Tripping Over TripAdvisor: Demystifying 'Disruptive Technology' In Online Travel
Jung-Yung Jonathan Chang
Jung-Yung Jonathan Chang
Mon, Jun. 6, 4:04 PM
- With Kayak, Travelocity, HomeAway, and Orbitz having all been acquired, a Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) purchase of TripAdvisor (TRIP +4.9%) could be the online travel industry's next big M&A transaction, argue Bloomberg's Tara Lachapelle and Rani Molla.
- The authors highlight the recent stagnation of Priceline's shares, and the fact TripAdvisor is well off its highs. Some challenges to a deal: TripAdvisor currently sports a $10.4B market cap and has a somewhat lofty valuation (32x a 2017 EPS consensus of $2.26), and TripAdvisor's ties to John Malone's Liberty Interactive (which controls Priceline archrival Expedia) could get in the way.
- Though still down 17% YTD, TripAdvisor rallied to its highest levels since January today. Volume (3.05M shares) was well above a 3-month daily average of 2.16M.
Wed, May 4, 6:03 PM
- TripAdvisor (TRIP -4.1%) has fallen another 3.4% after hours following Q1 earnings that missed on top and bottom lines and revenues that slipped 3%.
- The stock had fallen during market hours despite a positive mention at the Ira Sohn conference from Nick Danaher.
- Adjusted EBITDA fell 33% to $85M, well short of an expected $110.4M.
- Revenue by segment: Hotel, $303M (down 5%); Non-hotel, $49M (up 14%).
- Referral revenue dropped amid a rise in bookings directly on TripAdvisor's sites. Revenue by source: Branded click-based and transaction, $189M (down 13%); Branded display-based advertising and subscription, $68M (up 11%); Other hotel, $46M (up 12%); Non-hotel, $49M (up 14%).
- Geographically, the share of revenue from North America rose to 54% from last year's 50%, while EMEA dropped to 31% from 33%; APAC to 11% from 12%; and Latin America to 4% from 5%.
- Conference call to come tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Wed, May 4, 4:08 PM
- TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP): Q1 EPS of $0.32 misses by $0.14.
- Revenue of $352M (-3.0% Y/Y) misses by $18.46M.
- Shares -6%.
Wed, May 4, 9:41 AM
- Tripadvisor (TRIP -2.1%) is lower at the open in the wake of Priceline's post-guidance cut tumble, but Nick Danaher of Domando Capital Management - presenting at the Ira Sohn conference - says the stock is an easy double, and a possible multi-bagger. The company's instant booking feature, he says, is a game-changer.
- TRIP reports quarterly results tomorrow.
- For more on "instant booking," now read: TripAdvisor: Challenging The Parent (March 16)
Tue, May 3, 5:35 PM
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Tue, Mar. 22, 8:30 AM
- Travel-related stocks are down sharply following the terror attacks in Belgium at a metro station and the international airport.
- The latest report indicates 26 people were killed and 130 were injured from the explosions.
- Notable movers in premarket trading include Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) -2.26%, Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) -3.1%, Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) -2.5%, Carnival (NYSE:CCL) -2.4%, United Continental (NYSE:UAL) -3.6%, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NASDAQ:NCLH) -2.0%, Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) -2.4%, Tripadvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP) -1.6%.
- Previously: Brussels Airport, metro stations rocked by explosions (March 22)
- Previously: Futures lower after terrorist attacks in Brussels (March 22)
Mon, Mar. 14, 10:45 AM
- Buyout rumors making the rounds with traders have helped TripAdvisor (TRIP +7.2%) log major gains in early trading. Priceline has been mentioned as a potential suitor.
- 1.6M shares have already been traded; the 3-month daily average is 2.2M. TripAdvisor jumped last month after delivering a healthy Q4 beat, but remains 28% below a 52-week high of $94.00 (set in July).
Mon, Feb. 22, 7:07 AM| Mon, Feb. 22, 7:07 AM
Wed, Feb. 17, 10:14 AM
- Expedia (EXPE +6.4%) and TripAdvisor (TRIP +4.1%) are seeing healthy gains as Priceline (PCLN +10.6%) surges after beating Q4 estimates and reporting bookings growth accelerated to 13% Y/Y from Q3's 7% (and beat guidance for 1%-8% growth). Last week, Priceline and TripAdvisor gained in response to Expedia's Q4 numbers.
- Guidance: Priceline's Q1 top-line guidance is healthy: Bookings are expected to rise 12%-19% Y/Y (18%-25% exc. forex), room nights by 20%-27%, and revenue by 9%-16% (compares with Q4's 9%). EPS guidance of $9.00-$9.60 is below a $9.61 consensus, but (as Q4 results show) Priceline has a history of issuing conservative EPS outlooks.
Q4 top-line performance: International revenue (89% of total revenue) rose 15.9% Y/Y (29% exc. forex) to $10.7B; U.S. revenue fell 7.6% to $1.3B. Agency revenue rose 15.3% to $10.3B; merchant revenue fell 0.9% to $1.7B.
Room nights booked rose 26.6% to 99.1M, an improvement from Q3's 22% growth and the highest growth rate seen since Q3 2014. Rental car days +10.6% to 12.2M vs. +13% in Q3. Air tickets -2.6% to 1.7M vs. -1.1% in Q3.
Financials: GAAP operating expenses rose 11% Y/Y to $1.22B - $582M was spent on online ads (much of it going to Google), $33.4M on offline ads, $83.7M on sales/marketing, $106.6M on G&A, $32.3M on IT, $70.7M on depreciation/amortization, and $312.6M on "Personnel" expenses, including stock compensation.
Priceline ended Q4 with $2.6B in cash, $7.9B in long-term investments, and $6.2B in long-term debt.
- Priceline's Q4 results, earnings release
Thu, Feb. 11, 12:49 PM
Thu, Feb. 11, 10:10 AM
- Up in after hours trading yesterday thanks to Expedia's earnings, TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP) has added to its gains after posting a Q4 beat fueled by strong non-click based (metasearch ad) revenue growth. Expectations were low following a market selloff and November's guidance cut.
- Top-line performance: While click-based ad revenue fell 1% Y/Y to $180M, display ad revenue rose 17% to $42M, and subscription, transaction & other revenue (includes Instant Booking) rose 23% to $87M. Hotel segment revenue rose just 4% Y/Y to $260M; Other segment revenue rose 32% to $49M. North America was 53% of revenue, EMEA 29%, Asia-Pac 13%, and Latin America 5%.
- Financials: Not counting a $67M non-cash charitable contribution, GAAP operating expenses rose 17% Y/Y to $267M, with sales/marketing spend accounting for $145M. Free cash flow was $58M in Q4 (+61% Y/Y), and $273M in 2015 (-11%). TripAdvisor ended 2015 with $698M in cash/investments and $201M in debt.
- Metrics: Average monthly unique users were flat Q/Q at 350M. Mobile app downloads rose by 60M Q/Q to 290M, and 53% of total unique users accessed via mobile devices. User reviews/opinions rose by 30M Q/Q to 320M.
- On its earnings call, TripAdvisor said it would no longer provide revenue and EBITDA guidance. The company cautioned Hotel segment growth would remain "muted" in 2016 before improving in 2017, and that expenses are likely to grow faster than revenue.
TripAdvisor's Q4 results, earnings release
Thu, Feb. 11, 9:13 AM
- Gainers: DDD +15%. AG +14%. FSM +13%. TRIP +12%. MUX +11%. AUY +11%. SBGL +11%. GFI +10%. AGI +10%. LC +10%. GG +10%. CDE +9%. EGO +9%. KGC +9%. HMY +9%. IAG +9%. EXPE +8%. ABX +8%. NEM +8%. SLW +8%. SSRI 8%. AU 7%. AEM 7%. HL 7%. NG 7%. CSCO 6%. SKX 5%.
- Losers: FLO -18%. INCY -15%. SFL -13%. MYL -13%. BTU -13%. ZNGA -13%. SNOW -11%. IFF -10%. ELMD -9%. AVP -8%. CS -7%. BCS -7%. SUNE -6%. CIG -5%. TWTR -6%.
Thu, Feb. 11, 6:12 AM
- TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP): Q4 EPS of $0.45 beats by $0.12.
- Revenue of $309M (+7.3% Y/Y) beats by $10.46M.
Wed, Feb. 10, 5:33 PM
- Though Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) missed Q4 EPS and (to a lesser extent) revenue estimates, the company reported gross bookings rose 32% Y/Y (40% exc. eLong, which has been divested) to $15B. Excluding eLong and the acquisitions of Orbitz/HomeAway, bookings rose 17% to $12.5B.
- Top-line performance: Expedia's core travel agency business saw bookings rise 44% to $13.6B, and its Egencia managed travel services business saw bookings rise 13% to $1.4B. U.S. bookings +50% to $9.6B; international bookings (hurt by a strong dollar) +26% to $5.4B. Hotel revenue +24%, air revenue (major boost from Orbitz) +61%, ad/media revenue +22%, other revenue +37%.
- Metrics: Excluding eLong (and including Orbitz/HomeAway), room nights rose 39% Y/Y to 52.8M thanks to both M&A and organic growth. U.S. room nights +33%, international +47%. Revenue/night fell 11%. Air ticket sales rose 70% thanks to Orbitz, with revenue/ticket dropping 5%.
- Financials: Thanks in part to Orbitz/HomeAway, adjusted costs/expenses rose 37% Y/Y to $1.57B, with sales/marketing spend rising 33% to $775M and R&D 48% to $170M. $45M was spent on buybacks. 2015 free cash flow was $581M (-44% Y/Y due to higher capex). Expedia ended 2015 with $1.7B in cash and $3.2B in debt.
- Expedia has jumped to $106.00 after hours. Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) is up 4.6% to $1,080.00. TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP) is up 6.7% to $58.00.
Wed, Feb. 10, 5:30 PM
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Fri, Feb. 5, 12:43 PM
- On a day the Nasdaq is down 2.4%, Internet stocks are seeing outsized losses after LinkedIn (down 41.3%) issued weak Q1/2016 guidance with its Q4 beat.
- The professional social networking leader forecast its corporate hiring solutions business would see slower growth in 2016 (international macro issues were blamed). It also noted display ad sales fell by a high-30s % Y/Y in Q4 amid ongoing secular industry pressures, and reported just 7% Y/Y unique visitor member growth.
- Facebook (FB -5.5%), which soared last week after blowing away Q4 estimates on the back of 57% Y/Y ad revenue growth, is among the casualties. As is Amazon (AMZN -4.9%), which sold off last week after missing Q4 estimates and issuing in-line Q1 sales guidance, is also down sharply. As is Twitter (TWTR -5.3%), which reports in five days and continues trading near post-IPO lows amid growth/engagement concerns.
- Other decliners include Yelp (YELP -7.9%), TripAdvisor (TRIP -6.3%), Expedia (EXPE -6%), LendingClub (LC -8.3%), Wix.com (WIX -6.8%), Wayfair (W -7.6%), Groupon (GRPN -4.9%), Shopify (SHOP -6.3%), and Zillow (Z -6%), as well as ad tech firms Criteo (CRTO -8.9%) and TubeMogul (TUBE -7.6%). The aforementioned companies are generally expected to post Q4 results in the coming weeks.
- Earlier: Enterprise software and security stocks hammered after Tableau/LinkedIn's earnings