Toll Brothers Is Immune To The Fed And Could Double In 2 Years
Troy Bayer • 11 Comments
Troy Bayer • 11 Comments
Feb. 23, 2015, 10:51 AM
- Existing home sales fell more than forecast in January, sliding to the lowest seasonally-adjusted annualized rate since April.
- Previously: Treasury yields head south following soft home sales report (Feb. 23)
- Compass Point throws in the towel on its Outperform calls on Standard Pacific (SPF -1.2%) and Beazer Homes (BZH -1.4%), downgrading both to Neutral.
- ETFs: ITB -0.7%, XHB -0.15%
- Toll Brothers (TOL -0.5%), Lennar (LEN -1%), Hovnanian (HOV -2.5%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.7%), Ryland (RYL -1.3%), D.R. Hoton (DHI -0.8%).
Feb. 6, 2015, 3:05 PM
- With the 10-year Treasury yield ahead by 12 basis points to 1.94% and short-term interest rate futures moving quickly to price in one more rate hike this year, the homebuilder names are instead choosing to focus on the strongest 3-months of job growth in this country in nearly 20 years.
- Previously: Rate hike expectations to shift after big jobs report? (Feb. 6)
- The ITB is up 1.95% and the XHB - more weighted towards suppliers rather than homebuilders - is up 0.6%.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +0.9%), Lennar (LEN +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.7%), Ryland (RYL +1.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.2%), KB Home (KBH +2.8%).
- Standard Pacific (SPF +5.7%) is the strongest of the bunch after beating Q4 estimates last night. Net new orders of 978 in Q4 rose 11% Y/Y, with the ASP up 10% to $491K.
- Previously: Standard Pacific beats by $0.01, beats on revenue (Feb. 5)
Jan. 29, 2015, 10:18 AM
- Both PulteGroup (PHM +5.3%) and Ryland (RYL +3.8%) beat earnings estimates, with Ryland's gross margins nicely higher, but Pulte's slimming some.
- Pending home sales unexpectedly cooled in December, but Y/Y comps are starting to get easier, and the 11.7% Y/Y gain was the highest since June 2013.
- ETFs: ITB +2.2%, XHB +1.3%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.1%), Lennar (LEN +2.9%), D.R. Horton (DHI +3.6%), KB Home (KBH +4.9%), Beazer Homes (BZH +2.9%).
- Previously: PulteGroup edges higher after earnings beat (Jan. 29)
- Previously: Ryland selling prices and margins rise from last year (Jan. 29)
- Previously: Pending home sales unexpectedly drop (Jan. 29)
Jan. 26, 2015, 10:49 AM
- D.R. Horton (DHI +7.4%) earlier reported FQ1 (ending Dec. 31) results which beat estimates and also said the sales pace has picked up in January.
- On the earnings call, management guides for 2015 gross margins of roughly 20% - earlier this month, both Lennar and KB Home warned on margins in 2015.
- ITB +1.7%, XHB +1.3%
- Lennar (LEN +2.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.7%), Toll Brothers (TOL +1.4%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.2%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.9%), Ryland (RYL +1.5%)
Jan. 15, 2015, 11:31 AM
- The company earlier reported bottom-line results which beat estimates, but the top line slightly missed.
- FQ4 (ending Nov. 30) deliveries of 6,950 homes gained 23% from a year ago. New orders of 5,492 homes up 22%, up 24% in dollar terms. ASP of $329K vs. $307K a year ago. Incentives of 23.1K per home, or 6.6% of home sales revenue vs. $20.6K and 6.3% a year ago.
- Backlogs of 5,832 homes up 21%, up 22% in dollar terms.
- Gross margins of 25.6% fell 120 basis points from a year ago. Operating margin of 16% down 90 bps.
- Like KB Home earlier this week, Lennar (LEN -4%) warns of lower gross margins for fiscal 2015.
- ITB -2.9%, XHB -2.2%
- Toll Brothers (TOL -2.7%), Hovnanian (HOV -5.3%), D.R. Horton (DHI -4.9%), Ryland (RYL -4.7%), KB Home (KBH -5.5%), Pulte (PHM -4.3%) M.D.C. Holdings (MDC -5.9%), NVR (NVR -2.5%), Standard Pacific (SPF -3.2%)
- Previously: Lennar beats by $0.11, misses on revenue (Jan. 15)
Jan. 13, 2015, 11:48 AM
- Up earlier after reporting a strong FQ4, KB Home (KBH -12.2%) goes into the tank as the earnings call begins and management warns on margins.
- Webcast here
- Some homebuilders are red, some are green, but all are well off session highs in sympathy: Hovnanian (HOV -2.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI -2.3%), Toll Brothers (TOL +0.3%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.6%), Ryland (RYL +0.2%)
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: KB Home up 4.4% after strong FQ4 results (Jan. 13)
Jan. 7, 2015, 11:04 AM
- Bloomberg is reporting the president as set to announce a 50 basis point reduction in FHA fees to 0.85% at an event in Phoenix tomorrow. The news isn't good for private mortgage insurers who have been happily raking in market share gains at the expense of the government agency, but the homebuilders are a different story.
- Previously: Mortgage insurers tumble on report of cut in FHA premiums (Jan. 7)
- ETFs: ITB +3%, XHB +2.5%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +2.7%), Lennar (LEN +3.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI +4%), Ryland (RYL +2.9%), KB Home (KBH +2.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.6%), PulteGroup (PHM +3.9%).
Dec. 12, 2014, 10:56 AM| Dec. 12, 2014, 10:56 AM | 2 Comments
Dec. 10, 2014, 3:53 PM
- "Why 2014 was a pause and flat to 2013 and not improving has been a bit puzzling," says Toll Brothers (TOL -7.6%) management on the earnings call.
- Asked about the impact of tumbling energy prices on markets like Dallas and Houston, management says the company's exposure there is small, with Houston accounting for 3.7% of signed contracts.
- Overall, Toll expects the housing recovery to be "bumpy," and that demand will truly return when buyers no longer fear price drops.
- Previously: Toll Brothers slips on FQ4 miss (Dec. 10, 2014)
- It's a different story (at least for the stock price) with Hovanian (HOV +5.9%) after its earning report today. Management: "It's an understatement to say that the past 12 months have been choppy ... Given the gains we've seen in employment, we would have expected stronger home sales."
- Previously: Hovnanian pops as fiscal 2015 starts off strong (Dec. 10, 2014)
- Other builders today: Ryland (RYL -5.1%), Lennar (LEN -5.3%), Beazer (BZH -5.1%), Pulte (PHM -3.5%), KB Home (KBH -5.1%).
- ETFs: ITB -3.4%, XHB -2.5%
Dec. 10, 2014, 8:33 AM
- FQ4 net income takes a hit from $10.8M of inventory impairments, and a $32M warranty and litigation charge over projected stucco-related repairs at older homes in certain PA and DE communities.
- FQ4 home building deliveries (1,807 units) up 29% in dollars and 22% in units from a year ago. ASP of $747K vs. $703K.
- Net signed contracts of $970.8M and 1,282 units up 16% and 10% Y/Y, respectively. ASP of $757K vs. $721K.
- Backlog of $2.72B and 3,679 units up 3% in dollars and flat in units from a year ago.
- Gross margin, excluding interest and inventory write-downs of 25.5% vs. 25.4% one year ago.
- Conference call at 2 ET
- Previously: Toll Brothers misses by $0.02, beats on revenue
- TOL -0.8% premarket
Dec. 10, 2014, 6:00 AM
- Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL): FQ4 EPS of $0.71 misses by $0.02.
- Revenue of $1.35B (+29.8% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
Dec. 9, 2014, 5:30 PM
Nov. 10, 2014, 7:55 AM
- The early results are being released in conjunction with Toll's (NYSE:TOL) presentation at a conference to take place on Thursday. The full report is set for December 10.
- Fiscal Q4 revenue of $1.35B and 1,087 units up 29% in dollar terms and 22% in unit terms Y/Y. ASP of $747K vs. $703K a year ago.
- Net signed contracts of $970.2M and 1,282 units up 16% in dollar terms and 10% in units Y/Y. ASP of net contracts of $757K vs. $721K a year ago. On a per-community basis, net signed contracts of 5.01 compares to 5.17 a year ago.
- Backlog of $2.72B and 3,679 units up 3% in dollars and flat in units Y/Y.
- Shares +1.5% premarket
Sep. 17, 2014, 10:04 AM
- Lennar's sizable earnings beat included a 23% gain in new orders - a strong result given the slowdown seen from some other builders.
- Previously: Lennar up 4.3% after reporting big quarter
- ETFs: ITB +2.6%, XHB +1.8%
- Individual players: Ryland (RYL +4.8%) Pulte (PHM +3.8%), Toll Bros. (TOL +3.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI +4%), Hovnanian (HOV +5.8%), KB Home (KBH +4.4%), Comstock (CHCI +4.2%), Standard Pacific (SPF +3.8%).
Sep. 3, 2014, 10:08 AM
- "We have seen some lessening of pricing power in the past year," says Toll Brothers (TOL -2.6%) chief Douglas Yearley, quickly adding the company does not yet see the need to boost incentives to spur sales.
- Fiscal 2014 guidance: Deliveries now expected at 5.3K-5.5K homes from 5.1K-5.85K previously (midpoint drops to 5.4K from 5.475K); ASP of deliveries of $710K-$725K from $690-$720K.
- Gross margin is expected to be 185-200 bps higher than 2013 vs. previous guidance of 175-200 bps improvement.
- Expected selling communities is now at 255-275 vs. 250-290 previously.
- Previously: Toll Brothers beats by $0.08, beats on revenue
Sep. 3, 2014, 7:11 AM
- Net income jumped 110% to $97.7M, or $0.53 per share, from $46.6M, or $0.26 per share, a year earlier.
- The company sold 1,444 homes in the third quarter ended July 31, up from 1,059 in the same period a year ago. Average selling price rose 12% to $732,000.
- Backlog of $3.1B and 4,204 units vs. FY 2014's third-quarter-end backlog of $2.8B and 4,001 units.
- FQ3 results
- TOL +2.3% premarket
Toll Brothers, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and marketing of detached and attached homes. It also builds or converts existing rental apartment buildings into high-, mid-, and low-rise luxury homes. It operates through the Traditional Home Building and City Living segments. The... More
Sector: Industrial Goods
Industry: Residential Construction
Country: United States
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