Tibco Is Falling Behind The Competition
TIBCO Beats, But There's A Lot Left To Prove
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Stephen Simpson, CFA
TIBCO's Return To License Growth Frustratingly Inconsistent
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Mar. 18, 2014, 5:50 PM
- dealReporter observes a recent change in Tibco's (TIBX +1.9%) bylaws makes it easier for an activist investor to obtain board seats.
- Interestingly, the move comes after one very prominent activist investor, Dan Loeb, exited a Tibco position that once stood at 5M shares (good for a 2.7% stake). There were hopes Loeb would push Tibco to spin off its business optimization unit (generally growing faster in recent quarters) from its traditional middleware ops.
Feb. 27, 2014, 9:42 AM
- First Solar (FSLR +5.8%) has been upgraded to Outperform by Baird a day after diving due to a Q4 miss and soft Q1 guidance.
- Cypress Semi (CY -5.3%) has been cut to Sector Perform by Pac Crest.
- Tibco (TIBX +2.2%) and Manhattan Associates (MANH +1.1%) have been started at Buy by B. Riley as part of a broader enterprise software coverage launch.
- Care.com (CRCM +5.8%) has been upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan after selling off yesterday in response to its Q4 results.
- ChannelAdvisor (ECOM +2.9%) has been started at Outperform by William Blair.
- Radware (RDWR +2.3%) has been started at Outperform by Wedbush.
Feb. 14, 2014, 5:38 PM
Feb. 14, 2014, 5:04 PM
- In addition to establishing a BlackBerry position, Dan Loeb's Third Point LLC took a 600K-share stake in Baidu (BIDU), a 7.6M-share stake in T-Mobile USA (TMUS) and a 1M-share stake in NXP (NXPI) during Q4. At current levels, the positions are respectively worth $100M, $237M, and $56M. NXPI +1% AH.
- On the other hand, Loeb unloaded the 4.4M-share Tibco (TIBX) position he had at the end of Q3. There were hopes Loeb would use his Tibco stake to push for a spinoff of the company's faster-growing Business Optimization unit. TIBX -1.7% AH.
- Loeb also cut his remaining Yahoo (YHOO) position in half to 8M shares. Third Point once had a 60M-share stake in Yahoo, before striking a deal last August to sell 40M shares back to the company and leave its board.
- Third Point's 13F
Feb. 4, 2014, 4:29 PM
- Tableau's (DATA) Q4 revenue and EPS ($81.5M and $0.20) respectively beat consensus forecasts by $14.5M and $0.20. Y/Y revenue growth accelerated to 95% from Q3's 90%.
- License revenue (71% of total revenue, drives future maintenance revenue) grew 93%, up from Q3's 90%. Maintenance revenue (29% of total) doubled to $23.4M after growing 91% in Q3.
- The data visualization/analytics upstart added 1,800+ customers and closed 179 $100K+ deals in seasonally strong Q4, up from 1,500+ and 119 in Q3. The company's deferred revenue balance rose 28% Q/Q to $69.2M.
- Like many fast-growing enterprise software names, Tableau continues to invest aggressively: sales/marketing spend rose 73% Y/Y to $40.1M, and R&D spend 76% to $18.4M.
- Rival QLIK +1.3% AH. The company reports on Feb. 20. Tableau's license numbers stands in stark contrast to the Y/Y license revenue decline rival Tibco (TIBX) reported for its Spotfire analytics platform for the November quarter.
- CC at 5PM ET. Q4 results, PR.
Jan. 31, 2014, 9:50 AM
- Citrix (CTXS +2.5%) has been upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan, and to Buy by Nomura. The votes of confidence come a day after shares tumbled in response to the company's soft guidance and disclosure that CEO Mark B. Templeton will be retiring within a year. Several firms had downgraded Citrix in response to the news.
- Tibco (TIBX -1.6%) has been cut to Underweight by Barclays.
- Vimpelcom (VIP +0.5%) has been upgraded to Buy by Citi. HSBC cut the Russian mobile carrier to Neutral two days ago.
- International Rectifier (IRF +2.3%) has been upgraded to Buy by Citi. Shares sold off yesterday following the chipmaker's FQ2 beat.
- Autobytel (ABTL -5%) has been cut to Hold by Ascendiant Capital.
Jan. 21, 2014, 9:57 AM
- 3D Systems (DDD -3%) has been cut to Neutral by Credit Suisse.
- Seagate (STX +2.1%) has been upgraded to Overweight by Morgan Stanley, and rival Western Digital (WDC +0.5%) has been upgraded to Outperform by BMO. Wesern reports tomorrow, and Seagate on Jan. 27.
- SolarCity (SCTY -3.3%) has been cut to Neutral by JPMorgan. Deutsche started shares at Buy last week.
- SanDisk (SNDK -2.3%) has been cut to Neutral by BofA/Merrill. Q4 results arrive tomorrow.
- NetApp (NTAP +2.2%) has been upgraded to Buy by Lake Street Capital.
- InvenSense (INVN -2.8%) has been cut to Hold by Needham.
- FireEye (FEYE -3.7%) has been cut to Neutral by JPMorgan following a huge run-up in the wake of the Mandiant deal and the company's guidance hike.
- Altera (ALTR +2.8%) has been upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan ahead of Wednesday's Q4 report.
- Tibco (TIBX -2.4%) has been cut to Neutral by Wedbush. Shares rallied last week on a report suggesting Dan Loeb is set to make an activist push.
- NetSuite (N +1.1%) has been upgraded to Buy by Maxim.
- Violin Memory (VMEM -3.7%) has been cut to Underweight by Barclays.
- Motorola Solutions (MSI +1.8%) has been upgraded to Buy by Citi.
- LG Display (LPL +3.2%) has been upgraded to Buy by BofA/Merrill.
Jan. 16, 2014, 1:44 PM
- The Information reports Dan Loeb has been building up his Tibco (TIBX +5.8%) stake, and could make an activist push. Shares of the middleware/analytics software vendor have spiked higher in response.
- Loeb owned 4.425M Tibco shares at the end of Q3, down from 5M at the end of Q2 and good for a 2.7% stake. SA Pro contributor Akram's Razor argued in September Loeb could push for a spinoff/IPO of Tibco's Business Optimization unit, which includes its Spotfire analytics platform.
- After many quarters of strong growth, Spotfire saw a Y/Y license revenue decline in Tibco's November quarter (tough comps were blamed). That contrasts sharply with the 90% Y/Y revenue growth analytics rival Tableau saw in Q3.
Dec. 20, 2013, 12:46 PM
Dec. 20, 2013, 9:11 AM
Dec. 19, 2013, 5:38 PM
Dec. 19, 2013, 5:05 PM
- Tibco (TIBX) guides on its FQ4 CC for FQ1 revenue of $247M-$253M and EPS of $0.17-$0.18, below a consensus of $255.4M and $0.21.
- License revenue for the seasonally weak quarter is expected to be in a range of $78M-$84M, which compares with a year-ago level of $78.3M.
- Shares now -8.3% AH.
- FQ4 results, details
Dec. 19, 2013, 4:51 PM
- Though Tibco's (TIBX) FQ4 revenue beat consensus by $3M, the company's license revenue (+2% Y/Y to $139.7M) was only in-line with a guidance range of $136M-$144M.
- Tibco's license revenue performance has been closely watched, both due to its role in driving service/maintenance revenue (+10% in FQ4 to $175.7M) down the line, and because growth was negative earlier this year. Tibco blamed sales execution, but analysts raised questions about middleware price competition from IBM/Oracle.
- 193 $100K+ deals and 31 $1M+ deals were closed in FQ4, compared with 195 and 25 a year ago. Opex rose 12% Y/Y, thanks largely to a 16% increase in sales/marketing spend.
- CC underway, guidance should be provided. FQ4 results, PR.
Dec. 19, 2013, 4:06 PM
- TIBCO Software (TIBX): FQ4 EPS of $0.42 beats by $0.03.
- Revenue of $315.5M. Shares +2.1% AH. (PR)
Dec. 19, 2013, 12:10 AM
Dec. 18, 2013, 5:35 PM
TIBCO Software Inc. provides infrastructure and business intelligence software. Its software platform enables customers to create flexible, event-driven applications and deliver real-time, actionable insights.
Industry: Business Software & Services
Country: United States
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