Trina Solar Follows First Solar Into Elite Sub-$0.40 Per Watt Territory
EnerTuition • 67 Comments
EnerTuition • 67 Comments
Trina Solar Had A Great Quarter, But Margins Are Unsustainable
EnerTuition • 24 Comments
EnerTuition • 24 Comments
Aug. 25, 2015, 9:19 AM| Aug. 25, 2015, 9:19 AM | 7 Comments
Aug. 19, 2015, 1:31 PM
- Solar stocks are underperforming (TAN -4%) as both oil and energy stocks post big losses following an unexpected rise in crude inventories, and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -20%) tumbles in the wake of a Q2 beat and light Q3 guidance. The Nasdaq is down 0.7%, and the S&P 0.8%.
- Major decliners include David Einhorn/Stephen Mandel favorite SunEdison (SUNE -7.2%), which has nosedived since posting Q2 numbers on Aug. 6, and is a day removed from pricing a $650M convertible stock offering. Also selling off: Inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -9.6%), which tumbled last week in spite of an FQ4 beat and strong FQ1 guidance, and China's Trina (TSL -7.8%), which rose slightly yesterday following a Q2 beat and full-year guidance hike.
- Other casualties include prominent U.S. names First Solar (FSLR -4.7%) and SolarCity (SCTY -3.7%), Chinese plays JinkoSolar (JKS -7.9%) and JA Solar (JASO -3.5%), and SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -3.2%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -3.6%).
- Roth's Philip Shen is defending both Canadian and solar YieldCos. "Although yieldcos are no longer in vogue—for now —we fundamentally believe the quality of solar asset cash flows are high and that there is tremendous amount of growth ahead ... [Canadian's] management indicated that its yieldco launch remains on track for a YE'15 or early 2016 launch, and the confidential filing could occur soon ... Hypothetically, if CSIQ were not successful in launching its yieldco, the company would still be able to recycle its capital by selling its assets. Management believes this could drive $1bn of revenue in 2015, and we estimate this could represent ~$2.50 of EPS. "
- Canaccord's Jonathan Dorsheimer: "We continue to believe that Canadian Solar's module business will experience a tightening supply/demand during this bullish end-of-year adoption cycle, which should benefit CSIQ's core operations. Although recent YieldCo and solar volatility have had dramatic valuation impacts, we believe the fundamental PV growth story is still intact."
Aug. 18, 2015, 9:54 AM
- Driving Trina's (NYSE:TSL) Q2 revenue beat: Module shipments rose 20% Q/Q and 30.6% Y/Y to 1.23GW (230.9MW for Trina's own solar projects), soundly above guidance of 1.1GW-1.14GW, and 121.3MW of projects were connected to the grid, above guidance of 65MW-70MW.
- Q3 guidance is for shipments to rise to 1.4GW-1.5GW (170MW-190MW for Trina's projects), and grid connections to rise to 180MW-200MW. Full-year shipment guidance has been hiked to 4.9GW-5.1GW from 4.4GW-4.6GW. Trina notes U.S., Chinese, and Indian solar demand was healthy in Q2, and that Chinese sales are expected to improve further in 2H15.
- Financials: In addition to the top-line growth, EPS benefited from a gross margin of 20%, up from Q1's 18% and Q2 2014's 15.4%. Operating expenses rose 30.4% Y/Y to $84.2M, but fell as a % of revenue to 11.6% from 12.4%. Trina ended Q2 with $616.3M in cash, and $1.02B in bank borrowings.
- Trina still respectively expects to end Q2 with 4.8GW and 3.5GW of module and cell manufacturing capacity. Wafer capacity guidance has been upped to 1.8GW from 1.7GW, and ingot capacity guidance to 2.5GW from 2.2GW. As of the end of Q2, Trina had 358.5MW of electricity-generating solar projects on its books (336.3MW in China).
- Q2 results, PR
Aug. 18, 2015, 9:23 AM
Aug. 18, 2015, 7:02 AM
- Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL): Q2 EPADS of $0.42 beats by $0.17.
- Revenue of $722.94M (+39.2% Y/Y) beats by $71.23M.
Aug. 17, 2015, 5:30 PM
Aug. 5, 2015, 11:54 AM
- Solar stocks are posting outsized gains after First Solar (up 17.3%) beat Q2 estimates, offered above-consensus 2015 guidance, and reported improving margins/cost efficiencies.
- Also: Solar microinverter maker Enphase (up 11%) has jumped in spite of providing soft Q3 guidance to go with mixed Q2 results. Low pre-earnings expectations are helping out.
- In addition to SunPower, SunEdison, and SolarCity (previously covered), gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +7%), Trina (TSL +5.1%), ReneSola (SOL +5.5%), JinkoSolar (JKS +6%), China Sunergy (CSUN +6%), TerraForm Power (TERP +3.1%), and First Solar/SunPower solar project YieldCo 8point3 Energy (CAFD +4.8%).
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is up strongly a day after closing just $0.31 away from a 7-month low of $33.62.
Jul. 9, 2015, 1:28 PM
- Down sharply yesterday, solar stocks (TAN +5.3%) are among today's standouts after Chinese regulators announced a fresh round of aggressive measures aimed at halting a local market crash. Among them: Investors holding 5%+ stakes aren't allowed to sell shares for six months.
- Like their Web/mobile peers, Chinese solar names are surging: Big gainers include Yingli (YGE +5.3%), Daqo (DQ +7.1%), Trina (TSL +5.6%), JA Solar (JASO +10.1%), China Sunergy (CSUN +12.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS +5.2%), Sky Solar (SKYS +10.7%), and ReneSola (SOL +4.8%).
- Major non-Chinese gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +4.1%), Solar3D (SLTD +11.3%), SolarEdge (SEDG +4.4%), and Vivint (VSLR +7.1%).
- Some news: 1) The U.S. DOC has decided to maintain anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese module imports, while slightly modifying its rates. Yingli says it will now have a 21.7% combined rate, down from a 2012 level of 29.2% and the lowest among peers. 2) SolarEdge has struck a deal with #2 U.S. residential solar installer SunRun (RUN - about to go public) to be SunRun's "preferred supplier of optimized inverter solutions." SolarEdge also sells to SolarCity and Vivint. 3) Sky Solar has obtained an $85M loan to finance a Uruguay solar project.
- Update (1:50PM ET): Yingli is now down 4.9%, thanks to a report stating the company has halted production after talks with creditors broke down.
Jul. 8, 2015, 2:46 PM
- Solar stocks are seeing big losses once more today. The Nasdaq is down 1.7%, the S&P is down 1.5%, and worries about the economic effects of a Chinese stock market crash are easy to find. Those less concerned make note of China's high savings rate, and the relatively low portion of Chinese household assets invested in equities.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is now down 32% from its April peak, and roughly flat on the year.
- Chinese firms Trina (TSL -5.7%), JinkoSolar (JKS -8.9%), Yingli (YGE -4.9%), ReneSola (SOL -6%) China Sunergy (CSUN -5.1%), and Daqo (DQ -4.2%) are adding to yesterday's losses.
- Major non-Chinese decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -7%), SolarEdge (SEDG -9.9%), Vivint (VSLR -4.4%), and Solar3D (SLTD -8.3%). Enphase is off sharply following a JPMorgan downgrade. SolarEdge and Solar3D are now respectively down 23% and 18% on the week.
Jul. 7, 2015, 1:32 PM
- While most major North American solar names are down moderately or trading higher, Chinese firms are seeing heavy losses as a domestic rout in equities continues. Many Chinese Web and mobile stocks are seeing similar drops; margin calls and general panic selling appear to be contributing.
- Major decliners include Trina (TSL -9.1%), Yingli (YGE -10.2%), Daqo (DQ -14.6%), China Sunergy (CSUN -13.8%), JA Solar (JASO -7.7%), JinkoSolar (JKS -7%), and ReneSola (SOL -6.6%).
- Solar ETFs have felt the impact. TAN -2.7%. KWT -4%.
- Yesterday: Solar stocks off sharply after oil plunge, Greek "no" vote, Chinese tech selloff
Jun. 29, 2015, 11:39 AM
- Solar stocks are among the top decliners on a morning the Nasdaq is down 1.4%, thanks to a global selloff in equities triggered by Greek news. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -4.1%) is now down 21% from an April peak of $50.00; it's still up 16% YTD, after having tumbled in 2H14.
- Major decliners include U.S. firms SolarCity (SCTY -4.9%), First Solar (FSLR -4.3%), SunPower (SPWR -4.2%), SunEdison (SUNE -5.1%), Vivint (VSLR -7%), and RGS Energy (RGSE -8.2%), Chinese firms JinkoSolar (JKS -7.4%), Yingli (YGE -6.4%), China Sunergy (CSUN -8.3%), ReneSola (SOL -5.5%), and Trina (TSL -5.4%), and Israeli inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -5%).
- Some news: 1) SunEdison and its TerraForm Power YieldCo have closed their $350M acquisition of Atlantic Power's 521MW wind plant portfolio. 2) SolarCity, vita its homebuilder partner program, has launched new energy storage and fixed-rate solar electricity pricing options in California (easily its largest market). The electricity, provided via 20-year deals, is said to feature a cost "equivalent to the lowest standard residential electricity rates of California's largest utilities." 3) SolarEdge is partnering with system provider Andalay on a solution that allows SolarEdge's optimizers to be quickly integrated with Andalay's solar modules.
- Last Thursday: Home solar installer/electricity provider Sunrun files for IPO
- Update: Also possibly hurting the group: A Supreme Court ruling blocking EPA regulations meant to limit emissions from coal power plants. The court ruled regulations need to take costs into account.
Jun. 17, 2015, 1:08 PM
- Trina (TSL -0.3%) and India's Welspun Energy plan to invest $500M to build a 2GW solar product plant in either the western state of Gujarat, or the southern state of Andhra Pradesh. Construction is expected to take about 18 months.
- The plant aims to both service local demand - India has set an ambitious goal of having 100GW of solar capacity by 2022 - and help Trina sidestep U.S./EU tariffs and export restrictions on Chinese-made modules. Trina SVP Zhiguo Zhu: "We’ll use Indian products to export to the U.S. or even Europe ... Next year, India will become our third-largest market. In future, it could become our biggest after China."
- For reference, Trina forecast last month it will respectively have 4.8GW and 3.5GW of module and cell production capacity by year's end, up from 4GW and 3.2GW at the end of Q1.
Jun. 10, 2015, 2:38 PM
- The Nasdaq is up 1.4% and the S&P 1.3%, and Chinese and Internet solar names aren't missing out on the fun. The Guggenheim China Tech ETF (CQQQ +0.9%) is up 20% YTD, as is the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +2.2%).
- The gains come even though the Shanghai exchange fell fractionally overnight, following news MSCI is delaying (but not abandoning) plans to include Chinese A-shares in its global benchmark index. The more volatile (some argue frothier) Shenzhen index rose 2%.
- Major Internet gainers include ChinaCache (CCIH +20.2%), YY (YY +5.1%), NQ Mobile (NQ +6.3%), Bitauto (BITA +4.4%), Autohome (ATHM +6.1%), Sky-mobi (MOBI +6.4%), 51job (JOBS +10.9%), Xunlei (XNET +11.3%), Leju (LEJU +6.4%),and KongZhong (KONG +6.8%). Earlier today, Renren and 21Vianet joined the ranks of Chinese tech firms to announce they've received going-private offers, and LightInTheBox disclosed a major investment from shoe retailer Aokang.
- Solar gainers include Trina (TSL +3.7%), JinkoSolar (JKS +3.2%), ReneSola (SOL +3.8%), Daqo (DQ +3.3%), and China-exposed Canadian Solar (CSIQ +3.8%). U.S. peers First Solar and SunPower are also doing well after setting IPO pricing for their solar project YieldCo.
- Last Friday: Chinese Internet stocks surge as Shanghai tops 5K
Jun. 5, 2015, 1:26 PM
- Solar stocks are doing well (TAN +1.1%) on a quiet morning for equities after JA Solar disclosed a going-private offer from its CEO, and beaten-down Yingli provided mixed Q1 results (revenue beat, EPS missed) and better-than-feared guidance.
- Aside from JA/Yingli, gainers include First Solar (FSLR +3.4%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ +3.6%), JinkoSolar (JKS +4.1%), ReneSola (SOL +10.8%), China Sunergy (CSUN +5.4%), Trina (TSL +3%), Sky Solar (SKYS +2.9%), and Daqo (DQ +4.2%).
- Chinese solar names might also be benefiting from an overnight rally in Shanghai (see Chinese Internet stocks). First Solar, meanwhile, has seen a (questionable) rumor about a Wal-Mart buyout offer surface.
May 21, 2015, 1:20 PM
- Trina (NYSE:TSL) has surged above $12 after beating Q1 estimates on the back of 1.026GW of module shipments (-7% Q/Q and +84% Y/Y, and blowing away guidance of 840MW-870MW). Also: Trina expects shipments to rise to 1.1GW-1.14GW in Q2 (150MW-170MW for Trina's own downstream projects).
- Rising Chinese, Japanese, and U.S. sales fueled the Y/Y module growth; European and Japanese sales rose Q/Q, while Chinese sales fell due to seasonality. The company is reiterating full-year module shipment guidance of 4.4GW-4.6GW, and 700MW-750MW of project grid connections. Module and cell production capacity is expected to rise to 4.8GW and 3.5GW by year's end from 4GW and 3.2GW at the end of Q1.
- Financials: Gross margin was 18%, +230 bps Q/Q and -260 bps Y/Y; the Q/Q growth stemmed from cost cuts and a mix shift towards higher-ASP markets, while the Y/Y drop was due to lower ASPs. Operating expenses rose 33.6% Y/Y to $71.2M (compares with 25.5% rev. growth). Trina ended Q1 with $682.9M in cash, and $912.2M in bank borrowings.
- Q1 results, PR
May 21, 2015, 9:16 AM
Trina Solar Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of integrated solar-powered products. Its operation comprises production of mono- and multi-crystalline silicon ingots, wafers, cells and related products and the subsequent assembly and marketing of solar modules, which are panels packed with... More
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