Mon, Jan. 4, 6:34 PM
- In its look at telecoms in emerging markets, Renaissance Capital says video could bring new growth -- and the sector may be a place to target dividends.
- "Telcos are jumping too late on the fast moving Internet train," the analysts write. "Video could be the ‘next big thing’ for mobile telcos and the step-up jump in usage (rather than a gradual shift) creates the possibility that this will translate into revenues."
- That growth, though, is likely going to fall victim to competition in no more than 12 months, they say.
- RenCap thinks the growth outlook is best in Turkey, as Russia and MENA face macro headwinds. In Turkey, the firm prefers Turk Telekom (OTC:TRKNY) to Turkcell (TKC -2.1%): “Ultimately a telecom (as with any other sector) is as good as its dividend stream is. On this metric we estimate [Turk Telekom] could be worth TRL5.8/share if all allowable earnings adjusted for availability of cash are paid out as dividends, and assuming the market would be happy with an 11.5% yield – 10.5% versus Turkish local bonds."
- Meanwhile, in Russia the firm likes Mobile TeleSytems (MBT -2.8%) and Sistema over VimpelCom (NASDAQ:VIP), and it highlights MTN Group (OTCPK:MTNOY -1.4%) in South Africa, though noting that firm's huge Nigerian fine shows that developing countries present regulatory risk and "become inventive when it comes to enhancing state coffers.”
Feb. 5, 2013, 8:38 AM
"We are more bullish than ever" on Turkcell (TKC), IS Investment effuses. The court decision favoring Cukurova means Altimo will fail in its bid to become TKC's majority shareholder (providing Cukurova makes its payment to Altimo), and makes a dividend - frozen since 2011 - imminent. Triple dividend yield for 2013 could fall between 12% and 16%, and strong fundamentals offer shareholders another 18% upside, firm says.| Feb. 5, 2013, 8:38 AM | 1 Comment