Mon, Nov. 2, 6:36 PM
- With earnings in the books for three of the big four U.S. wireless firms, eyes turn to Sprint's results coming tomorrow morning.
- But while Oppenheimer's Tim Horan expects Sprint to return to subscriber growth with a "modest" number on postpaid phone adds, T-Mobile (TMUS +1.1%) is the real attractive stock to buy on a pullback from its results.
- The stock had a "messy" transition to lease accounting, but he notes enterprise value/EBITDA of just 6.3 times, in line with Verizon and AT&T, but with a 20% growth rate.
- We continue to believe TMUS will maintain strong subscriber growth, and management was very optimistic about 4Q15 trends, with lower churn and postpaid ARPU stabilization the biggest positives," Horan says. "We believe that TMUS should see very strong EBITDA and FCF growth the next two years and at 6x estimated 2016 cash EBITDA it still looks attractive to us, despite our lower estimates.
- Meanwhile, AT&T is the biggest loser of the four this quarter, he says, due to some weakness in subscriber numbers.
- T-Mobile is down 7.2% since reporting an earnings miss last week.
Tue, Oct. 27, 9:19 AM
- T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) is off 1.7% premarket after missing expectations with Q3 results despite more solid subscriber growth.
- The company swung to a profit with net income of $138M that came to $0.15/share and revenues of $7.85B missed by $440M despite growing nearly 7%. Service revenues were up 11% along with the customer growth. EBITDA of $1.9B grew 42% but missed an expected $1.93B.
- The company yet again raised guidance for subscribers after 2.3M net customer adds. It added 1.1M branded postpaid net subscribers (843K branded postpaid phone net adds), along with 595K branded prepaid net adds. Branded postpaid phone churn was down 18 basis points to 1.46%.
- It's guiding to add 3.8M-4.2M postpaid users for the full year, up from previous guidance for 3.4M-3.9M.
- As with other companies in the price war, branded postpaid average revenue per user was under pressure, falling 3.7% Y/Y to $47.99.
- Conference call to come at 10 a.m. ET (YouTube, webcast)
- Press Release
Tue, Oct. 27, 7:42 AM
Mon, Oct. 26, 5:30 PM
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Thu, Jul. 30, 3:22 PM
- On T-Mobile's (NYSE:TMUS) earnings call today, CEO John Legere expounded on consolidation and where he thinks technology is leading, signaling that he's still open to tie-ups: After all, he expects more players to get into wireless service, whether it's Dish Network with its spectrum haul, or Google with Project Fi, or even Comcast.
- "As the cable players use Wi-Fi as a capability to serve their subscribers ... you know that a player like a cable company and a player like T-Mobile [together] ... is better," Legere said. Customers will look at their accounts, and say "I have Comcast, and I have T-Mobile ... Why don't these guys do something together" to provide a seamless experience. Combinations like that are questions of "not if, but when," Legere said.
- He took time to tweak Sprint again, criticizing its new plan: "Sprint's $80 all-in plan is the return of contracts ... We will not be moving in that direction."
- With regard to video -- and particularly Verizon's upcoming Go90 mobile service -- he took a cautious stance and said T-Mobile would be in that area if customers wanted it. "If you interview 10 millennials in Times Square, how panting are they for Go90? ... Let's wait and see."
- That's another partnering opportunity, he said, looking forward into a world where content is moving to the Internet even as the Internet is going mobile: "Content to the Internet, Internet to the mobile devices, it's a potential opportunity for T-Mobile to partner, ally, merge with" other players.
- Shares are now up 5.3% this afternoon following the strong report.
- Previously: T-Mobile up 1.7% early after solid Q2 beat, raised customer guidance (Jul. 30 2015)
Thu, Jul. 30, 9:14 AM
- T-Mobile (NYSE:TMUS) is up 1.7% premarket after Q2 results where it beat profit expectations soundly while growing revenues and built up customers -- thanks to aggressive competition as it continues to trade profit margin for subscriber growth.
- The carrier raised its full-year projection for customer growth again, after adding a net 2.1M customers (1M postpaid). It now sees 2015 total branded mainstream adds of 3.4M-3.9M customers, up from a previous 3M-3.5M. Churn fell to 1.3%, from a year-ago 1.5%.
- Profts fell to $361M from a year-ago $391M, but swung from a $63M loss in Q1. Adjusted EBITDA of $1.8B (up 25%) beat an expected $1.767B. Service revenues of $6.1B were up 12% Y/Y.
- Of the 1M postpaid net adds, 760K were branded postpaid phone net adds, and the company again expects to capture all of the industry's postpaid phone growth.
- Branded postpaid phone ARPU was up 3.8% from Q1, to $48.19, mainly due to noncash net revenue deferrals for its Data Stash offering. That's down 2.3% Y/Y, though. Branded postpaid average billings per user was $63.29 (up 5.9%) and average revenue per account was $113.50 (up 6%). Meanwhile, branded prepaid ARPU was up 1.8% to $37.83.
- The company reiterated guidance for full-year EBITDA of $6.8B-$7.2B, in line with expectations, and for cash capex of $4.4B-$4.7B.
- Conference call to come at 11 a.m. ET.
- Press Release; Tables
Thu, Jul. 30, 7:38 AM
Tue, Jul. 28, 10:06 PM
- Another quarter of telecom earnings, and another quarter where analysts figure that Sprint (NYSE:S) will be overtaken by T-Mobile (NYSE:TMUS) in total customers to take the No. 3 spot among U.S. wireless providers.
- Last quarter, T-Mobile effectively captured all of the industry's subscriber growth, but Sprint held the No. 3 position, 57.1M customers to 56.8M, despite shedding some core postpaid phone subscribers.
- Now, analysts expect heat (and perhaps more Twitterfights) as they predict that T-Mobile may have finally taken the lead in the quarter ended June 30.
- GSMA Intelligence is expecting T-Mobile to report 58.9M customers to Sprint's 58.3M connections, when Sprint releases its final numbers Aug. 4.
- "It almost has a psychological significance that trumps the practical significance," says IDC's John Jackson.
- T-Mobile reports Thursday, and consensus estimates have it reporting $0.22/share in earnings on $7.96B in revenues and $1.77B in EBITDA. Sprint reports Aug. 4, and consensus estimates have it posting a loss of $0.05/share on $8.33B in revenues and $1.82B EBITDA.
Tue, Apr. 28, 8:42 PM
- During T-Mobile's (NYSE:TMUS) Q1 earnings call, colorful CEO John Legere took another opportunity to hint at the tie-up that increasingly seems to be in the company's future: with a cableco that offers broadband.
- Just days after FCC opposition killed the Comcast-TWC merger, Legere pointed to the need to counterbalance AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ), which combine wireless service with broadband offerings and even TV business.
- Regulators seem to be opposed to cable-cable deals, and wireless-wireless deals like aborted plans for a Sprint (NYSE:S) merger with T-Mobile -- but Legere notes a natural fit may occur across industries: "The tangential players are touching mobile players in a way that makes a go-to-market strategy."
- Analyst Craig Moffett urges caution, as regulators might already see the two industries as competition. "Wireless broadband is clearly the FCC's best hope for a counter to cable's wired advantage. They might decide that they aren't ready to allow a combination like that."
- Possible cable suitors: CMCSA, TWC, CHTR, CVC
- After earnings today, TMUS -0.3%.
- Related: T-Mobile US (TMUS) Q1 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript (Apr. 28 2015)
- Previously: T-Mobile grows Q1 revenues 13%, adds 1.8M subscribers (Apr. 28 2015)
- Previously: T-Mobile keeps fanning Dish partnership flames (Mar. 06 2015)
Tue, Apr. 28, 9:47 AM
- T-Mobile (NYSE:TMUS) opened 0.2% to the upside after posting revenue that grew 13% and beat expectations and logged its eighth straight quarter of 1M net subscriber additions.
- Adjusted EBITDA of $1.388B (up 27.6%) missed expectations of $1.397B.
- In subscriber numbers, the company posted 1.8M total net subscriber adds (1.1M branded postpaid net adds, 1M branded postpaid phone net adds). The company's expecting to capture all industry subscriber growth for Q1. Branded postpaid churn is down 17 bps to 1.3% (down 43 bps from Q4).
- Branded postpaid ARPU was down 3.8% sequentially to $46.43. Excluding a net revenue deferral tied to Data Stash, it declined 1.2% sequentially and 5.5% from the prior year.
- The company's raising its subscriber guidance for 2015, to 3.5M branded postpaid net adds (up from 3M). It's keeping its target for adjusted EBITDA of $6.8B-$7.2B, in line with expectations.
- Earnings call livestream at 10 a.m. ET.
- Q1 press release
Tue, Apr. 28, 7:34 AM
Mon, Apr. 27, 7:34 PM
- T-Mobile (NYSE:TMUS) reports earnings Tuesday morning and it's likely going to be the only major U.S. wireless firm to actually add postpaid subscribers, Goldman Sachs says.
- Revenues are expected to rise 12%, a contrast to AT&T and Verizon, where wireless service revenues dropped in Q1.
- As necessary as it is, the sub growth could "pressure Q1 EBITDA and EBITDA margins," says Evercore's Jonathan Schildkraut. T-Mobile had forecast postpaid subscriber adds of 2.2M-3.2M.
- Consensus expectations have the company losing $0.04/share (losing $0.10/share on a GAAP basis) on $7.7B in revenues. EBITDA is expected at $1.4B.
Mon, Feb. 23, 9:08 PM
- It hasn't gone unnoticed by Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) watchers that Chairman Charlie Ergen has retaken the chief-executive helm -- which has provided no end of speculation as to what Dish plans to do with all the wireless spectrum it's acquiring.
- Like Seinfeld, Ergen has noted, sometimes nothing happens and then the plan becomes clear -- suggesting that instead of cashing out assets or selling to a big rival, he may be ready to charge aggressively into wireless mobile competition.
- While many observers conclude that Dish is investing in valuable spectrum to sell it, Ergen has pursued both MetroPCS and Sprint before to get into the wireless phone business.
- Miriam Gottfried at the WSJ notes that in a mature industry, Dish is looking more like a spectrum holding company with a satellite TV business riding along.
- Ergen's still showing as few cards as possible: "I think virtually everything that somebody suggested on this call" are potentially options for Dish, he said in today's earnings call. He noted the outcome of mergers like Comcast/Time Warner and AT&T/DirecTV will help shape Dish's future.
- Deals are still on their radar: “We don’t have everything we need in terms of assets," he said during the call, with particular words of praise for T-Mobile (NYSE:TMUS).
- Q4 earnings
- Previously: Citi: Dish spectrum hoard means stock is undervalued (Feb. 17 2015)
Thu, Feb. 19, 8:36 AM
- "We killed it," says T-Mobile (NYSE:TMUS) CEO John Legere of the company's Q4 earnings that rose 19.4% and swung from a Q3 loss.
- Adjusted EBITDA of $1.8B (up 41.3%) beat expectations of $1.62B.
- Customer growth: A record year culminated in 2.1M net subscriber adds (1.3M branded postpaid net adds, 1M branded postpaid phone net adds). The company says it captured nearly 80% of industry postpaid phone growth in Q4 and nearly 100% for the full year.
- For the full year, T-Mobile added 8.3M net customers to end with 55M total. (Total branded postpaid net adds in 2014 were 4.9M -- more than 4M phone net adds and 839K mobile broadband.)
- Branded postpaid average billings per user up 5.1% to record $61.80; branded postpaid phone ARPU of $48.26.
- The company guided to 2015 EBITDA of $6.8B-7.2B vs. an expected $7.22B, and targeted 2.2M-3.2M branded postpaid net customer adds. It expects 2015 cash capex of $4.4B-$4.7B.
- Conference call at 9 a.m. ET.
- Shares are up 3.2% premarket.
- Press release
Thu, Feb. 19, 6:11 AM
Wed, Jan. 7, 10:34 AM
- T-Mobile (TMUS +1.6%) added 1.28M branded postpaid subscribers in Q4 - down slightly from 1.38M in Q3 but up from 869K a year ago, and evidence of further share gains fueled by the carrier's aggressive pricing. Branded postpaid phone net adds totaled 1.04M, and branded mobile broadband net adds 239K.
- 266K branded prepaid subs were added vs. 411K in Q3 and 112K a year ago. M2M sub growth totaled 152K vs. 222K in Q3 and 172K a year ago, and MVNO sub growth amounted to 434K vs. 333K in Q3 and 492K a year ago.
- For the whole of 2014, T-Mobile added 8.3M subs, including 4.9M branded postpaid and 4M branded postpaid phone subs. The branded postpaid base stood at 27.2M at year's end (25.8M phone), and the branded prepaid base at 16.3M.
- In his 2015 predictions (previous), CEO John Legere suggested T-Mobile will try to add to its momentum by targeting U.S. consumers who still don't have a smartphone (roughly 1/4 of the populace) and/or Internet access, as well as SMBs.
T-Mobile US Inc provides wireless communication services in the postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale markets. The Company's products and services include voice, messaging, data services, wireless devices, smartphones and other mobile communication devices.
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