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Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)

  • Fri, Jul. 17, 9:57 AM
    • A combination of sluggish job growth and abundant supply has made Washington, D.C. one of the worst U.S. markets for landlords, but rebounding employment is leading to renewed development.
    • Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) plans to more than double its stock of apartments over the new three years, Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT) has 862 units under construction, and AvalonBay (NYSE:AVB) is boosting its investment in what may be a coming hot neighborhood. The nation's largest apartment REIT, Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR) is set to start work on a 174-unit building in Georgetown stalled since 2012. Still a bit wary, UDR is buying rather than building - last month it agreed to acquire six suburban communities from Home Properties.
    • Effective rents fell 1.4% in 2013, and rose just 0.4% last year - enough to scare off smaller players. REITs however, have access to relatively cheap capital, giving them the opportunity to step in while the market is soft to hopefully take advantage of the next upturn.
    • According to Axiometrics, effective rents will climb 3.4% in 2016 versus 2.9% for the entire country. 2107 should see a 4.5% increase, with 3.6% estimated for 2018.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • Previously: Multi-family action leads gain in housing starts (July 17)
    | Fri, Jul. 17, 9:57 AM | 2 Comments
  • Wed, Jun. 24, 9:47 AM
    | Wed, Jun. 24, 9:47 AM | 3 Comments
  • Fri, Jun. 19, 10:09 AM
    • KB Home CEO Jeffrey Mezger is confident of his company's ability to achieve "measurable year-over-year earnings growth in H2" after reporting new order growth of 33% in units and 38% in dollars in FQ2, and backlog growth of 39% in units and 57% in dollars.
    • KB Home is up 6%, leading the ITB +1.4%, and XHB +0.8% even as the major averages slip.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +2.3%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.7%), Lennar (LEN +3%), Ryland (RYL +2%), D.R. Horton (DRI +2.5%), Pulte (PHM +2.5%)
    • Previously: KB Home gains following earnings beat (June 19)
    • Previously: KB Home beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (June 19)
    | Fri, Jun. 19, 10:09 AM | Comment!
  • Mon, Jun. 15, 9:44 AM
    • Zigging higher while the rest of the market zags sharply lower are the homebuilders following this weekend's merger of Ryland Homes and Standard Pacific.
    • While there have been a number of smaller deals over the past year, this one is more sizable, setting off hope of a broader - and necessary, according to some - consolidation in the fragmented sector.
    • Lennar (LEN +1.9%), Toll Brothers (TOL +1.4%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC +2.3%), M/I Homes (MHO -0.5%), NVR (NVR), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.5%), KB Home (KBH +0.7%), Beazer Homes (BZH +1.2%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV flat)
    • Previously: Industry eyes Ryland/Standard Pacific merger (June 15)
    | Mon, Jun. 15, 9:44 AM | 4 Comments
  • Thu, Jun. 11, 7:42 AM
    • Credit Suisse buys the dip in Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), upgrading to Outperform as it cites the Street is underestimating the boost to business in 2016 from Toll's City Living operation.
    | Thu, Jun. 11, 7:42 AM | Comment!
  • Tue, Jun. 9, 10:14 AM
    • The usually sunny Ara Hovnanian found himself unable to put lipstick on his company's pig of a quarter and the stock is lower by 14.4% in early action (the conference call begins at 11 ET).
    • Topping off the poor results, interest rates are back on the rise, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting a new high for the year at 2.44%.
    • The other homebuilders are acting as if HOV's issues are company-specific: Toll Brothers (TOL -0.2%), Lennar (LEN -0.2%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI -0.2%), KB Home (KBH -0.8%), Ryland (RYL -0.6%), Standard Pacific (SPF flat).
    • ETFs: ITB -0.2%, XHB -0.3%
    | Tue, Jun. 9, 10:14 AM | 3 Comments
  • Wed, May 27, 10:43 AM
    | Wed, May 27, 10:43 AM | 1 Comment
  • Wed, May 27, 7:21 AM
    • FQ2 net income of $67.9M or $0.37 per share vs. $65.2M and $0.35 one year ago.
    • Home building deliveries of 1,195 units and $852.6M down 2% in units and 1% in dollars Y/Y. ASP of $713K vs. $706K.
    • Net signed contracts of 1,931 units and $1.6B up 10% in units, 25% in dollars. ASP of $826K vs. $729K.
    • Backlog of 4,387 units and $3.48B up 1% in units, 9% in dollars. ASP of $794K vs. $742K.
    • Gross margin of 25.3% up 170 basis points from a year ago.
    • Looking into FQ3, company says net contracts in the first four weeks were flat Y/Y thanks to a slow first week followed by robust improvements over the subsequent three weeks.
    • Fiscal 2015 guidance is narrowed to deliveries of 5.3K-5.9K homes with ASP of $730K-$760K. Gross margin should be about 26%, with improvement coming in 2016.
    • Earnings call at 11 ET
    • Previously: Toll Brothers beats by $0.02, misses on revenue (May 27)
    • TOL +0.4% premarket
    | Wed, May 27, 7:21 AM | Comment!
  • Wed, May 27, 5:56 AM
    • Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL): FQ2 EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.02.
    • Revenue of $852.58M (-0.9% Y/Y) misses by $8.57M.
    • Press Release
    | Wed, May 27, 5:56 AM | Comment!
  • Tue, May 26, 5:30 PM
  • Mon, May 18, 11:14 AM
    | Mon, May 18, 11:14 AM | Comment!
  • Fri, May 15, 12:18 PM
    • The summer pattern for the builders is typically the opposite of the winter "hope trade," says Raymond James, noting the sector has underperformed the S&P 500 in 21 of the last 30 summers, with the average underperformance being 490 basis points.
    • Not downgraded is WCI Communities (WCIC +1%), which remains a Strong Buy. "We see a special situation with one of the strongest growth stories in the industry, backed by a deep and highly valuable Florida land base, producing better-than-expected margins while trading at a deep discount (20%+ on most metrics) to its larger cap peers."
    • Also not downgraded is D.R. Horton (DHI +0.4%) thanks to its exposure to first-time homebuyers.
    • Downgraded, but still an Outperform is Toll Brothers (TOL +1.6%), thanks to the "unsurpassed quality" of its "remarkable land assets."
    • Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform: KB Home (KBH +1.8%), Lennar (LEN +0.1%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC), PulteGroup (PHM +1.3%), Standard Pacific (SPF +0.5%), and Ryland (RYL +0.5%).
    • Previously: Homebuilders downgraded across the board at Raymond James (May 15)
    | Fri, May 15, 12:18 PM | 4 Comments
  • Fri, May 15, 9:07 AM
    • Possibly spooked by the rout in the bond market and what higher interest rates could mean for homebuilders, Raymond James pulls Outperform ratings and cuts price targets on a wide swath of the sector.
    • Ryland Group (NYSE:RYL), Standard Pacific (NYSE:SPG), Pulte Group (NYSE:PHM), M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), and KB Home (NYSE:KBH) are all cut to Market Perform, while Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is cut to Outperform from Strong Buy. It's unclear if D.R. Horton was similarly downgraded, but its price target is cut to $29 from $31.
    • It's been a rough month for the lot of them, with all (excepting M.D.C.) lower by anywhere from 7%-14% as long-term interest rates have shot higher.
    • PHM is down 1.2% premarket
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB
    | Fri, May 15, 9:07 AM | 6 Comments
  • Thu, Apr. 23, 10:17 AM
    • PulteGroup earlier reported disappointing results which included slimming margins and muted price gains. The stock is lower by 8% in morning action.
    • Minutes ago, HUD reported a far larger-than-expected slowdown in new home sales in March - with the South leading the retreat (gotta be the weather?).
    • Toll Brothers (TOL -2.3%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.2%), Lennar (LEN -2.1%), Ryland (RYL -3%), D.R. Horton (DHI -3.4%), KB Home (KBH -3.5%), Beazer Homes (BZH -3%), Standard Pacific (SPF -2.8%).
    • Previously: PulteGroup -7.8% as Q1 results disappoint (April 23)
    • Previously: South leads big decline in new home sales (April 23)
    | Thu, Apr. 23, 10:17 AM | 5 Comments
  • Wed, Apr. 22, 10:52 AM
    | Wed, Apr. 22, 10:52 AM | 2 Comments
  • Tue, Apr. 21, 3:54 PM
    • The REITs are down about 8% from their January highs while the homebuilders have posted gains, bringing the ratio of homebuilders to REITs to long-term resistance, says MKM Partners' Jonathan Krinsky, who suggests fading the move.
    • Most vulnerable to tactical pullbacks are those homebuilders/suppliers showing the weakest relative strength: Beazer Homes (NYSE:BZH), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE:LPX), Taylor Morrisn (NYSE:TMHC), Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), and TRI Pointe Homes (NYSE:TPH).
    • The best long REIT ideas are those showing the best relative strength: AvalonBay (NYSE:AVB), Crown Castle (NYSE:CCI), Essex Property (NYSE:ESS), Extra Space Storage (NYSE:EXR), Federal Realty (NYSE:FRT), General Growth (NYSE:GGP), SL Green (NYSE:SLG), and UDR.
    • Those REITs showing poor relative strength or to be avoided or sold: American Tower (NYSE:AMT), American Realty Capital (NASDAQ:ARCP), Brixmor (NYSE:BRX), Host Hotels (NYSE:HST), and Omega Healthcare (NYSE:OHI).
    • Source: Barron's
    | Tue, Apr. 21, 3:54 PM | 12 Comments
Company Description
Toll Brothers Inc designs, builds, markets and arranges financing for single-family detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities.