ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF
 (TBT)

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  • Aug. 24, 2015, 9:30 AM
    • Futures on U.S. markets hit limit down and were halted shortly before the open, pointing to another ugly day amid an accelerating selloff across all issues.
    • The Nasdaq 100 Index contract his its daily 5% limit, and Dow mini futures and S&P e-Mini joined in, with Dow Futures dropping 800 points and the e-Mini down more than 94 points.
    • Treasurys picked up: TLT +1.5% premarket; TBT -3.3%.
    • The dollar slid in spot trading: -1.7% against Swiss Franc, -3.9% against yen. The euro gained 2.4% against the dollar.
    • ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, PSQ, SPXU, TQQQ, SPXL, RSP, QID, SQQQ, QLD, DOG, DXD, RWL, UDOW, EPS, SDOW, DDM, VFINX, QQEW, QQQE, SPLX, SFLA, QQXT, SPUU, UDPIX, OTPIX, RYARX
    | Aug. 24, 2015, 9:30 AM | 15 Comments
  • Aug. 21, 2015, 3:11 PM
    | Aug. 21, 2015, 3:11 PM | 3 Comments
  • Aug. 20, 2015, 10:56 AM
    • Existing home sales hit a new post-financial crisis high and the Phily Fed index rose past expectations, but the Treasury market is firmly focused on deflation signals across the globe - be it plunging Chinese stocks, sliding emerging markets currencies, or copper and oil plumbing multi-year lows.
    • The Dow is lower by 1.1%, S&P 500 by 1%, and Nasdaq by 1.5%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by four basis points to 2.09% - a level not seen since the start of May. TLT +0.8%, TBT -1.6%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Aug. 20, 2015, 10:56 AM | 7 Comments
  • Aug. 19, 2015, 2:16 PM
    • The averages bottomed out more than 1% lower just before noon, and have been given an extra charge from the FOMC minutes which at first glance show maybe a smaller-than-expected sentiment for an imminent rate hike.
    • The Dow (DIA -0.1%), S&P 500 (SPY -0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ +0.1%) have all returned to nearly flat.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield fell as low at 2.13% in the aftermath of the minutes from 2.23 earlier in the session. The rebound in stocks, however, is drawing some money out of fixed income, and the yield has bounced back to 2.15%. TLT +0.4%, TBT -0.8%
    • Oil continues sharply lower, and is within a few cents of trading with a $39 handle.
    • Gold (GLD +1.1%)  has added to gains post-minutes, now up 1.2% on the session at $1,130 per ounce.
    • Previously: FOMC minutes: Getting closer to rate hike (Aug. 19)
    | Aug. 19, 2015, 2:16 PM | 34 Comments
  • Aug. 18, 2015, 8:47 AM
    • July housing starts of 1.206M edged up from the revised June estimate and were 10.1% above the rate of one year ago. Expectations had been for 1.19M.
    • Single-family housing starts were 782K, up 12.8% from the previous month.
    • The homebuilders put in a nice day yesterday following a rise in the NAHB builder confidence index, and the ITB is up another 1% in premarket action. The XHB is up 0.5%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is up one basis point at 2.18% TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.8%
    • Full report
    | Aug. 18, 2015, 8:47 AM | 18 Comments
  • Aug. 17, 2015, 4:33 PM
    • Major stock indexes rebounded from opening declines to finish modestly higher, after a solid housing report showed some strength on a lightly traded Monday.
    • Homebuilding stocks paced gainers, including Toll Brothers (TOL +2.3%); Ryland (RYL +2.1%); KB Home (KBH +3.1%), Lennar (LEN +2.7%) and Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC +2.9%).
    • The S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 2,102.44; for 2015, it's up 2.12%. The move up came despite a grim reading from New York manufacturing that sent bond yields lower. TLT +0.5%; TBT -0.8%.
    • Volumes overall were about 20% below recent average.
    • Sector gains were broadly distributed, with a flat energy sector as the laggard. Healthcare stocks performed well, paced by dollar volume leaders Gilead Sciences (GILD +0.7%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +1.1%) and Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) +1.1%.
    | Aug. 17, 2015, 4:33 PM | 12 Comments
  • Aug. 17, 2015, 8:48 AM
    • The headline general business conditions index tumbled 19 points to -14.9 - the lowest level since the economy was in recession in 2009. Nineteen percent of those surveyed said conditions had improved over the past month, while 34% said they'd worsened.
    • New Orders fell 12 points to -15.7, and shipments plunged 22 points to -13.8.
    • Prices paid was little-changed at 7.3 and the employee indexes indicated just a bit of softening in labor markets.
    • The index for future business activity rose seven points to 33.
    • Full report
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by five basis points to 2.15%. TLT +0.6%, TBT -1.2%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    • Previously: Empire State Survey at lowest level since 2009 at -14.9 (Aug. 17)
    | Aug. 17, 2015, 8:48 AM | 9 Comments
  • Aug. 12, 2015, 12:07 PM
    • Unlike some other Fed heads of late, FRBNY President Bill Dudley isn't ready to say if September will be the month the FOMC decides to hike rates. "[I'm] not going to tell you when, because I don't know the answer."
    • Dudley was taking questions after a speech in Rochester. The prepared remarks contained no discussion of monetary policy.
    • Fed Funds futures are predicting about a 40% chance of a 25 basis point move at the Sept. FOMC meeting, down from 54% just a few days ago as events in China rattle global markets. The 10-year Treasury yield has dipped to its lowest level of the summer, off another five basis points today to 2.09%.
    • Speaking about China's devaluation, Dudley says a weaker currency is understandable given the slowdown in that nation's economy.
    • TLT +0.65%, TBT -1.3%
    • ETFs: SHY, BIL, PLW, VGSH, STPP, SHV, GOVT, FLAT, SCHO, FTT, EGF, DTUS, DTUL, SST, TUZ, TAPR
    | Aug. 12, 2015, 12:07 PM | 12 Comments
  • Aug. 11, 2015, 9:48 AM
    • China's surprise devaluation overnight has sparked renewed selling in commodities, a sizable selloff in Europe, and the beginnings of a rough day in equities in the U.S.
    • Oil is re-testing its bear market lows, down 1.5% to $43.50 per barrel. Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) is off 3.2% to $2.32 per pound, and the grains (NYSEARCA:JJG) are lower across the board. Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) is seeing some interest though, up 0.5% to $1,109.50 per ounce.
    • Germany's 2.4% decline is leading Europe lower, and the Dow is off nearly 1% in the early going.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by eight basis points to 2.15%. TLT +1.2%, TBT -2.4%. Checking short-term interest rate futures, they're higher, meaning a smaller chance of Fed rate hikes. The October 2015 Fed Funds contract is up two basis points to $99.76 - pricing in a Fed Funds rate in October roughly 10 basis points higher than it is today.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, IEI, TYO, UBT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, TENZ, GSY, TYD, LBND, ITE, DTYL, DLBL, TYBS, DFVL, FIVZ, VUSTX, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | Aug. 11, 2015, 9:48 AM | 9 Comments
  • Aug. 7, 2015, 8:50 AM
    • A September rate hike just got more certain after the U.S. economy added 215K jobs in July and the unemployment rate held at 5.3%.
    • 10-year Treasury prices initially knee-jerked down after the print, but have returned to about flat. The yield is flat at 2.22%. TLT +0.4%, TBT -0.8%
    • The dollar spiked higher and has remained there. UUP +0.3%
    • Both gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) and oil (NYSEARCA:USO) have turned modestly lower since the report, and stock index futures (SPY, DIA, QQQ) have added to losses, now down about 0.35%.
    • Previously: Inline jobs number means September rate hike still likely (Aug. 7)
    • Previously: Jobs up 215K in July; UE rate flat at 5.3% (Aug. 7)
    | Aug. 7, 2015, 8:50 AM | 35 Comments
  • Aug. 5, 2015, 9:42 AM
    • The ADP reported private sector job gains of 185K in July, shy of the 210K consensus. Revisions to previous months were minor, but on balance were negative.
    • Word from the Fed is it would take really lousy economic numbers between now and the mid-September FOMC meeting to prevent a rate hike, and this report - while slow - would hardly fall into the "lousy" category.
    • ADP job gains have averaged 198K for the first seven months of this year vs. 248K for the last six months of 2014.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is at its session high, up four basis points to 2.27%. TLT -0.85%
    • Fed Funds futures continue to price in a 50% chance of a 25 basis point hike in September.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Aug. 5, 2015, 9:42 AM | 8 Comments
  • Aug. 4, 2015, 2:38 PM
    • It would take a "significant deterioration" in the data for him not to vote to hike rates in September, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart tells the WSJ.
    • Lockhart's views are especially notable as he's considered a centrist on the FOMC whose views typically mirror the consensus there.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield has jumped a few ticks higher since his comments hit, and is now up six basis points on the session to 2.21%. TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2%.
    • 30 Day Fed Funds futures are still only pricing in about a 50% chance of a 25 basis points move in September.
    | Aug. 4, 2015, 2:38 PM | 20 Comments
  • Jul. 30, 2015, 8:48 AM
    • Based on the market action, a September rate hike just got somewhat more likely after the first estimate of Q2 GDP growth came in at 2.3%. The print missed estimates, but Q1 was revised to +0.6% from -0.2%, so the full measure of the report could be deemed a beat.
    • 30-day Fed Funds futures for October are 12 basis points lower than July, suggesting about a 50/50 chance of a 25 basis point hike when the kids go back to school. January 2016 futures have priced in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point hike, plus the beginnings of a chance of a 2nd boost to rates.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield - initially moving up to 2.32% after the GDP number - has slipped back to 2.29%, flat on the session. TLT +0.2%, TBT -0.4%
    • ETFs: SHY, IEF, PST, IEI, BIL, TYO, DTYS, UST, VGSH, SHV, VGIT, SCHO, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, DTUS, DTUL, SST, TUZ, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | Jul. 30, 2015, 8:48 AM | 9 Comments
  • Jul. 29, 2015, 2:11 PM
    • As expected, the FOMC left rates unchanged, but didn't commit itself one way or the other to any action in September. This could be interpreted dovishly as one might suppose today's statement would begin to lay the groundwork for a September hike were that the Fed's intention.
    • The Dow (DIA +0.5%), S&P 500 (SPY +0.5%), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ +0.1%) all added a few points in the immediate aftermath of the 2 ET statement, but have returned to levels seen before the news.
    • Treasurys continue to take on water, with the 10-year yield up five basis points on the session to 2.30%. TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2%
    • Fed Funds futures are pricing in about a 1-in-3 chance of a 25 basis points move in September.
    | Jul. 29, 2015, 2:11 PM | 8 Comments
  • Jul. 28, 2015, 10:25 AM
    • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index tumbled to 90.9 in July, down from 99.8% in June, and missed expectations for just a minor decline to 99.1.
    • The Conference Board's Lynn Franco notes a less optimistic outlook for the labor market combined with macro jitters out of Greece and China, but the Index remains at levels associated with an expanding economy and relatively confident consumer.
    • Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months fell to 14.7% from 17.9%, while those expecting conditions to worsen rose to 10.7% from 10.2%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield remains higher by four basis points to 2.26%. TLT -0.8%, TBT +1.6%
    • Previously: Consumer Confidence decline in July at 90.9 (July 28)
    | Jul. 28, 2015, 10:25 AM
  • Jul. 20, 2015, 9:58 AM
    • It's not too much of a surprise given his status as the leading hawk mouthpiece at the Fed, but putting a number on things sort of makes it news. St. Louis Fed boss Jim Bullard - speaking to Fox Business - says the Fed needs to get ahead of the inflation curve with a rate hike in September, and he puts the odds of such a move at greater than 50%.
    • Bullard is not a voter on the FOMC this year.
    • His comments look to have rattled the long end a bit, with the 10-year yield jumping four basis points to 2.39%. TLT -0.5%, TBT +1%.
    • Fed Funds futures aren't pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike until December
    | Jul. 20, 2015, 9:58 AM | 14 Comments
TBT Description
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses and interest income earned on cash and financial instruments, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.
See more details on sponsor's website
Country: United States
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