ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) - NYSEARCA
  • Fri, Feb. 26, 8:39 AM
    • U.S. Q4 GDP was revised up to 1% from 0.7% in the first estimate, and against expectations for a downward revision to 0.4%.
    • The upward adjustment is mostly thanks to higher-than-previously thought inventories, and a downward revision to imports. These changes were only partially offset by slight cuts in state and local government spending, and personal consumption expenditures.
    • The price index, however, slowed - up just 0.4% vs. 1.3% in Q3. Core prices gained 1% vs. 1.3% in Q3.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield has jumped four basis points to 1.76% on the strong headline number. TLT -0.9%, TBT +1.8%
    • The dollar (UUP, UDN) has moved higher since the report, and is now flat on the session.
    | Fri, Feb. 26, 8:39 AM
  • Wed, Feb. 24, 10:17 AM
    • Manufacturing isn't of great import in today's U.S. economy goes the bullish argument alongside the fall of manufacturing PMIs into contraction zone.
    • What then to make of the services PMI diving to 49.8 in February from 53.7 the previous month (and vs. expectations for no change)?
    • Alongside that was a far steeper than expected decline in new home sales in January.
    • The S&P 500 is lower by 1.3% and the Nasdaq by 1.5%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled all the way to 1.66%. TLT +1.2%, TBT -2.4%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Wed, Feb. 24, 10:17 AM | 8 Comments
  • Mon, Feb. 22, 12:52 PM
    • According to the technicians on his team, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield might not bottom until it hits 28 basis points, says Guggenheim Global CIO Scott Minerd, who reminds it was technical analysis that led the team a year ago to predict $25 oil.
    • Helping the move in Treasurys will be actions by the ECB and BOJ, as Minerd sees both central banks taking benchmark rates to as low as negative 100 basis points.
    • In that scenario, he says, the German 10-year Bund rate could fall to negative 50 bps, so considering the current Bund/Treasury spread of 150 bps, it's not difficult to imagine U.S. 10-years falling below 1%.
    • Previously: Guggenheim launches its own total return bond ETF (Feb. 11)
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Mon, Feb. 22, 12:52 PM | 14 Comments
  • Fri, Feb. 19, 8:51 AM
    • Core CPI was up a perky 0.3% in January vs. 0.2% in December and 0.2% expected. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI gained 2.2%, while overall CPI was higher by 1.4%.
    • In other fixed-income related news, hawkish Cleveland Fed boss Loretta Mester doesn't disappoint her fans, saying the economy remains strong and she continues to expect a gradual series of rate increases.
    • Lower earlier, the 10-year Treasury yield is now up four basis points to 1.78%. TLT -0.15%, TBT +0.3% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Fri, Feb. 19, 8:51 AM | 8 Comments
  • Wed, Feb. 17, 2:36 PM
    • The averages are at session highs after the FOMC minutes confirmed the central bankers to be far less positive about the economic outlook than they were six weeks earlier when they hiked interest rates.
    • Some on the FOMC said the "dots" - which currently show expectations for four rate hikes this year - are confusing markets, and discussed adding fan charts to their outlook to convey how uncertain their forecasts are. This would lead to another issue though: Whether that "fan" should be allowed to extend below zero ... There's that negative rate talk again.
    • The Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) is higher by 2.25%, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPYby 1.7%, and DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIAby 1.65%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is ahead by six basis points to 1.84% TLT -0.8%, TBT +1.6%
    • Previously: Fed minutes show worry over market selloff, lack of inflation (Feb. 17)
    | Wed, Feb. 17, 2:36 PM | 36 Comments
  • Thu, Feb. 11, 7:45 AM
    • The global stock market plunge is intensifying this morning, with Europe down nearly 3% and U.S. index futures almost 2%. Hong Kong fell 3.85% after returning from holiday. Shanghai and Tokyo were closed.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by ten basis points to 1.57%. Maybe even more interesting, the January 2017 contract for Fed Funds futures has risen to exactly the same price as the Feb 2016 contract - meaning traders are putting 100% probability on no Fed rate hikes this year. It'll be even more fun when the Jan 2017 contact moves ahead of Feb 2016 - meaning the pricing in of a chance of a rate cut even as the Fed insists tighter policy is still necessary.
    • Up later is day two of Janet Yellen's Congressional testimony. Will she change for positive tone?
    • TLT +1.65%, TBT -3.3% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, IEI, TYO, UBT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, LBND, ITE, DTYL, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Thu, Feb. 11, 7:45 AM | 5 Comments
  • Fri, Feb. 5, 8:41 AM
    • Along with 151K jobs gained in January vs. estimates for 190K, December's 292K job gain was revised down to 262K, and November's 252K gain was revised higher to 280K. We'll call the revisions a wash.
    • The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% vs. 5% expected, and the labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.7%.
    • The broader U-6 unemployment rate held steady at 9.9%. It was 11.3% a year ago.
    • The average workweek rose by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours. Average hourly earnings gained a big $0.12 to $25.39 (more than 5% annualized). On a Y/Y basis, wages were higher by 2.5%.
    • Initially maybe keying on the dip in unemployment and fast wage growth, the 10-year Treasury yield popped to 1.87%, but has since fallen to 1.84%. TLT +0.3%, TBT -0.6% premarket
    • Previously: Payrolls miss, but UE rate dips to 4.9% (Feb. 5)
    | Fri, Feb. 5, 8:41 AM | 5 Comments
  • Wed, Feb. 3, 8:23 AM
    • January's private-sector job gain of 205K moderated from December's big 267K advance (revised from an originally reported 257K), but it beat expectations of 190K.
    • Job growth in the three months ended in January averaged 224K vs. 185K in the previous three months, and 199K in the three months prior to that. What's a central banker to do?
    • The 10-year Treasury yield remains higher by three basis points to 1.88%.
    • TLT -0.45%, TBT +0.9% premarket
    • Full ADP report
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Wed, Feb. 3, 8:23 AM | 5 Comments
  • Tue, Feb. 2, 9:50 AM
    • An early slump in equities and a resumption of the downtrend in oil has money pouring into Treasurys today, with the 10-year yield lower by a full seven basis points to 1.88% - a level not seen since April.
    • Thirty-day Fed Funds futures are now pricing in less than a 100% chance of even one rate hike this year.
    • TLT +1.2%, TBT -2.4%
    | Tue, Feb. 2, 9:50 AM | 3 Comments
  • Mon, Feb. 1, 10:25 AM
    • The PMI edged up to 48.2 in January from 48 in December, but remained at a level signalling an overall decline in manufacturing activity.
    • New Orders and Production, however, both rose above 50.
    • Employment fell to 45.9 from 48. Supplier deliveries rose to 50 from 49.8, and Backlogs rose to 43 from 41.
    • Prices remained at 33.5.
    • Already higher ahead of the report, the 10-year Treasury yield remains up by three basis points to 1.95%. TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.8%
    | Mon, Feb. 1, 10:25 AM
  • Fri, Jan. 29, 10:22 AM
    • The Chicago PMI surged 12.7 points in January to 55.6 - its highest level in a year. The move is from a Q4 which was the weakest three months since Q3 of 2009.
    • Even with January's big print, the three month trend moves up to just 48.7 from 47.7 in December.
    • A jump in New Orders to 58.8 led the way this month, and Production also popped back over the 50 level. Order Backlogs also rose sharply, but remain below 50 for the 12th straight month. Supplier Deliveries was the only component to decline, falling 4.5 points to 49.2.
    • MNI Chief Economist Philip Upglow says PMI gains of such high magnitude tend to not be maintained, so he expects a February pullback.
    • Full report
    • Treasurys have given back so of their big early advance, but the 10-year yield remains lower by three basis points to 1.95%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Fri, Jan. 29, 10:22 AM
  • Fri, Jan. 29, 8:40 AM
    | Fri, Jan. 29, 8:40 AM | 8 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 27, 2:10 PM
    • The S&P 500 (SPY -0.1%) and DJIA (DIA -0.3%) remain near flat, and the Nasdaq (QQQ -0.9%) modestly lower after the FOMC considerably softens its recent hawkish tone.
    • Trading at 2.05% ahead of the announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield slips to 2.02%. TLT -0.2%, TBT +0.4%
    • Gold adds $6 per ounce to $1,121 - right about its highest level since late October. GLD flat on the session.
    • The dollar (UUP -0.2%) weakens across the board, and is now modestly lower today.
    • Previously: Fed waves white flag (Jan. 27)
    | Wed, Jan. 27, 2:10 PM | 19 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 26, 2:20 PM
    • The script says yields need to go higher on days when equities rally hard, but the 10-year Treasury yield just inched below 2% - off one basis point on the session. The Fed, of course, began its two-day policy meeting today and no one expects a rate hike when the decision is announced tomorrow.
    • The policy statement should hopefully contain some hint as to whether the central bankers - given the tumult in markets and plunge in bond yields since moving in December - are backing off threats to boost rates further at their March meeting.
    • Fed Funds futures are pricing in about a one-in-three chance of a 25 basis point move in March.
    • TLT +0.2%, TBT -0.4%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Tue, Jan. 26, 2:20 PM
  • Wed, Jan. 20, 8:44 AM
    • With global markets in full retreat and U.S. stock index futures lower by nearly 2%, money is flowing into government paper - the 10-year yield is down nine basis points to 1.97%.
    • Except for a brief flirtation on Friday, 2% hadn't been breached since October, and the yield was about 2.30% when the Fed hiked short-term rates in December.
    • Maybe more frustrating for the central planners at the Eccles Building, the two-year Treasury yield - which they would seemingly have a lot more control of - has plunged to 0.82% from 1.09% in the wake of December's rate hike.
    • FOMC speakers continue to remain on record as promising four rate hikes this year. Futures markets now say one more at most, and Ray Dalio contends the Fed's next move will be to ease. Might the Fed say "uncle" this week?
    • Earlier: December CPI and Housing Starts come in soft.
    • TLT +1.2%, TBT -2.4%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Wed, Jan. 20, 8:44 AM | 8 Comments
  • Fri, Jan. 15, 8:52 AM
    • Retail sales unexpectedly slipped in December, and the NY Fed's manufacturing survey shows business activity in that region tumbling at the fastest pace since the Great Recession.
    • Remaining below zero for the sixth straight month, the general business conditions index fell 13 points to -19.4%. New orders plunged a full 17 points to -23.5 and shipments declined 19 points to -14.4. Indexes for the six-month outlook also fell sharply - down 26 points to 9.5, the lowest level since 2009.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 11 basis points to 1.99% - its first time below 2% in three months, and now off about 30 basis points since the Fed hiked a month ago. TLT +1.5% premarket, TBT -3%
    • Also helping Treasurys is what is now a 2%+ decline in major U.S. stock index futures. SPY -2.4% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Fri, Jan. 15, 8:52 AM | 50 Comments
TBT Description
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses and interest income earned on cash and financial instruments, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.
See more details on sponsor's website
Country: United States
ETF Hub
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio: Visit Seeking Alpha's ETF Hub