TOL
Toll Brothers Inc.NYSE
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  • Sat, Dec. 3, 9:03 AM
    • Rather than chase surging stocks at fancy valuations, the team at Barron's looked for laggards when making its picks, writes Andrew Bary.
    • The names, nevertheless, aren't exactly unfamiliar ones: Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY), Merck (NYSE:MRK), Novartis (NYSE:NVS), Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), Unilever (NYSE:UL), Disney (NYSE:DIS).
    • Eight of these ten are trailing the S&P 500 this year, including the three European stocks (Deutsche Telekom, Novartis, and Unilever), and all of the names except Google sell for less than 20x 2017 estimates.
    • At just 10x earnings, Toll Brothers, Citi, and Delta are better ways to play an improving economy than Caterpillar at nearly 30x.
    • As for the "pricey" Google, it's an example of the Buffett maxim that he'd rather buy a wonderful business at a fair price rather than a fair business at a wonderful price.
    • Barron's top picks for 2016 as a group are trailing the S&P 500 by more than 600 basis points.
    | Sat, Dec. 3, 9:03 AM | 67 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 30, 12:11 PM
    • Those getting mortgages prior to last few weeks were "likely the last" to lock in at historically low rates, says the NAR's Larry Yun following this morning's disappointing Pending Home Sales report.
    • That report was for October, but in more current news, mortgage applications dove another 9.4% in the week ended Nov. 25 (seasonally adjusted). They've been on a downward track for a few weeks, with the speed mostly picking up amid the sharp rise in rates since the election.
    • Turning to rates, the 10-year Treasury yield is carving out a new 12-month-plus high, up 11 basis points to 2.40%.
    • The S&P 500 is flat, but the ITB is down 1.8%, and XHB 1.2%.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL -2.1%), Lennar (LEN -3.4%), Pulte (PHM -1.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI -3.8%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC -2.1%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC -1.5%)
    | Wed, Nov. 30, 12:11 PM | 13 Comments
  • Thu, Nov. 17, 11:43 AM
    • This morning's housing starts for October was off the charts - rising 25.5% from September to the fastest pace in nine years. Stripping out the notoriously volatile multifamily starts still leaves single family starts up 10.2% from September.
    • Of course, interest rates continue to rise - with the 10-year Treasury yield up another three basis points to 2.26% - but the builders can worry about that another time.
    • The S&P 500 is ahead 0.35%, with the homebuilders are outperforming by a mile.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +2.9%), LGI Homes (LGIH +6.2%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC +3.5%), KB Home (KBH +2.4%), Lennar (LEN +2.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.4%), Pulte (PHM +2.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI +3.2%), NVR (NVR +1.8%)
    | Thu, Nov. 17, 11:43 AM | 2 Comments
  • Mon, Nov. 7, 8:22 AM
    • In business since 1972 and in Boise since 2004, and with a relationship with Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) dating back almost 20 years, Coleman Homes operates primarily in Ada and Canyon Counties. It builds homes ranging from those for first-time buyers to luxury, and priced from $175K-$500K.
    • As of the purchase (all cash, price not disclosed), Coleman had 135 homes in backlog with an ASP of $302K. In addition to that backlog, Toll Brothers also acquired about 1.4K lots owned and 350 lots controlled in Ada and Canyon Counties.
    | Mon, Nov. 7, 8:22 AM
  • Tue, Nov. 1, 9:59 AM
    • Discussions about homebuilding M&A have been picking up of late, says analyst Will Randow, and he expects the next deal will likely be one public company acquiring another, rather than a smaller private player.
    • "Aside from the normal benefits of M&A, we believe larger public builders may be more inclined to acquire the young (i.e. smaller public) given the slower paced recovery environment that exhibits lower pricing power," says Randow, who picks D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) as best-positioned to be a buyer.
    • Other possible acquirers include: KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Meritage (NYSE:MTH), PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM), Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), and TRI Pointe (NYSE:TPH).
    • Potential targets: Century Communities (NYSE:CCS), Green Brick Partners (NASDAQ:GRBK), M.D.C. Homes (NYSE:MDC), Meritage (also on the buyer list), New Home (NYSE:NWHM), Taylor Morrison (NYSE:TMHC), UCP, William Lyon (NYSE:WLH).
    • Randow's top accretive scenario ... TRI Pointe buying William Lyon.
    | Tue, Nov. 1, 9:59 AM | 2 Comments
  • Tue, Sep. 20, 12:25 PM
    • Lennar (NYSE:LEN) was initially higher following this morning's earnings beat, but has turned lower by 4.3% amid cautious earnings call comments on margins.
    • Also at work is today's housing starts report which showed an unexpected sharp decline from July to August, with single-family starts dropping to a 10-month low.
    • ITB -1.4%, XHB -0.9%
    • Hovnanian (HOV -0.9%), KB Home (KBH -1.4%), Pulte (PHM -3.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.2%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1.4%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC -2.5%), LGI Homes (LGIH -1.3%)
    | Tue, Sep. 20, 12:25 PM | 9 Comments
  • Mon, Sep. 19, 12:01 PM
    • The NAHB Index jumped six points to a one-year high of 65 this month vs. expectations for just a marginal gain.
    • "With the inventory of new and existing homes remaining tight, builders are confident that if they can build more homes they can sell them," says NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
    • The Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar calls this month's print "ebullient," but says the key to sustain things will be the behavior of the first-time homebuyer. We're at a 50-year low in the homeownership rate - will potential first-timers continue to prefer renting? The area most in need of new homes are those priced below $250K (to better compete against renting), but margin issues don't make this a terribly profitable segment for homebuilders.
    • ITB +1.9%, XHB +1.5%
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +1.4%), PulteGroup (PHM +3.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.5%), Lennar (LEN +2.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.4%)
    | Mon, Sep. 19, 12:01 PM | 3 Comments
  • Tue, Aug. 23, 10:13 AM
    • New home sales flew past expectations in July as they rose 31% on a year-over-year comparison. Sales were higher across all regions of the U.S.
    • The median price of a house sold during the month was $294,600. Inventory fell to 4.3 months at the current sales pace.
    • June's mark was revised down to 582K from 592K.
    • The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSEARCA:ITB) is up 1.3% after the development. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA:XHB) is 1.2% higher.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +2.3%) and KB Home (KBH +2.9%) are notable movers in early trading.
    | Tue, Aug. 23, 10:13 AM
  • Tue, Aug. 23, 8:24 AM
    • Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) -0.4% premarket after posting in-line FQ3 earnings on a 23% Y/Y rise in revenues to $1.27B, as results suggest steady growth in the U.S. housing market.
    • TOL says FQ3 net signed contracts of $1.45B and 1,748 units both represented 18% Y/Y gains, but the average price of net signed contracts was $831K vs. $834K in the year-ago quarter.
    • Backlog at the end of FQ3 of $4.37B and 5,181 units rose 19% and 17%, respectively, while the average price of homes in the backlog was $844K vs. $829K at the end of the year-ago quarter.
    • TOL issues in-line revenue guidance for FY 2016, forecasting $4.96B-$5.27B vs. $5.04B analyst consensus estimate and prior guidance of $4.76B-$5.36B.
    • Expects FQ4 deliveries of 2,025-2,325 units with an average price of $815K-$835K, resulting in projected full-year deliveries of 5,900-6,200 units with an average delivered price of $840K-$850K.
    • Due primarily to a shift in its mix of deliveries, TOL now expects its full-year gross margin of 25.6%-25.8% of revenues, 30 bps below the mid-point of previous guidance.
    | Tue, Aug. 23, 8:24 AM | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Aug. 23, 5:28 AM
    • Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL): FQ3 EPS of $0.61 in-line.
    • Revenue of $1.27B (+23.3% Y/Y) beats by $20M.
    • Press Release
    | Tue, Aug. 23, 5:28 AM
  • Mon, Aug. 22, 5:30 PM
    | Mon, Aug. 22, 5:30 PM | 2 Comments
  • Tue, Jul. 26, 10:16 AM
    • June new home sales came in at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 592K, up from May's rate of 572K, and the fastest pace since February 2008.
    • Expectations had been for 560K.
    • The median price of $306.7K was up 6% Y/Y, and inventory fell to 4.9 months at the current sales pace.
    • New home sales in Q2 were up 10% from Q1.
    • The ITB popped higher on the news, but has retreated a bit since, now up 0.2% on the session. XHB +0.4%
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +0.2%), Hovnanian (HOV +0.8%), Lennar (LEN -0.7%), KB Home (KBH +0.1%), PulteGroup (PHM +0.1%)
    | Tue, Jul. 26, 10:16 AM | 3 Comments
  • Mon, Jul. 18, 10:08 AM
    • The team upgrades Toll Brothers (TOL +0.1%) to Buy from Neutral, while cutting KB Home (KBH -1.5%) to Neutral from Buy.
    • It could be a valuation call, as the two homebuilders have been headed in opposite directions, with TOL in the red for 2016, and KBH higher by 60%.
    • Meanwhile the NAHB reported the tiniest of slides in its builder confidence index, which slipped to 59 from 60.
    | Mon, Jul. 18, 10:08 AM | 4 Comments
  • Fri, Jun. 17, 10:30 AM
    • May housing starts at a seasonally-adjusted annualized pace of 1.164M edged lower from April, but were up 9.5% from a year ago (and vs. expected 1.15M). Single-family starts of 764K were slightly higher than April.
    • The major averages are modestly lower on the session, but the homebuilders (ITB +1%) are posting strong gains, led by Toll Brothers (TOL +1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.8%), Lennar (LEN +1.2%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.4%), Beazer (BZH +4.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.2%).
    | Fri, Jun. 17, 10:30 AM
  • Tue, Jun. 7, 2:31 PM
    • The major averages are up modestly, but the homebuilders (ITB +2.2%) are posting sharp gains, helped by a report Elliot Management has taken a stake in PulteGroup. Pulte is leading the way with a 4.6% advance.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.9%), KB Home (KBH +3%), Lennar (LEN +3.1%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC +3.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.7%)
    | Tue, Jun. 7, 2:31 PM | 1 Comment
  • Tue, May 24, 10:09 AM
    • April new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 619K were a full 16.6% above the upwardly revised March print, and 23.8% higher than year-ago levels. The number also flew past expectations for just a 2% rise to 523K.
    • Sales in the Northeast of 55K gained from 36K in March; Midwest of 60K down from 63K; South of 352K vs. 304K; West of 152K vs. 128K.
    • Full report
    • Tossing this bit of information in with strong FQ2 earnings from Toll Brothers (TOL +6.4%) has the homeowners (ITB +2.7%) surging well ahead of the market averages.
    • Hovnanian (HOV +4.9%), KB Home (KBH +3.8%), Beazer (BZH +5.4%), Lennar (LEN +3.2%), Pulte (PHM +3.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +3.3%)
    | Tue, May 24, 10:09 AM | 39 Comments