Sat, Jan. 9, 10:47 AM
- The success of the retail sector during the holiday season came into focus after a number of chains issued their holiday sales reports last week and research firms weighed in with data-driven analysis.
- Lesson #1 - Early and late: 25% of all shoppers purchased a Christmas present before Halloween, while the Black Friday to Cyber Monday period disappointed. A late flurry of shopping was a boon for many large retail chains, as well as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), FedEx (NYSE:FDX), and UPS (NYSE:UPS). Trading around anecdotal reports of Black Friday traffic now looks like an exercise in futility.
- Lesson #2 - Women over men: Sales of women's apparel were strong during the two-month period, up 10%, while demand for men's apparel tailed off significantly. A microcosm of the trend is the +8% comp reported by L Brands (NYSE:LB) - while The Men's Wearhouse (NYSE:MW) is in a -72% 3-month funk. The disastrous performance in the electronics category (BBY, CONN, HGG) reinforces the trend.
- Lesson #3 - The sweet spot of retail was in the middle: Luxury sellers (COH, KORS, RL, TIF) had a weak holiday season as F/X challenges and lackluster Asian tourism factored in, while discounters also were scrambling due to a high level of promotional activity. The $2-gas benefit seemed to help in the middle where Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Target (NYSE:TGT), Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST), TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), and The Children's Place (NASDAQ:PLCE) set up shop.
- Lesson #4 - No slowdown in online : Holiday online sales rose 20% Y/Y. Brands such as Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA) and Victoria's Secret that sell easily through e-commerce channels are well-positioned to benefit from the trend, although for a large part of the apparel sector the e-commerce mix is a margin cruncher. Just ask Gap (NYSE:GPS), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN), and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO).
- Sources: Planalytics.com, Chain Store Age, company holiday sales reports
Dec. 29, 2015, 12:11 PM
- A report from MasterCard on a 7.9% increase in holiday spending is creating some optimism that retailers selling in certain categories could surprise with Q4 earnings.
- Double-digit sales gains were recorded for furniture spending (RH, PIR, HVT, BBBY, ETH, HOFT, OTCPK:BEST, W, LZB, OTCPK:LEFUF, BSET, WSM, RH, KIRK) and women's apparel (NWY, LB, ASNA) while the men's apparel and electronics categories were left behind.
- A late sales rush is also usually a positive sign for Signet (NYSE:SIG) and Tiffany (NYSE:TIF).
- Previously: Late rush may have turned holiday season around (Dec. 28)
Dec. 21, 2015, 8:34 AM
- Jefferies takes a shine to Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) at current valuation. The investment firm upgrades the luxury retailer to a Buy rating from Hold.
- Tiffany lands a price target of $100 from Jefferies to represent 39% upside potential from Friday' closing price of $71.84. Shares of Tiffany haven't traded in triple digits for over 11 months as F/X challenges have cut deeply into results.
Nov. 25, 2015, 9:26 AM
- The average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. has now dropped to $2.06 per gallon - a mark that is 27% lower than where gas prices stood heading into the holiday period last year. Despite the extra dollars in the wallets of consumers, most forecasts for holiday retail sales are on the modest side (below 4%).
- The extended period of sub-$3 gas prices in the U.S. hasn't exactly lit consumer spending across broad retail on fire (just ask Wal-Mart) - although it has stoked auto sales for the Detroit Three (GM, F, FCAU). The regional casino sector (ISLE, PENN, BYD, ERI, MTN, MCRI) and cruise line stocks (NCLH, RCL) have also benefited more than major chain stores. Some have suggested that lower gas prices are also an understated driver for Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) which both score high on customer stickiness.
- What next? Seeking Alpha's Stock Pitch Contest on retail is still open until November 30 amid the reset on consumer spending expectations. Current long ideas include PLAY, FRAN, CASY, SKX, WMT, PSUN, HGG, PRTY, TJX, TA, VSTO - while short bets on WMAR, TIF, RT, AMZN, UA, LB, and OUTR are on record.
- Related ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, PBJ, IYK, IYC, FXD, PEJ, FDIS, RHS, FSTA, SCC, UCC, RCD, PMR, PEZ, UGE, PSL, PSCC, PSCD, SZK, BITE.
Nov. 24, 2015, 7:10 AM
- Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) reports global sales increased 4% in Q3 on a constant currency basis. Comps were +1% on a local-currency basis.
- Sales growth by region (constant currency): Americas -5%, Asia-Pacific +6%, Japan +34%, Europe +9%, Other +8%.
- Gross profit rate +70 bps to 60.2% as lower input costs contributed to the gain.
- SG&A expenses +1% Y/Y.
- Inventory -8% to $2.3B.
- The company's effective tax rate during the quarter was 35.5%, level with the mark from a year ago.
- Guidance: Tiffany expects net earnings to fall 5% to 10% in 2016.
- Previously: Tiffany misses by $0.05, misses on revenue (Nov. 24 2015)
- TIF -6.1% premarket to $71.79.
Nov. 24, 2015, 6:42 AM
- Tiffany (NYSE:TIF): Q3 EPS of $0.70 misses by $0.05.
- Revenue of $938.2M (-2.2% Y/Y) misses by $32.8M.
Nov. 23, 2015, 5:30 PM
Nov. 19, 2015, 12:36 PM
- Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) declares $0.40/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 2.15%
- Payable Jan. 11; for shareholders of record Dec. 21; ex-div Dec. 17.
Nov. 19, 2015, 10:12 AM
- Mizuho lowered its bullish scenario on Tiffany (TIF +0.5%) with a price target reduction to $90 from $106.
- Shares of the luxury retailer are still rated at Buy by the Japanese financial services firm.
- Most analysts covering Tiffany have been caught in the F/X trap which has peeled off profit from Tiffany's earnings. Expectations in China have also run ahead of results.
- Shares of Tiffany are down 18% over the last three months.
Sep. 8, 2015, 5:58 PM
- Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) announces it won a trademark case against Costco (NASDAQ:COST) after a judge ruled the term "Tiffany" is not a generic term.
- Costco has already stopped using the term in describing its ring products.
- Tiffany has been more aggressive over the last few years in protecting its intellectual property.
Aug. 27, 2015, 7:13 AM
- Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) reports global sales increased 7% in Q2 on a constant currency basis.
- Sales growth by region (constant currency): Americas -2%, Asia-Pacific +9%, Japan +27%, Europe +19%, Other -27%.
- Gross profit rate +40 bps to 59.9% as lower wholesale diamond costs factored in.
- SG&A expenses +9% Y/Y.
- Inventory -6.9% to $2.357B.
- The company's effective tax rate during the quarter was 34.2% vs. 34.4% a year ago.
- Guidance: Tiffany expects net earnings to fall 2% to 5% for the full year to $3.99-$4.12.
- Previously: Tiffany misses by $0.05, misses on revenue
- TIF -7.7% premarket to $78.51.
Aug. 27, 2015, 7:03 AM
- Tiffany (NYSE:TIF): Q2 EPS of $0.86 misses by $0.05.
- Revenue of $990.5M (-0.2% Y/Y) misses by $19.5M.
Aug. 26, 2015, 5:30 PM
Aug. 20, 2015, 9:39 AM
- Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) declares $0.40/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 1.75%
- Payable Oct. 13; for shareholders of record Sept. 21; ex-div Sept. 17.
Aug. 12, 2015, 10:16 AM
- Luxury retail stocks are off to a poor start again after Fossil (FOSL -2.1%) reported last night and with increased concerns over China.
- Analysts note it's not just sales in China which are at risk of lower F/X conversion rates, but European luxury sales could dip to due to the reliance of heavy buying (high average transaction prices) from Asian tourists.
- Luxury slumpers today include Movado (MOV -2.7%), Coach (COH -4.8%), Kate Spade (KATE -4.1%), Tiffany (TIF -4.3%), Luxottica (LUX -3.6%), Ralph Lauren (RL -2.2%), Michael Kors (KORS -4.1%), and Guess (GES -2.9%).
- Previously: Fossil beats by $0.30, misses on revenue (Aug. 11 2015)
- Previously: Mixed results for Fossil in Q2, shares -4% AH (Aug. 11 2015)
Aug. 11, 2015, 10:00 AM
- The currency devaluation fired off in China is hitting select consumer goods and services stocks.
- China Southern Airlines (ZNH -18.2%) and China Eastern Airlines (CEA -17.4%) are feeling the sharpest impact.
- Macau gaming stocks trade weaker with Melco Crown (MPEL -2.7%), Las Vegas Sands (LVS -2%), Wynn Resorts (WYNN -3.1%), and MGM Resorts (MGM -0.8%) all lower.
- Luxury retailers are also feeling a pinch due to the F/X headache. Decliners include Tiffany (TIF -2.1%), Ralph Lauren (RL -1.3%), Gucci (OTC:PPRUF, OTCPK:PPRUY), Prada (OTCPK:PRDSF), Hermes (OTCPK:HESAF), Fossil (FOSL -1.5%), Michael Kors (KORS -0.6%), Coach (COH -1.7%), Movado (MOV -1.8%), Kering (OTC:PPRUF), Burberry (OTCPK:BURBY), and Swatch (OTCPK:SWGAY -5.4%).
Tiffany & Co. is a holding company, which through its subsidiaries engages in jewelry merchandise. The company also sells timepieces, leather goods, sterling silverware, china, crystal, stationery, fragrances and accessories. It operates through five business segments: Americas, Asia-pacific,... More
Industry: Jewelry Stores
Country: United States
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