Wed, Nov. 30, 2:14 PM
- Retail Metrics: The retail industry specialist expects chain stores to report a 1.1% increase in comparable sales during November. The estimate on October retail comparable sales was revised up to 1.5% from 1.0%. Both marks arrive against a deflation and low traffic headwind in the sector.
- NPD Group: The research firm plays meteorologist by warning that the lack of "true" winter weather will hit some apparel and shoe sellers.
- FBR Capital: The firm points to a strong month for Bath & Body Works (NYSE:LB).
- Piper Jaffray: The retail analyst team is cautiously optimistic that Costco (NASDAQ:COST) is off to a good start.
- November has been a stellar month for Target (NYSE:TGT) and Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), up 16% and 18% respectively. Both retailers trade with a ~14 forward PE ratio which has some traders buzzing that's still room left to run.
- Amazon dominated a lot of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday talk, but it was Wayfair (W +4.6%) that may have posted the most impressive online sales growth vs. expectations. Shares of Wayfair are still 28% below their 52-week high, although valuation isn't for the feint of heart.
- At home on Seeking Alpha, there's been some good discusssion on the impact of the reduction of SNAP benefits (nutrition assistance) in the U.S. on the retail sector. Tomorrow's earnings report from Dollar General (NYSE:DG) and the firm's conference call Q&A could shine a light on that wildcard.
- Retail ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXD, FDIS, RCD, PMR, CNDF, FTXD, JHMC, IBUY.
- Previously: Black Friday channel checks show pockets of strength (Nov. 28)
- Previously: Department store sales in positive territory for November (Nov. 29)
- Previously: Cyber Monday wrap and retail outperformers (Nov. 29)
Tue, Nov. 29, 10:06 AM
- Cyber Monday online sales increased 12.1% to $3.45B, according to an updated tally from Adobe.
- Mobile spending was up 34% Y/Y to $1.07B to account for 31% of sales.
- Conversion rates were highest for desktops at 6.3%, while smartphones (2.8%) and tablets (5.1%) were still above holiday averages.
- Holiday shopping season sales through November 28 are up 7.6% to $39.97B.
- The S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) is up 1.81% over the last week to outpace broad market averages. The list of outperformers over the last week -- which factors in the pre-Thanksgiving buzz, Black Friday reports, and Cyber Monday numbers -- includes Target (NYSE:TGT), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS), Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT), Staples (NASDAQ:SPLS), DSW (NYSE:DSW), Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Dollar General (NYSE:DG), Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL), The Children's Place (NASDAQ:PLCE) and Best Buy (NYSE:BBY). An interesting sidenote is that all the retail names listed above topped the return of Amazon for the 5-session period.
Sun, Nov. 27, 7:11 PM
- ShopperTrak reports a 1% drop in store visits during the two-day period covering Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
- The slight dip in traffic was largely anticipated as e-commerce growth continues to soar. Online sales for the Black Friday to Thanksgiving time frame were up 17.7% to $5.27B, according to an estimate from Adobe.
- The Super Bowl of online shopping starts at midnight. The National Retail Federation expects 122M Americans to shop online tomorrow on Cyber Monday vs. 121M last year.
- Early analysis indicates that Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) through its Jet.com add-on and Target (NYSE:TGT) via hard-hitting promotions are significant players in keeping up with Amazon online this holiday season.
- Previously: Black Friday wrap: Records fall, retail winners and losers (Nov. 25)
- Retail ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXD, FDIS, RCD, PMR, CNDF, FTXD, JHMC.
Fri, Nov. 25, 10:47 AM
- Piper Jaffray thinks holiday toy sales will be "back-end loaded" this year as e-commerce continues to play a bigger role.
- The investment firm reels in its forecast for year-over-year seasonal growth to 4% to 5% against a tough comparison to last year's Star Wars-infused holiday.
- Some reads on e-commerce toy sales have arrived more encouraging than the anecdotal Black Friday store checks by firms like PJ. Overall YTD toy sales are up +6%, according to NPD Group.
- The pace of holiday toy sales is still something to watch for investors of Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT), Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS), JAAKS Pacific (NASDAQ:JAKK) - but if you're long Spin Master Corp (OTC:SNMSF) it's already shaping up as a great holiday season. Intense demand for Hatchimals has Spin Master trading at an all-time high on the Toronto exchange. Shares are up 74% YTD. This Google Trends chart of searches for "Hatchimal" explains it all.
- What's a Hatchimal? The official Hatchimal website offers the best display of the innovative toy. Big sellers of the coveted $60 toy include Wal-Mart (WMT +0.7%), Target (TGT +0.6%) and Toys "R" Us.
Fri, Nov. 25, 7:13 AM
- Target (NYSE:TGT) says it's off to a "strong start" to the holiday shopping season.
- The company says millions of guests visited Target stores across the country. The Target website has already had its biggest day ever and experienced double-digit growth.
- “Based on early results, it’s clear that our deals are cutting through. We expect this momentum to continue throughout the weekend and into next week as we offer Target’s guests a truly unprecedented opportunity to save 15 percent off nearly everything online and in our stores this Sunday and Monday.” notes CEO Brian Cornell.
- Source: Press Release
Thu, Nov. 24, 10:12 AM
- Target (NYSE:TGT) says it will sell nearly all of its merchandise for 15% off in a two-day Cyber Monday promotion.
- The 15% discount is set to go live online early Sunday morning and will be applied at checkout both online and in stores during the two-day sale. The company says no online promotion code or in-store coupon will be required to catch the price reduction.
- Last year, Target only ran the 15% deal for online custmers on Cyber Monday.
- Target says it's ready to meet the Cyber Monday online crush on the back end.
- "We have been furiously pressure-testing the site with both simulated and real traffic," notes CIO Mike McNamara.
- The aggressive move by Target could give it a jump on other retailers and Amazon in bringing in traffic and adds pressure on the pricing front.
- Retail ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXD, FDIS, RCD, PMR, CNDF, FTXD, JHMC
Wed, Nov. 23, 4:48 AM
- If you use aloe vera gel from Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT) or CVS, you might be soothing burns with sugar rather than extract from a plant.
- According to Bloomberg, multiple lab tests of the retailer's store-brand gel showed no traces of aloe vera, even though it's listed as the first or second ingredient in every case.
- How could this happen? The FDA doesn't approve cosmetics before they hit store shelves, so it's up to suppliers to make good on their promises.
Tue, Nov. 22, 10:01 AM
- Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) is up 11% after delivering a solid quarter that included an increase in Family Dollar acquisition benefits.
- Burlingon Stores (NYSE:BURL) races 15% higher after its Q3 results topped expectations.
- DSW (DSW +7.5%) and Chico's (CHS +7.3%) also turned in solid reports to round out the good cheer in the sector.
- Other retailers on the move include Dollar General (DG +3.1%), Big Lots (BIG +3.8%), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI +1.9%), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO +3.5%), Five Below (FIVE +2.8%), and Fred's (FRED +1.8%).
- Even the bigger chains are bringing in buyers, with Target (TGT +1.3%), Wal-Mart (WMT +1.5%), Staples (SPLS +1.8%) and Office Depot (ODP +3.2%) all ahead of broad market averages.
- The general theme in the retail sector today is margin improvement as some merchandise and operational costs were shown to have been reeled in to improve profitability.
Wed, Nov. 16, 3:31 PM
Wed, Nov. 16, 9:17 AM
- Gainers: GLBS +58%. SINO +45%. GSL +39%. DCIX +39%. STEM +30%. ESEA +22%. SHIP +20%. NM +19%. DAC +19%. ORIG +19%. LEI +18%. TOPS +16%. NMM +18%. SB +15%. SBLK +11%. DSX +9%. JKS +9%. GNK +9%. YRD +7%. TGT +8%. GOGL 8%. EGLE 6%. SAEX 7%. RPRX 7%. NNA 7%. HTBX 7%. NAK 6%.
- Losers: PDLI -15%. LNTH -11%. FLXN -9%. AQMS -7%. VSAT -6%. SID -5%.
Wed, Nov. 16, 7:37 AM
- Shares of Target (NYSE:TGT) are spiking in early trading after the company's e-commerce business took off in Q3.
- E-commerce sales were up 26% during the quarter, a striking acceleration from the +16% pace seen in Q2 and a mark that is level with Amazon's sales growth last quarter in North America.
- TGT +8.83% premarket to $77.75. Shares are at their highest level since the middle part of May.
- Previously: Target beats by $0.21, beats on revenue (Nov. 16)
- Previously: Target higher on earnings beat (Nov. 16)
Wed, Nov. 16, 6:54 AM
- Target (NYSE:TGT) reports comparable-store sales fell 0.2% in Q3.
- Digital channel sales rose 26% for the quarter.
- Key sales stats: Number of transactions: -1.2%; Average transaction amount: +1%; Selling price per unit: +3.5%; Units per transaction: -2.5%.
- Gross margin rate improved 80 bps to 30.2%.
- SG&A expenses rate -40 bps to 20.3%.
- EBITDA margin rate expanded 130 bps to 9.9%.
- EBIT margin rate grew 90 bps to 6.4%.
- REDcard penetration +200 bps to 24.3%.
- Number of stores -5 Y/Y to 1,800.
- Q4 Guidance: Comparable sales: -1% to +1%; GAAP and Adjusted EPS: $1.55 to $1.75.
- FY2016 Guidance: GAAP EPS: $4.67 to $4.87; Adjusted EPS: $5.10 to $5.30.
- TGT +6.09% premarket.
Wed, Nov. 16, 6:32 AM
Tue, Nov. 15, 5:30 PM
Wed, Nov. 9, 6:47 AM
- Voters in Arizona, Colorado and Maine voters approved boosting the minimum wage in their states to $12 per hour. Each state will see the hikes make their way to the $12 level after a series of graduated increases.
- The state of Washington approved increasing the minimum wage to $13.50 by 2020.
- The restaurant industry has already been under pressure, with labor costs as a percentage of sales on the rise. Other pockets of retail will also feel a sting from the higher minimum wage boost.
- Restaurant stocks: CAKE, CBRL, DNKN, DPZ, DRI, EAT, JACK, MCD, RRGB, RT, SONC, WEN, BWLD, BDL, QSR, CHUY, BLMN, PZZA, TXRH, DENN, KKD, BBRG, DFRG, BOBE, RUTH, IRG, DIN, HABT, NDLS, BOJA, PBPB, PLKI, FRSH, RAVE, LOCO, TACO, PZZA, KONA, BGR, BJRI, CHUY, FRS, CBRL, GTIM, TAST, WING, BOJA, ZOES, FOGO, ARCO, SHAK, YUM.
- Retail stocks: TGT, WMT, BIG, FIVE, DG, DLTR.
- Related ETF: BITE.
Wed, Nov. 2, 10:02 PM| Wed, Nov. 2, 10:02 PM | 15 Comments