Toll Brothers Inc.
 (TOL)

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  • Mon, Jan. 25, 11:50 AM
    • "Texas is in good shape," says D.R. Horton (DHI -3.5%) CEO David Auld, speaking on the earnings call (reported by Diana Olick). "We have a positive tone because we're seeing positive things out there in the market." Auld also takes note of DHI's cheaper "Express" brand, which he says is driving market share gains.
    • The stock is lower despite an earnings beat, with investors perhaps focusing on slowing price gains (sales orders up 9%, dollar amount up 12%).
    • Other names: Hovnanian (HOV -4.6%), Toll Brothers (TOL -3.4%), Lennar (LEN -3.4%), PulteGroup (PHM -3.1%), KB Home (KBH -3.8%).
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB
    | Mon, Jan. 25, 11:50 AM | 4 Comments
  • Dec. 16, 2015, 9:50 AM
    • The seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of housing starts in November of 1.173M was up 10.5% from October and 16.5% from a year ago. Single-family starts of 768K gained 7.6% from October.
    • Building permits of 1.289M gained 11% M/M and 19.5% Y/Y. SIngle-family permits of 723K gained just 1.1% from last month.
    • The South was a particular area of strength, with housing starts in that region of 615K up from 507K in October. SIngle-family starts there of 409K gained from 376K.
    • The major average are up modestly, but the ITB is ahead 1.5%, and XHB +1.25%.
    • Individual names: Toll Brothers (TOL +1.8%), Lennar (LEN +1.7%), Pulte (PHM +1.5%), KB Home (KBH +0.9%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.8%)
    | Dec. 16, 2015, 9:50 AM | 7 Comments
  • Dec. 10, 2015, 9:51 AM
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +1.1%) earlier this week took a sharp tumble after missing FQ4 earnings expectations. The fall completed (or didn't) a roughly-20% move down in the stock since late summer.
    • RBC Capital upgrades to Sector Perform from Underperform. The price target is raised $2 to $37. The current price is $34.20.
    • Previously: Toll Brothers misses by $0.03, beats on revenue (Dec. 8)
    | Dec. 10, 2015, 9:51 AM | 1 Comment
  • Dec. 8, 2015, 7:25 AM
    • FQ4 net income of $147.2M or $0.80 per share vs. $131.5M and $0.71 one year earlier.
    • Home building deliveries of 1,820 units for $1.44B up 1% in units and 6% in dollars.
    • Net signed contracts of 1,437 units for $1.25B up 12% in units and 29% in dollars. ASP of net signed contracts of $872K up from $757K a year ago.
    • In the first five weeks of FQ1 of 2016, net signed contracts up 21% in units.
    • Backlog of $3.5B and 4,064 units up 29% in dollars and 10% in units.
    • Gross margin excluding interest and impairments of 26%, up 80 basis points from a year ago.
    • FY16 revenue is expected at $4.5B-$5.6B based on deliveries of 5.6K-6.6K homes at an ASP of $800K-$850K.
    • During FY15, 1.67M shares repurchased at an average price of $34.17.
    • Conference call at 11 ET
    • Previously: Toll Brothers misses by $0.03, beats on revenue (Dec. 8)
    • TOL flat premarket
    | Dec. 8, 2015, 7:25 AM | 1 Comment
  • Nov. 10, 2015, 12:15 PM
    • D.R. Horton is up 6.8% after cruising through FQ4 estimates, with orders, backlogs, and closings all up smartly, but prices up only modestly. Pre-tax margin gained 60 basis points to 10.7%, and the company boosted its quarterly dividend by two pennies to $0.08 per share (1% yield).
    • Bears might note the beat was helped along by a $17.5M benefit from the company's DTA, but the bulls control the tape today.
    • With the major averages in the red, the homebuilder ETF is up sharply, ITB +1.4%. More focused on industry suppliers, the XHB is up 0.4%.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +1.7%), PulteGroup (PHM +2.4%), Lennar (LEN +1.5%), Ryland (RYL), KB Home (KBH +2.3%), Hovnanian (HOV -0.8%).
    • Previously: More on D.R. Horton's FQ4 beat (Nov. 10)
    • Previously: D. R. Horton beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (Nov. 10)
    | Nov. 10, 2015, 12:15 PM | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 27, 2015, 6:54 PM
    • Toll Brothers (TOL -2.5%) has priced an offering of $350M in senior notes.
    • The 4.875% senior notes are due November 2025, with settlement to come Oct. 30.
    • Proceeds will go to general purposes, which might include acquisition of land and development of new projects as well as debt repayment.
    • In its most recent quarter, Toll Brothers reported $404.8M in cash against total debt of $3.32B (debt/equity of 80.5).
    • Shares were flat in after-hours action.
    | Oct. 27, 2015, 6:54 PM | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 26, 2015, 10:11 AM
    • The pace of new home sales tumbled to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 468K in September. That's down 11.5% from August's 529K (revised down from 552K), and just 2% above the level of a year ago. Analysts had expected a 550K pace in September.
    • The Northeast suffered an unusually large decline, with sales dropping to 13K from 34K ... must have been the weather. Sales in the Midwest fell to 55K from 60K; South to 274K from 300K; West to 126K from 135K.
    • Maybe a bigger issue are prices: The median price of 296.9K was 13.5% higher than a year ago.
    • The homebuilders aren't liking the news: Toll Brothers (TOL -2%), Lennar (LEN -1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.8%), KB Home (KBH -2.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI -2.5%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.4%)
    • ITB -1.6%, XHB -0.7%
    • Full report
    • Previously: New Home Sales hits 10-month low at 468K (Oct. 26)
    | Oct. 26, 2015, 10:11 AM | 14 Comments
  • Oct. 22, 2015, 12:03 PM
    • The major averages are up 1.5%, and a strong existing home sales number this morning added to a beat in housing starts earlier this week, but the homebuilders are retreating.
    • At work are weaker-than-hoped reports from PulteGroup (PHM -6.4%) and M/I Homes (MHO -5.7%).
    • Pulte reported a decline in closings, with ASPs up just a hair vs. the 8% gain in sales prices a year ago. Home sales in Texas slumped 15%, and while net new orders for the company overall rose 8%, they fell 5% in that state.
    • KB Home (KBH -4.3%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1%), Lennar (LEN -0.6%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.2%)
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB
    • Previously: Sale price gains slow down at Pulte (Oct. 22)
    • Previously: M/I Homes misses by $0.04, misses on revenue (Oct. 22)
    | Oct. 22, 2015, 12:03 PM | 3 Comments
  • Oct. 13, 2015, 9:51 AM
    • Upgraded to Overweight is Toll Brothers (TOL -0.1%), and upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight is KB Home (KBH +0.5%). The TOL price target of $44 is nearly 20% above last night's close.
    • Downgraded to Under Weight is Pulte Group (PHM -2.3%), with the price target cut to $18 from $22 (current price is $19.64).
    • Checking relative performance, Toll Brothers is up 8.4% YTD, while Pulte is down 8.4% and KBHome is down 10.2%.
    | Oct. 13, 2015, 9:51 AM | 3 Comments
  • Sep. 24, 2015, 10:15 AM
    • SIngle-family new home sales in August at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 552K were up 5.7% from July (itself upwardly revised to 522K from 505K). August's pace was also up 21.6% from a year ago.
    • By region, Northeast sales of 36K rose from 29K, Midwest to 60K vs. 66K, South 319K from 297K, and West 137K vs. 130K.
    • Despite the strong August results, homebuilders remain lower alongside the broader market.
    • Leading the way lower is KB Home (KBH -3.4%) which reported an earnings beat this morning, but rising land costs did eat into profit margins.
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB
    • Toll Brothers (TOL -0.4%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.8%), Lennar (LEN -0.9%), D.R. Horton (DHI -0.8%), Standard Pacific (SPF -1.6%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC -1.5%).
    | Sep. 24, 2015, 10:15 AM | 3 Comments
  • Sep. 17, 2015, 3:49 PM
    • Outperforming alongside the big dividend payers are the homebuilders after the FOMC refrained from hiking rates today, but still all but promises tighter policy before the year is out. The big gains in homebuilders are in contrast to the S&P 500 which is flat.
    • The inaction has sparked a major rally in bonds across the curve, with the 10-year yield lower by ten basis points to 2.20% and the two-year yield down a full twelve basis points to 0.68%.
    • Earlier today, August housing starts disappointed, and July starts were revised sharply lower.
    • Previously: August housing starts disappoint; July revised sharply lower (Sept. 17)
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +1.2%), Lennar (LEN +1.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +6%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.1%), Ryland (RYL +2.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2%), KB Home (KBH +2%)
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB
    | Sep. 17, 2015, 3:49 PM | 4 Comments
  • Aug. 25, 2015, 8:37 AM
    • Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is 2.4% lower premarket after posting a miss on its FQ3 revenues and profits.
    • Net income slipped nearly 32%, to $66.7M. While revenues fell 3%, net signed contracts were up 30% in dollar terms, to $1.23B, and up 12% in terms of units, to 1,479.
    • Backlog of $3.69B (up 19%) and 4,447 units (up 6%), the highest backlog for any quarter's end in eight years. Average price of homes in backlog was $829K, over $800K for the first time.
    • Gross margin of 19.8% was down from a year-ago 22.7%.
    • The company guided to fiscal Q4 deliveries of 1,645-1,945 at average price of $780K-$800K, which narrows its guidance on full-year deliveries to 5,350-5,650 homes at average price of $745K-$760K.
    • The company will discuss the results and its full-year outlook on a conference call to come at 11 a.m. ET.
    | Aug. 25, 2015, 8:37 AM | 3 Comments
  • Aug. 17, 2015, 4:33 PM
    • Major stock indexes rebounded from opening declines to finish modestly higher, after a solid housing report showed some strength on a lightly traded Monday.
    • Homebuilding stocks paced gainers, including Toll Brothers (TOL +2.3%); Ryland (RYL +2.1%); KB Home (KBH +3.1%), Lennar (LEN +2.7%) and Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC +2.9%).
    • The S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 2,102.44; for 2015, it's up 2.12%. The move up came despite a grim reading from New York manufacturing that sent bond yields lower. TLT +0.5%; TBT -0.8%.
    • Volumes overall were about 20% below recent average.
    • Sector gains were broadly distributed, with a flat energy sector as the laggard. Healthcare stocks performed well, paced by dollar volume leaders Gilead Sciences (GILD +0.7%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +1.1%) and Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) +1.1%.
    | Aug. 17, 2015, 4:33 PM | 12 Comments
  • Jul. 22, 2015, 10:36 AM
    • In the latest data point signaling the housing recovery has shifted into another gear, the NAR earlier reported a 3.2% gain in the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of existing home sales to 5.49M in June.
    • Sales are at their highest pace since February 2007 and are 9.6% above the pace of one year ago.
    • The median price of $236.4K is up 6.5% Y/Y and surpasses the peak set in July 2006.
    • ETFs: ITB +1.5%, XHB +1.5%
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +2%), Lennar (LEN +1.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.9%), Pulte (PHM +2.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Hovnanian (HOV +0.9%), Ryland (RYL +3.1%)
    • Previously: Existing home sales rise to fastest pace in eight years (July 22)
    | Jul. 22, 2015, 10:36 AM | 17 Comments
  • Jun. 24, 2015, 9:47 AM
    | Jun. 24, 2015, 9:47 AM | 3 Comments
  • Jun. 19, 2015, 10:09 AM
    • KB Home CEO Jeffrey Mezger is confident of his company's ability to achieve "measurable year-over-year earnings growth in H2" after reporting new order growth of 33% in units and 38% in dollars in FQ2, and backlog growth of 39% in units and 57% in dollars.
    • KB Home is up 6%, leading the ITB +1.4%, and XHB +0.8% even as the major averages slip.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL +2.3%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.7%), Lennar (LEN +3%), Ryland (RYL +2%), D.R. Horton (DRI +2.5%), Pulte (PHM +2.5%)
    • Previously: KB Home gains following earnings beat (June 19)
    • Previously: KB Home beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (June 19)
    | Jun. 19, 2015, 10:09 AM
Company Description
Toll Brothers Inc designs, builds, markets and arranges financing for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities.