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TWTR vs. ETF Alternatives
Twitter Inc is a global platform for public self-expression and conversation in real time. It provides a way for people to stay informed about their interests, discover what is happening in their world and interact directly.
Friday, Feb 72:40 PM
Friday, Feb 72:40 PM| 20 Comments
- Down 24% yesterday due to the disappointing engagement/user growth metrics provided in its Q4 report, Twitter (TWTR +8.9%) is recouping a portion of its losses today. With 32.7M shares shorted as of Jan. 15, it's likely many shorts are taking profits.
- Meanwhile, Facebook (FB +2.9%) is again surging to new highs even as LinkedIn sells off due to weak guidance. Shares are up 20% since the company posted a big Q4 beat.
- Though reiterating a Sell on Twitter, Pivotal Research's Brian Wieser suggests Twitter is misunderstood by those making direct Facebook comparisons (previous), and that the former is to the latter as radio is to TV.
- Twitter is "a marketing vehicle capable of satisfying different kinds of marketing goals," writes Wieser. Whereas Facebook provides a better environment for marketers to form relationships with consumers and engage in "immersive brand-building," Twitter provides immediacy, a greater proportion of out-of-home mobile activity, and "a greater capacity for in-your-face messaging."
- He still considers Twitter overvalued, but believes its Q4 numbers show it's proving quite successful at gaining traction with a variety of marketers.
Thursday, Feb 612:46 PM
Thursday, Feb 610:03 AM
Thursday, Feb 610:03 AM| 20 Comments
- Twitter (TWTR -18.7%) analysts, already more bearish than bullish going into the company's Q4 report, have become even moreso afterwards, as worries about Timeline views and MAU growth fully overshadow improving ad monetization. UBS, Sterne Agee, and Atlantic Equities have moved from neutral to bearish ratings, and Stifel from Buy to Hold.
- Susquehanna (Market Perform, PT cut to $48 from $55) thinks Twitter's MAU growth (9M Q/Q) missed consensus by 8M. The firm also notes Facebook added 63M MAUs in a quarter when it was Twitter's size (in Q3 '09), and added 4x as many as Twitter in Q4. Likewise, LinkedIn (nearly the same size as Twitter) added 21M users in Q3.
- UBS observes Twitter still traded at 30x 2014E EV/sales (vs. 13x for Facebook) even after yesterday evening's selloff, and predicts efforts to improve engagement/user growth will require higher R&D spend.
- Deutsche (Buy, PT increased to $65 from $50) remains optimistic about Twitter's ability to eventually achieve Facebook-like scale, but thinks "bears win near-term" and admits Twitter's user growth/engagement challenge is tougher than the monetization challenge Facebook dealt with following its IPO.
- More on Twitter's earnings. CC transcript.
Thursday, Feb 69:15 AM
Wednesday, Feb 56:03 PM
Wednesday, Feb 56:03 PM| 7 Comments
- With Twitter (TWTR) having just reported it saw declining Timeline views (on a Q/Q basis) and slowing MAU growth in Q4, CEO Dick Costolo has admitted on the CC Twitter needs to become easier for new users to grasp.
- Among Costolo's proposed remedies: Enabling the discovery of content based on topics, and adding more conversational features and "rich media" content. Twitter has already made some changes along these lines.
- Concerns that Twitter's relatively steep learning curve have led to high rates of churn have been around for a while. The company's ended Q4 with roughly 1/5 as many MAUs as Facebook.
- In response to a question about the Timeline view slump, Costolo suggests the metric provides an incomplete picture of Twitter engagement, since interactions per Timeline view continue to grow. He claims retweets and favorites are up over 35% following recent UI changes.
- Costolo and CFO Mike Gupta insist their company is just scratching the surface when it comes to ad monetization, and particularly highlighted its e-commerce opportunities. But they also insist Twitter will take a conservative approach to ad load for the sake of the user experience.
- CC live blogs: I, II
- Q4 results, guidance/details, slides
Wednesday, Feb 54:23 PM
Wednesday, Feb 54:23 PM| 39 Comments
- Twitter (TWTR) is guiding for Q1 revenue of $230M-$240M (above a $215.2M consensus) and adjusted EBITDA of $10M-$16M. Full-year guidance is for revenue of $1.15B-$1.2B (above a $1.13B consensus) and adjusted EBITDA of $150M-$180M. Full-year capex is expected to total $330M-$390M.
- One troubling datapoint: Twitter's Timeline views fell 7% Q/Q in Q4 to 148B. On a Y/Y basis, views were up 26%, but that's a much slower pace than Q3's 50%.
- Twitter's revenue growth accelerated to 116% Y/Y in Q4 from 105% in Q3, as the launch of several major new products provided a big lift to monetization. Ad revenue +121% to $220M, data licensing/other +80% to $23M.
- Twitter's ad revenue per 1K timeline views for seasonally strong Q4 was $1.49, up 54% Q/Q and 76% Y/Y. International revenue tripled Y/Y, but still only accounts for 27% of total revenue; Twitter's international user base is more than 3x as large as its U.S. base.
- Monthly active users (MAUs) totaled 241M at the end of Q4, +4% Q/Q and +30% Y/Y. Mobile MAUs +37% Y/Y to 184M.
- Mobile accounted for over 75% of ad sales, up from 70% in Q3 and 65% in Q2.
- CC at 5PM ET. Q4 results, PR
Monday, Feb 34:06 PM
Monday, Feb 34:06 PM| Comment!
- Upbeat notes from RBC and Wedbush have helped Twitter (TWTR +1.2%) close higher on a brutal day for equities. The performance comes two days ahead of Twitter's first earnings report as a public company.
- RBC's Mark Mahaney (Outperform) calls Twitter's Q4 consensus "achievable," and respectively forecasts Y/Y ad sales and monthly active user growth of 121% and 38%. He adds a monthly ad survey was positive - 40% of respondents said they upped their Twitter ad spend over the last 6 months, and 60% expect to do it over the next year - and thinks Facebook's strong Q4 results are "broadly positive" for Twitter (investors seemed to agree).
- Cantor's Youssef Squali, while reiterating a Sell, also expects strong Q4 results. He suspects Twitter (70% of Q3 ad revenue from mobile) is benefiting from mobile momentum similar to Facebook's.
- Meanwhile, Twitter is continuing its data-licensing efforts in the wake of last week's CNN/Dataminr deal. The company is partnering with music industry firm 300 Entertainment uncover music-related insights from its data firehose.
- Also: Though it's not working directly with Twitter, Thomson Reuters (TRI) is now including including Twitter sentiment analysis in its Eikon market analysis/trading platform.
Thursday, Jan 309:10 AM|Thursday, Jan 309:10 AM| 1 Comment
Wednesday, Jan 294:48 PM
Wednesday, Jan 294:48 PM| 1 Comment
- Several high-flying Internet stocks are getting a lift from Facebook's big Q4 beat, which was accompanied by news the social networking giant's mobile ad sales rose ~4x Y/Y and now account for over half of its ad sales.
- TWTR +4.1% AH. LNKD +2.6%. YELP +2.2%. Z +2%. GRPN +1.6%. SINA +0.7%.
- Google reports tomorrow. Twitter and Yelp are due up on Feb. 5, and LinkedIn on Feb. 6.
Monday, Jan 2712:44 PM
Monday, Jan 2712:44 PM| 16 Comments
- U.S. and Chinese Internet stocks are adding to last week's big losses, as investors continue taking profits following major 2013 gains. Chinese stocks were hit last week by an emerging markets selloff, weak PMI data, and an SEC ban (pending appeal) on audits from the Chinese units of big-4 U.S. accounting firms.
- Twitter (TWTR -8.2%), the company bears are most likely to point to when arguing a new Internet stock bubble has formed, is headlining the U.S. decliners. Shares are still up 25% from their post-IPO opening trade of $45.10.
- Other U.S. decliners: GOOG -3.1%. FB -2.9%. YELP -5.3%. Z -5.1%. LNKD -4.3%. P -3.2%. ANGI -4.1%. ZNGA -3.1%. GRPN -3.1%.
- Chinese decliners: BIDU -2.9%. CCIH -19%. BITA -14.6%. CTRP -7.4%. NQ -7.9%. LONG -9.4%. DANG -7.3%. SOHU -4.3%. GOMO -5.8%. SINA -3.3%. QUNR -7.7%. SFUN -5.4%. WBAI -7.5%. RENN -5%.
- Internet/social media ETFs: FDN, PNQI, SOCL
Monday, Jan 137:20 AM
Monday, Jan 137:20 AM| 12 Comments
- Twitter (TWTR) is ahead 3% premarket as Goldman's Heath Terry boosts his price target on the Buy-rated stock to $65 from $46.
- "Over the course of the past quarter we have seen significant acceleration in the pace of Twitter's product innovation," says Terry, "with nearly 4x the number of enhancements designed to drive user growth, engagement, and incremental monetization as in any prior quarter ... we believe this accelerating pace is more indicative of the company’s ongoing capabilities now that site stability issues have been resolved."
Thursday, Jan 91:50 PM
Thursday, Jan 91:50 PM| 12 Comments
- Cowen's John Blackledge is the latest analyst to issue a bearish opinion on Twitter (TWTR -4.9%), starting coverage with an Underperform and $32 PT. After opening higher, shares are adding to their recent losses, and are now down 17% on the week.
- Blackledge (unsurprisingly) takes aim at Twitter's valuation, and also reports a survey of 50 ad buyers suggests Twitter's ad ROI is worse than Facebook (FB -1.7%) and LinkedIn's (LNKD +2.3%). ~60% of respondents claimed Facebook delivered the best ad ROI, ~25% said LinkedIn did so, and only ~5% picked Twitter.
- RBC offered a more upbeat take last month, stating 40% of polled Twitter advertisers have seen improved ROIs over the prior six months, and that a similar number have increased their Twitter spend.
- Much like Facebook in 2012/early 2013, Twitter has been busy rolling out a barrage of new ad products, as it works to provide better targeting and improve its ad revenue per 1K timeline views from a Q3 level of just $0.97 ($2.58 in the U.S., $0.36 internationally).
- Cantor and Morgan Stanley have already cut shares to Sell this week, with each naming valuation among its reasons for being bearish.
Wednesday, Jan 88:07 AM
Wednesday, Jan 88:07 AM| 6 Comments
- "While historically we've reserved our Sell rating to business models with structural challenges, we find Twitter's (TWTR) valuation to be excessive and currently see materially more downside than upside," says analyst Youssef Squali, cutting the stock to a Sell while maintaining a price target of $32.
- Twitter, he says, is expensive even compared to a number of other high-flying Internet IPOs. Its 30.8x EV/Revenue multiple compares to about 15x for Google, 16.5x for LinkedIn, 8.5x for Facebook, and 4x for Yelp shortly after they came public.
- Sqauli also notes the estimates of analysts whose banks were involved in the IPO are lower than those who were not involved.
- Lock-ups? The first expiration is on February 15 when 9.9M shares by non-execs will be eligible for sale. A much larger expiration is coming in early May when 454.3M shares could become available.
- The stock's off 2.9% premarket.
Tuesday, Jan 75:50 PM
Tuesday, Jan 75:50 PM| 16 Comments
- Twitter's (TWTR -7.3%) roller-coaster ride continues: After rallying back to the $70 range last week, shares are down 13% from Friday's intraday high of $70.43, as enthusiasm about Twiiter's long-term potential, concerns about its sky-high valuation (shared by many analysts), and a heavy short interest continue making for a volatile mix.
- The company has announced after the close its first earnings report as a public company will arrive on the afternoon of Feb. 5. Twitter's active user growth (apparently missed the company's 2013 target) will likely be in focus, as will its efforts to improve its soft international ad sales.
Monday, Jan 69:11 AM
Monday, Jan 69:11 AM| Comment!
- Gainers: SEED +29%. PPHM +28%. EONC +18%. OXBT +18%. CPRX +13%. CBMX +13%. SCTY +11%. SOL +10%. XPO +10%. ETRM +9%. RMBS +9%. GRO +8%. PACR +8%. SIRI +8%. PXLW +7%. LIVE +7%. ATHX +7%. RSOL +7%. P +6%. CPST +6%. FRO +5%. TSL +5%.
- Losers: SCSS -13%. GYRO -8%. SRPT -7%. CAMT -6%. TWTR -6%. ARIA -6%. CHTP -5%.
Monday, Jan 67:57 AM
Monday, Jan 67:57 AM| 4 Comments
- With the competition for online advertising revenue intensifying, TV ad budgets are more likely to go to YouTube and Facebook first, rather than smaller platforms like Twitter (TWTR), says Morgan Stanley, downgrading the stock to Sell.
- The price target of $33, notes the team, would have the stock trading at 14x revenue and 84x 2015 estimated EBITDA.
- "Where we could be wrong": Near-term estimates may be conservative, says the team, meaning revisions following late January/early February Q4 results could provide a near-term boost to the stock.
- Shares -4.1% premarket
- View all 1 replies
Master Che:: 56.18 is a key resistance pivot, not reaching it is immediately very bearish or a failure near it (down to 49.75)
- View all 4 replies
arleta:: don't you think it will test the 50$ barrier again ?
Volumewatchers.com:: Don't know. But, the low volume suggest that around $54.40. So, will be tough to test the $50 again.