T-Mobile Momentum Remains: Accumulate Before Next Leg Higher
Alpha Gen Capital
Alpha Gen Capital
T-Mobile's Reinvigorated Brand And Momentum Accelerates
Alpha Gen Capital
Alpha Gen Capital
T-Mobile: On The Path To Threatening AT&T And Verizon For Dominance In Wireless
Alpha Gen Capital • 10 Comments
Alpha Gen Capital • 10 Comments
Wed, Jul. 27, 12:28 PM
- T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) is rebounding strong, up 1.5% after setting new 52-week highs this morning on Q2 results with revenues and user gains way up.
- Profits slipped, but the company once again took subscribers from rivals. Of 1.9M total net adds, it logged 890,000 branded postpaid net adds, 646,000 of those lucrative phone adds. It's the 10th straight quarter that it's led the industry in branded postpaid phone net adds, T-Mobile says.
- Postpaid phone churn fell 5 basis points Y/Y to a record low 1.27%. It also added 476,000 branded prepaid net adds.
- Service revenues grew 12.1% to $6.9B and overall revenue rose to $9.2B.
- The strong customer numbers prompted T-Mobile to upgrade subs guidance for the year: It now sees branded postpaid net adds of 3.4M-3.8M, up from a previous 3.2M-3.6M. It's also narrowing its adjusted EBITDA target to $9.8B-$10.1B (vs. consensus for $9.87B).
- It's expecting cash capex for 2016 of $4.5B-$4.8B.
- Press Release
Wed, Jul. 27, 7:34 AM
Tue, Jul. 26, 5:30 PM
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Tue, Apr. 26, 12:17 PM
- T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS), up as much as 2.5% after it swung to a profit in Q1, has turned down 2.3% on the day even as analyst takes start to roll in with positivity around a strong quarter and expectations that the carrier can outperform guidance that was raised but still looks easily attainable.
- The company raised guidance on net postpaid customer adds this year to 3.2M-3.6M; JPMorgan's Phil Cusick called that "typically conservative" and said he's looking for more upside through the year. Cusick has the stock rated at Overweight with a price target of $49, implying 21% upside.
- Oppenheimer's Tim Horan also thinks the net add forecast looks conservative and praised cash EBITDA margin of 25% vs. his forecast of 23% -- "which given the strong adds was exceptional."
- Meanwhile, Craig Moffett called it a "blowout" result where the company cut bad debt (amid industry concerns about phone financing) and also sported "near record-low postpaid customer turnover."
- Oppenheimer's Horan has an Outperform rating and price target of $48.
- Now read T-Mobile: The Price Of Peace With YouTube Is High »
Tue, Apr. 26, 9:27 AM
- T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) is up 2% in premarket trading following Q1 results where it swung to a profit, crested 2M net subscriber additions again and guided for still more adds this year.
- Revenues overall were up 10.5% and service revenues grew 13% to $6.6B, making up for flatter equipment sales. Its EPS of $0.56 was a swing from a year-ago loss per share of $0.09, aided by a $0.46 after-tax impact from spectrum gains.
- Net customer adds of 2.2M surpassed solid estimates that saw it adding just under 2M on a net basis. The company's now guiding to add 3.2M-3.6M net postpaid customers this year, raising its earlier target of 2.4M-3.4M.
- Churn rose a bit, to 1.33% from a year-ago 1.3%. Branded postpaid phone ARPU was $46.21, down 0.5% Y/Y and down 3.8% sequentially.
- Along with raising its postpaid adds target, it's raising its target on EBITDA to $9.7B-$10.2B from a previous forecast of $9.1B-$9.7B (and vs. consensus for $9.42B).
- Press Release
Tue, Apr. 26, 6:02 AM
Mon, Apr. 25, 5:30 PM
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Wed, Feb. 17, 9:27 AM
- T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) is up 4.9% premarket after nearly tripling earnings on the back of 2.1M customer adds in Q4, while promotions continued to nip at revenues per customer.
- Net income rose to $297M from $101M. Total revenues were up 1.1%; service revenues were up 11.7%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 30.2% to $2.3B.
- Branded postpaid net adds came to 1.3M in Q4; of those, 917K in phones. Branded postpaid phone churn was down 27 basis points to 1.46%. Branded prepaid net adds were 469K for Q4 (and 1.3M for the year).
- Average revenue per postpaid user dropped to $48.05 from $48.26.
- For 2016, the carrier is targeting 2.4M to 3.4M branded postpaid net adds -- vs. 4.5M it added in 2015 -- and adjusted EBITDA of $9.1B-$9.7B (a bit light of consensus at $9.98B). Cash capex is forecast at $4.5B-$4.8B.
- Press release
- 10-K filing
Wed, Feb. 17, 6:48 AM
Tue, Feb. 16, 8:21 PM
- Earnings tomorrow morning should give T-Mobile (TMUS +3.8%) followers their first peek into any effects of Binge On, the carrier's free mobile video offering, on its data financials.
- The company should also give some color into subscriber numbers that it proudly released in the first week of the year, along with how leasing is affecting full-year forecasts.
- T-Mobile announced 2M net subscriber adds (for the third straight quarter) that led to its second straight year of more than 8M net customer adds. It added 917K branded postpaid phone subscribers on net, easily leading Sprint (366K) and Verizon (449K), as well as a postpaid customer-losing AT&T (-342K) -- though AT&T and Verizon say they are focusing not on sheer subscriber numbers but the profitability and credit profile of those customers.
- Capital IQ consensus says that T-Mobile will report earnings per share of $0.16 on revenues of $8.23B, a 0.8% Y/Y gain. EBITDA is expected to come in at $2.02B.
- After running drinking games for competitors' earnings calls, sporting T-Mobile has suggested rules for its own.
- Previously: T-Mobile adds 2M net customers for third straight quarter (Jan. 06 2016)
- Related: Cramer Likes T-Mobile - Cramer's Lightning Round (1/28/16) (Jan. 29 2016)
- Related: T-Mobile: Can The Wireless Provider Do More Than Add Customers? (Jan. 08 2016)
Tue, Feb. 16, 5:30 PM
Wed, Jan. 20, 9:19 PM
- T-Mobile (TMUS -0.8%) still looks to walk the tightrope of maximizing revenue and growing its subscriber base, Evercore ISI suggests, expecting growth in not only users but also EBITDA for Q4.
- The carrier had proudly leaked its subscriber numbers earlier this month, saying it added 2M net customers for the third straight quarter, and marked 8M net adds for the second straight year.
- T-Mobile has taken a different tack than the "big two," AT&T and Verizon, which have targeted better customers in order to maximize profits rather than just growing subscribers, while T-Mobile has looked to steal customers from the others.
- "And while strong customer adds usually pressures EBITDA (given acquisitions costs), (T-Mobile management) recently signaled FY15 EBITDA results would land in the top half of guidance ($6.8-7.2B, which excludes the impact of leasing and Data Stash)," Evercore notes. "Finally, although the ramping of handset leasing will impact the comparability of results, we expect further progress on levered FCF following the positive inflection in 3Q."
- Evercore expects that AT&T lost 300K postpaid phone customers, while Verizon is expected to mark postpaid phone net adds of 525K.
Nov. 2, 2015, 6:36 PM
- With earnings in the books for three of the big four U.S. wireless firms, eyes turn to Sprint's results coming tomorrow morning.
- But while Oppenheimer's Tim Horan expects Sprint to return to subscriber growth with a "modest" number on postpaid phone adds, T-Mobile (TMUS +1.1%) is the real attractive stock to buy on a pullback from its results.
- The stock had a "messy" transition to lease accounting, but he notes enterprise value/EBITDA of just 6.3 times, in line with Verizon and AT&T, but with a 20% growth rate.
- We continue to believe TMUS will maintain strong subscriber growth, and management was very optimistic about 4Q15 trends, with lower churn and postpaid ARPU stabilization the biggest positives," Horan says. "We believe that TMUS should see very strong EBITDA and FCF growth the next two years and at 6x estimated 2016 cash EBITDA it still looks attractive to us, despite our lower estimates.
- Meanwhile, AT&T is the biggest loser of the four this quarter, he says, due to some weakness in subscriber numbers.
- T-Mobile is down 7.2% since reporting an earnings miss last week.
Oct. 27, 2015, 9:19 AM
- T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) is off 1.7% premarket after missing expectations with Q3 results despite more solid subscriber growth.
- The company swung to a profit with net income of $138M that came to $0.15/share and revenues of $7.85B missed by $440M despite growing nearly 7%. Service revenues were up 11% along with the customer growth. EBITDA of $1.9B grew 42% but missed an expected $1.93B.
- The company yet again raised guidance for subscribers after 2.3M net customer adds. It added 1.1M branded postpaid net subscribers (843K branded postpaid phone net adds), along with 595K branded prepaid net adds. Branded postpaid phone churn was down 18 basis points to 1.46%.
- It's guiding to add 3.8M-4.2M postpaid users for the full year, up from previous guidance for 3.4M-3.9M.
- As with other companies in the price war, branded postpaid average revenue per user was under pressure, falling 3.7% Y/Y to $47.99.
- Conference call to come at 10 a.m. ET (YouTube, webcast)
Oct. 27, 2015, 7:42 AM
- T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS): Q3 EPS of $0.15 may not be comparable to consensus of $0.30.
- Revenue of $7.85B (+6.8% Y/Y) misses by $440M.
T-Mobile US, Inc. provides mobile communications services under the T-Mobile, MetroPCS, and GoSmart brands in the U.S., Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. It offers postpaid and prepaid wireless voice, messaging and data services, and wholesale wireless services. The company also provides... More
Industry: Wireless Communications
Country: United States
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