Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF
 (TMV)

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  • Jan. 6, 2015, 7:16 AM
    • The improbable (to most) rally in long-dated U.S. government paper continued overnight, with the 10-year yield dipping down all the way to 1.98%. It's bounced since, and currently stands at 2.00%, off three basis points on the session.
    • It's a global rally, with bonds in the BAML Global Broad Market Sovereign Plus Index having an effective yield of just 1.28% - an all-time low (data is from 1996 on). A sampling: Japan 10-years 0.29%, German 10-years 0.47%, Spain 1.55%, U.K. 1.62%, Italy 1.77%, Australia 2.7%.
    • TLT +0.5%, TBT -1%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, JGBS, JGBD, BNDX, ZROZ, BWX, SBND, TLH, VGLT, DLBS, UBT, TLO, IGOV, BUNL, JGBL, ITLY, TENZ, LBND, ITLT, JGBT, GGOV, TYBS, DLBL, BUNT, JGBB
    | Jan. 6, 2015, 7:16 AM | 5 Comments
  • Jan. 5, 2015, 10:13 AM
    | Jan. 5, 2015, 10:13 AM | 7 Comments
  • Jan. 3, 2015, 9:14 AM
    • In what's become an annual rite of passage, long-dated U.S. Treasurys top most prognosticators' lists of what not to own in the coming year. Jeff Gundlach doesn't make the big money by following the crowd, though, and he thinks the 10-year Treasury yield in 2014 could take out its 2012 low of 1.38% (it closed at 2.11% last night) - this even as the Fed hikes short-term rates.
    • Deflationary forces are still in charge, Gundlach tells Barron's, and could even strengthen if oil continues to decline. “Look, commodity prices have fallen back to their lows of 2009, which of course was at the height of the financial crisis. Something is obviously very wrong these days in the global economy.”
    • As for demand for U.S. paper now that the Fed has stopped QE, it's coming from overseas as nominally low U.S. yields positively tower over what's available domestically to investors in Germany, Japan, the U.K., and yes, Italy and Spain.
    • Gundlach's DoulbeLine Total Return Fund (MUTF:DBLTX) - with $40B in AUM - and DoubleLine Core Fixed Income (MUTF:DBLFX) both finished in the top decile of their Morningstar groups in 2014.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, VGLT, DLBS, UBT, STPP, TLO, PLW, GOVT, FLAT, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL, TAPR
    | Jan. 3, 2015, 9:14 AM | 63 Comments
  • Jan. 2, 2015, 10:10 AM
    | Jan. 2, 2015, 10:10 AM
  • Dec. 29, 2014, 12:56 PM
    • A Greek vote paving the way for January elections that could bring the anti-bailout Syriza party into power have led risk-averse investors to flock to U.S. Treasurys and German Bunds. The 5-year Treasury yield is down 5 bps to 1.72%; the 10-year by 4 bps to 2.21%; and the 30-year by 4 bps to 2.78%.
    • The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index is up 5.7% YTD, its biggest gain since 2011. The performance has been accompanied by a flattened yield curve: Treasuries with maturities greater than 10 years are up 23.4%, while those with maturities of 1-5 years are up only 1.1% as the Fed signals rate hikes will eventually arrive.
    • In spite of the 2014 gains and the yield-dampening impact of recent macro events, forecasters have become increasingly pessimistic about 2015 due to rate hike fears. The Bank of Tokyo's Chris Rupkey: "Next year should be the break-out year finally ... The market is ignoring the rhetoric that Yellen and the FOMC is getting closer and closer to tightening. The market has it wrong.”
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, TYO, VGLT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, UBT, TLO, VGIT, TBX, BUNL, GSY, TENZ, SCHR, DTYL, TYD, LBND, ITE, GGOV, DLBL, TYBS, BUNT, DFVL, TBZ, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | Dec. 29, 2014, 12:56 PM
  • Dec. 16, 2014, 7:34 AM
    | Dec. 16, 2014, 7:34 AM | 4 Comments
  • Dec. 12, 2014, 11:24 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled all the way to 2.08% - a 16-month low if one forgets October's flash crash in yields. The 30-year is down to 2.77%.
    • Checking Europe, German 10-year yields look about ready to challenge Japan, down another five basis points to 0.63% (Japan's at 0.40%). In the U.K., 10-year government paper yields 1.81%, Spain 1.88%, Italy 2.04% - all less than the U.S.
    • 30-Day Fed Funds Futures contracts continue to price in a rate hike next year, but it's been pushed back to the September/October time frame.
    • TLT +0.8%, TBT -1.6%
    • The moves come, of course, as oil continues to carve out new multi-year lows (now down 3% on the session to $58.15 per barrel), setting off broad declines in the equity averages here and across the pond.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, EU, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, TYO, VGLT, DLBS, DTYS, BIL, UST, UBT, TLO, VGSH, VGIT, SHV, TBX, SCHO, BUNL, GSY, ITLY, SCHR, TENZ, DTYL, TYD, LBND, ITLT, ITE, DTUS, GGOV, TYBS, SST, DLBL, BUNT, DTUL, DFVL, TUZ, TBZ, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | Dec. 12, 2014, 11:24 AM | 10 Comments
  • Dec. 9, 2014, 9:47 AM
    • Friday's blowout jobs number seems like a long time ago as the 10-year Treasury yield slides another five basis points, leaving it at 2.21% - lower now than it stood ahead of the payroll report.
    • Investors are instead focused on shaky asset markets - first crude oil (lower on the session after a meek attempt at a bounce overnight), and now stock markets, particularly plunges in Greece and Shanghai today.
    • "If one is serious about investing," says Joe Brusuelas, "you want to look at this chart ... because the Fed is." The graph shows the continuing steep decline in inflation expectations, now matching the low levels last seen in 2010 and 2011.
    • TLT +0.9%, TBT -1.8%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, TYO, VGLT, DLBS, DTYS, BIL, UST, UBT, TLO, VGSH, VGIT, SHV, TBX, SCHO, GSY, TENZ, SCHR, DTYL, TYD, LBND, ITE, DTUS, SST, TYBS, DLBL, DTUL, TUZ, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
    | Dec. 9, 2014, 9:47 AM | 1 Comment
  • Dec. 5, 2014, 8:46 AM
    | Dec. 5, 2014, 8:46 AM | 7 Comments
  • Nov. 25, 2014, 8:50 AM
    | Nov. 25, 2014, 8:50 AM | 1 Comment
  • Nov. 24, 2014, 12:44 PM
    | Nov. 24, 2014, 12:44 PM | 38 Comments
  • Nov. 19, 2014, 2:25 PM
    | Nov. 19, 2014, 2:25 PM | 3 Comments
  • Nov. 19, 2014, 9:58 AM
    • Alan Greenspan called it a "conundrum," but some just saw it as another failure of the Fed's central planning.
    • “We wanted to control the federal funds rate, but ran into trouble because long-term rates did not, as they always had previously, respond to the rise in short-term rates,” recently said the Maestro, harking back to the middle of the last decade when yields at the long end of the curve fell despite the stomping of Greenspan's feet.
    • Today's crop of bond investors is again betting on the market instead of the Fed, taking long-term rates down even as central bankers prep hikes on the short end. A rising short end combined with a stable or falling long end could quickly lead to an inverted yield curve, "turn(ing) credit creation on its head," says economics professor Tim Duy. "I'm sort of wondering what's the game plan here."
    • One tool today's crop of central bankers has that Greenspan didn't: A $4.49T portfolio accumulated thanks to three rounds of QE. A sale of some of those assets could be a way to lift long-term rates, suggests Barclays' Michael Gapen. Ugh.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, PST, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, TYO, VGLT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, UBT, TLO, PLW, VGIT, GOVT, TBX, GSY, TENZ, DTYL, SCHR, TYD, LBND, ITE, DLBL, TYBS, TBZ, DFVL, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS, TAPR, SYTL
    | Nov. 19, 2014, 9:58 AM | 5 Comments
  • Oct. 27, 2014, 1:09 PM
    • Busy fighting the financial crisis six after it happened, regulators are doing an excellent job laying the groundwork for the next one as evidenced by the panicky action in Treasurys on October 15. It was on that morning when the 10-year Treasury yield in the space of a few minutes tumbled to 1.90% from 2.20%, before ending the session at 2.15% (for those who don't play in fixed-income, U.S. Treasury yields very rarely ever move that much).
    • The panic buying in Treasurys also leaked over into jumpy selling in stock index futures.
    • "It was like turning the clocks back to pre-electronic trading," says Charles Comiskey, head Treasury dealer at Scotiabank. "Once we recognized things started getting out of control, we shut [the electronic trading system] off immediately."
    • Laser-focused on forcing banks to cut back on risk, regulators have forced lenders to vastly scale down their inventory of bonds, and the thinner markets make outsized moves more likely. JPMorgan estimates the amount of Treasurys available to trade at one time without moving prices has plunged 48% to just $150M since April.
    • “There’s a thin line to keeping the customer happy while also giving a level that you can at least get out of without taking a big loss right away,” says Guggenheim's Jason Rogan, whose firm also shut off the machines that morning.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, PLW, GOVT, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL, TAPR
    | Oct. 27, 2014, 1:09 PM | 2 Comments
  • Oct. 22, 2014, 10:30 PM
    | Oct. 22, 2014, 10:30 PM | 22 Comments
  • Oct. 20, 2014, 11:16 AM
    • Wetting their fingers and sticking them in the wind, strategists at Goldman Sachs cut their year-end forecast for the U.S. Treasury yield to 2.50% from 3%, and those at JPMorgan to 2.45% from 2.7%. The moves come following a plunge in the 10-year yield over the past month - to 2.19% from 2.66%.
    • The revisions underscore what is becoming a nearly annual event where January 1 sees nearly all of the Street recommending investors shun long-term U.S. government paper, only to reverse themselves some months later (Goldman started the year expecting 3.25%, and JPMorgan 3.65%).
    • “We think anxieties about the ‘passage of the baton’ between the Fed and the ECB have increased," says Goldman's Francesco Garzarelli.
    • Kudos to the team at HSBC - about the only bond bull which could be found at the start of the year - which called back then for a year-end 10-year yield of 2.1%.
    • TLT +0.1%, TBT -0.2%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL
    | Oct. 20, 2014, 11:16 AM | 4 Comments
TMV Description
The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the inverse (or opposite) of the price performance of the 20+ Year Treasury Index. There is no guarantee the fund will meet its stated investment objective.
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Country: United States
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