. 14, 2016, 2:07 PM
    • Surprising no one with a 25 basis points rate hike this afternoon, the "dots" will make some noise as they show the median Fed Funds rate for the end of next to be 1.4% - or roughly three 25 basis point rate hikes. That's up from just two anticipated three months ago.
    • The most hawkish of the dots expects a Fed Funds rate of 2.125% to end 2017, and the most dovish 0.875%.
    • GDP projections are marginally higher, UE rate projections marginally lower, and core PCE inflation projections the same (1.8% in 2017, 2% in 2018 and 2019).
    • Bond yields have moved up since the news hit, with the 10-year Treasury now up 1.6 basis points to 2.49%.
    • Previously: FOMC lifts Fed Funds rate 25 basis points (Dec. 14)
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    Dec. 14, 2016, 2:07 PM | 13 Comments
  • Dec. 13, 2016, 10:29 AM
    • According to JPMorgan's weekly survey, about 60% of active clients have net short positions in Treasurys. That's up from roughly 20% a few weeks back. It's also the highest level of net shorts in more than two years.
    • The FOMC begins its two-day meeting today, the end of which will almost certainly see a 25 basis point rate hike.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is flat today at 2.472%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    Dec. 13, 2016, 10:29 AM | 18 Comments
  • Dec. 12, 2016, 5:27 AM
    Dec. 12, 2016, 5:27 AM | 4 Comments
  • Nov. 30, 2016, 8:52 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield was already higher this morning, possibly helped along by a 7% moonshot in oil on reports of a deal to cut production.
    • The yield jumped further - now up 7 basis points to 2.36% - following the November ADP report showing 216K jobs added vs. just 160K expected, and 147K in October.
    • Other news to consider is Trump's Secretary pick Steven Mnuchin and his promise of tax reform - including both personal and corporate tax cuts - as a first priority.
    • TLT -1.15%, TBT +2% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    Nov. 30, 2016, 8:52 AM | 6 Comments
  • Nov. 28, 2016, 3:37 AM
    Nov. 28, 2016, 3:37 AM | 11 Comments
  • Nov. 15, 2016, 9:27 AM
    • At least across the developed Western hemisphere, yields are lower across the board today, particularly in the EU periphery countries of Spain and Italy.
    • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is down four basis points to 2.22% - this despite a roaring retail sales report for October. TLT +0.65%, TBT -1.3%
    • With a 25 basis point December rate hike a near absolute metaphysical certainty, it's time to start talking about the next move after that.
    • For now, traders are pretty complacent about any sort of tightening cycle. Looking all the way out to July of 2017, Fed Funds futures are pricing in only about a 50% chance of an additional rate hike.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    Nov. 15, 2016, 9:27 AM | 1 Comment
  • Nov. 14, 2016, 12:14 PM
    • Consistently bullish (and right) on fixed-income for as long as anyone can remember, Van Hoisington isn't buying the conventional wisdom that the election results mean the economy and inflation are set for a demand shock in the form of lower taxes, less regulation, and more deficit spending.
    • His view of the trajectory of the economy (sluggish) over the next four to six quarters is unchanged.
    • For tax cuts to make a positive contribution, monetary policy must "remain favorable, not adversarial," and the Fed is about to hike rates, he says. The Reagan tax cuts, he reminds, were far larger than what's being discussed, and occurred as interest rates were declining sharply.
    • Hoisington: "Markets have a pronounced tendency to rush to judgment when policy changes occur,” and were proven wrong about potential for 2009 stimulus and QE1 to ignite inflation.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • Previously: "Bond vigilantes" term comes out of retirement (Nov. 14)
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    Nov. 14, 2016, 12:14 PM | 1 Comment
  • Nov. 14, 2016, 4:56 AM
    Nov. 14, 2016, 4:56 AM | 8 Comments
  • Nov. 12, 2016, 9:04 AM
    • The president-elect's pro-business agenda is inherently "unfriendly" to bonds, Jeff Gundlach tells Barron's, as it will lead to stronger economic growth and renewed inflation.
    • Look for Trump to "amp up the deficit" to pay for infrastructure and other programs - producing an inflation rate of 3% and nominal GDP growth of 4-6%. Given that, there's no way the 10-year Treasury yield stays near its current level of 2.15%, and it could rise as high as 6% in the next four or five years. [Serious question: How does "amp up the deficit" differ in any way from what was done in 2009? Can anyone say "shovel-ready"?]
    • For now, Gundlach (DFLEX, DBLFX, DBL) remains a fan of TIPS (NYSEARCA:TIP), and has swapped a good deal of his government paper for those inflation-protected securities.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    Nov. 12, 2016, 9:04 AM | 205 Comments