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May 27, 2015, 7:21 AM
- FQ2 net income of $67.9M or $0.37 per share vs. $65.2M and $0.35 one year ago.
- Home building deliveries of 1,195 units and $852.6M down 2% in units and 1% in dollars Y/Y. ASP of $713K vs. $706K.
- Net signed contracts of 1,931 units and $1.6B up 10% in units, 25% in dollars. ASP of $826K vs. $729K.
- Backlog of 4,387 units and $3.48B up 1% in units, 9% in dollars. ASP of $794K vs. $742K.
- Gross margin of 25.3% up 170 basis points from a year ago.
- Looking into FQ3, company says net contracts in the first four weeks were flat Y/Y thanks to a slow first week followed by robust improvements over the subsequent three weeks.
- Fiscal 2015 guidance is narrowed to deliveries of 5.3K-5.9K homes with ASP of $730K-$760K. Gross margin should be about 26%, with improvement coming in 2016.
- Earnings call at 11 ET
- Previously: Toll Brothers beats by $0.02, misses on revenue (May 27)
- TOL +0.4% premarket
May 27, 2015, 5:56 AM
- Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL): FQ2 EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.02.
- Revenue of $852.58M (-0.9% Y/Y) misses by $8.57M.
May 26, 2015, 5:30 PM
May 18, 2015, 11:14 AM| May 18, 2015, 11:14 AM
May 15, 2015, 12:18 PM
- The summer pattern for the builders is typically the opposite of the winter "hope trade," says Raymond James, noting the sector has underperformed the S&P 500 in 21 of the last 30 summers, with the average underperformance being 490 basis points.
- Not downgraded is WCI Communities (WCIC +1%), which remains a Strong Buy. "We see a special situation with one of the strongest growth stories in the industry, backed by a deep and highly valuable Florida land base, producing better-than-expected margins while trading at a deep discount (20%+ on most metrics) to its larger cap peers."
- Also not downgraded is D.R. Horton (DHI +0.4%) thanks to its exposure to first-time homebuyers.
- Downgraded, but still an Outperform is Toll Brothers (TOL +1.6%), thanks to the "unsurpassed quality" of its "remarkable land assets."
- Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform: KB Home (KBH +1.8%), Lennar (LEN +0.1%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC), PulteGroup (PHM +1.3%), Standard Pacific (SPF +0.5%), and Ryland (RYL +0.5%).
- Previously: Homebuilders downgraded across the board at Raymond James (May 15)
May 15, 2015, 9:07 AM
- Possibly spooked by the rout in the bond market and what higher interest rates could mean for homebuilders, Raymond James pulls Outperform ratings and cuts price targets on a wide swath of the sector.
- Ryland Group (NYSE:RYL), Standard Pacific (NYSE:SPG), Pulte Group (NYSE:PHM), M.D.C. Holdings (NYSE:MDC), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), and KB Home (NYSE:KBH) are all cut to Market Perform, while Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is cut to Outperform from Strong Buy. It's unclear if D.R. Horton was similarly downgraded, but its price target is cut to $29 from $31.
- It's been a rough month for the lot of them, with all (excepting M.D.C.) lower by anywhere from 7%-14% as long-term interest rates have shot higher.
- PHM is down 1.2% premarket
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
Apr. 23, 2015, 10:17 AM
- PulteGroup earlier reported disappointing results which included slimming margins and muted price gains. The stock is lower by 8% in morning action.
- Minutes ago, HUD reported a far larger-than-expected slowdown in new home sales in March - with the South leading the retreat (gotta be the weather?).
- Toll Brothers (TOL -2.3%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.2%), Lennar (LEN -2.1%), Ryland (RYL -3%), D.R. Horton (DHI -3.4%), KB Home (KBH -3.5%), Beazer Homes (BZH -3%), Standard Pacific (SPF -2.8%).
- Previously: PulteGroup -7.8% as Q1 results disappoint (April 23)
- Previously: South leads big decline in new home sales (April 23)
Apr. 22, 2015, 10:52 AM
- D.R. Horton posted better-than-expected number for FQ2 (ended March 31), and calls the spring season so far a strong one. Management, however, slightly trimmed its guidance on operating margins for FQ3, and the stock is now lower by 4.8% on the session.
- Previously: Investors take profits after D.R. Horton beat (April 22)
- Lennar (LEN -0.8%), Ryland (RYL -0.9%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.8%), KB Home (KBH -0.9%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1.5%), Standard Pacific (SPF -1.2%)
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: Treasury prices retreat after home sales number (April 22)
Apr. 21, 2015, 3:54 PM
- The REITs are down about 8% from their January highs while the homebuilders have posted gains, bringing the ratio of homebuilders to REITs to long-term resistance, says MKM Partners' Jonathan Krinsky, who suggests fading the move.
- Most vulnerable to tactical pullbacks are those homebuilders/suppliers showing the weakest relative strength: Beazer Homes (NYSE:BZH), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE:LPX), Taylor Morrisn (NYSE:TMHC), Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), and TRI Pointe Homes (NYSE:TPH).
- The best long REIT ideas are those showing the best relative strength: AvalonBay (NYSE:AVB), Crown Castle (NYSE:CCI), Essex Property (NYSE:ESS), Extra Space Storage (NYSE:EXR), Federal Realty (NYSE:FRT), General Growth (NYSE:GGP), SL Green (NYSE:SLG), and UDR.
- Those REITs showing poor relative strength or to be avoided or sold: American Tower (NYSE:AMT), American Realty Capital (NASDAQ:ARCP), Brixmor (NYSE:BRX), Host Hotels (NYSE:HST), and Omega Healthcare (NYSE:OHI).
- Source: Barron's
Apr. 16, 2015, 11:06 AM
- Housing starts bounced just 2% to 926K in March following February's supposedly weather-related plunge. Expectations had been for a 1.05M starts in March. Gains in the northeast and midwest in March were offset by declines in the south and west.
- Toll Brothers (TOL -2.4%), Lennar (LEN -2.1%), Hovnanian (HOV -2.8%), PulteGroup (PHM -2%), Ryland (RYL -2.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI -2%), KB Home (KBH -1.9%), Standard Pacific (SPF -2.7%), NVR (NVR -1.3%).
- Previously: Lame rebound for housing starts (April 16)
- Previously: Declines in the south and west hold back housing starts (April 16)
Mar. 24, 2015, 10:08 AM
- New home sales in February at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 539K is the fastest pace in seven years. With January's revision up to 500K (from 481K), it's the fist time sales have hit 500K for two or more consecutive months since early 2008.
- The median sales price rose 2.6% to $275.5K, and inventory stands at 4.7 months of homes on the market at the current sales pace, down from 5.7 months in January.
- Homebuilder ETFs: ITB +1.1%, XHB +1.1%.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.3%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.9%), Pulte (PHM +1.8%), Ryland (RYL +1.5%), Lennar (LEN +1.7%), KB Home (KBH +2.4%), Standard Pacific (SPF +1.4%).
- Full report
- Previously: New home sales fly past expectations in February (March 24)
Mar. 20, 2015, 11:38 AM
- A good week for the homebuilders gets better after KB Home's FQ1 cruised through estimates, and the company said recently contracting profit margins are set to turn the other way for the rest of the year (the stock's up 7%).
- ITB +2.3%, XHB +1.6%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3.2%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.5%), Lennar (LEN +3.6%), Pulte (PHM +2.8%), M/I Homes (MHO +3.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Ryland (RYL +2.4%), Standard Pacific (SPF +2.8%).
- Previously: KB Home on the move after earnings beat, margin comments (March 20)
Feb. 24, 2015, 7:06 AM
- FQ1 (ending Jan. 31) net income of $81.3M or $0.44 per share vs. $45.6M and $0.25 one year earlier.
- Revenue of $853.5M up 33% Y/Y, and deliveries of 1,091 units up 18%. ASP of $782.3K vs $693.6K.
- Net signed contracts of $873.2M and 1,063 units up 24% in dollars, up 16% in units Y/Y. ASP of $821.5K vs. $766.1K.
- Backlo of $2.74B and 3,651 units, up 2% in dollars and flat in units Y/Y.
- Gross margin of 27.3% up 290 basis points Y/Y.
- Fiscal 2015 guidance is lifted: 5.2K-6K home deliveries vs. 5K-6K previously estimated. ASP is bumped to $725K-$760K from $710K-$760K. For fiscal 2014, there were 5,397 deliveries at an ASP of $725K.
- Conference call at 11 ET
- Previously: Toll Brothers beats by $0.14, beats on revenue (Feb. 24)
- TOL +4.3% premarket
Feb. 24, 2015, 5:45 AM
- Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL): FQ1 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.14.
- Revenue of $853.45M (+32.6% Y/Y) beats by $72.59M.
Feb. 23, 2015, 5:30 PM
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Feb. 23, 2015, 10:51 AM
- Existing home sales fell more than forecast in January, sliding to the lowest seasonally-adjusted annualized rate since April.
- Previously: Treasury yields head south following soft home sales report (Feb. 23)
- Compass Point throws in the towel on its Outperform calls on Standard Pacific (SPF -1.2%) and Beazer Homes (BZH -1.4%), downgrading both to Neutral.
- ETFs: ITB -0.7%, XHB -0.15%
- Toll Brothers (TOL -0.5%), Lennar (LEN -1%), Hovnanian (HOV -2.5%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.7%), Ryland (RYL -1.3%), D.R. Hoton (DHI -0.8%).
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