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  • Yesterday, 4:48 PM
    | Yesterday, 4:48 PM | 1 Comment
  • Thu, Dec. 8, 7:53 AM
    • The ECB just announced a slowing of monthly asset purchases to €60B per month (from €80B) beginning in April.
    • Bond yields are spiking higher in Europe and here, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up six basis points to 2.40%. TLT -1.1%, TBT +2.2%
    • The dollar index (UUP, UDN) is down 0.55% premarket.
    | Thu, Dec. 8, 7:53 AM | 4 Comments
  • Wed, Dec. 7, 2:12 PM
    • Led by Candace Browning, the team sees core PCE rising to 1.9% by the end of next year, and maybe even overshooting the Fed's 2% target.
    • At the moment, the market is anticipating just two rate hikes in 2017 and two more the following year, meaning there's plenty of room for expectations to ratchet higher (ed: or lower).
    • While growth may slow in H1 next year, H2 should run hot as boosted fiscal spending kicks in.
    • Though the inflation party has started across the globe, Europe has yet to receive an "invitation," they say.
    • After nearly rising to 2.50% a couple of sessions ago, the 10-year Treasury yield has pulled back another four basis points today to 2.35%. TLT +0.8%, TBT -1.6%
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, UST, DTYS, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, ITE, GSY, TYD, DTYL, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, HYDD
    | Wed, Dec. 7, 2:12 PM | 5 Comments
  • Mon, Dec. 5, 10:12 AM
    • Italy's modestly lower after Prime Minister Renzi announces his resignation following yesterday's referendum defeat. Europe as whole, though, is rallying, led by Germany's 1.4% advance.
    • New records are falling in the U.S., with the Nasdaq up 1%, and the S&P 500 0.75%.
    • The ISM services index in November rose past expectations to 57.2, its highest level in more than a year.
    • The sum result for bonds: Another selloff, with the 10-year Treasury yield higher by six basis points to 2.45%. TLT -0.9%, TBT +1.8%
    | Mon, Dec. 5, 10:12 AM | 8 Comments
  • Fri, Dec. 2, 7:37 PM
    • iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:AGG) - $0.2039. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.00%.
    • iShares Barclays 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT) - $0.2427. 30-Day Sec yield of 2.83%.
    • iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:HYG) - $0.3807. 30-Day Sec yield of 5.88%.
    • iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:MUB) - $0.2091. 30-Day Sec yield of 1.93%.
    • iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:LQD) - $0.3168. 30-Day Sec yield of 3.44%.
    • iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:SHY) - $0.0496. 30-Day Sec yield of 0.87%.
    • Payable Dec. 7; for shareholders of record Dec. 5; ex-div Dec. 1.  30-Day Sec yield as of 12/1/2016.
    | Fri, Dec. 2, 7:37 PM
  • Fri, Dec. 2, 8:42 AM
    • The first thing to check on hearing the news of a plunge in the unemployment rate to 4.6% from 4.9% would be the labor force participation rate, and indeed that did slip to 62.7% from 62.8%.
    • The number of persons "unemployed" of 7.4M compares to 7.79M a month earlier and 7.9M a year ago (when the UE rate was 5.0%).
    • The broader U-6 unemployment rate fell to 9.3% from 9.5%. One year ago, it was 9.9%.
    • Turning to the Establishment Data, nonfarm payrolls grew an inline 178K, but October's 161K gain was revised down to 142K. September, however, was revised higher by 17K jobs to 208K.
    • Average hourly earnings slipped $0.03 to $25.89; on a Y/Y basis, they're up 2.5%.
    • The average workweek was flat at 34.4 hours.
    • Treasury yields have turned lower since the print, the 10-year now down 4.2 basis points to 2.40%. TLT +0.6%, TBT -1.2%
    • Stock index futures have trimmed losses, with the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPYdown 0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQoff 0.2%.
    • Previously: Job gains inline; UE rate plunges to 4.6% (Dec. 2)
    | Fri, Dec. 2, 8:42 AM | 6 Comments
  • Fri, Dec. 2, 8:01 AM
    • "The bar was so low on Trump to the point people were expecting markets will go down 80% and global depression - and now this guy is the Wizard of Oz and so expectations are high," Jeff Gundlach tells Reuters. "There's no magic here."
    • Back to reality: Government programs take time to implement, rising mortgage rates aren't great for the "psyche" of the middle class, and HRC supporters are in no mood to spend money.
    • "There is going to be a buyer's remorse period," he says. Yields (TLT, TBT) have peaked and should move sideways from here, the dollar (UUP, UDN) is going to fall, and gold's (NYSEARCA:GLD) next move is higher.
    • DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX, TOTL) is up 2.12% through the end of November, besting 63% of peers. On a three-year basis, it's up 3.46% annualized, topping 93% of peers.
    • Other notable funds: DBL, OPP, DBLFX
    | Fri, Dec. 2, 8:01 AM | 36 Comments
  • Thu, Dec. 1, 9:47 AM
    • The global bond rout picks up steam this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield up another 5.3 basis points to 2.441%, the 10-year Bund up 4.8 bps to 0.324%, and 10-year yields in Italy, Spain, and the U.K. higher by similar amounts.
    • TLT -1.1%, TBT +2.2%
    • Rolling around the minds of fixed-income investors is incoming Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's consideration of locking in still-historically-low interest rates through the issuance of 50- or 100-year government bonds. At the pace rates are climbing, he better hurry.
    • ETFs: AGG, BND, BOND, PTY, PDI, PCI, RCS, ACG, PCN, PKO, EVV, GIM, BNDX, DBL, BTZ, ERC, HTR, FAM, PPT, MMT, GDF, FTF, SCHZ, BWX, PCM, KMM
    | Thu, Dec. 1, 9:47 AM | 38 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 30, 8:52 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield was already higher this morning, possibly helped along by a 7% moonshot in oil on reports of a deal to cut production.
    • The yield jumped further - now up 7 basis points to 2.36% - following the November ADP report showing 216K jobs added vs. just 160K expected, and 147K in October.
    • Other news to consider is Trump's Secretary pick Steven Mnuchin and his promise of tax reform - including both personal and corporate tax cuts - as a first priority.
    • TLT -1.15%, TBT +2% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Wed, Nov. 30, 8:52 AM | 6 Comments
  • Mon, Nov. 28, 3:37 AM
    | Mon, Nov. 28, 3:37 AM | 11 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 23, 9:49 AM
    • After a bit of consolidation over the past few sessions, Treasurys have resumed their bear run in a big way, with the 10-year Treasury yield up a full seven basis points to 2.38% - the highest level in more than a year.
    • Searching for excuses ... There's a sizable selloff in European government debt today as the ECB realizes its bond-purchase program has left the Continent without enough available government paper to function properly. There was also a fast durable goods read for the U.S. - but that's October data and we're practically in December.
    • Coming up in a few minutes are New Home Sales for October and this afternoon the FOMC minutes. Short-term rate futures have priced in a 100% chance of a rate hike in December.
    • TLT -1%, TBT +2%
    | Wed, Nov. 23, 9:49 AM | 8 Comments
  • Thu, Nov. 17, 8:51 AM
    • October housing starts roared to a 25.5% gain over the September level. At a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 1.323M, October's print was the fastest in nine years.
    • Single-family starts of 869K were up 10.2% from September.
    • Also strong, initial jobless claims tumbled 19K to 235K.
    • Edging weak was the Philly Fed outlook, which slipped to +7.6 from +9.7 previously.
    • Then there's inflation, and core CPI gained 0.1% in October, vs. expectations for a 0.2% advance.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is up three basis points to 2.25%. TLT -0.9%, TBT +1.8%.
    | Thu, Nov. 17, 8:51 AM
  • Tue, Nov. 15, 9:27 AM
    • At least across the developed Western hemisphere, yields are lower across the board today, particularly in the EU periphery countries of Spain and Italy.
    • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is down four basis points to 2.22% - this despite a roaring retail sales report for October. TLT +0.65%, TBT -1.3%
    • With a 25 basis point December rate hike a near absolute metaphysical certainty, it's time to start talking about the next move after that.
    • For now, traders are pretty complacent about any sort of tightening cycle. Looking all the way out to July of 2017, Fed Funds futures are pricing in only about a 50% chance of an additional rate hike.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Tue, Nov. 15, 9:27 AM | 1 Comment
  • Mon, Nov. 14, 12:14 PM
    • Consistently bullish (and right) on fixed-income for as long as anyone can remember, Van Hoisington isn't buying the conventional wisdom that the election results mean the economy and inflation are set for a demand shock in the form of lower taxes, less regulation, and more deficit spending.
    • His view of the trajectory of the economy (sluggish) over the next four to six quarters is unchanged.
    • For tax cuts to make a positive contribution, monetary policy must "remain favorable, not adversarial," and the Fed is about to hike rates, he says. The Reagan tax cuts, he reminds, were far larger than what's being discussed, and occurred as interest rates were declining sharply.
    • Hoisington: "Markets have a pronounced tendency to rush to judgment when policy changes occur,” and were proven wrong about potential for 2009 stimulus and QE1 to ignite inflation.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • Previously: "Bond vigilantes" term comes out of retirement (Nov. 14)
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Mon, Nov. 14, 12:14 PM | 1 Comment
  • Mon, Nov. 14, 4:56 AM
    | Mon, Nov. 14, 4:56 AM | 8 Comments
  • Sat, Nov. 12, 9:04 AM
    • The president-elect's pro-business agenda is inherently "unfriendly" to bonds, Jeff Gundlach tells Barron's, as it will lead to stronger economic growth and renewed inflation.
    • Look for Trump to "amp up the deficit" to pay for infrastructure and other programs - producing an inflation rate of 3% and nominal GDP growth of 4-6%. Given that, there's no way the 10-year Treasury yield stays near its current level of 2.15%, and it could rise as high as 6% in the next four or five years. [Serious question: How does "amp up the deficit" differ in any way from what was done in 2009? Can anyone say "shovel-ready"?]
    • For now, Gundlach (DFLEX, DBLFX, DBL) remains a fan of TIPS (NYSEARCA:TIP), and has swapped a good deal of his government paper for those inflation-protected securities.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Sat, Nov. 12, 9:04 AM | 205 Comments
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