Trina Solar Follows First Solar Into Elite Sub-$0.40 Per Watt Territory
EnerTuition • 67 Comments
EnerTuition • 67 Comments
Wed, Aug. 24, 11:57 AM
- Solar manufacturers (TAN +0.2%) racing to build bigger and more advanced factories to crank out panels faster and cheaper are about to face a looming glut just as the panels start rolling off the assembly line, according to a Bloomberg report.
- At the same time, demand is slowing in China, the world’s largest market, where the government is reducing subsidies for solar farms commissioned after June 30, which fueled a rush of projects during H1 as developers added as much as 22 GW before the subsidy expired.
- Canadian Solar (CSIQ -2.3%) is building a a 350 MW facility in Brazil, and JinkoSolar (JKS -1.2%) is expanding output from a 450 MW factory that went into operation in Malaysia last year.
- Trina Solar (TSL -0.2%), the world’s largest panel maker, said yesterday that Q3 shipments would fall as much as 6.5% to 1.55-1.65 GW, while it has increased production capacity 7.1% after opening a 500 MW factory in Thailand in March; Yingli Green Energy (YGE -1.7%) said yesterday that it expects shipments to slip as much as 54% in the current quarter.
Tue, Aug. 23, 7:03 AM
Mon, Aug. 22, 5:30 PM
Wed, Aug. 10, 3:25 PM
- Analysts are taken aback by SunPower's (SPWR -29.6%) "guidance bomb" which calls for 2016 gross margins of 9.5%-11.5% instead of 13%-15% amid slowing demand for utility-scale solar projects and more competition in the panel market.
- The surprise is weighing on other stocks in the group: FSLR -7.5%, CSIQ -8.7%, SEDG -9.8%, VSLR -3.1%, JASO -4.5%, SolarCity SCTY -0.9%, SUNE -1.9%, Trina Solar TSL +0.1%.
- At least six firms slammed the stock with downgrades - J.P. Morgan, Oppenheimer, Deutsche Bank, Janney Capital, Credit Suisse and Avondale.
- R.W. Baird, who maintained his Outperform rating but slashed his price target to $21 from $37, said during SPWR's earnings conference call that he felt "blindsided... when you guys have publicly spoken over the past near couple of weeks, we didn’t hear any kind of hint of this at all."
- Credit Suisse’s Patrick Jobin, who cuts his rating to Neutral from Outperform as well as his price target to $12 from $32, says management now faces a credibility problem.
- Not everyone is negative: BofA/Merrill says SPWR's reduced guidance was a disappointment but the stock remains a Buy due to its technology and efficiency advantages, pipeline and backing from global energy giant Total.
Mon, Aug. 1, 3:00 PM
Mon, Aug. 1, 12:50 PM
Fri, Jun. 24, 2:10 PM
- Needham solar analyst Edwin Mok sees significant implications for the industry from the Brexit vote, amplifying bearishness on several names.
- The biggest hit will come for module and inverter makers like First Solar (FSLR -5.3%), along with Chinese makers, including Trina Solar (TSL -4.5%), JinkoSolar (JKS -5.6%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -10.4%) and JA Solar (JASO -4.1%), he writes. A weaker euro means price impact: "Additionally, if Brexit results in slower demand, it could exacerbate module oversupply just as multiple producers are adding capacity. This in turn could also drive prices lower."
- A notable exception for Mok is SolarEdge (SEDG -4.5%), for which he maintains a Buy. Still: "The vast majority of [SEDG] sales are priced in the euro. With limited cost infrastructure in Europe as a natural hedge, weakness in the euro would have a direct impact to SEDG’s bottom line."
- And U.S. firms like SolarCity (SCTY -2.4%), Sunrun (RUN -7.4%) and Vivint (VSLR -4.7%) could benefit with zero international exposure and possibly lower costs of capital.
Thu, Jun. 16, 7:47 AM
- Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) says CFO Teresa Tan is resigning effective July 15 to pursue other personal interests.
- TSL says Xu Ying, VP and strategy assistant to the CEO, will act as interim CFO until a permanent replacement is hired.
- Tan has served as CFO since January 2014; Xu joined TSL in 2006 and has been part of the company's core management team during that period.
Fri, Jun. 3, 3:00 PM
Fri, Jun. 3, 2:11 PM
- Solar stocks are lower today alongside Roth Capital's bearish report on the sector: Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) is off 6%, JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) is 6.4% lower, Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE) is down 2.4%, and JinkoSolar Holdings (NYSE:JKS) is down 2.5%.
- “Heading into H2’16, we are cautious on our entire group of upstream manufacturers given the threat of overcapacity in Q3 as demand in China weakens,” says Roth's Philip Shen.
- The firm downgraded Trina Solar to Neutral with concerns about ASP declines, and lowered its price target to $8 from $12 (now implying 6% upside from today's lowered price). Exposure to the U.S. market might give Trina some protection against the Chinese demand threat.
- Meanwhile, a difference in exposure has Roth very concerned about JA Solar -- also downgraded to Neutral with an $8 price target (now 9% upside from today's lower price). There's limited visibility into second-half bookings, and again: “As a Tier 1 manufacturer, we believe the company will be able to sell all the product it produces. The issue will be one of ASPs, in our view."
- JinkoSolar fares better, maintained at Buy but with a lower price target as well (to $30 from $35, implying 41.7% upside). Margins and improving geographic diversification put the firm in better position than peers, Shen says. Demand's still a worry “given the potential for an air pocket due to the FIT cut in China expected at the end of June."
Thu, May 26, 10:17 AM
- Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) turned down with the market, -0.9%, after a Q1 earnings report that topped expectations but featured slashed guidance for solar power project connections.
- The company now forecasts global project connections of 400-500 MW in 2016, down from initial guidance of 750-850 MW. That includes 15-20% of DG projects in China. It reiterated total photovoltaic module shipment guidance of 6.3-6.55 GW (220-260 MW will be shipped to downstream projects and not recognized as revenue).
- For Q2, it expects to ship 1.5-1.6 GW of PV modules (40-50 MW heading downstream).
- In the first quarter, revenues were down sequentially despite growing nearly 50% Y/Y. Similarly, total module shipments grew 38.7% Y/Y (to 1,423.3 MW) but dropped 19.9% from Q4.
- Net income nearly doubled from the prior year ($26.6M, up 91.3%).
- In Q1, it connected 101.7 MW of utility projects to the grid (24.3 MW in UK, 50 MW in Xinjiang, 27.4 MW in Yunan).
- Press Release
Thu, May 26, 7:04 AM
Wed, May 25, 5:30 PM
Mon, Apr. 25, 7:28 PM
- SunEdison suppliers JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) and Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) are likely not going to see $20.9M owed to them by the alternative-energy flameout, which filed for bankruptcy on Thursday.
- SunEdison says it's going to make payroll and make "certain vendor payments," but that may not apply to trade suppliers, says Credit Suisse's Patrick Jobin.
- It owes JA Solar $10.4M and Trina Solar $10.5M, and: “These are not trivial amounts, potentially impacting full-year earnings 6.6%-11.8% in a ‘worst case’ scenario of not receiving payments."
- Trina's EPS could drop substantially, he says (to $0.32 from $0.41), and JA Solar EPS could drop to $0.43 from $0.61.
- Now read The SunEdison Story: A Few Takeaways »
Thu, Mar. 3, 4:10 PM
- Trina (TSL +0.1%) failed to get much of a lift from a healthy Q4 beat fueled by 1.78GW worth of solar module shipments (+62% Y/Y) and a 19.1% gross margin (up 170 bps Q/Q and 340 bps Y/Y).
- Guidance: Possibly weighing: Trina is guiding for module shipments to drop to 1.37GW-1.45GW in seasonally weaker Q1. Full-year shipments are expected to total 6.3GW-6.55GW, up from 2015's 5.74GW. 750MW-850MW of downstream projects are expected to be connected to the grid, up from 2015's 685.9MW (~1/3 in China). Trina aims to respectively finish 2016 with 6GW and 5GW of annual module and cell manufacturing capacity, up from 5GW and 3.5GW at the end of 2015.
- Financials: Operating expenses rose 26.6% Y/Y in Q4 to $102M, but dropped to 10.6% of revenue from 11.4%. Trina ended 2015 with $660M in cash and $1.44B in bank borrowings. The company had 869.2MW of downstream projects in commercial operation at year's end (847MW) in China, and $531M worth of build-to-sell project assets on its balance sheet.
- Trina's Q4 results, earnings release
Thu, Mar. 3, 5:42 AM
- Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL): Q4 EPS of $0.43 beats by $0.15.
- Revenue of $961.9M (+36.4% Y/Y) beats by $137.66M.
Trina Solar Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of integrated solar-powered products. Its operation comprises production of mono- and multi-crystalline silicon ingots, wafers, cells and related products and the subsequent assembly and marketing of solar modules, which are panels packed with... More
Industry: Semiconductor - Specialized