Toll Brothers Inc.
 (TOL)

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  • Wed, Feb. 10, 3:02 PM
    • It's notoriously difficult to read anything into the weekly mortgage applications report from the MBA, as a weather event or timing of a holiday can throw things off.
    • Instead checking the year-over-year figures over a period of several weeks, Seeking Alpha contributor Markos Kaminis finds purchase applications averaging 20% growth so far in 2016, including a 25% Y/Y gain for the latest reported period.
    • A check of the price charts of a number of housing-related stocks - homebuilders, title companies, mortgage insurers - paints a far more depressing picture of real estate, and suggests investors may have a buying opportunity at hand.
    • Notable tickers: XHB, ITB, PHM, TOL, MTG, RDN, ITIC, FAF, FNF
    | Wed, Feb. 10, 3:02 PM | 6 Comments
  • Mon, Jan. 25, 11:50 AM
    • "Texas is in good shape," says D.R. Horton (DHI -3.5%) CEO David Auld, speaking on the earnings call (reported by Diana Olick). "We have a positive tone because we're seeing positive things out there in the market." Auld also takes note of DHI's cheaper "Express" brand, which he says is driving market share gains.
    • The stock is lower despite an earnings beat, with investors perhaps focusing on slowing price gains (sales orders up 9%, dollar amount up 12%).
    • Other names: Hovnanian (HOV -4.6%), Toll Brothers (TOL -3.4%), Lennar (LEN -3.4%), PulteGroup (PHM -3.1%), KB Home (KBH -3.8%).
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB
    | Mon, Jan. 25, 11:50 AM | 4 Comments
  • Mon, Jan. 25, 7:34 AM
    • It's been a rough run for the homebuilders in general, and Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is lower by about 33% since hitting a 2015 high of just over $42 last August.
    • Now a $28 stock, Toll is upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James, with $40 price target.
    | Mon, Jan. 25, 7:34 AM
  • Tue, Jan. 12, 11:40 AM
    • The XHB's (and ITB's) roughly 10% decline during the year's first week is overdone, says Goldman, especially considering there's been little change in housing fundamentals. Plus, the risks many are worried about - the crashing oil price and China slowdown - if anything, could be a net positive for U.S. housing.
    • Alas, after strong opens, the housing names are once again in the red:
    • Lennar (LEN -1.4%), Hovnanian (HOV -3.2%), KB Home (KBH -3.9%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1.9%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.6%), DR. Horton (DHI -0.6%)
    | Tue, Jan. 12, 11:40 AM | 12 Comments
  • Dec. 16, 2015, 9:50 AM
    • The seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of housing starts in November of 1.173M was up 10.5% from October and 16.5% from a year ago. Single-family starts of 768K gained 7.6% from October.
    • Building permits of 1.289M gained 11% M/M and 19.5% Y/Y. SIngle-family permits of 723K gained just 1.1% from last month.
    • The South was a particular area of strength, with housing starts in that region of 615K up from 507K in October. SIngle-family starts there of 409K gained from 376K.
    • The major average are up modestly, but the ITB is ahead 1.5%, and XHB +1.25%.
    • Individual names: Toll Brothers (TOL +1.8%), Lennar (LEN +1.7%), Pulte (PHM +1.5%), KB Home (KBH +0.9%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.8%)
    | Dec. 16, 2015, 9:50 AM | 7 Comments
  • Dec. 10, 2015, 9:51 AM
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +1.1%) earlier this week took a sharp tumble after missing FQ4 earnings expectations. The fall completed (or didn't) a roughly-20% move down in the stock since late summer.
    • RBC Capital upgrades to Sector Perform from Underperform. The price target is raised $2 to $37. The current price is $34.20.
    • Previously: Toll Brothers misses by $0.03, beats on revenue (Dec. 8)
    | Dec. 10, 2015, 9:51 AM | 1 Comment
  • Dec. 8, 2015, 7:25 AM
    • FQ4 net income of $147.2M or $0.80 per share vs. $131.5M and $0.71 one year earlier.
    • Home building deliveries of 1,820 units for $1.44B up 1% in units and 6% in dollars.
    • Net signed contracts of 1,437 units for $1.25B up 12% in units and 29% in dollars. ASP of net signed contracts of $872K up from $757K a year ago.
    • In the first five weeks of FQ1 of 2016, net signed contracts up 21% in units.
    • Backlog of $3.5B and 4,064 units up 29% in dollars and 10% in units.
    • Gross margin excluding interest and impairments of 26%, up 80 basis points from a year ago.
    • FY16 revenue is expected at $4.5B-$5.6B based on deliveries of 5.6K-6.6K homes at an ASP of $800K-$850K.
    • During FY15, 1.67M shares repurchased at an average price of $34.17.
    • Conference call at 11 ET
    • Previously: Toll Brothers misses by $0.03, beats on revenue (Dec. 8)
    • TOL flat premarket
    | Dec. 8, 2015, 7:25 AM | 1 Comment
  • Dec. 8, 2015, 5:36 AM
    • Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL): FQ4 EPS of $0.80 misses by $0.03.
    • Revenue of $1.44B (+6.7% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
    • Press Release
    | Dec. 8, 2015, 5:36 AM
  • Dec. 7, 2015, 5:30 PM
  • Nov. 13, 2015, 10:33 AM
    • Down 9% over the last three months, Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) offers an attractive entry point, says JPMorgan's Michael Rehau, upgrading to Overweight from Neutral, while boosting the price target to $45 from $41.50.
    • Toll is up just 4% YTD and 10% since the start of 2013, he notes, versus large-cap homebuilder peers up 11% and 40% on average, respectively. At current prices, Toll is roughly-in line with peers as compared to an historical 10% premium.
    • This, says Rehau, as he expects the company to deliver above-average fundamental performance in FY16.
    • Toll was up at the open on the upgrade, but is now down 0.15% to $35.50.
    | Nov. 13, 2015, 10:33 AM
  • Nov. 10, 2015, 12:15 PM
    • D.R. Horton is up 6.8% after cruising through FQ4 estimates, with orders, backlogs, and closings all up smartly, but prices up only modestly. Pre-tax margin gained 60 basis points to 10.7%, and the company boosted its quarterly dividend by two pennies to $0.08 per share (1% yield).
    • Bears might note the beat was helped along by a $17.5M benefit from the company's DTA, but the bulls control the tape today.
    • With the major averages in the red, the homebuilder ETF is up sharply, ITB +1.4%. More focused on industry suppliers, the XHB is up 0.4%.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +1.7%), PulteGroup (PHM +2.4%), Lennar (LEN +1.5%), Ryland (RYL), KB Home (KBH +2.3%), Hovnanian (HOV -0.8%).
    • Previously: More on D.R. Horton's FQ4 beat (Nov. 10)
    • Previously: D. R. Horton beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (Nov. 10)
    | Nov. 10, 2015, 12:15 PM | 1 Comment
  • Nov. 9, 2015, 7:38 AM
    • FQ4 total revenues of $1.44B and 1,820 units up 6% in dollars and 1% in units year-over-year. ASP of $790K vs. $747K.
    • Net signed contracts of $1.25B and 1,437 units up 29% in dollars and 12% in units. ASP of $872K vs. $757K.
    • Backlog of $3.5B and 4,064 units up 29% in dollars and 10% in units. ASP of $862K vs. $739K.
    • The company put out the numbers ahead of its presentation at a UBS conference on Wednesday. The full report comes on Dec. 8.
    • TOL flat premarket
    | Nov. 9, 2015, 7:38 AM
  • Oct. 27, 2015, 6:54 PM
    • Toll Brothers (TOL -2.5%) has priced an offering of $350M in senior notes.
    • The 4.875% senior notes are due November 2025, with settlement to come Oct. 30.
    • Proceeds will go to general purposes, which might include acquisition of land and development of new projects as well as debt repayment.
    • In its most recent quarter, Toll Brothers reported $404.8M in cash against total debt of $3.32B (debt/equity of 80.5).
    • Shares were flat in after-hours action.
    | Oct. 27, 2015, 6:54 PM | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 26, 2015, 10:11 AM
    • The pace of new home sales tumbled to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 468K in September. That's down 11.5% from August's 529K (revised down from 552K), and just 2% above the level of a year ago. Analysts had expected a 550K pace in September.
    • The Northeast suffered an unusually large decline, with sales dropping to 13K from 34K ... must have been the weather. Sales in the Midwest fell to 55K from 60K; South to 274K from 300K; West to 126K from 135K.
    • Maybe a bigger issue are prices: The median price of 296.9K was 13.5% higher than a year ago.
    • The homebuilders aren't liking the news: Toll Brothers (TOL -2%), Lennar (LEN -1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.8%), KB Home (KBH -2.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI -2.5%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.4%)
    • ITB -1.6%, XHB -0.7%
    • Full report
    • Previously: New Home Sales hits 10-month low at 468K (Oct. 26)
    | Oct. 26, 2015, 10:11 AM | 14 Comments
  • Oct. 22, 2015, 12:03 PM
    • The major averages are up 1.5%, and a strong existing home sales number this morning added to a beat in housing starts earlier this week, but the homebuilders are retreating.
    • At work are weaker-than-hoped reports from PulteGroup (PHM -6.4%) and M/I Homes (MHO -5.7%).
    • Pulte reported a decline in closings, with ASPs up just a hair vs. the 8% gain in sales prices a year ago. Home sales in Texas slumped 15%, and while net new orders for the company overall rose 8%, they fell 5% in that state.
    • KB Home (KBH -4.3%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1%), Lennar (LEN -0.6%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.2%)
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB
    • Previously: Sale price gains slow down at Pulte (Oct. 22)
    • Previously: M/I Homes misses by $0.04, misses on revenue (Oct. 22)
    | Oct. 22, 2015, 12:03 PM | 3 Comments
  • Oct. 13, 2015, 9:51 AM
    • Upgraded to Overweight is Toll Brothers (TOL -0.1%), and upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight is KB Home (KBH +0.5%). The TOL price target of $44 is nearly 20% above last night's close.
    • Downgraded to Under Weight is Pulte Group (PHM -2.3%), with the price target cut to $18 from $22 (current price is $19.64).
    • Checking relative performance, Toll Brothers is up 8.4% YTD, while Pulte is down 8.4% and KBHome is down 10.2%.
    | Oct. 13, 2015, 9:51 AM | 3 Comments
Company Description
Toll Brothers Inc designs, builds, markets and arranges financing for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities.