Toll Brothers Is Immune To The Fed And Could Double In 2 Years
Troy Bayer • 11 Comments
Troy Bayer • 11 Comments
Mar. 5, 2014, 10:46 AM
- A check of the homebuilders following Hovnanian's big earnings miss and slowdown in closings (HOV now down 6.6%): NVR (NVR -1.5%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.1%), KB Home (KBH -1.8%), Pulte (PHM -0.8%), Ryland (RYL -1.5%), Toll Bros. (TOL -0.3%), Lennar (LEN -1%).
- So what's the SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB +0.1%) doing in the green? The ETF has a heavy weighting to those tangential to the homebuilding industry - retail home improvement, building suppliers. More of a pure-play homebuilder fund is the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB -0.8%).
Feb. 26, 2014, 10:34 AM
- Brutal winter weather has been the excuse for a long string of weak economic stats this year, but not January New Home Sales, which surged 9.6% from December to a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 468K - a 5-year high. Expectations were for a drop to 400K. December sales were revised higher from 414K to 427K.
- The median sales price rose 3.4% Y/Y to $260,100.
- The Northeast led the way with a 73.7 jump. Sales climbed 11% in the West, and 10.4% in the South. In the MidWest, they dropped 17.2%.
- Full report
- The homebuilders cheer. ETFs: XHB +1.9%, ITB +2.2%. Individual names: TOL +1.8%, HOV +2%, RYL +2.9%, KBH +2.5%, LEN +2.7%, PHM +2.3%.
Feb. 25, 2014, 7:55 AM
- Toll Brothers' (TOL -0.2%) net income jumped to $45.6M from $4.4M a year earlier.
- Pretax profit rose to $71.2M from $8.3M a year earlier, boosted by $23.5M from the sale of two shopping centers in which Toll held 50% and $6.3M from land sales.
- Units delivered +24% to 928.
- Average home price increased to $694,000 from $569,000.
- Cancellation rate 7% vs 6.2%.
- Net signed contracts -6% to 916 units, hurt by the severe winter.
- Backlog +45% to $2.69B, or +31% to 3,667 units.
- Toll is optimistic about the Spring selling season, "based on solid affordability, attractive interest rates, growing pent-up demand and an industry still under-producing."
- Previous (PR)
Feb. 25, 2014, 5:57 AM
- Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL): FQ1 EPS of $0.25 beats by $0.06.
- Revenue of $643.7M (+51.6% Y/Y) in-line.
Feb. 25, 2014, 12:05 AM
Feb. 24, 2014, 5:30 PM
Jan. 31, 2014, 11:49 AM
- The homebuilders continue a big move higher this week as the sector reports better-than-expected results from Q4, and now has the tailwind of lower rates behind it. Off four basis points to 2.66% today, the 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled about 35 basis points in January.
- A couple of upgrades has Jefferson Research raising D.R. Horton (DHI +3.5%) to a Buy and RayJay upping Pulte Group (PHM +4.5%) to Outperform.
- ETFs; XHB +1.4%, ITB +2.3%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3%), NVR (NVR +3.6%), William Lyons (WLH +1.1%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.2%), Lennar (LEN +3.4%)
- The New Home Company (NWHM) is up 10% from last night's IPO price of $11, but the pricing range had been expected at $15-$17 per share.
Jan. 30, 2014, 9:44 AM
- Another pair of big Q4 results from the homebuilders - today Pulte and Ryland - has the entire sector on the move. ITB +1.5%, XHB +1.1%.
- Yes, mortgage rates put a crimp in sales, but higher prices more than made up for the difference, and D.R. Horton management suggests the sales pace has picked back up in January. Pulte reported new orders off 18% from a year ago, but the value of orders barely fell. Closings in Q4 were down 4% from 2012, but revenues gained 9%.
- Taylor Morrison (TMHC +0.2%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC +1.2%), Standard Pacific (SPF +1.4%), KB Home (KBH +3.3%), Hovanian (HOV +0.8%), Toll Brothers (TOL +0.9%)
Jan. 28, 2014, 10:15 AM
- The homebuilders have their tails in their air following D.R. Horton's big earnings results which showed reports about the end of the housing recovery may be premature (DHI +8.5%). The company reported average sales price gains of 10%, orders by value up 14%, and the value of properties under contract up 20%.
- "Our weekly sales pace has accelerated in January," says Chairman Don Horton.
- XHB +1.6%, ITB +3%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3.2%), Lennar (LEN +4.3%), KB Home (KBH +3.8%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.3%), Ryland (RYL +3.2%), Standard Pacific (SPF +3.2%), Comstock (CHCI +3.9%), Pulte (PHM +2.7%), NVR (NVR +1.4%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC +3.6%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC +4.2%)
Jan. 24, 2014, 8:05 AM
- "Longer-term we believe builders have upside, but now offer only moderate risk-adjusted upside if 2014 meets expectations, with greater downside potential amid rising rates or lower than expected growth," says analyst Kenneth Zener, throwing in the towel on Buy ratings for D.R. Horton (DHI) and MDC Holdings.
- The stocks trade at about 2x adjusted book value, says Zener, and builders only traded above that level for 16% of the time since 1978.
- His team maintains Buy ratings on Toll Bros. (TOL) and Lennar (LEN) despite the aging of the"spring" trade, but based on long-term growth prospects and their longer land positions.
Jan. 17, 2014, 9:49 AM
- December housing starts of 999K fell 9.8% from November, but are up 1.6% from a year ago. SIngle family starts of 667K fell 7% from last month. For the full year, an estimated 923.4K housing units were started, up 18.2% from 2012.
- Building permits of 986K declined 3% M/M, rose 4.6% Y/Y. For the full year, an estimated 974K units were authorized, up 17.5% from 2012.
- Full report
- XHB -0.75%, ITB -0.8%.
- Builders: Toll Bros. (TOL -1.1%), Lennar (LEN -1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.1%), Ryland (RYL -1.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.1%), Pulte (PHM -1.4%), KB Home (KBH -0.9%).
Jan. 16, 2014, 3:32 AM
- The number of foreclosure filings dropped to the lowest level since 2007 last year, declining 26% to 1.36M properties, RealtyTrac says. The figure is less than half of the peak of 2.9M properties in 2010.
- States with the highest foreclosure rates in 2013 were Florida, Nevada, Illinois, Maryland and Ohio.
- The number of foreclosure processes started plunged 33% to 747,728, the lowest since RealtyTrac began tracking the data in 2006. Bank repossessions plummeted 31% to 462,970 properties, the least since 2007. (PR)
- Relevant tickers: PHM, MHO, TOL, KBH, RYL, HOV, SPF, FNMA, FMCC
- ETFs: ITB, XHB, MBB, MBG, VMBS, CMBS, COBO
Dec. 23, 2013, 2:22 PM
- Homebuilders and private mortgage insurers are partying thanks to incoming FHFA chief Mel Watts' weekend move to postpone an increase in fees which would have raised significantly raised mortgage costs for those with good, but not stellar credit and less than 20% to put down.
- "This is a victory for the housing finance industry," says FBR's Edward Mills. "We believe that this is the first of a series of decisions by incoming Director Watt to preserve/expand mortgage credit availability ... We view this announcement as positive for housing generally, but specifically for private mortgage insurers, originators, and homebuilders."
- Homebuilder ETFs: XHB +2%, ITB +2.8%.
- Homebuilder names: Toll Brothers (TOL +3.9%), Putle (PHM +5%), Lennar (LEN +3.2%), KB Home (KBH +6.9%), Hovnanian (HOV +4.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.8%), Standard Pacific (SPF +4%).
- Mortgage insurers: Radian (RDN +4.1%), MGIC (MTG +1.1%), Genworth (GNW +1.6%), Old Republic (ORI +0.7%), NMI Holdings (NMIH +1.1%). Essent Group (ESNT -0.6%) is off a hair, but up 29% since its late-October IPO.
- Not showing much reaction today, but potentially set up to disappoint if the GSEs do not allow any private oxygen in mortgage finance are Redwood Trust (RWT -0.2%) and PennyMac Financial (PFSI +1.2%).
Dec. 11, 2013, 2:59 PM
- The two worst-performing sectors on a down day are industrials (XLI -1.4%) and homebuilders (XHB -1.5%), (ITB -1.9%).
- Industrials are taking a hit after Joy Global (JOY -6.3%) missed earnings estimates and provided disappointing guidance. "With a limited number of projects that can book in time to help 2014, we continue to see both the need and opportunity to lower the cost base in our business," says the company. Caterpillar (CAT -1.2%).
- Homebuilders continue to digest Toll Brothers' (TOL -1.8%) "leveling in demand" comments from yesterday's earnings results - in the 19 weeks since August 1, business has been flat vs. last year, and in the first 5 weeks of FQ1 (beginning Nov. 1) business has also been flat from 2012 (though Hurricane Sandy makes a tricky comparison).
- CEO Doug Yearley on the earnings call (transcript): "There's just not a lot of action [this time of year]. We still feel like pent-up demand is building, demographics are on our side, affordability is in place, and we are cautiously optimistic about the spring season, which begins the end of January."
- Lennar (LEN -2.3%), D. R. Horton (DHI -3%), KB Home (KBH -3.1%), Hovnanian (HOV -3.3%)
Dec. 10, 2013, 11:26 AM
- Toll Brothers (TOL +0.1%) gives up a sizable post-earnings premarket pop with management's "leveling in demand" comment about the current (6-week-old) quarter offering a nice excuse to sell. Thus far in the quarter, contracts are flat from last year after rising 6% in FQ4 and 25% in FQ3.
- Homebuilders ETFs: XHB +0.2%, ITB +0.3%.
Dec. 10, 2013, 7:34 AM
- Pre-tax income of $150.2M is up 147% from a year ago on revenue of $1.04B, up $65%. Deliveries of 1,485 units is up 36% Y/Y.
- Net signed contracts of $839M and 1,163 units are up 23% and 6%, respectively, from a year ago. Backlog of $2.63B and 3,679 units up 57% and 43%, respectively.
- Average price of homes delivered of $703K is up from $651K in Q3 and $582K a year ago. Operating margin of 12.3% is up 400 basis points from a year ago.
- Six weeks into FQ1, the company updates: "Contracts have been flat to last year ... We believe this leveling in demand will prove temporary based on still-significant pent-up demand."
- The Shapell Homes (California) acquisition is expected to close in early 2014.
- CC at 2 ET.
- TOL +3.6% premarket
Toll Brothers, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and marketing of detached and attached homes. It also builds or converts existing rental apartment buildings into high-, mid-, and low-rise luxury homes. It operates through the Traditional Home Building and City Living segments. The... More
Sector: Industrial Goods
Industry: Residential Construction
Country: United States
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