ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) - NYSEARCA
  • Mon, Jun. 20, 12:29 PM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield fell to as low as 1.52% last week after the Fed's surprise retreat from rate-hike talk, but it's returned all the way back to 1.67% after a weekend poll showed support for a Brexit slipping (vote is on Thursday).
    • Was the Fed's dovish shift solely due to Brexit fears? It won't be long before we find out. For now, Fed Funds futures have upped the odds of a rate hike this year - though it's still roughly a zero chance for July, a move at some point in 2016 is just over 50%.
    • TLT -0.95%, TBT +1.9%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Mon, Jun. 20, 12:29 PM
  • Thu, Jun. 16, 11:47 AM
    • The yield on the 10-year Treasury earlier fell as much as seven basis points to 1.52% - its lowest level in four years and within sight of its all-time low of 1.39%. It's since bounced back to 1.54%.
    • The two-year Treasury yield is off another seven basis points to 0.66% - its lowest level since the Feb. 11 bottom of 2016's market panic.
    • The Fed's dovish retreat yesterday combined with growing fears of a Brexit (the vote is one week away) are at work.
    • Across the pond, the German 10-year Bund yield is down 1.3 basis points to negative 0.02%, and the Swiss 30-year bond has fallen to negative territory - making that country the first one ever with government bond yields below zero all the way out to 30 years on the curve. U.K. 10-year Gilt yields are down to 1.11%.
    • TLT +0.8%, TBT -1.6%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Thu, Jun. 16, 11:47 AM
  • Wed, Jun. 15, 2:16 PM
    • The FOMC stayed on hold as expected, but the "dots" showed a sizable downsizing in expectations for future rate hikes. The policy statement showed no hint of any interest in hiking rates in July. Six Fed members expect just one rate hike in 2016 - that's up from a few weeks ago, when just one saw only a single move this year.
    • 2017 and 2018 Fed Funds rate projections were cut as well.
    • As for GDP, the seers see growth of 2% this year vs. 2.2% expected weeks ago. 2017 is cut to 2% from 2.1%. 2018 remains at 2%.
    • PCE inflation this year is expected to be 1.4% vs. just 1.2% at last projection. 2017 remains at 1.9%, and 2018 at 2%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 3.8 basis points to 1.576%, but the big move is in 2-year yields, which are off a full six basis points to 0.67%.
    • There's partying in the Fed Funds pits, where traders now have priced in just a 50% chance of a rate hike anytime this year.
    • TLT +0.45%, TBT -0.9%
    • Previously: Fed stays on hold, sees fewer future rate hikes (June 15)
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Wed, Jun. 15, 2:16 PM | 2 Comments
  • Thu, Jun. 9, 11:26 AM
    • What's going on here? The yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen all the way back to 1.66% - that's the level it was at on February 11 when oil was below $30, credit spreads were blowing out, and the Dow was nearly 3K points lower. The yield on the 30-year Treasury of 2.46% is the lowest since February 2015.
    • The yield on the 2-year Treasury, though down to 0.77% after nearly touching 1% a couple of weeks back, remains well above the level of February 11 as the Fed preps for a summer rate hike.
    • It all adds up to a sharply flatter yield curve - the 2 year/10 year spread is just 89 basis points, the slimmest since late 2007. The Fed and most Wall Street economists today (as they did in 2007) shrug off the predictive power of the flat yield curve. TLT +0.55%, TBT -1.1%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, STPP, FLAT, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Thu, Jun. 9, 11:26 AM | 24 Comments
  • Mon, Jun. 6, 12:42 PM
    • Stocks and bond yields remain modestly higher after Janet Yellen surprised few by taking note of the weak Friday jobs number, but reminding the Fed won't be swayed by one report. While the soft print bears watching, the economy remains on track, as does the central bank's plan to hike rates again at some point.
    • S&P 500 (SPY +0.4%), DJIA (DIA +0.5%), Nasdaq (QQQ +0.3%).
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is up 2 basis points to 1.72%. TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.8%
    | Mon, Jun. 6, 12:42 PM | 10 Comments
  • Fri, Jun. 3, 8:42 AM
    • Alongside just 38K jobs added to payrolls in May (vs. 164K expected), April's 160K gain was revised lower by 37K jobs, and 22K jobs were cut from March's originally-reported 208K gain. That adds up to 59K in downward revisions for those two months.
    • The unemployment rate is looking great though - falling to 4.7% from 5% - thanks to the labor force participation rate dropping to 62.6% from 62.8%. The participation rate is now down by 40 basis points in the last three months.
    • The broader U-6 unemployment fell was unchanged at 9.7%.
    • The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours. Average hourly earnings increased by a nickel to $25.59. On a Y/Y basis, earnings are up 2.5%.
    • Looking at the job totals in more detail, employment in information fell 34K in May, with the Verizon strike pulling 35K workers off company payrolls.
    • U.S. stock index futures (SPY, QQQ, DIA) have turned modestly lower following the headline miss, but the real action is in the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled seven basis points to 1.73%. TLT +0.75%, TBT -1.5%
    | Fri, Jun. 3, 8:42 AM | 24 Comments
  • Thu, Jun. 2, 8:32 AM
    • Private nonfarm payrolls added 173K jobs in May, according to ADP, roughly inline with estimates. Service jobs were up 175K, and goods-producing jobs fell slightly.
    • April's 156K gain was revised up to 166K.
    • The average job gain over the past three months is 180K vs. 229K the prior three months, and 180K the three months before that.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield remains flat on the session at 1.833%. TLT +0.1%, TBT -0.2%
    | Thu, Jun. 2, 8:32 AM
  • Wed, Jun. 1, 10:12 AM
    • The PMI rose to 51.3 in May from 50.8 previously. Expectations had been for a modest decline. Leading the surprise increase was an outlier of a jump in Supplier Deliveries to 54.1 from 49.1. A higher number means delivery times are lengthening. Prices paid also saw a sizable 4.5 point increase to 63.5.
    • New Orders edged lower to 55.7, and Production fell 1.6 points to 52.6.
    • Despite the better-than-expected print, Treasurys are holding onto gains, with the 10-year yield down 2.5 basis points to 1.82%. TLT +0.65%, TBT -1.3%
    • Full report
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Wed, Jun. 1, 10:12 AM
  • Tue, May 31, 10:10 AM
    • The Chicago PMI unexpectedly slipped to 49.3 in May, its lowest level since February, and the sixth time in the last 12 months its been in contraction zone.
    • The May decline was led by a 6.6 point fall in Production, and a more mild setback in New Orders - with both subindexes slipping below 50.
    • Turning to consumer confidence, it fell in May to 92.6 from 94.7 in April, confounding expectations for a sizable increase.
    • Nevertheless, the hawks are in charge now at the FOMC, and the 10-year Treasury yield remains higher on the session by three basis points to 1.88%. TLT -0.5%, TBT +1%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Tue, May 31, 10:10 AM | 1 Comment
  • Fri, May 27, 1:52 PM
    • Taking questions on stage after receiving an honor at Radcliffe, Janet Yellen doesn't sound as hawkish as recent FOMC minutes and Fed speakers who pointed to a pretty good chance of a June rate hike. She doesn't shoot down the idea either.
    • Best guess now would be the Fed gets a hike under its belt in July, and then maybe sits out the election season.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield has added about 1.5 basis points, now higher by two bps on the day to 1.85%. TLT -0.1%, TBT +0.2%.
    • Short-term rate futures are pricing in about  75% chance of a rate hike by the end of July.
    • Stocks remain marginally higher in sleepy trade.
    | Fri, May 27, 1:52 PM | 8 Comments
  • Fri, May 27, 7:41 AM
    • The week's main Fed event is an appearance by the Fed boss this afternoon at Harvard. While many expect Yellen to give another boost to the recent hawkish turn by the Fed, Jeff Gundlach anticipates she'll use the appearance to temper bets on a more rapid rise in rates.
    • Gundlach says the Fed won't hike in June unless futures markets show the chances of such a move as greater than 50%. Those odds are currently at just 28%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 1.83%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Fri, May 27, 7:41 AM | 9 Comments
  • Thu, May 26, 7:48 PM
    • With traders holding back from the barbecue to take in Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech Friday -- and following Fed Governor Jerome Powell's note today that a rate hike is appropriate "fairly soon" -- DoubleLine honcho Jeffrey Gundlach says he's expecting she'll be "dovish" when she speaks.
    • He does think, based on the yield curve, there's up to a 75% chance that the Fed will raise rates this year -- which would weaken the dollar.
    • And if the S&P 500 falls below 2,000, it's going to 1,600, he added. The index closed flat at 2,090 today.
    • Yellen will be making her first public appearance in almost two months when she takes part in a Q&A with Harvard's Gregory Mankiw after receiving the Radcliffe Medal Friday.
    • ETFs: SPY, SH, TBT, TLT, SSO, VOO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, TMV, RSP, SPXS, TBF, EDV, RWL, VFINX, TMF, EPS, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, SPLX, SFLALBND, SPUU, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS, LLSP, RYARX
    | Thu, May 26, 7:48 PM | 34 Comments
  • Tue, May 24, 10:15 AM
    • Those angling for a hike in interest rates at the June FOMC meeting got a boost to their argument a few minutes ago, as new home sales in April soared way past expectations and to their highest level in eight years.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is higher by three basis points to 1.864%. TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2%
    • Short-term rate markets are pricing in about a 40% chance of a June move by the Fed, and a near-100% chance by summer's end. They've also begun pricing in odds of two rate hikes by the end of 2016.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, BIL, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VGSH, SHV, SCHO, LBND, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS, SST, DTUS, TUZ, DTUL, RISE
    | Tue, May 24, 10:15 AM | 3 Comments
  • Mon, May 23, 11:59 AM
    • The hawkish reversal at the Fed over the past few sessions has sent the yield on the two-year Treasury note to 0.91% - it's highest level since March 15. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to just 1.85%, bringing the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year down to its lowest point since November 2007.
    • Then, as now, the Fed mostly shrugged off the yield curve's reliability as an indicator of a coming slowdown.
    • Fedspeak today and over the weekend continues to try and lay the groundwork for a June move. Short-term rate markets see just shy of a 30% chance of a hike next month. Markets await the week's main event - a speech from Janet Yellen at 1:15 ET on Friday.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, IEI, TYO, UBT, UST, DLBS, DTYS, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, ITE, GSY, LBND, TYD, DTYL, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Mon, May 23, 11:59 AM | 1 Comment
  • Thu, May 19, 10:12 AM
    • The Fed nearly went all-in yesterday, with FOMC minutes stopping just short of promising a June rate hike. The minutes are not an actual transcription of the policy meeting, but instead a negotiated and agreed upon summary of what took place. The line about "most participants" thinking it likely a June rate hike would be appropriate was not in there by accident.
    • If history is any guide, markets have a way bigger stack than the Fed, and a swoon in equity prices a la January could have the central bank backtracking. It should make for an interesting couple of weeks.
    • The Dow (NYSEARCA:DIA), S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY), and Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) are all lower by 0.9% in early action (though Dow component Wal-Mart is up 8.6%), and the 10-year Treasury yield is pulling back from its big jump yesterday - currently lower by 2 basis points to 1.83%. TLT +0.55%, TBT -1.1%
    • Fed Funds futures are pricing in a one-in-three chance of a June hike.
    | Thu, May 19, 10:12 AM | 52 Comments
  • Wed, May 18, 12:17 PM
    • "Grab the aspirin," writes Peter Boockvar, following yesterday's surprisingly hawkish Fedspeak, and ahead of this afternoon's release of the April FOMC minutes.
    • There's still a very small chance of a June rate hike priced into Fed Funds futures, but the odds of a move by year-end have risen to 86% from 56% a couple of days ago, and the 10-year Treasury yield is up five basis points today to a multi-week high of 1.82%. TLT -1.15%, TBT +2.3%
    • The "troika" of Yellen, Fischer, and Dudley remain the drivers of Fed policy, meaning speeches tomorrow from Fischer and Dudley, and then one on May 27 from Yellen all of a sudden have taken on even greater importance.
    | Wed, May 18, 12:17 PM
TBT Description
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses and interest income earned on cash and financial instruments, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.
See more details on sponsor's website
Country: United States
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