ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBF) - NYSEARCA
  • Wed, Jan. 20, 8:44 AM
    • With global markets in full retreat and U.S. stock index futures lower by nearly 2%, money is flowing into government paper - the 10-year yield is down nine basis points to 1.97%.
    • Except for a brief flirtation on Friday, 2% hadn't been breached since October, and the yield was about 2.30% when the Fed hiked short-term rates in December.
    • Maybe more frustrating for the central planners at the Eccles Building, the two-year Treasury yield - which they would seemingly have a lot more control of - has plunged to 0.82% from 1.09% in the wake of December's rate hike.
    • FOMC speakers continue to remain on record as promising four rate hikes this year. Futures markets now say one more at most, and Ray Dalio contends the Fed's next move will be to ease. Might the Fed say "uncle" this week?
    • Earlier: December CPI and Housing Starts come in soft.
    • TLT +1.2%, TBT -2.4%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Wed, Jan. 20, 8:44 AM | 8 Comments
  • Fri, Jan. 15, 8:52 AM
    • Retail sales unexpectedly slipped in December, and the NY Fed's manufacturing survey shows business activity in that region tumbling at the fastest pace since the Great Recession.
    • Remaining below zero for the sixth straight month, the general business conditions index fell 13 points to -19.4%. New orders plunged a full 17 points to -23.5 and shipments declined 19 points to -14.4. Indexes for the six-month outlook also fell sharply - down 26 points to 9.5, the lowest level since 2009.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 11 basis points to 1.99% - its first time below 2% in three months, and now off about 30 basis points since the Fed hiked a month ago. TLT +1.5% premarket, TBT -3%
    • Also helping Treasurys is what is now a 2%+ decline in major U.S. stock index futures. SPY -2.4% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Fri, Jan. 15, 8:52 AM | 50 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 12, 1:44 PM
    • Mulling a stock market that can't seem to put together a sustained rally and oil within pennies of sinking below $30 per barrel, investors today pour money into long-dated U.S. government paper, sending the 10-year yield down eight basis points to 2.10%, its lowest level since late October.
    • Long bond permabulls (right so far) Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt aren't surprised, citing anemic economic activity as 2015 drew to a close. The team says the 3% estimated gain in nominal GDP in 2015 was the smallest for any year since the recession. The global picture doesn't look any better.
    • They again take to task QE, and note the growing empirical evidence casting doubt on its efficacy.
    • "We believe that the long awaited secular low in long-term Treasury bond yields remains ahead."
    • TLT +1.5%, TBT -3%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Tue, Jan. 12, 1:44 PM | 2 Comments
  • Mon, Jan. 11, 10:32 AM
    • That Treasurys aren't going into the tank as China becomes a net seller for the first time ever isn't much of a surprise to those who saw that country's previous buying of U.S. government paper as little more than an automatic accounting necessity.
    • Previous massive capital inflows into China left that country's banks with greenbacks which were turned over to the PBOC in exchange for freshly printed yuan. The PBOC then took those dollars and bought (mostly) U.S. paper.
    • With inflows turning into outflows, China isn't getting any net greenbacks with which to invest, and instead needs to sell its Treasury holdings to raise dollars with which it can buy up the yuan that nobody else seems to want at the moment.
    • Naturally, plenty of buyers - no longer pouring money into China - are gladly stepping in to take the other side of Beijing's Treasury sales.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Mon, Jan. 11, 10:32 AM | 5 Comments
  • Fri, Jan. 8, 2:50 PM
    • This morning's nonfarm payrolls print was pretty much a blowout, with 292K December jobs vs. 200K expected, and sizable positive revisions to November. The Fed has been right as rain on jobs, but other indicators - including inflation and manufacturing surveys - paint a significantly weaker picture of the economy.
    • A modest overnight bounce in Chinese equities, however, is failing to ignite any sort of rally in the West - with Europe losing nearly another 2% today to complete its worst week in nearly five years, and U.S. stocks giving up near-1% gains.
    • Fed officials, meanwhile, continue to insist the market - which sees just two rate hikes this year - is way too dovish.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield shot up to 2.21% after the strong number this morning, but is currently at 2.13%, off two basis points on the session.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, IEI, TYO, UBT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, LBND, ITE, DTYL, DLBL, TYBS, DFVL, VUSTX, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Fri, Jan. 8, 2:50 PM | 6 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 6, 8:25 AM
    • Bond traders are focused on red equity numbers and the continuing crash in energy rather than a strong ADP jobs report - 257K private sector jobs added in December vs. 190K expected. Today's print is the strongest since 275K jobs gained in December 2014.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield moved up one basis point on the news to 2.19%, but is still lower by five basis points on the session, with U.S. stock index futures down 2% and oil off 3.3%.
    • TLT +1.2%, TBT -2.4% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Wed, Jan. 6, 8:25 AM | 6 Comments
  • Dec. 11, 2015, 10:42 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by six basis points to 2.17%, but high-yield paper is once again headed the opposite direction, with HYG down 1.2% and JNK down 1.1%.
    • The panicky action in junk bonds comes as oil sinks to new bear market lows, now off 2% to $36.06 after falling as low as $35.70 earlier. The major averages are all down more than 1%, led by energy's 2.4% decline.
    • Long-dated Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Dec. 11, 2015, 10:42 AM | 17 Comments
  • Dec. 7, 2015, 1:11 PM
    • Touching as high as 2.30% earlier in the session, the 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled all the way to 2.21%. The move comes with the major averages lower by more than 1%, led by the energy sector's near-5% decline as oil plunges below $38 per barrel.
    • The flow into the safety of government paper is in contrast with the continued exit from high-yield.
    • Next week's Fed rate hike in the face of plunging commodity prices (it's not just oil headed south) and signs of strain in credit markets should make for interesting reactions.
    • TLT +1.3%, TBT -2.6%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Dec. 7, 2015, 1:11 PM | 6 Comments
  • Dec. 4, 2015, 8:40 AM
    • In addition to the November jobs gain of 211K (vs. 200K expected), October's big 271K number was revised higher to 298K, and September's 137K to 145K.
    • The average workweek edged lower by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings rose $0.04 to $25.25; on a Y/Y basis, they're higher by 2.3%.
    • The labor force participation rate gained 10 basis points to 62.5%. A year ago, it was 62.9%.
    • The broader U-6 unemployment rate rose to 9.9% from 9.8%. One year ago, it was 11.4%. Headline unemployment held steady at 5%. One year ago, it was 5.8%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is moving higher again, up three basis points to 2.35%, and the 2-year Treasury yield is up a big 3.3 basis points to just under 1%.
    • TLT -0.75% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Dec. 4, 2015, 8:40 AM | 10 Comments
  • Dec. 3, 2015, 10:13 AM
    • The ECB earlier cut its deposit rate further into negative territory and extended the length of the QE program, but the central bank failed to give markets what they want - a boost in the amount of QE, or expansion into asset classes like regional bonds, ABS, or used exercise equipment which never seems to sell on Craigslist.
    • As a result, European stocks are tumbling, and the euro and bond yields are on the rise.
    • Treasurys are also taking the news hard, with the 10-year yield up nine basis points to 2.27% (all of this move came before Janet Yellen told Congress she is "looking forward" to hiking rates). TLT -1.7%, TBT +3.4%
    • On the flipside of the soaring euro is the dollar (UUP -1.5%).
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, UUP, TMV, UDN, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, FORX, DLBS, USDU, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Dec. 3, 2015, 10:13 AM | 5 Comments
  • Dec. 2, 2015, 1:13 PM
    • The ADP earlier estimated U.S. private-sector payroll growth of 217K in November up from 196K in October and against expectations for 183K.
    • Fed speakers Janet Yellen and Dennis Lockhart did everything except explicitly promise a rate hike this month.
    • The two-year Treasury yield is up 3.9 basis points to 0.946% - it's highest level in 5.5 years, and the 10-year yield is higher by six basis points to 2.20%. Today's jobs data contrasts with yesterday's manufacturing data which showed that sector of the economy in contraction (and which sent the ten-year yield sliding down to 2.14%).
    • TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.8%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, PLW, GOVT, FTT, TENZ, LBND, EGF, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX, TAPR
    | Dec. 2, 2015, 1:13 PM | 4 Comments
  • Dec. 1, 2015, 10:09 AM
    • November's 48.6 read puts the ISM index into contraction for the first time in three years. It's also the weakest print since July 2009.
    • Economists expected the gauge to rise to 50.5 from 50.1 in October, and strategists are scrambling to see if there's precedent for the Fed launching a rate hike cycle with the ISM below 50.
    • Turning to the subindexes ...
    • New Orders fell to 48.9 from 52.9, Production 49.2 from 52.9, Supplier Deliveries 50.6 from 50.4, Prices 35.5 from 39, Backlogs 43 from 42.5, Employment 51.3 from 47.6.
    • At 2.24% ahead of the number, the 10-year Treasury yield is now at 2.18%, off three basis points on the session. TLT +0.6%, TBT -1.2%
    • Full report
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Dec. 1, 2015, 10:09 AM | 26 Comments
  • Nov. 20, 2015, 10:39 AM
    • The U.S. economic expansion has many more years to go, says St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard - strong words considering this particular expansion has already gone about two years past the median length.
    • Bulls on long-dated Treasurys might take heart from Bullard's comments as the central banker typically gets his forecasts wrong (to be fair, the fortune-teller business is a tough one). Indeed, the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 2.23% from 2.26% since the remarks.
    • Bullard sees unemployment falling into the low-4% range next year, and says monthly job gains need to be no more than 130K to keep up with population growth.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Nov. 20, 2015, 10:39 AM | 7 Comments
  • Nov. 18, 2015, 8:47 AM
    • Speaking at the TCH Conference (The Clearing House), Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart says the job market has already met the criteria necessary for tighter monetary policy.
    • He says he was ready to hike rates in September, but decided to defer to the majority of the FOMC.
    • The boost is coming next month, and now it's time to focus on what the pace of rate hikes might look like. According to Lockhart, there's nothing predetermined, but he expects this tightening cycle to be "relatively gradual or shallow."
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is up three basis points to 2.29%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Nov. 18, 2015, 8:47 AM | 20 Comments
  • Nov. 13, 2015, 12:52 PM
    • "Call it the triumph of hope over experience," says HSBC Securities interest rate strategist Larry Dyer. "The consensus forecast, including the Fed, is priced to the idea that nothing bad will happen."
    • He sees the 10-year Treasury yield falling all the way to 1.5% by the end of next year - a full 150 basis points less than the Fed (and most economist) forecasts.
    • As for next month, he expects a rate hike mainly because the Fed has said it would, not because economic fundamentals justify it.
    • The 10-year yield is lower by three basis points today to 2.28% after this morning's soft retail sales and PPI numbers.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Nov. 13, 2015, 12:52 PM | 14 Comments
  • Nov. 6, 2015, 8:47 AM
    • Alongside the big October jobs number (271K jobs gained vs. 142K expected), September job gains were revised lower by 5K; August's revised higher by 17K.
    • The average workweek was flat at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings rose a big $0.09 to $25.20. They're up 2.5% Y/Y.
    • The labor force participation rate was steady at 62.4% as the headline UE rate fell to 5% from 5.1%. The broader U-6 unemployment rate fell to 9.8% from 10% - one year ago, it was 11.5%.
    • Employment gains were seen across all industries, with the notable exception being the troubled mining industries - down another 5K last month, and now having given up 109K jobs since peaking last December.
    • It's all systems go for a rate hike in one month, and the 10-year Treasury yield is up eight basis points to 2.31%. TLT -0.8%, TBT +1.6%
    • The two-year Treasury yield spikes 8.8 basis points to 0.93%.
    • The January Fed Funds futures contract dips 3.5 basis points to 99.695, now pricing in about a 75% chance of a rate hike before year-end.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, STPP, FLAT, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    • Previously: Big beat on jobs number (Nov. 6)
    | Nov. 6, 2015, 8:47 AM | 17 Comments
TBF Description
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses and interest income earned on cash and financial instruments, that correspond to the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.
See more details on sponsor's website
Country: United States
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