Fri, Nov. 13, 10:33 AM
- Down 9% over the last three months, Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) offers an attractive entry point, says JPMorgan's Michael Rehau, upgrading to Overweight from Neutral, while boosting the price target to $45 from $41.50.
- Toll is up just 4% YTD and 10% since the start of 2013, he notes, versus large-cap homebuilder peers up 11% and 40% on average, respectively. At current prices, Toll is roughly-in line with peers as compared to an historical 10% premium.
- This, says Rehau, as he expects the company to deliver above-average fundamental performance in FY16.
- Toll was up at the open on the upgrade, but is now down 0.15% to $35.50.
Tue, Nov. 10, 12:15 PM
- D.R. Horton is up 6.8% after cruising through FQ4 estimates, with orders, backlogs, and closings all up smartly, but prices up only modestly. Pre-tax margin gained 60 basis points to 10.7%, and the company boosted its quarterly dividend by two pennies to $0.08 per share (1% yield).
- Bears might note the beat was helped along by a $17.5M benefit from the company's DTA, but the bulls control the tape today.
- With the major averages in the red, the homebuilder ETF is up sharply, ITB +1.4%. More focused on industry suppliers, the XHB is up 0.4%.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.7%), PulteGroup (PHM +2.4%), Lennar (LEN +1.5%), Ryland (RYL), KB Home (KBH +2.3%), Hovnanian (HOV -0.8%).
- Previously: More on D.R. Horton's FQ4 beat (Nov. 10)
- Previously: D. R. Horton beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (Nov. 10)
Mon, Nov. 9, 7:38 AM
- FQ4 total revenues of $1.44B and 1,820 units up 6% in dollars and 1% in units year-over-year. ASP of $790K vs. $747K.
- Net signed contracts of $1.25B and 1,437 units up 29% in dollars and 12% in units. ASP of $872K vs. $757K.
- Backlog of $3.5B and 4,064 units up 29% in dollars and 10% in units. ASP of $862K vs. $739K.
- The company put out the numbers ahead of its presentation at a UBS conference on Wednesday. The full report comes on Dec. 8.
- Source: Press Release
- TOL flat premarket
Tue, Oct. 27, 6:54 PM
- Toll Brothers (TOL -2.5%) has priced an offering of $350M in senior notes.
- The 4.875% senior notes are due November 2025, with settlement to come Oct. 30.
- Proceeds will go to general purposes, which might include acquisition of land and development of new projects as well as debt repayment.
- In its most recent quarter, Toll Brothers reported $404.8M in cash against total debt of $3.32B (debt/equity of 80.5).
- Shares were flat in after-hours action.
Mon, Oct. 26, 10:11 AM
- The pace of new home sales tumbled to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 468K in September. That's down 11.5% from August's 529K (revised down from 552K), and just 2% above the level of a year ago. Analysts had expected a 550K pace in September.
- The Northeast suffered an unusually large decline, with sales dropping to 13K from 34K ... must have been the weather. Sales in the Midwest fell to 55K from 60K; South to 274K from 300K; West to 126K from 135K.
- Maybe a bigger issue are prices: The median price of 296.9K was 13.5% higher than a year ago.
- The homebuilders aren't liking the news: Toll Brothers (TOL -2%), Lennar (LEN -1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.8%), KB Home (KBH -2.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI -2.5%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.4%)
- ITB -1.6%, XHB -0.7%
- Full report
- Previously: New Home Sales hits 10-month low at 468K (Oct. 26)
Thu, Oct. 22, 12:03 PM
- The major averages are up 1.5%, and a strong existing home sales number this morning added to a beat in housing starts earlier this week, but the homebuilders are retreating.
- At work are weaker-than-hoped reports from PulteGroup (PHM -6.4%) and M/I Homes (MHO -5.7%).
- Pulte reported a decline in closings, with ASPs up just a hair vs. the 8% gain in sales prices a year ago. Home sales in Texas slumped 15%, and while net new orders for the company overall rose 8%, they fell 5% in that state.
- KB Home (KBH -4.3%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1%), Lennar (LEN -0.6%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.2%)
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: Sale price gains slow down at Pulte (Oct. 22)
- Previously: M/I Homes misses by $0.04, misses on revenue (Oct. 22)
Tue, Oct. 13, 9:51 AM
- Upgraded to Overweight is Toll Brothers (TOL -0.1%), and upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight is KB Home (KBH +0.5%). The TOL price target of $44 is nearly 20% above last night's close.
- Downgraded to Under Weight is Pulte Group (PHM -2.3%), with the price target cut to $18 from $22 (current price is $19.64).
- Checking relative performance, Toll Brothers is up 8.4% YTD, while Pulte is down 8.4% and KBHome is down 10.2%.
Thu, Sep. 24, 10:15 AM
- SIngle-family new home sales in August at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 552K were up 5.7% from July (itself upwardly revised to 522K from 505K). August's pace was also up 21.6% from a year ago.
- By region, Northeast sales of 36K rose from 29K, Midwest to 60K vs. 66K, South 319K from 297K, and West 137K vs. 130K.
- Despite the strong August results, homebuilders remain lower alongside the broader market.
- Leading the way lower is KB Home (KBH -3.4%) which reported an earnings beat this morning, but rising land costs did eat into profit margins.
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Toll Brothers (TOL -0.4%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.8%), Lennar (LEN -0.9%), D.R. Horton (DHI -0.8%), Standard Pacific (SPF -1.6%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC -1.5%).
Thu, Sep. 17, 3:49 PM
- Outperforming alongside the big dividend payers are the homebuilders after the FOMC refrained from hiking rates today, but still all but promises tighter policy before the year is out. The big gains in homebuilders are in contrast to the S&P 500 which is flat.
- The inaction has sparked a major rally in bonds across the curve, with the 10-year yield lower by ten basis points to 2.20% and the two-year yield down a full twelve basis points to 0.68%.
- Earlier today, August housing starts disappointed, and July starts were revised sharply lower.
- Previously: August housing starts disappoint; July revised sharply lower (Sept. 17)
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.2%), Lennar (LEN +1.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +6%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.1%), Ryland (RYL +2.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2%), KB Home (KBH +2%)
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
Tue, Sep. 15, 1:28 PM
- Despite worries about a wash of apartment construction over the past five years, a high occupancy rate has builders Lennar (NYSE:LEN) and Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) doubling down in the market.
- Toll plans to literally double its apartment-development division and expand its from the northeast corridor across the country. In Lennar's case, it's built a $1.1B war chest for construction in 25 markets and wants to expand it to $2B within a year.
- The long-term annual average in apartment building is 120,000/year; meanwhile, developers in 79 markets built 173K units last year, and are expected to build 220K this year and 190K next year.
- Vacancy rates, though, have been at 15-year lows (about 4.2%) while rents have steadily risen to 15-year highs ($1,194/month in 79 markets). And the percentage of people "doubled up" (living with a non-spouse adult) rose to 48% this year from 44% in 2007, suggesting many will seek their own rental.
- Lennar and Toll reps say they're being conservative, and the market isn't peaking yet.
Fri, Sep. 11, 8:04 AM
- As a group, the three are higher on the year, but are considerably lower since April 1, with Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH) off 22%, Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) 6%, and PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) 7.8%.
- All three are upgraded to Neutral from Underweight.
- Alongside these moves, JPMorgan also downgraded two other homebuilders.
Tue, Aug. 25, 8:37 AM
- Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is 2.4% lower premarket after posting a miss on its FQ3 revenues and profits.
- Net income slipped nearly 32%, to $66.7M. While revenues fell 3%, net signed contracts were up 30% in dollar terms, to $1.23B, and up 12% in terms of units, to 1,479.
- Backlog of $3.69B (up 19%) and 4,447 units (up 6%), the highest backlog for any quarter's end in eight years. Average price of homes in backlog was $829K, over $800K for the first time.
- Gross margin of 19.8% was down from a year-ago 22.7%.
- The company guided to fiscal Q4 deliveries of 1,645-1,945 at average price of $780K-$800K, which narrows its guidance on full-year deliveries to 5,350-5,650 homes at average price of $745K-$760K.
- The company will discuss the results and its full-year outlook on a conference call to come at 11 a.m. ET.
- Press Release
Tue, Aug. 25, 5:13 AM
Mon, Aug. 24, 5:30 PM
Mon, Aug. 17, 4:33 PM
- Major stock indexes rebounded from opening declines to finish modestly higher, after a solid housing report showed some strength on a lightly traded Monday.
- Homebuilding stocks paced gainers, including Toll Brothers (TOL +2.3%); Ryland (RYL +2.1%); KB Home (KBH +3.1%), Lennar (LEN +2.7%) and Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC +2.9%).
- The S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 2,102.44; for 2015, it's up 2.12%. The move up came despite a grim reading from New York manufacturing that sent bond yields lower. TLT +0.5%; TBT -0.8%.
- Volumes overall were about 20% below recent average.
- Sector gains were broadly distributed, with a flat energy sector as the laggard. Healthcare stocks performed well, paced by dollar volume leaders Gilead Sciences (GILD +0.7%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +1.1%) and Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) +1.1%.
Wed, Jul. 22, 10:36 AM
- In the latest data point signaling the housing recovery has shifted into another gear, the NAR earlier reported a 3.2% gain in the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of existing home sales to 5.49M in June.
- Sales are at their highest pace since February 2007 and are 9.6% above the pace of one year ago.
- The median price of $236.4K is up 6.5% Y/Y and surpasses the peak set in July 2006.
- ETFs: ITB +1.5%, XHB +1.5%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +2%), Lennar (LEN +1.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.9%), Pulte (PHM +2.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Hovnanian (HOV +0.9%), Ryland (RYL +3.1%)
- Previously: Existing home sales rise to fastest pace in eight years (July 22)
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