Toll Brothers Is Immune To The Fed And Could Double In 2 Years
Troy Bayer • 11 Comments
Troy Bayer • 11 Comments
Yesterday, 10:16 AM
- June new home sales came in at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 592K, up from May's rate of 572K, and the fastest pace since February 2008.
- Expectations had been for 560K.
- The median price of $306.7K was up 6% Y/Y, and inventory fell to 4.9 months at the current sales pace.
- New home sales in Q2 were up 10% from Q1.
- The ITB popped higher on the news, but has retreated a bit since, now up 0.2% on the session. XHB +0.4%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +0.2%), Hovnanian (HOV +0.8%), Lennar (LEN -0.7%), KB Home (KBH +0.1%), PulteGroup (PHM +0.1%)
Mon, Jul. 18, 10:08 AM
- The team upgrades Toll Brothers (TOL +0.1%) to Buy from Neutral, while cutting KB Home (KBH -1.5%) to Neutral from Buy.
- It could be a valuation call, as the two homebuilders have been headed in opposite directions, with TOL in the red for 2016, and KBH higher by 60%.
- Meanwhile the NAHB reported the tiniest of slides in its builder confidence index, which slipped to 59 from 60.
Fri, Jun. 17, 10:30 AM
- May housing starts at a seasonally-adjusted annualized pace of 1.164M edged lower from April, but were up 9.5% from a year ago (and vs. expected 1.15M). Single-family starts of 764K were slightly higher than April.
- The major averages are modestly lower on the session, but the homebuilders (ITB +1%) are posting strong gains, led by Toll Brothers (TOL +1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.8%), Lennar (LEN +1.2%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.4%), Beazer (BZH +4.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.2%).
Tue, Jun. 7, 2:31 PM
- The major averages are up modestly, but the homebuilders (ITB +2.2%) are posting sharp gains, helped by a report Elliot Management has taken a stake in PulteGroup. Pulte is leading the way with a 4.6% advance.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.9%), KB Home (KBH +3%), Lennar (LEN +3.1%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC +3.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.7%)
Tue, May 24, 10:09 AM
- April new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 619K were a full 16.6% above the upwardly revised March print, and 23.8% higher than year-ago levels. The number also flew past expectations for just a 2% rise to 523K.
- Sales in the Northeast of 55K gained from 36K in March; Midwest of 60K down from 63K; South of 352K vs. 304K; West of 152K vs. 128K.
- Full report
- Tossing this bit of information in with strong FQ2 earnings from Toll Brothers (TOL +6.4%) has the homeowners (ITB +2.7%) surging well ahead of the market averages.
- Hovnanian (HOV +4.9%), KB Home (KBH +3.8%), Beazer (BZH +5.4%), Lennar (LEN +3.2%), Pulte (PHM +3.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +3.3%)
Tue, May 24, 9:14 AM
Tue, May 24, 7:05 AM
- FQ2 net income of $89.1M or $0.51 per share vs. $67.9M and $0.37 one year ago.
- Revenue of $1.12B up 31% Y/Y; deliveries of 1,304 units up 9%. ASP of $855.5K up from $713.5K.
- Net signed contracts of $1.65B up 3%; 1,993 units also up 3%. ASP of $825.5K vs. $826.3K.
- Backlog of $4.19B and 4,940 units up 20% in dollars and 13% in units. ASP of $848.6K vs. $793.8K.
- Gross margin of 25.7% vs. 25.3%. SG&A as a percent of revenue of 11.5% vs. 12.6%.
- 2.9M shares bought back during quarter at average price of $27.27 each. Another 1.8M shares have been repurchased at average price of $26.50 so far in FQ3. The prior program has been terminated and a new 20M share one has been launched.
- Full-year guidance of 5.8K-6.3K in home deliveries at ASP of $820K-$850K, translating to projected revenues of $4.76B-$5.36B vs. FY15's $4.17B. Full-year gross margin of 25.8%-26.2%.
- CEO Doug Yearley says contracts through the first three weeks of FQ3 are about flat from a year ago.
- Conference call at 11 ET
- Previously: Toll Brothers reports FQ2 results (May 24)
- TOL +3.3% premarket
Tue, May 24, 5:37 AM
Mon, May 23, 5:30 PM
Mon, Apr. 18, 7:56 AM
- Together with an unnamed institutional investor, Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) - through its Gibraltar Capital and Asset Mangement subsidiary - announces a venture to provide builders and developers with land banking and JV capital.
- The new business will have a total of $400M of funding commitments - 75% from the instituional investor and 25% from Toll.
- Alongside this deal, Toll and its partner have formed a separate 75/25 JV which acquired most of Gibraltar's existing portfolio. Gibraltar was formed in 2010 to acquire distressed real estate loan portfolios from financial institutions.
- Source: Press Release
- Now read: More Proof That A Real Estate Bubble Is Brewing (April 15)
Mon, Apr. 11, 10:58 AM
- The company's move into luxury condo development (mostly in NYC) over the past few years has paid off, but worries about a looming bust in the Big Apple have helped send Toll Brothers (TOL +1.6%) stock sharply lower since August, writes Andrew Bary.
- The market, says Bary, is overreacting. "We've had to pull back a little on price, but the sky is not falling," says Toll CEO Doug Yearley. Deutsche's Nishu Sood said even if prices for Toll's 180 NYC unsold condos (average asking price of $3M each) come in 15% below expectations, it would be just a 3-4% earnings hit this fiscal year and next.
- What's more, the condo focus is distracting from strength in the company's core single-family homes operation, with signed contracts up for the sixth straight quarter in the three months ended in January. The shares trade for 11x estimated earnings and 1.3x book value of $23 per share.
- Now read: Toll Brothers: Pay Attention To Accounting Policies
Mon, Mar. 21, 11:47 AM
- Existing home sales tumbled 7.1% in February to a seasonally-adjusted annualized pace of 5.08M. Expectations had been for just a mild slip to 5.31M from 5.47M previously.
- The news is a good excuse to take profits in the homebuilders after a big run higher over the past six weeks.
- ITB -1.05%, XHB -0.6%
- Toll Brothers (TOL -1%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.9%), Lennar (LEN -1.1%), KB Home (KBH -1.5%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1%), PulteGroup (PHM -2.6%)
Mon, Mar. 7, 12:43 PM
- Presenting at the Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference, Toll Brothers (TOL +0.4%) CFO Martin Connor - noting pent-up demand - says the company's bullish on the spring selling season. For the first three weeks of FQ2 (began Feb. 1), deposits have been flat when compared with last year.
- The presentation slides offer up a number of nice data points for housing industry (ITB, XHB) fans ...
- Toll Brothers' average delivered home price last year was $755K, putting it at the top of publicly traded homebuilders. At the bottom of the group was D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) at $286K, with shops like Lennar (NYSE:LEN) at $326K and Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) at $382K.
- Bubble reminder: In Q2 of 2006, Toll had 91,207 lots owned and optioned; today 43,819. Revenues in 2006 were $6.115B vs. $1.476B in 2011 and $4.171B last year.
Wed, Feb. 24, 10:07 AM
- New home sales at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 494K in January were 9.2% lower than December and 5.2% above the level one year ago.
- Most regions were fairly stable, with the exception of the West, where sales dropped to 110K from 162K.
- The homebuilder ETFs - ITB, XHB - are down about 1.5%, inline with the broader market.
- Individual names: Toll Brothers (TOL -2.5%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.4%), Lennar (LEN -2%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.1%), Putle (PHM -1.5%), KB Home (KBH -2.1%)
Tue, Feb. 23, 7:31 AM
- FQ1 (ended Jan. 31) net income of $73.2M or $0.40 per share vs. $81.3M or $0.44 a year earlier.
- Homebuilding deliveries of 1,063 units down 3% in units, up 9% in dollars. ASP of $873.5K vs. $782.3K.
- Net signed contracts of 1,250 units up 18% in units, and 24% in dollars. ASP of $869.9K vs. $821.5K.
- Backlog of 4,251 units up 16% in units, up 34% in dollars. ASP of $861.6K vs. $750.3K.
- Gross margin of 26.9% down from 27.3%.
- 4.8M shares bought back during quarter at average price of $31.48 each.
- Full-year deliveries expected to be 5.7K-6.4K homes at average price of $810K-$850K. Gross margins of 25.8-26.2%.
- Deposits and contracts signed in February were flat from a year ago, though traffic was up. Management says the anxiety over the economy reflected in the stock market gyrations is not something its seeing in its business.
- Previously: Toll Brothers misses by $0.01, beats on revenue (Feb. 23)
- TOL flat premarket
Tue, Feb. 23, 5:34 AM
Toll Brothers, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and marketing of detached and attached homes. It also builds or converts existing rental apartment buildings into high-, mid-, and low-rise luxury homes. It operates through the Traditional Home Building and City Living segments. The... More
Sector: Industrial Goods
Industry: Residential Construction
Country: United States
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