The Travelers Companies, Inc.NYSE
Thu, Dec. 1, 8:43 AM
- Analyst James Naklocki expects Travelers (NYSE:TRV) to "drag its feet" on factoring in lower tax rates into pricing, thus allowing margins/returns to stay high vs. peers.
- Commercial line insurance brokers like TRV and Chubb (NYSE:CB) would seem to benefit most from a big infrastructure bill promised by the incoming president.
- He upgrades to Buy from Neutral with a Street-high $130 price target (about 15% upside).
- Alongside, he downgrades Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE:AJG) to Neutral from Buy, saying mid-sized brokers could have a tough time growing organically if U.S. commercial pricing falls. For AJG in particular, its tax credit producing clean coal business is likely to suffer under the next administration.
- Source: Bloomberg
Mon, Nov. 14, 11:33 AM
- The major averages are stuck in the red, but the XLF is up 2.2% and the KBE +3% as financial sector investors mull a world of higher interest rates and lowered regulation.
- REITs continue to fall, but thanks to this fall's sector reclassification, those names are no longer in the financial indexes.
- Regional banks: Regions Financial (RF +6.9%), New York Community (NYCB +2.9%), KeyCorp (KEY +3.1%), PNC Financial (PNC +2.4%), Fifth Third (FITB +4%), SunTrust (STI +3%), M&T (MTB +3.1%)
- Insurers: MetLife (MET +2.2%), Lincoln (LNC +3.2%), AIG (AIG +2.1%), Hartford (HIG +2.3%), Travelers (TRV +1.4%)
- Online brokerage: Schwab (SCHW +3.6%), Ameritrade (AMTD +2.5%)
- Asset management: Franklin Resources (BEN +3.2%), Och-Ziff (OZM +4.5%), Invesco (IVZ +2.2%), T. Rowe Price (TROW +2.8%), BlackRock (BLK +0.4%)
Thu, Nov. 10, 3:15 PM
Thu, Oct. 20, 2:17 PM
- The company managed to top consensus EPS of $2.39 by a penny, but fell shy of Sandler O'Neill's Paul Newsome's forecast of $2.43. Underwriting underperformance only partly offset by higher than anticipated net premiums earned and net investment income was to blame. A lower than expected tax rate helped too.
- Pulling out catastrophe losses from the combined ratio still led to a big rise (deterioration) - 92.1% vs. 88.8% a year ago, and against Newsome's estimate of 90%.
- "Our first impression is the roughly 3 point underling deterioration came from a couple point deterioration in the commercial insurance business (that is about where it was last quarter) and a nearly 6 point deterioration in the personal lines unit."
- TRV -5.15%
Thu, Oct. 20, 7:30 AM
- Q3 operating income of $701M or $2.40 per share vs. $918M and $2.93 a year ago, with the decline driven by lower net favorable prior year reserve development and higher non-cat weather-related losses. Buybacks helped ease the per share decline.
- Net written premiums of $6.389B up 2% Y/Y.
- Combined ratio of 92.9% up (worse) from 86.9% a year ago. Underlying combined ratio of 92.1% up from 88.8%.
- Operating ROE of 12.5% down from 16.2%.
- Adjusted book value per share of $78.82 vs. $74.35 a year ago. $562M of buybacks during quarter, bringing YTD total to over $1.7B.
- Conference call at 9 ET
- Previously: The Travelers Companies beats by $0.09, beats on net written premiums (Oct. 20)
- TRV +0.25% premarket to $116.50.
Thu, Oct. 20, 7:00 AM
Wed, Oct. 19, 5:30 PM
Thu, Oct. 6, 3:16 AM
- Millions of Americans are heading for higher ground as Hurricane Matthew barrels toward the Florida and South Carolina coasts and the death toll from the monster storm climbed to at least 26.
- Florida Gov. Rick Scott said 1,500 National Guard members had been activated and he asked President Obama to declare a federal emergency in 26 counties.
- Related stocks: CB, ALL, PGR, TRV, GNRC, NEE, CCL, RCL, DIS, SEAS
Tue, Oct. 4, 3:44 PM
- "We would wait to buy the P&C (re)insurance stocks until after Matthew passes and note the stocks tend to rebound post landfall when damages are not as bad as feared,” says the team at JPMorgan.
- Expected to hit Florida late Thursday, Matthew could dump as much as 10 inches of rain over parts of the state.
- Chubb (CB -0.8%), Allstate (ALL -0.8%), Progressive (PGR -0.6%), Travelers (TRV -0.4%), Universal (UVE -4.5%), HCI Group (HCI -2.6%), United Insurance (UIHC -1.9%), Cincinnati Financial (CINF -0.8%).
Wed, Sep. 7, 9:03 AM
Thu, Jul. 21, 7:31 AM
- Q2 operating income of $649M or $2.20 per share vs. $806M and $2.52 one year ago. At work were $135M more in weather-related losses and a $61M decline in net investment income. Operating ROE of 11.6% down 260 basis points.
- Net written premiums of $6.345B up 3% Y/Y.
- Buybacks reduced the float by 8% Y/Y to 293.6M shares.
- Combined ratio of 93.1% up 230 basis points; underlying combined ratio of 92.3% up 170 basis points.
- Adjusted book value per share of $77.61 up from $73.09 one year ago. Last night's close was $117.01.
- CC at 9 ET
- Previously: The Travelers Companies beats by $0.12, beats on net written premiums (July 21)
- TRV flat premarket
Thu, Jul. 21, 6:58 AM
Wed, Jul. 20, 5:30 PM| Wed, Jul. 20, 5:30 PM | 13 Comments
Mon, Jul. 11, 3:55 PM
- With the stock price above $130, it's a "good time for investors to take their foot off the gas a little," says Charles Sebaski, downgrading Chubb (CB -0.2%) to Market Perform from Outperform. He remains bullish on the long-term prospects, but after a 25% Y/Y run higher, it's time to "wait for a better entry point."
- Checking the rest of BMO's property & casualty coverage, Outperform-rated names are James River Group (JRVR +0.4%), Hanover Insurance (THG +0.5%), Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG +0.6%). Market Perform: AIG (AIG +0.6%), Travelers (TRV +0.1%), Aon (AON +0.6%), Brown & Brown (BRO -0.7%), Marsh & McLennan (MMC).
Tue, Jun. 28, 6:55 PM
- Travelers (NYSE:TRV) topped the Dow with a 3.4% gain in today's trade after BofA Merrill Lynch upgraded shares to Buy from Neutral with a $127 price target, citing the company's U.S. exposure.
- The firm thinks TRV is well positioned given the uncertainties and possible negative consequences of the Brexit decision, since TRV's U.K. and Europe operations constitute a very small part of revenue.
- TRV's main revenue driver is U.S. operations, but BofA believes the company would not be significantly affected by a slowdown in the U.S. economy given the non-discretionary nature of its products.
- The firm also thinks TRV's stock buybacks can provide downside support for the company.
Thu, Apr. 21, 1:32 PM
- It was a rough quarter for property & casualty insurers, in part due to major Texas hail storms - with Travelers (TRV -5.6%), Progressive (PGR -2%), and Allstate (ALL -1.9%) all reporting sizable catastrophe losses tied to that event.
- Catastrophes come and go, but low interest rates are seemingly a permanent fixture in today's world. Travelers' net investment income slipped to $439M in Q1 from $478M a year earlier as the company - perhaps looking to boost income through non-fixed-income investments - saw lower returns thanks to volatile markets.
- Look past the catastrophe loss, says BMO's Charles Sebaski. More concerning is the business-insurance segment which looks to be showing signs of strain from a competitive pricing environment. Travelers reported customers paying 2.2% more at renewal in Q1 vs. a 3.7% increase a year ago.
- Now read: Travelers: What Happened? (April 21)