From other sites
at CNBC.com (Fri, 3:16PM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 3:03PM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 1:30PM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 11:44AM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 11:40AM)
at Nasdaq.com (Fri, 10:59AM)
at CNBC.com (Fri, 9:37AM)
at CNBC.com (Thu, 4:42PM)
at CNBC.com (Thu, 1:35PM)
at CNBC.com (Thu, 9:45AM)
Treasury Curve Twists Sharply This Week, With Forward T-Bill Rates Peaking At 3.25% In 2021
- Current U.S. Treasury yields rose 0.06% to 0.08% this week at maturities from 2 to 7 years.
- The resulting forward 1-month T-bill rates twisted sharply, up 0.16% in 2016 and down 0.18% in 2024.
- Forward 1-month T-bill rates now peak at 3.25% in April 2021, 0.14% higher than the peak of two weeks ago.
What The Plunge In U.S. Treasury Yields Means For The Next 10 Years
- The current yield curve can be used to imply forward U.S. T-bill rates. We do this after the drop of 0.11% to 0.20% in Treasuries from 2 to 30 years.
- Forward 1-Month T-bill rates are now projected to peak at 3.11% in February 2022, 0.17% lower and 8 months later than last week's implied forwards.
- The implied U.S. Treasury yield in 2024 is 3.32%, down 0.13% from last week.
Inflation, Deflation, And Our Very Confident Bet In T-Bonds
- I’ve been touting the ongoing bull market in T-Bonds as one of the best investment opportunities of our lifetime -– a no-brainer, as far as I can recommend.
- Deflation-wise, this is where the rubber will meet the road, drawing irresistible power from the inevitable implosion of the quadrillion dollar Ponzi scheme popularly known as “derivatives.”.
- A hyperinflation would not be driven by wage pressures or rising prices, or even by a further increase in the money supply, but by the epiphany of the dollar’s worthlessness.
- Enough news has occurred in less than a week to document it in another article on Treasuries.
- To me, this news provides accelerating positive arguments for lower Treasury rates, though this is not a day-to-day timing call.
- All this is consistent with the Taper following the pattern set at the end of QE 1 and QE 2.
Forward 1-Month T-Bill Rates Plunge Again, With Peak Down 0.11% At 3.28% In June, 2021
- Current U.S. Treasury yields fell again this week, dropping 0.07% to 0.12% at maturities from 2 to 30 years.
- The peak in implied forward 1-month T-bill rates dropped 0.11% to 3.28% in June, 2021.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 0.10% this week and is now projected at 3.45% in 2024, down 0.08% from last week.
- Treasury bonds may be well-positioned to rally further as QE ends, surprising consensus.
- This would reprise their action after QE 1 and QE 2 ended.
- Recent data affecting bonds is favorable as I see it.
- This article updates my case for interest rate bullishness from late August.
Forward 1-Month T-Bill Rates Fall Again, With Peak Down 0.10% At 3.39% In April 2021Donald van Deventer • Fri, Oct. 3
- Current U.S. Treasury yields fell 0.05% to 0.08% this week at maturities from 5 to 30 years.
- Forward 1-month T-bill rates dropped as much as 0.17%, with the peak now projected at 3.39% in April 2021, down 0.10% and 2 months later than last week.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is down 0.08% from last week. The forward 10-year yield in 2024 dropped 0.09% to 3.53%.
Forward 1-Month T-Bill Rates Plunge, With Peak Down 0.15% At 3.49% In 2021Donald van Deventer • Thu, Sep. 25
- Current Treasury yields dropped 0.07% to 0.14% at maturities from 3 years to 30 years this week.
- Forward 1 month T-bill rates are now projected to peak at 3.49% in February 2021, 0.15% lower than last week.
- The forward U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield dropped 0.19% to 3.62% in 2024.
Forward 1 Month T-Bill Curve Surges Again, With Peak At 3.64% In February, 2021
- Current U.S. Treasury yields jumped 0.06% to 0.10% again this week in the 5 to 30 year maturities.
- This triggered a 0.20% or greater surge in forward 1 month Treasury bill rates in the 2020 to 2021 maturities.
- The peak in 1 month forward T-bill rates is now 3.64% in February 2021, 2 months earlier and 0.23% higher than last week.
- Fundamentals and tactical indicators have finally turned against US Treasuries in a decisive manner.
- In this short article I will explain why I believe this to be the case.
- Investors wanting to participate in this expected increase in Treasury yields can do so by increasing their exposure towards inverse Treasury ETF’s.
- Despite the gradual reduction of treasury bond purchases by the U.S central bank and forecasts of higher rates in 2015, long-term bonds have outperformed in 2014.
- The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has been up 13.2% YTD as of 9 Sep 2014, outperforming even the S&P500 index.
- Low inflationary pressures are countering the forecasts of higher interest rates on long-term bonds for the time being.
- Global interest rates have continued to decline throughout the summer as global growth remains sluggish and inflation pressures remain muted.
- As real yields continue to fall in the Eurozone in anticipation of ECB QE, the US Treasury bond market will become even more attractive.
- The new regulatory framework implementation will continue to nominally pull interest rates lower.
- The end of the Fed's QE program will not lead to a massive interest rate sell off in long dated US bonds due to mortgage hedging dynamics.
- Investors and traders turned their focus on the Fed yet again, with the media reciting Yellen’s Jackson Hole comments.
- What happens in the U.S. may end up being a side show relative to Europe now.
- If Draghi initiates QE and inflation expectations rise, then European yields likely rise and that could finally break the Treasury uptrend.
Forward 1-Month T-Bill Rates Twist Again With A 2021 Peak Implied At 3.32%, Down 0.06% From Last Week
- U.S. Treasury yields jumped 0.04% to 0.08% in the 2- to 7-year maturities this week.
- This caused a twist in the implied 1-month forward T-bill rates, with the May 2016 rate down 0.19% and the January 2023 rate up 0.07%.
- The peak in implied 1-month forward T-bill rates is now 3.32% in June 2021, a peak from 3 months earlier and 0.06% lower than last week.
- Buying Treasuries is like buying insurance, if everything goes well you'll be sorry you bought them.
- But when things go wrong you'll be sorry you didn't.
- The threat of rising interest rates makes it a difficult time to feel comfortable investing in treasuries.
- Here's how I am dealing with this dilemma.
Forward 1-Month T-Bill Rates Plunge 0.26%, But Forward 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Down Only 0.04% From Last WeekDonald van Deventer • Sat, Aug. 9
- Current 5- and 7-year U.S. Treasury yields dropped about 0.16% from last week.
- In response, forward 1-month T-bill rates dropped 0.26% in June 2016. The peak now comes at 3.45% in June 2021, about the same peak as 2 weeks ago.
- The drop in forward 10-year U.S. Treasury yields in 2024 was only 0.04%, although current 10-year yields dropped 0.15% on the week.
Forward 1-Month T-Bill Rates Surge 0.15% In 2021 After 0.06% Rise In Current 7- And 10-Year Treasury YieldsDonald van Deventer • Fri, Aug. 1
- This week's 0.06% rise in 7- and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields triggered a 0.15% rise in implied forward T-bill rates.
- Forward 1-month T-bill rates now reach a peak of 3.62% in March 2021, one more earlier and 0.15% higher than last week.
- The 2024 implied forward U.S. Treasury 10-year yield dropped 0.01% to 3.76%.
There are no Transcripts on TLT.
Wed, Nov. 19, 2:25 PM
- Stocks enjoyed a brief bump after the release of the Fed meeting minutes, but the leading indexes have returned to slight losses: Dow -0.1%, S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.5%.
- Treasury prices ticked up, pushing the yield of the benchmark 10-year note lower to 2.335%.
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, EDV, PST, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, DTYS, DLBS, TYO, VGLT, BIL, UST, STPP, UBT, PLW, SHV, VGIT, TLO, GOVT, FLAT, VGSH, TBX, SCHO, GSY, TENZ, SCHR, DTYL, LBND, ITE, TYD, DTUS, TYBS, SST, TUZ, DTUL, DLBL, TBZ, FIVZ, DFVL, DFVS, TYNS, TAPR
Wed, Nov. 19, 9:58 AM
- Alan Greenspan called it a "conundrum," but some just saw it as another failure of the Fed's central planning.
- “We wanted to control the federal funds rate, but ran into trouble because long-term rates did not, as they always had previously, respond to the rise in short-term rates,” recently said the Maestro, harking back to the middle of the last decade when yields at the long end of the curve fell despite the stomping of Greenspan's feet.
- Today's crop of bond investors is again betting on the market instead of the Fed, taking long-term rates down even as central bankers prep hikes on the short end. A rising short end combined with a stable or falling long end could quickly lead to an inverted yield curve, "turn(ing) credit creation on its head," says economics professor Tim Duy. "I'm sort of wondering what's the game plan here."
- One tool today's crop of central bankers has that Greenspan didn't: A $4.49T portfolio accumulated thanks to three rounds of QE. A sale of some of those assets could be a way to lift long-term rates, suggests Barclays' Michael Gapen. Ugh.
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, PST, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, TYO, VGLT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, UBT, TLO, PLW, VGIT, GOVT, TBX, GSY, TENZ, DTYL, SCHR, TYD, LBND, ITE, DLBL, TYBS, TBZ, DFVL, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS, TAPR, SYTL
Fri, Nov. 7, 11:47 AM
- Not much is going on with the major U.S. averages as they digest the fast pace of earnings and today's inline-to-strong jobs number, but Europe's heading for a nasty close, with the Stoxx 50 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) lower by 1.2%, including Germany (NYSEARCA:EWG) and France (NYSEARCA:EWQ) each down 1%.
- Possible excuses are the lack of movement on further ECB stimulus and Ukraine's claims of 32 Russian tanks rolling into its country.
- Also on the move is gold (GLD +1.9%) after an ugly run lower over the past couple of weeks.
- Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields - with the prospect of rate hikes next year made even more definite by today's jobs number - are sharply lower, down nine basis points to 2.31%. TLT +0.9%, TBT -1.8%
- Previously: Jobs +214K, UE rate to 5.8%
Fri, Nov. 7, 8:51 AM
- The roughly inline nonfarm payrolls report has the algos at work, but most markets are about where they were before the 8:30 ET print.
- Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) is ahead by 0.4% to $1,146 per ounce, S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures are higher by 0.2%, the dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP) is lower by 0.25%, and the 10-year Treasury (NYSEARCA:TLT) yield is flat at 2.39%.
- Previously: Jobs +214K, UE rate to 5.8%
Mon, Nov. 3, 1:48 PM| Comment!
Wed, Oct. 29, 2:12 PM
- The S&P 500 (SPY -0.4%), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -0.7%), and DJIA (DIA -0.3%) are a tiny bit lower now than they were ahead of the FOMC statement.
- The 10-year Treasury yield, up three basis points ahead of the statement, is now up five bps to 2.35%. TLT -0.3%. Gold (GLD -1%) takes the biggest hit, falling about $10 per ounce since the statement, now off 1% on the session at $1,217.
- Previously: QE ends, "considerable time" language stays for now
Mon, Oct. 27, 1:09 PM
- Busy fighting the financial crisis six after it happened, regulators are doing an excellent job laying the groundwork for the next one as evidenced by the panicky action in Treasurys on October 15. It was on that morning when the 10-year Treasury yield in the space of a few minutes tumbled to 1.90% from 2.20%, before ending the session at 2.15% (for those who don't play in fixed-income, U.S. Treasury yields very rarely ever move that much).
- The panic buying in Treasurys also leaked over into jumpy selling in stock index futures.
- "It was like turning the clocks back to pre-electronic trading," says Charles Comiskey, head Treasury dealer at Scotiabank. "Once we recognized things started getting out of control, we shut [the electronic trading system] off immediately."
- Laser-focused on forcing banks to cut back on risk, regulators have forced lenders to vastly scale down their inventory of bonds, and the thinner markets make outsized moves more likely. JPMorgan estimates the amount of Treasurys available to trade at one time without moving prices has plunged 48% to just $150M since April.
- “There’s a thin line to keeping the customer happy while also giving a level that you can at least get out of without taking a big loss right away,” says Guggenheim's Jason Rogan, whose firm also shut off the machines that morning.
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, PLW, GOVT, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL, TAPR
Wed, Oct. 22, 10:30 PM
- "Everyone is always saying rates will rise; it is almost comical,” says Jeff Gundlach, speaking at ETF.com's Inside Fixed Income conference. It's a mistake looking at past economic recoveries as a template for this one, he says, because persistent deflation - owing to a number of factors - makes this cycle different.
- While the Fed realizes QE doesn't do a lot of good and is ending it, he adds, the central bank has no reason to hike rates anytime soon.
- Gundlach never sticks with just fixed income, and this time he turns to oil, which he believes is headed far lower. "I'm convinced Saudi Arabia wants oil at $70. They love turning the screws on people who mean them harm in the Middle East." Seventy dollar oil, however, will also hurt the booming energy sector here in the States as fracking is hardly worth it at that price.
- DoubleLine chart of breakeven oil price for a number of producers
- DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund: DBLTX, DLTNX
- Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, VGLT, DLBS, UBT, TLO, PLW, GOVT, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL, TAPR
- Oil ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DNO, DWTI, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI
Mon, Oct. 20, 11:16 AM
- Wetting their fingers and sticking them in the wind, strategists at Goldman Sachs cut their year-end forecast for the U.S. Treasury yield to 2.50% from 3%, and those at JPMorgan to 2.45% from 2.7%. The moves come following a plunge in the 10-year yield over the past month - to 2.19% from 2.66%.
- The revisions underscore what is becoming a nearly annual event where January 1 sees nearly all of the Street recommending investors shun long-term U.S. government paper, only to reverse themselves some months later (Goldman started the year expecting 3.25%, and JPMorgan 3.65%).
- “We think anxieties about the ‘passage of the baton’ between the Fed and the ECB have increased," says Goldman's Francesco Garzarelli.
- Kudos to the team at HSBC - about the only bond bull which could be found at the start of the year - which called back then for a year-end 10-year yield of 2.1%.
- TLT +0.1%, TBT -0.2%
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL
Thu, Oct. 16, 11:48 AM
- Another crazy day in bond land has the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield higher by one basis point to 2.15% after earlier falling all the way to 1.97%. Helping is some decent economic data (Philly Fed, jobless claims), and a turnaround in equities as both the Fed and ECB put out word - in case anyone forgot - of their willingness to step in to arrest just about any market decline.
- TLT -0.45%, TBT +0.9%
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL
Wed, Oct. 15, 3:46 PM
- Alongside a major reversal in stocks - with the Russell 2000 now higher by 1.3% and the Nasdaq back to flat - has been an even bigger turnaround in Treasurys.
- The 10-year yield plunged all the way down to about 1.90% earlier this morning (from 2.20% yesterday) as "position squaring" in futures combined with some fixed-income bullish news and data to create a buying panic. The yield has now returned to 2.15%. Once up around 4% on the session, TLT is ahead just 0.3%.
Wed, Oct. 15, 9:35 AM
- No need to do a double-take. The 10-year Treasury yield is now lower by 20 basis points to 2.00%, with clearly something more at work than a couple of weak economic reports.
- Germany goes full Japan, with 10-year Bund yields lower by nine basis points to 0.71%, and U.K. 10-year Gilt yields are down 16 bps to 1.98%.
- Previously moving lower in lockstep with Germany, peripheral yields don't keep up today. Spanish 10-years are up four bps to 2.14% and Italy's are up 14 basis points to 2.45%.
- Previously: Treasury yields tumble after weak data; S&P futures down 1%
- TLT +2.8%
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, PST, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, TYO, DLBS, DTYS, VGLT, UST, UBT, TLO, PLW, VGIT, GOVT, TBX, GSY, TENZ, SCHR, DTYL, TYD, ITE, LBND, TYBS, DLBL, TBZ, FIVZ, DFVL, DFVS, TAPR, TYNS
Wed, Oct. 15, 8:41 AM
- The 10-year Treasury yield is quickly heading towards a "1" handle, off nine basis points this morning to just 2.11% after a trio of weak economic reports, led by core retail sales falling 0.2% in September vs. an expected gain of 0.3%.
- There was also a big slump in the Empire State survey, and core PPI came in flat vs. an expected gain of 0.1%.
- Down moderately earlier, S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures are now lower by 1.1%.
- TLT +1%, TBT -2% premarket
- Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, PST, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, TYO, DTYS, DLBS, VGLT, UST, UBT, TLO, VGIT, TBX, GSY, TENZ, SCHR, DTYL, TYD, LBND, ITE, TYBS, DLBL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVL, DFVS, TYNS
- S&P 500 ETFs: SPY, IVE, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, RWL, EPS, SPYG, IVW, RPG, RPV, SPYV, VOOG, BXUB, VOOV, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, FTA, SPUU
Tue, Oct. 14, 7:34 AM
- The 10-year Treasury yield falls all the way to 2.19% in morning action, a fresh 16-month low, and the 30-year yield has fallen below 3%.
- Just for perspective, the yield on one of the world's more hated asset classes (the 10-year Treasury) stood at around 3% at the start of the year. The TLT ETF has gained 18.6% YTD and is up another 0.9% premarket.
- At work in addition to sliding equity markets are rising deflation fears across the pond - the German 10-year Bund yield slides five basis points to a fresh all-time record low of 0.80%, and 10-year Gilt yields are down eight basis points to 2.09% amid weak CPI numbers.
- Previously: U.K. inflation falls to five-year low
- Previously: Italy, Spain CPI exacerbate eurozone deflation fears
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, PST, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, TYO, DLBS, DTYS, VGLT, UST, UBT, TLO, PLW, VGIT, GOVT, TBX, GSY, TENZ, DTYL, SCHR, ITE, TYD, LBND, TYBS, DLBL, TBZ, FIVZ, DFVL, DFVS, TAPR, TYNS
Mon, Oct. 13, 3:57 PM
- The renewed slide in stocks - the Dow has shed another 200 points - puts a charge in gold (GLD +0.8%), now up 1% and at a session-high of $1,234 per ounce. The metal has now erased nearly all of its big post-Labor Day slide.
- The Treasury market is closed for Columbus Day, but TLT is ahead by 0.7%, suggesting a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield to somewhere in the area of 2.25%. TBT -1.4%
Mon, Oct. 13, 1:06 PM
- The Treasury market is closed, but TLT is higher by 0.35%, suggesting a drop of two or three basis points in the 10-year yield.
- Off about 1.5% each over the past week, the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG +0.3%) an the SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK +0.3%) are both managing gains in today's session. Another gauge, the BAML High Yield Master Index is now off 3.35% YTD.
- The good news: Those bubbly valuations of not long ago have been scaled back - the average high yield bond now yields 6.22%, up from June's all-time low of 4.84%, and trades at 101.4 cents on the dollar, down from 107 cents at the all-time high. The spread over Treasurys is a comfortable 466 basis points.
- ETFs: HYG, JNK, HYLD, SJB, ANGL, HYLS, UJB, XOVR, QLTC
TLT vs. ETF Alternatives
The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the long-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index.
See more details on sponsor's website
See more details on sponsor's website
Country: United States
Other News & PR