Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF (TMV) - NYSEARCA
  • Fri, May 27, 7:41 AM
    • The week's main Fed event is an appearance by the Fed boss this afternoon at Harvard. While many expect Yellen to give another boost to the recent hawkish turn by the Fed, Jeff Gundlach anticipates she'll use the appearance to temper bets on a more rapid rise in rates.
    • Gundlach says the Fed won't hike in June unless futures markets show the chances of such a move as greater than 50%. Those odds are currently at just 28%.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 1.83%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Fri, May 27, 7:41 AM | 9 Comments
  • Thu, May 26, 7:48 PM
    • With traders holding back from the barbecue to take in Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech Friday -- and following Fed Governor Jerome Powell's note today that a rate hike is appropriate "fairly soon" -- DoubleLine honcho Jeffrey Gundlach says he's expecting she'll be "dovish" when she speaks.
    • He does think, based on the yield curve, there's up to a 75% chance that the Fed will raise rates this year -- which would weaken the dollar.
    • And if the S&P 500 falls below 2,000, it's going to 1,600, he added. The index closed flat at 2,090 today.
    • Yellen will be making her first public appearance in almost two months when she takes part in a Q&A with Harvard's Gregory Mankiw after receiving the Radcliffe Medal Friday.
    • ETFs: SPY, SH, TBT, TLT, SSO, VOO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, TMV, RSP, SPXS, TBF, EDV, RWL, VFINX, TMF, EPS, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, SPLX, SFLALBND, SPUU, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS, LLSP, RYARX
    | Thu, May 26, 7:48 PM | 34 Comments
  • Tue, May 24, 10:15 AM
    • Those angling for a hike in interest rates at the June FOMC meeting got a boost to their argument a few minutes ago, as new home sales in April soared way past expectations and to their highest level in eight years.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is higher by three basis points to 1.864%. TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2%
    • Short-term rate markets are pricing in about a 40% chance of a June move by the Fed, and a near-100% chance by summer's end. They've also begun pricing in odds of two rate hikes by the end of 2016.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, BIL, UBT, DLBS, TLO, VGSH, SHV, SCHO, LBND, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS, SST, DTUS, TUZ, DTUL, RISE
    | Tue, May 24, 10:15 AM | 3 Comments
  • Mon, May 23, 11:59 AM
    • The hawkish reversal at the Fed over the past few sessions has sent the yield on the two-year Treasury note to 0.91% - it's highest level since March 15. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to just 1.85%, bringing the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year down to its lowest point since November 2007.
    • Then, as now, the Fed mostly shrugged off the yield curve's reliability as an indicator of a coming slowdown.
    • Fedspeak today and over the weekend continues to try and lay the groundwork for a June move. Short-term rate markets see just shy of a 30% chance of a hike next month. Markets await the week's main event - a speech from Janet Yellen at 1:15 ET on Friday.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, IEI, TYO, UBT, UST, DLBS, DTYS, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, ITE, GSY, LBND, TYD, DTYL, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Mon, May 23, 11:59 AM | 1 Comment
  • Tue, May 17, 3:37 PM
    • Keeping bond traders on their toes, the Fed trotted out a couple of their moderates today to pronounce June a "live" meeting. Markets, say the Atlanta Fed's Dennis Lockhart and SF's John Williams have got it wrong in predicting a minuscule chance of a June rate hike.
    • Chastened thus, short-term rate markets sell off just a bit, with the two-year Treasury yield up three basis points to 0.82%, and Fed Funds futures upping the chance of a June move to about one-in-six.
    • The 10-year yield is flat at 1.76% and stocks are off more than 1%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Tue, May 17, 3:37 PM | 8 Comments
  • Fri, May 13, 2:31 PM
    | Fri, May 13, 2:31 PM | 6 Comments
  • Wed, May 4, 8:25 AM
    • Just 156K private-sector jobs were added in April, according to ADP, the weakest number going back at least one year (though July 2015 was 158K). Expectations were for 193K.
    • Checking revisions, the past three months are all lower: March's 200K gain was revised down to 194K, February's 214K was cut to 207K, and January's 205K was lowered to 193K.
    • Back to April: Service-producing sector jobs rose 166K, and the goods producing lost 11K, led by a 13K drop in manufacturing jobs.
    • Treasurys have added to gains, with TLT +0.4% and TBT -0.8% premarket. The 10-year yield is down two basis points at 1.78%.
    • Full report
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Wed, May 4, 8:25 AM | 23 Comments
  • Mon, May 2, 10:21 AM
    | Mon, May 2, 10:21 AM
  • Fri, Apr. 29, 10:13 AM
    • The Chicago PMI slipped to 50.4 in April from 53.6 previously. Expectations had been for just a marginal decline.
    • The fall was led by New Orders, which dipped to their lowest level since December. Backlogs saw a double-digit decline, and employment fell back into the contraction zone below 50.
    • Production, meanwhile, posted a small rise, while supplier deliveries jumped to the strongest level since October 2014.
    • Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow: “This was a disappointing start to the second quarter ... panelists are now more worried about the impact a rate hike might have on business than they were at the same time last year.”
    • Full report here
    • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has dipped a bit since the print, but is still higher by 2 bps on the session to 1.84%. TLT -0.35%, TBT +0.7%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Fri, Apr. 29, 10:13 AM | 14 Comments
  • Tue, Apr. 26, 1:05 PM
    • It's not the news that matters, say traders, it's the way markets react. If so, then long-dated Treasurys are firmly ensconced in a bear move as the 10-year yield climbs to 1.94% despite soft reads this morning on durable goods and consumer confidence.
    • Tomorrow will see the results of the FOMC's two-day meeting, and the policy statement will be studied for clues about the chances of a June rate hike.
    • Also at work is oil - it's up more than another 3% today, and now selling for more than $44 per barrel.
    • TLT -0.35%, TBT +0.7%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Tue, Apr. 26, 1:05 PM | 1 Comment
  • Mon, Apr. 25, 12:04 PM
    • “There is a strong feeling of déjà vu in markets right now,” says UBS's Jeff Greenberg, commenting on what's become an annual rite - a move up in interest rates as investors become convinced economic and geopolitical concerns are off the table. "The similarities in some markets are uncanny."
    • After falling to nearly 1.50% at the lows in mid-February, the 10-year Treasury yield has shot up to 1.90%. Similar moves are evident in government bond markets overseas - Germany, for instance, has seen its 10-year Bund yield rise to 0.23% from 0.08%.
    • Fans will be reminded of last year when the Bund yield shot all the way to 1% from 0.07% before a quick reversal.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Mon, Apr. 25, 12:04 PM | 3 Comments
  • Wed, Apr. 20, 11:27 AM
    | Wed, Apr. 20, 11:27 AM
  • Fri, Apr. 1, 11:25 AM
    • The relationship between the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index and the 10-year Treasury yield has been a pretty steady one - when one rises, so does the other. There's been a divergence of late though, with the data since the year began consistently topping expectations, but the Treasury yield falling.
    • The Bondvigilantes wonder whether it's dovish Fed rhetoric knocking maybe 60 basis points from 10-year yields.
    • Also maybe at work are the actions of global central banks - benchmark rates in Europe and Japan are below zero, the German 10-year Bund yield is 0.15%, and 10-year JGBs are at negative six basis points! Even Italian 10-year yields are at 1.22%. By comparison, the 10-year U.S. Treasury near 2% is positively towering.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, IEI, TYO, UBT, UST, DLBS, DTYS, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, ITE, GSY, LBND, TYD, DTYL, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS, DFVL, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Fri, Apr. 1, 11:25 AM | 9 Comments
  • Fri, Apr. 1, 8:40 AM
    • Alongside 215K jobs created in March (vs. expectations for 205K), February's 242K gain was revised higher by 3K, and January's 172K to 168K, so we'll call revisions a wash.
    • The wage growth number has become the important one of late, and in March hourly average earnings increased $0.07 to $25.43 following February's $0.03 decline. On a Y/Y basis, average hourly earnings are higher 2.3%.
    • The average workweek was flat at 34.4 hours (where can I get that job?).
    • Likely causing the tick higher in the headline unemployment rate was a tick higher in the labor force participation rate to 63% from 62.9%. The broader U-6 unemployment rate rose to 9.8% from 9.7%. A year ago it was 10.9%.
    • Already up two basis points ahead of the NFP report, the 10-year Treasury yield remains so at 1.79%. TLT -0.2%, TBT +0.4%
    • Previously: Jobs inline, unemployment rate ticks higher (April 1)
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    • Now read: Implications Of Increasing Amplitudes In Boom-Bust Cycles (April 1)
    | Fri, Apr. 1, 8:40 AM | 4 Comments
  • Thu, Mar. 31, 3:31 PM
    • Like gold - which is closing its best quarter in three decades - Treasury prices benefitted from the panic in risk assets to being the quarter. Even with the major bounce in markets since mid-February, Treasurys managed to hold on to enough of their gains for yields to fall the most since the end of 2012.
    • The 10-year yield is lower by another five bps today to 1.78% (they began the year at about 2.25% and fell as low as 1.52% at the market bottom).
    • The bull run for Treasurys is happening even as the employment and housing markets continue to pick up steam. “It is hard to figure out what is really going on with the disconnect between data and the bond market,’’ says one trader, summing up the frustration for the bears. “Am I missing something?’’
    • "I don’t think the Treasury yield curve is sending purely economic signals these days as the U.S. economy is likely stronger than the curve suggests,’’ says a portfolio manager.
    • Previously: Money poured into fixed-income ETFs in Q1 (March 31)
    • Now read: Why It's (Seemingly Always) Time To Buy Treasuries
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Thu, Mar. 31, 3:31 PM | 3 Comments
  • Thu, Mar. 24, 9:05 AM
    • St. Louis Fed President yesterday pushed along a rally in the dollar and tumble in gold with his hawkish comments, and he's back at it again this morning, saying the next rate hike may not be far off.
    • What we've seen over the past few days is a furious attempt by the Fed to walk back what was perceived as a very dovish result to last week's FOMC meeting - which included updated projections showing a median forecast of just two rate hikes this year (vs. four previously).
    • Futures markets are currently pricing in a less than one-in-five chance of a rate hike in April. With respect to rate hikes, markets have had it all right and the Fed all wrong up to now. Bullard, who has been a leading hawk, leading dove, and now leading hawk again - all within the space of a few months - insists the Fed's credibility remains intact.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by one basis point at 1.86%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Thu, Mar. 24, 9:05 AM | 10 Comments
TMV Description
The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the inverse (or opposite) of the price performance of the 20+ Year Treasury Index. There is no guarantee the fund will meet its stated investment objective.
See more details on sponsor's website
Country: United States
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