ProShares Short 7-10 Year Treasury ETF(TBX)- NYSEARCA
  • Yesterday, 8:03 AM
    • Five-year Treasurys are completing their worst month since February 2015, but Morgan Stanley recommends buying the dip as the team there heard nothing at Jackson Hole that sways their view of no rate hike next month.
    • This week's August payrolls report presents an "obvious risk," say strategists Matthew Hornbach and Guneet Dhingra, but they continue to believe no move is coming in September.
    • The yield on the five-year note climbed to 1.24% in Friday, and has since retreated to 1.19%, still up a full 16 basis points in August.
    • According to JPMorgan, August jobs numbers have fallen shy of estimates in each of the last five years. The team at that bank continues to be a believer in five-year paper.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, UST, DTYS, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, ITE, GSY, TYD, DTYL, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, HYDD
    | Yesterday, 8:03 AM | 1 Comment
  • Wed, Aug. 24, 3:40 PM
    • Today's strong auction of five-year Treasury notes showed record demand from indirect bidders, mostly foreign central banks.
    • "I think there is a very large Hint here," says Mark Grant of Hilltop Securities, noting central bankers talk to each other and it's likely overseas central bank would not be jumping in to shortish-term paper in a large way if they had been tipped off about an imminent rate hike.
    • Source: Amey Stone at Barron's
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, UST, DTYS, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, ITE, GSY, TYD, DTYL, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, HYDD
    | Wed, Aug. 24, 3:40 PM | 1 Comment
  • Thu, Jul. 7, 2:08 PM
    • With $13.4T in Treasury paper out there, the U.S. government bond market is the largest and most liquid one in the world. But at least one fund manager worries whether he'll be able to get his hands on any in some future bull move. "The scarcity factor is there but it really becomes palpable during periods of stress when yields immediately collapse,’’ says Christopher Sullivan. "You may be shut out of the bond market just when you need it the most.’’
    • Source: Min Zeng and Christopher Whittall in the WSJ
    • The Fed owns more than 20% of all Treasury debt outstanding, a near-double since before the financial crisis.
    • Meantime in the U.K., the BoE owns about 25% of that country's debt; the BOJ more than 33% of Japan's paper; the ECB about 15% of Germany's bonds.
    • Toss out paper with negative yields (20-year JGBs just went below zero), and there's not a lot of high-grade, positive-yielding paper out there. Those feeling the pinch the most are pension funds and life insurance firms. For this reason, money manager Nigel Jenkins expects any rise in bond yields to be quickly met with a wave of buying from the yield-starved institutions.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, JGBS, JGBD, IEI, TYO, UST, PLW, DTYS, VGIT, GOVT, BUNL, TBX, SCHR, FTT, ITE, JGBL, GSY, BUNT, TYD, DTYL, GGOV, EGF, JGBT, DFVL, JGBB, TAPR, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Thu, Jul. 7, 2:08 PM | 1 Comment
  • Mon, Jun. 27, 10:35 AM
    | Mon, Jun. 27, 10:35 AM | 27 Comments
  • Wed, Jun. 15, 4:18 PM
    | Wed, Jun. 15, 4:18 PM | 19 Comments
  • Thu, Jun. 9, 3:26 PM
    • This month's FOMC meeting also brings with it updated economic projections as well as the dot plot showing Fed members' expectations of where the Fed Funds rate is headed over time.
    • Led by Ellen Zentner, the team at Morgan Stanley expects "sweeping changes" to growth forecasts and the longer-run nominal equilibrium rate - that's currently at 2%, but downward revisions from just three members would send it to a "one" handle.
    • Assessment of the longer-run neutral Fed Funds rate has been already been trending down, and downward revisions from four would send that to 3% from 3.25%.
    • As for the "dots," the median expectation for 2016 will remain centered on two hikes, but Morgan Stanley expects only a December move.
    • The medan dot for 2017 will fall to 1.625% (3 hikes) from 1.875%, and for 2018 to 2.375% from 3%.
    • The decline in the intended pace of hikes is likely to support the belly of the yield curve relative to the wings.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, UST, DTYS, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, ITE, GSY, TYD, DTYL, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Thu, Jun. 9, 3:26 PM
  • Mon, Jun. 6, 3:11 PM
    • The Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index fell sharply in May in what was the biggest one-month decline since the end of the 2009 recession. April was also revised lower. The gauge has now fallen every month in 2016.
    • Jefferies' Thomas Simons says the index's declines in February and March stood in major to contrast to strong gains in the nonfarm payrolls data even though the two have a strong correlation. At the moment, it looks like the divergence is being resolved toward the weaker signal.
    • Then there's The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index (ETI). It also declined last month after gaining in April. The overall trend this year is flat after years of growth since the recession. The Conference Board's Gad Levanon says the number suggest modest employment growth in coming months, but fall well short of predicting job losses.
    • Previously: Yellen takes note of weakening labor trend (June 6)
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, UST, DTYS, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, ITE, GSY, TYD, DTYL, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Mon, Jun. 6, 3:11 PM | 16 Comments
  • Fri, Jun. 3, 8:49 AM
    | Fri, Jun. 3, 8:49 AM
  • Wed, Jun. 1, 2:21 PM
    • While the Beige Book sounded a bit of a subdued note on economic growth, it took definite notice of tight labor markets, trouble finding workers, and moderate wage growth across much of the country.
    • On balance, the report gives a pretty good idea of at least part of the reasoning behind the recent hawkish turn from Fed speakers.
    • Down earlier, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has returned to flat on the session at 1.85%. The odds of a summer rate hike are just over 50%, according to Fed Funds futures.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, UST, DTYS, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, ITE, GSY, TYD, DTYL, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Wed, Jun. 1, 2:21 PM
  • Mon, May 23, 11:59 AM
    • The hawkish reversal at the Fed over the past few sessions has sent the yield on the two-year Treasury note to 0.91% - it's highest level since March 15. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to just 1.85%, bringing the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year down to its lowest point since November 2007.
    • Then, as now, the Fed mostly shrugged off the yield curve's reliability as an indicator of a coming slowdown.
    • Fedspeak today and over the weekend continues to try and lay the groundwork for a June move. Short-term rate markets see just shy of a 30% chance of a hike next month. Markets await the week's main event - a speech from Janet Yellen at 1:15 ET on Friday.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, IEI, TYO, UBT, UST, DLBS, DTYS, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, ITE, GSY, LBND, TYD, DTYL, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Mon, May 23, 11:59 AM | 1 Comment
  • Wed, May 18, 8:57 AM
    • The spread between the yield on 10-year and 2-year Treasurys has fallen to just 94 basis points, that's down from 165 bps a year ago, and the slimmest margin since Dec. 2007.
    • As with the 2007 experience, most economists assure the yield curve isn't flashing a recession warning, but instead is reflecting goings-on having nothing to do with the economy. In 2016, it's overseas central banks and their negative interest rates to blame, says Deutsche's chief international economist Torsten Slok.
    • Money managers brush it off as well: “The bond market had better predictive powers in the past than it does now,” says Craig Brothers, who manages a $3B municipal bond portfolio.
    • Let's return in a year and see where things stand.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, UST, PLW, DTYS, VGIT, STPP, GOVT, FLAT, TBX, SCHR, FTT, ITE, GSY, TYD, DTYL, EGF, DFVL, TAPR, TBZ, USFR, DFVS, TYNS, TFLO
    | Wed, May 18, 8:57 AM
  • Wed, May 11, 1:19 PM
    • A full 90% of rate hikes over the past 25 years were highly anticipated by the market, says Goldman Sachs, which defines that by meaning they were at least 70% discounted.
    • If history holds, it would negate the chance of any move by the FOMC at either its June or July meetings. A June hike, says Goldman economist Daan Struyven, "would be a unique outcome in modern Fed history."
    • A check of short-term rate markets finds them not pricing in more than a 50% chance of a boost in interest rates until the December FOMC meeting.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, UST, DTYS, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, ITE, GSY, TYD, DTYL, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Wed, May 11, 1:19 PM | 9 Comments
  • Fri, Apr. 1, 11:25 AM
    • The relationship between the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index and the 10-year Treasury yield has been a pretty steady one - when one rises, so does the other. There's been a divergence of late though, with the data since the year began consistently topping expectations, but the Treasury yield falling.
    • The Bondvigilantes wonder whether it's dovish Fed rhetoric knocking maybe 60 basis points from 10-year yields.
    • Also maybe at work are the actions of global central banks - benchmark rates in Europe and Japan are below zero, the German 10-year Bund yield is 0.15%, and 10-year JGBs are at negative six basis points! Even Italian 10-year yields are at 1.22%. By comparison, the 10-year U.S. Treasury near 2% is positively towering.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, IEI, TYO, UBT, UST, DLBS, DTYS, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, ITE, GSY, LBND, TYD, DTYL, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Fri, Apr. 1, 11:25 AM | 9 Comments
  • Wed, Mar. 16, 11:32 AM
    | Wed, Mar. 16, 11:32 AM | 4 Comments
  • Wed, Mar. 9, 3:40 PM
    • The consensus view at the moment holds that policy divergence - in which most global central banks are easing while the Fed tightens - is unsustainable. Not so fast, says Goldman's Jan Hatzius. Even if the Fed hikes three times this year (which he expects), the wide gap between U.S. and overseas rates wouldn't be unusual on an historical basis.
    • A check of the scorecard finds the spread between U.S. and German two-year paper is the widest since 2006, and for the U.S. and Japan, the widest since 2008.
    • This just reflects the narrower-than-normal gap of the past few years, says Goldman. Go back further, and the divergence will be at about the post-1985 average even if the Fed boosts rates three times in 2016.
    • At the moment, short-term rate futures are pricing in only a 73% chance of even one Fed rate hike this year. Goldman not only expects three, but also sees the 10-year yield jumping all the way to 2.75% from the current 1.89%.
    • ETFs: IEF, SHY, PST, IEI, TYO, BIL, DTYS, UST, PLW, VGSH, SHV, VGIT, STPP, SCHO, GOVT, FLAT, TBX, SCHR, FTT, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, EGF, DTUS, SST, DTUL, TAPR, TUZ, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, USFR, TYNS, TFLO
    | Wed, Mar. 9, 3:40 PM
  • Thu, Feb. 11, 7:45 AM
    • The global stock market plunge is intensifying this morning, with Europe down nearly 3% and U.S. index futures almost 2%. Hong Kong fell 3.85% after returning from holiday. Shanghai and Tokyo were closed.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by ten basis points to 1.57%. Maybe even more interesting, the January 2017 contract for Fed Funds futures has risen to exactly the same price as the Feb 2016 contract - meaning traders are putting 100% probability on no Fed rate hikes this year. It'll be even more fun when the Jan 2017 contact moves ahead of Feb 2016 - meaning the pricing in of a chance of a rate cut even as the Fed insists tighter policy is still necessary.
    • Up later is day two of Janet Yellen's Congressional testimony. Will she change for positive tone?
    • TLT +1.65%, TBT -3.3% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, IEI, TYO, UBT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, LBND, ITE, DTYL, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Thu, Feb. 11, 7:45 AM | 5 Comments
TBX Description
ProShares Short 7-10 Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Index.
See more details on sponsor's website
Country: United States
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