ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) - NYSEARCA
  • Dec. 2, 2015, 1:13 PM
    • The ADP earlier estimated U.S. private-sector payroll growth of 217K in November up from 196K in October and against expectations for 183K.
    • Fed speakers Janet Yellen and Dennis Lockhart did everything except explicitly promise a rate hike this month.
    • The two-year Treasury yield is up 3.9 basis points to 0.946% - it's highest level in 5.5 years, and the 10-year yield is higher by six basis points to 2.20%. Today's jobs data contrasts with yesterday's manufacturing data which showed that sector of the economy in contraction (and which sent the ten-year yield sliding down to 2.14%).
    • TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.8%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, PLW, GOVT, FTT, TENZ, LBND, EGF, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX, TAPR
    | Dec. 2, 2015, 1:13 PM | 4 Comments
  • Dec. 1, 2015, 10:09 AM
    • November's 48.6 read puts the ISM index into contraction for the first time in three years. It's also the weakest print since July 2009.
    • Economists expected the gauge to rise to 50.5 from 50.1 in October, and strategists are scrambling to see if there's precedent for the Fed launching a rate hike cycle with the ISM below 50.
    • Turning to the subindexes ...
    • New Orders fell to 48.9 from 52.9, Production 49.2 from 52.9, Supplier Deliveries 50.6 from 50.4, Prices 35.5 from 39, Backlogs 43 from 42.5, Employment 51.3 from 47.6.
    • At 2.24% ahead of the number, the 10-year Treasury yield is now at 2.18%, off three basis points on the session. TLT +0.6%, TBT -1.2%
    • Full report
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Dec. 1, 2015, 10:09 AM | 26 Comments
  • Nov. 24, 2015, 8:41 AM
    • Reacting not to in-line Q3 GDP numbers (the government's 2nd estimate has growth at 2.1%), but instead to Turkey's downing of a Russian warplane, Europe down nearly 2%, and U.S. stock index futures at session lows, off 0.8%, the 10-year Treasury yield is lower by three basis points to 2.21%.
    • The yield on the benchmark has now returned to nearly the level it was at prior to the October employment report - which more or less cemented the fact of a December rate hike.
    • TLT +0.3%, TBT -0.6%
    | Nov. 24, 2015, 8:41 AM | 1 Comment
  • Nov. 20, 2015, 10:39 AM
    • The U.S. economic expansion has many more years to go, says St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard - strong words considering this particular expansion has already gone about two years past the median length.
    • Bulls on long-dated Treasurys might take heart from Bullard's comments as the central banker typically gets his forecasts wrong (to be fair, the fortune-teller business is a tough one). Indeed, the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 2.23% from 2.26% since the remarks.
    • Bullard sees unemployment falling into the low-4% range next year, and says monthly job gains need to be no more than 130K to keep up with population growth.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Nov. 20, 2015, 10:39 AM | 7 Comments
  • Nov. 18, 2015, 8:47 AM
    • Speaking at the TCH Conference (The Clearing House), Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart says the job market has already met the criteria necessary for tighter monetary policy.
    • He says he was ready to hike rates in September, but decided to defer to the majority of the FOMC.
    • The boost is coming next month, and now it's time to focus on what the pace of rate hikes might look like. According to Lockhart, there's nothing predetermined, but he expects this tightening cycle to be "relatively gradual or shallow."
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is up three basis points to 2.29%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Nov. 18, 2015, 8:47 AM | 20 Comments
  • Nov. 13, 2015, 12:52 PM
    • "Call it the triumph of hope over experience," says HSBC Securities interest rate strategist Larry Dyer. "The consensus forecast, including the Fed, is priced to the idea that nothing bad will happen."
    • He sees the 10-year Treasury yield falling all the way to 1.5% by the end of next year - a full 150 basis points less than the Fed (and most economist) forecasts.
    • As for next month, he expects a rate hike mainly because the Fed has said it would, not because economic fundamentals justify it.
    • The 10-year yield is lower by three basis points today to 2.28% after this morning's soft retail sales and PPI numbers.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Nov. 13, 2015, 12:52 PM | 14 Comments
  • Nov. 6, 2015, 8:47 AM
    • Alongside the big October jobs number (271K jobs gained vs. 142K expected), September job gains were revised lower by 5K; August's revised higher by 17K.
    • The average workweek was flat at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings rose a big $0.09 to $25.20. They're up 2.5% Y/Y.
    • The labor force participation rate was steady at 62.4% as the headline UE rate fell to 5% from 5.1%. The broader U-6 unemployment rate fell to 9.8% from 10% - one year ago, it was 11.5%.
    • Employment gains were seen across all industries, with the notable exception being the troubled mining industries - down another 5K last month, and now having given up 109K jobs since peaking last December.
    • It's all systems go for a rate hike in one month, and the 10-year Treasury yield is up eight basis points to 2.31%. TLT -0.8%, TBT +1.6%
    • The two-year Treasury yield spikes 8.8 basis points to 0.93%.
    • The January Fed Funds futures contract dips 3.5 basis points to 99.695, now pricing in about a 75% chance of a rate hike before year-end.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, STPP, FLAT, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    • Previously: Big beat on jobs number (Nov. 6)
    | Nov. 6, 2015, 8:47 AM | 17 Comments
  • Nov. 4, 2015, 8:26 AM
    • The private sector added 182K jobs in October, according to ADP. That comes against expectations for a gain of 185K, and September's 190K print (revised down from 200K).
    • Other months also saw modest downward revisions.
    • Job gains over the past three months have averaged about 185K; for all 2015, about 193K.
    • Full report
    • Holding at 2.21% ahead of the number, the 10-year Treasury yield is now lower by two basis points to 2.19%. TLT +0.2%, TBT -0.4% premarket
    • The bottom line is this is a status quo report, and status quo seems to be enough to get the FOMC to hike rates in December. Short-term rate futures contracts are pricing in about a 50% chance of a 25 basis point move.
    | Nov. 4, 2015, 8:26 AM | 5 Comments
  • Nov. 3, 2015, 1:40 PM
    • With stocks having just completed their best month in four years and starting off November with more gains, there's not a lot of demand for the safety of gold and Treasurys.
    • Today's 1.8% decline in gold brings its price back to $1,115 per ounce, pretty much canceling out the rally it began right around Labor Day which took the metal to nearly $1,200. GLD -1.7%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, continues a big move higher, up five basis points on the session to 2.22% - also right about where it stood on Labor Day, and up from 1.90% at the start of October. TLT -0.9%, TBT +1.8%
    • Completing a triumvirate of news maybe telling us the economy doing better, oil is ahead 4.4% on the session to $48.18 per barrel. USO +4.4%
    | Nov. 3, 2015, 1:40 PM | 19 Comments
  • Nov. 2, 2015, 10:13 AM
    • The 50.1 read for October is the lowest level since May 2013. September's print was 50.2.
    • Considered more forward-looking, the New Orders sub-index suggests maybe a bottom in the overall ISM, as it rose to 52.9 from 50.1 Production perked up to 52.9 from 51.8.
    • Employment fell to 47.6 (lowest since Aug. 2009) from 50.5; Supplier Deliveries 50.4 vs. 50.2; Backlogs 42.5 vs. 41.5.; Prices 39 vs. 38.
    • Full report
    • Treasury yields are ignoring the soft headline number, maybe instead focused on nice gains in New Orders and Production, or perhaps the melt-up in stock prices in October (best month in four years). The 10-year yield remains higher by two basis points to 2.17%. TLT -0.45%, TBT +0.9%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Nov. 2, 2015, 10:13 AM | 2 Comments
  • Oct. 29, 2015, 9:25 AM
    • In its first estimate of Q3 GDP, the government says the economy grew 1.5% during the quarter, down from 3.9% in Q2, but roughly inline with consensus forecasts for 1.6%.
    • Lower gasoline prices seem to be taking effect, with consumer spending rising at a 3.2% annualized pace, and outlays on durable goods up 6.7%.
    • Inventories gained just $56.8B in the quarter after jumping more than $100B in each of the first two quarters.
    • Exports rose 1.9%, and imports 1.8% (held down by the falling price of oil).
    • Inflation remains soft, with PCE prices up 1.2%; core PCE gained 1.3%.
    • While sluggish, an inline number seemingly keeps the Fed on track for a December rate hike. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.13% vs. 2.08% prior to the GDP print.
    • TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, TENZ, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Oct. 29, 2015, 9:25 AM
  • Oct. 28, 2015, 2:18 PM
    | Oct. 28, 2015, 2:18 PM | 31 Comments
  • Oct. 27, 2015, 10:49 AM
    • The FOMC will have some more weak economic numbers to chew on as it begins its two-day policy meeting today, with consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and PMI services all coming in well below expectations.
    • There's also disappointing Q3 results from the likes of Cummins (and more job cuts), UPS, and lodging REITs to consider.
    • Very few are predicting a rate hike tomorrow, but possibly there will be some hint as to whether the central bank plans to keep its promise to hike before year-end even as the economic data continues to soften.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is down four basis points to 2.02%. TLT +0.45%, TBT -0.9%
    • Thirty-day Fed Funds futures are pricing in about zero chance of a rate hike tomorrow and just a one-in-three chance of a boost in December.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, DTYS, UST, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | Oct. 27, 2015, 10:49 AM
  • Oct. 26, 2015, 10:16 AM
    | Oct. 26, 2015, 10:16 AM
  • Oct. 16, 2015, 4:16 AM
    • U.S. banks are feasting on Treasuries in the latest sign investors expect policy makers to delay raising interest rates.
    • Commercial lenders boosted their holdings to a record $2.15T at the end of last month, translating to a stake almost double the amount owned by China, the biggest U.S. foreign creditor.
    • According to futures data, the probability the Fed will increase rates in December has now dropped to 30% from 70% odds at the beginning of August.
    • The ten-year yield, which dipped below 2% earlier this week, is flat at 2.01%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, BIL, UBT, DLBS, TLO, PLW, VGSH, STPP, SHV, GOVT, FLAT, SCHO, FTT, TENZ, LBND, EGF, DTUS, DLBL, TYBS, DTUL, SST, TUZ, VUSTX, TAPR, TFLO, USFR
    | Oct. 16, 2015, 4:16 AM | 11 Comments
  • Oct. 15, 2015, 2:28 PM
    • Nomura is halting new share creations in the $6.2B Next Funds Nikkei 225 Leveraged ETF and two others (they trade in Tokyo), citing the liquidity of the underlying Nikkei 225 futures and total AUM.
    • Assets in the double-levered ETF have doubled in the last five months, reports Bloomberg, and the impact of ETF-driven futures trading appears to be leaking into the actual stock market. - juicing action on both up and down days. A BAML report says leveraged/inverse ETFs need to buy or sell about $285M in futures for every 1% swing in stocks.
    • Is the U.S. next? The two largest levered ETFs are the $2.7B ProShares Ultrashort Barclays 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:TBT) and the $1.8B ProShares Ultrashort S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SDS). They're indeed popular, with a combined nearly 9K real-time alert subscribers on Seeking Alpha.
    | Oct. 15, 2015, 2:28 PM
TBT Description
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses and interest income earned on cash and financial instruments, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.
See more details on sponsor's website
Country: United States
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