Thu, Feb. 19, 2:28 PM
- Expedia (EXPE +2%) and TripAdvisor (TRIP +3.9%) are having a good day after Priceline beat Q4 estimates in spite of being heavily pressured by a weak euro, and reported 17% Y/Y bookings growth (above guidance of 8%-15%).
- The online travel giant's Q1 guidance - 4%-11% revenue growth vs. a 13.5% consensus, and 2%-9% bookings growth (14%-21% in constant currency) - is light, but better than feared given forex and Priceline's history of guiding conservatively.
- The shoe was on the other foot last week: Priceline rallied in response to TripAdvisor's results and the Expedia/Orbitz deal.
Wed, Feb. 11, 6:45 PM
- In addition to beating Q4 revenue estimates (while missing on EPS), TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP) guided on its CC (webcast) for high-20s 2015 revenue growth, above a 24% consensus. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow at a low-to-mid teens clip.
- A 97% Y/Y increase in subscription, transaction, & other revenue (to $71M) provided a big lift to Q4 sales. Click-based (metasearch ad) sales rose 25% to $181M, and display ad sales rose 13% to $36M. North America sales +35%, EMEA +39%; Asia-Pac +13%. Forex had a 4% impact on sales growth.
- GAAP costs/expenses +25% Y/Y to $228M (compares with 35% revenue growth). Sales/marketing spend totaled $115M, up from $107M a year ago but down from Q3's $159M (boosted by a TV ad campaign).
- TRIP +13.7% AH to $76.50. After having tumbled in November thanks to TripAdvisor's Q3 report, shares went into earnings close to a 52-week low of $66.04.
- Q4 results, PR (.pdf), earnings slides (.pdf)
Wed, Feb. 11, 4:08 PM
Tue, Feb. 10, 5:35 PM
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Nov. 5, 2014, 10:08 AM
- In addition to missing Q3 EPS estimates (while beating on revenue), TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP) used its CC (transcript) to lower its full-year adjusted EBITDA growth forecast to the low-20s range. Three months ago, the company forecast adjusted EBITDA growth would be at the low end of a prior high-20s to low-30s range (that also didn't go over well).
- In addition, guidance for 2014 click-based (search-driven) revenue growth has been lowered to the mid-20s from the high-20s. TripAdvisor notes ad clicks are being affected by "hotel shopper seasonality."
- Subscription/transaction/other guidance has been raised to the low-80s from the high-60, and display ad growth is still forecast to be in the mid-to-high teens; acquisitions are giving a lift to the former. Total revenue growth is still expected to be in the high-20s to low-30s; consensus is at 31.5%.
- Heavy spending is partly responsible for the EBITDA guidance cut: GAAP costs/expenses rose 58% Y/Y to $270M, with sales/marketing spend rising 64% to $159M. TripAdvisor has ramped spending for both online ads (similar to peers) and a TV ad campaign, and says it's "leveraging [its] very large and profitable hotel business to capture market share in attractions."
- Q3 click-based ad revenue +31% Y/Y to $247M; display ads +13% to $35M; subscription/transaction/other +106% to $72M.
- BofA/Merrill and Pac Crest have downgraded, and several firms have cut their targets.
- Q3 results, PR (.pdf)
Nov. 4, 2014, 4:14 PM
Nov. 4, 2014, 8:51 AM
- Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) beat Q3 EPS estimates and posted in-line revenue, but offered EPS guidance that was well below consensus and noted macro conditions are mixed, especially in Europe. Revenue guidance (11%-18% Y/Y growth vs. a 23.8% consensus) is also light.
- The online travel giant also reported bookings growth slowed to 28% in Q3 from 34% in Q2 - U.S. bookings growth fell to 9.9% from 20.6%, and international growth to 31.6% from 36.2% - and guided for just 8%-15% Q4 bookings growth. Forex (driven by a weak euro) is expected to have a 500 bps impact on Q4 growth.
- While Priceline has a history of guiding conservatively, the size of the guidance shortfalls is raising eyebrows. Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) -1.2% premarket, TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP) -0.8%. TripAdvisor reports after the bell.
Oct. 31, 2014, 1:42 PM
- Expedia (EXPE +5%) is rallying after beating Q3 estimates on the back of a 29% Y/Y increase in gross bookings (even with Q2's clip) to $13.5B. U.S. bookings rose 35% to $7.9B, and international bookings 22% to $5.6B.
- Hotel room nights rose 24% Y/Y (down from Q2's 28%), and air tickets 30% (up from Q2's 28%). Revenue per room night fell 2%; revenue per ticket fell 7%.
- Sales/marketing spend (much of it on Google) rose 30% to $815.8M, and tech/content spend 20% to $172.8M. $130M was spent on buybacks.
- On the CC (transcript), the company reiterated guidance for 16%-19% full-year adjusted EBITDA growth. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi noted the Travelocity deal is boosting top-line performance, and said the company plans to increase investments in its Chinese eLong (LONG -0.5%) unit, which is facing "challenges and competitive headwinds."
- With marketing spend remaining high and investments in eLong and Trivago ramping, Benchmark expects "minimal EBITDA margin expansion" in 2015. But it also expects 13% sales growth after the Travelocity deal reaches its 1-year anniversary.
- Priceline (PCLN +4.6%) and TripAdvisor (TRIP +2.8%) are getting a lift from Expedia. The Nasdaq is up 1.3%.
Jul. 24, 2014, 10:14 AM
- TripAdvisor's (TRIP -10.7%) sales/marketing spend rose 53% Y/Y in Q2 to $127M, outpacing revenue growth of 31% and contributing to an EPS miss. The company mentioned on its CC (transcript) it spent $10M on a TV ad campaign that started in May.
- In addition, due to "incremental investments" in both its hotel ops and its new restaurant booking ops (LaFourchette), TripAdvisor now expects full-year adjusted EBITDA growth to be at the low end of a prior high-20s to low-30s guidance range. Guidance for high-20s to low-30s revenue growth is reiterated.
- Click-based revenue (73% of total revenue) rose 28% Y/Y in Q2, a pickup from Q1's 16% growth. Display ad revenue rose 19% vs. 16% in Q1, and subscription, transaction & other revenue rose 55% vs. 62%. Monthly unique users rose 25% to 280M.
- North American sales (50% of total) +20% Y/Y, EMEA +47%, Asia-Pac +40%, Latin America +30%. Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 40% from 46% a year ago.
- Shares were up 30% in 2014 going into the report. Cantor has downgraded them to Hold.
- Q2 results, PR (.pdf)
Jul. 23, 2014, 4:11 PM
May. 7, 2014, 3:23 PM
- Though it missed Q1 estimates, TripAdvisor (TRIP +1.9%) used its CC (transcript) to guide for "high 20s to low 30s" 2014 revenue growth, up from a prior forecast of mid-20s growth and above a 25.8% consensus. EBITDA is expected to grow at a similar clip.
- Thanks to "strong auction dynamics, " click-based (search ad) revenue is now expected to grow at a high-20s in 2014 (up from low-20s). Subscription/transaction/other is expected to grow at a high-60s rate (up from low-50s), and display ads are still expected to see mid-to-high teens growth.
- Click-based revenue only rose 16% Y/Y in Q1, but was up over 30% in April. Display ad sales rose 28% in Q1 on the back of 30% impression growth (fueled by a 27% increase in monthly unique visitors to 250M), and subscription/transaction/other revenue rose 62% on strong demand for business and vacation rental listings.
- 47% of March traffic came from mobile devices, and cumulative app downloads have topped 100M.
- Cantor, Stifel, and RBC have hiked their PTs. Cantor's Naved Khan thinks an upcoming TV ad campaign and new initiatives such as TripConnect could yield additional upside to growth.
May. 6, 2014, 4:06 PM
Feb. 12, 2014, 12:03 PM
- TripAdvisor (TRIP +8.3%) is making new highs after beating Q4 revenue estimates and providing strong guidance on its CC (transcript). The travel reviews leader said it expects 2014 revenue growth to be in the mid-20s range (consensus is at 21.9%), and for EBITDA to grow at a similar clip.
- TripAdvisor expects click-based (CPC) ad sales to show accelerating growth in 2014, with full-year growth in the low-20s range. Display ad sales (CPM-based) are expected to grow at a high-teens rate, and all other businesses (subscriptions, transactions, etc.) are expected to collectively grow in the low-50s range.
- CPC ad sales made up 68% of Q4 revenue, display ads 15%, and all other businesses 17%. North American sales (51% of revenue) rose 22%, EMEA 30%, and Asia-Pac 40%. Latin America was flat.
- Mobile's share of TripAdvisor traffic doubled to 40% in 2013, and app downloads rose nearly 150% to 82M. Travel listings rose 80% to 550K, and business listing subs 38% to 69K.
- Priceline (PCLN +2.5%) and Expedia (EXPE +1.1%), both major TripAdvisor clients, are also trading higher. Expedia took off last week following a Q4 beat. Priceline, which launched an updated Android app this morning, reports on Feb. 20.
Feb. 11, 2014, 4:08 PM
Feb. 11, 2014, 12:10 AM
Feb. 10, 2014, 5:35 PM
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