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iShares TIPS Bond ETFNYSEARCA
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  • Mon, Nov. 14, 8:40 AM
    • Roughly $2.61B was pulled from fixed income ETFs last week, according to FactSet. But it was all about corporate bond funds - the investment-grade LQD, and high-yield JNK and HYG - which together saw more than $5B in outflows.
    • Treasury ETFs saw sizable inflows despite also declining sharply in value. Leading the way in the government category was the TIPS ETF (NYSEARCA:TIP), which attracted $1.34B.
    | Mon, Nov. 14, 8:40 AM | 5 Comments
  • Sat, Nov. 12, 9:04 AM
    • The president-elect's pro-business agenda is inherently "unfriendly" to bonds, Jeff Gundlach tells Barron's, as it will lead to stronger economic growth and renewed inflation.
    • Look for Trump to "amp up the deficit" to pay for infrastructure and other programs - producing an inflation rate of 3% and nominal GDP growth of 4-6%. Given that, there's no way the 10-year Treasury yield stays near its current level of 2.15%, and it could rise as high as 6% in the next four or five years. [Serious question: How does "amp up the deficit" differ in any way from what was done in 2009? Can anyone say "shovel-ready"?]
    • For now, Gundlach (DFLEX, DBLFX, DBL) remains a fan of TIPS (NYSEARCA:TIP), and has swapped a good deal of his government paper for those inflation-protected securities.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Sat, Nov. 12, 9:04 AM | 205 Comments
  • Thu, Nov. 10, 1:32 PM
    • While the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has gained 22 basis points to 2.08% since the election, the yield on the same-maturity inflation-linked Treasury is up just five basis points. That's a pretty sizable relative move, says Standish Mellon's Raman Srivastava.
    • The conventional thinking here is that the new president's policies such as lower taxes, lower regulation, and more infrastructure spending are going to lead to higher inflation.
    • TIPS ETFs: TIP, VTIP, SCHP, IPE, LTPZ, STPZ, TIPZ, STIP, TPS, TDTT, TIPX, TDTF, SIPE
    | Thu, Nov. 10, 1:32 PM | 1 Comment
  • Thu, Nov. 10, 11:06 AM
    | Thu, Nov. 10, 11:06 AM | 49 Comments
  • Mon, Nov. 7, 3:37 PM
    | Mon, Nov. 7, 3:37 PM | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Oct. 18, 4:59 AM
    • Tracking the differential in the yield of TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) and conventional Treasury notes renders an indicator known as the BEI - the breakeven inflation rate.
    • The BEI gets its name because it represents a point of indifference - the level of inflation at which you’d receive approximately the same total return on your TIPS as you would on a conventional T-note if CPI inflation averages that rate over the next 10 years.
    • Back in February, the 10-year BEI cratered at 1.18%. It's now retesting the 1.67% resistance area. If it break, and stays, above 1.70%, the next upside objective is the 1.90% level, SA author Brad Zigler says.
    • If the pattern holds, investors could readjust their portfolio’s fixed income exposure and duration with the following ETF play: The 10-year BEI is proxied by the price ratio of the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TIP) versus the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:IEF).
    • Zigler notes that the TIP/IEF ratio broke above its 100-week simple moving average ("SMA" - see chart here). "Without going into a bunch of technical interpretation, suffice it to say that this sets up TIPS as the better buy for income-focused investors - for the long term."
    | Tue, Oct. 18, 4:59 AM | 8 Comments
  • Mon, May 23, 1:20 PM
    • "Why deflation is dead," is the title of the latest weekly commentary from BlackRock global chief investment strategist Richard Turnhill.
    • It's not just about higher energy prices, he says, The rising dollar has been a headwind to inflation, and that's beginning to abate. He also notes prices of more stable service-based components of the CPI have begun rising, as are wages, and consumer inflation expectations.
    • TIPS are pricing in inflation of just 1.4% over the next ten-years, and prices have slipped in the past few days as investor ratchet up rate-hike expectations.
    • That's a mistake, says Turnhill, who expects the Fed to remain pretty cautious on tighter policy. "Rising inflation means owning TIPS in lieu of nominal Treasurys can be an important hedge for fixed income portfolios."
    • ETFs: TIP, VTIP, SCHP, IPE, LTPZ, STPZ, TIPZ, STIP, TPS, TDTT, TIPX, TDTF, SIPE
    | Mon, May 23, 1:20 PM | 3 Comments
  • Mon, May 16, 3:17 PM
    • In the past month alone, according to SSgA, there have been $5.2B of inflows into fixed-income ETFs, and $7B of outflows from equity ETFs.
    • For the year through April, fixed-income inflows of $36.7B hit a record, while equity outflows were $11.3B - particularly interesting as the early part of the year is usually a good time for equity fund inflows.
    • Within fixed-income, those funds pulling in assets are "safe" ones like the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TIP) and the iShares Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:AGG). Also netting funds are investment-grade corporate bond funds (NYSEARCA:LQD), while high-yield has seen outflows.
    | Mon, May 16, 3:17 PM | 4 Comments
  • Wed, Mar. 30, 11:56 AM
    • "A Fed less concerned about [inflation] shifts risk to a price breakout," says FTN Financial's Jim Vogel, quickly summing up the bull case on TIPS.
    • Yellen's dovish remarks yesterday - especially in the face of core CPI up 2.3% Y/Y in February - sent the five-yield TIPS yield lower by 15 basis points. It's off another four bps today to negative 0.33%. TIPS have returned more than 4% YTD, outperforming most vanilla Treasurys, according to Barclays.
    • Pimco and BlackRock are among those bullish on the paper, and TIPS ETFs have raked in a record $2.14B this quarter.
    • ETFs: TIP, VTIP, SCHP, IPE, LTPZ, STPZ, TIPZ, STIP, TPS, TIPX, TDTT, TDTF, SIPE
    | Wed, Mar. 30, 11:56 AM | 6 Comments
  • Wed, Mar. 16, 7:17 AM
    • Goldman is out with a note saying Janet Yellen will use today's press conference to narrow the gap between Fed and market expectations.
    • “Ahead of this week’s meeting, the market is again putting more weight on the Fed dots’ downward revision than on the Fed’s communication around the timing of the next hike and the pace of the tightening cycle. We disagree with this market view,” Goldman says.
    • “Preparing the market for another ‘hike it and like it’ might be a better option at the current juncture. Not only have data moved in the right direction, but financial conditions, a metric that has occupied an important place for many Fed speakers, have eased back to their level in December.”
    • Goldman expects the Fed will lower its median projected pathway for rate hikes this year down to three from four, but still well above the one hike currently expected by markets.
    • Goldman thinks the Fed will lift the fed funds rate target by 25 BP in June, but add that, “a hike in April is not inconceivable.”
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TIP, TMV, IEF, SHY, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, VTIP, MBB, TLH, SBND, BKT, VGLT, IEI, SCHP, BIL, TYO, IPE, UBT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, TLO, LTPZ, PLW, VGSH, STPZ, RINF, VMBS, SHV, GNMA, TIPZ, STIP, VGIT, STPP
    | Wed, Mar. 16, 7:17 AM | 7 Comments
  • Nov. 19, 2015, 2:58 PM
    • First among the highest conviction ideas from Francesco Garzarelli and team is long greenbacks (NYSEARCA:UUP) vs. the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) and yen (NYSEARCA:FXY). The reasoning is simple: A stronger U.S. economy and the divergent (from Europe and Japan) monetary policy that goes along with it.
    • Second is a bullish inflation play - long 10-year TIPS (NYSEARCA:TIP) and short nominal 10-year Treasurys. The market is assigning a 40% probability inflation averages less than 1% over the next five years ... too pessimistic, says Goldman.
    • Also a top idea is to go long large-cap U.S. banks (NYSEARCA:KBE) vs. the S&P 500. Key to this is Goldman's expectation of a steeper yield curve (the opposite of what's occurred lately).
    | Nov. 19, 2015, 2:58 PM | 4 Comments
  • Jun. 24, 2015, 11:34 AM
    • With many investors stuck in the recent past's worry over deflation,TIPS "reflect insufficient risk premium" that inflation could run higher than the Fed's 2% target, says Pimco's Mihir Worah, CIO real return and asset allocation.
    • "These U.S. government-backed bonds, and inflation-linked bonds of several other nations, can be the cornerstone of a portfolio of inflation-hedging assets, depending on the specific objectives of each investor."
    • ETFs: TIP, WIP, VTIP, SCHP, IPE, LTPZ, WIW, STPZ, TIPZ, STIP, ILB, WIA, ITIP, GTIP, TPS, TDTT, TIPX, TDTF, SIPE
    | Jun. 24, 2015, 11:34 AM | 2 Comments
  • May 12, 2015, 4:09 AM
    | May 12, 2015, 4:09 AM | 2 Comments
  • May 11, 2015, 5:12 AM
    | May 11, 2015, 5:12 AM
  • Apr. 27, 2015, 5:04 AM
    | Apr. 27, 2015, 5:04 AM
  • Apr. 21, 2015, 11:07 AM
    • The $13.8B iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TIP) saw $634M of inflows last week, the highest weekly amount since the fund's opening in 2003. The move came alongside the latest CPI report which showed core prices rising faster than expected for a 2nd straight month, as well as the continued bounce in crude - now up about 30% from its March low.
    • At the Barron's roundtable in January, Bill Gross singled out the Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHP) for gains, expecting a rebound in returns with just a modest reversal in the oil bear market.
    • Source: Barron's
    • ETFs: TIP, VTIP, SCHP, IPE, LTPZ, STPZ, TIPZ, STIP, TPS, TDTT, TIPX, TDTF, SIPE
    | Apr. 21, 2015, 11:07 AM | 1 Comment
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