Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 1x Shares ETF(TYBS)- NYSEARCA
  • Thu, Sep. 22, 11:13 AM
    • Up as high as 1.73% yesterday, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen all the way to 1.62% in wake of the FOMC meeting. TLT +0.9%, TBT -1.8%
    • This may not be a U.S. thing though - rates are really diving across the pond, with the yield on the 10-year German Bund today down a full 9 basis points to -0.08%, and Spanish, Italian, and U.K. yields off similar amounts.
    • Meanwhile Fed Fund futures aren't yet totally buying the Fed's near-promise of a rate hike this year. The January contract at 99.46 suggests about a 60% chance of a move before 2017.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Thu, Sep. 22, 11:13 AM | 5 Comments
  • Wed, Sep. 21, 10:37 AM
    • Think of the BOJ's new "yield-curve control" policy as effectively capping the yield on the 10-year JGB at 0.00%, says RBS Securities' John Briggs.
    • This means that in order for 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to rise, the spread between Treasurys and JGBs will need to widen. Put another way, higher Treasury yields will require that U.S. economic fundamentals overpower Japanese investor demand for Treasurys.
    • Yields can fall a lot easier though - whether by deteriorating economic fundamentals or even greater Japanese demand.
    • The U.S. 10-year yield today is up 1 basis point to 1.70%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Wed, Sep. 21, 10:37 AM | 4 Comments
  • Fri, Sep. 16, 8:00 AM
    • The team has moved to underweight on bonds over the next three months, and expects the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to hit 2% by year-end (currently 1.66%). Yields on 10-year German and Japanese paper are forecast to hit the towering levels of 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.
    • Goldman: "The Goldilocks scenario from July and August, with anchored global rates and better-than-expected macro data, has faded. Moreover, since mid-August pressure on commodity prices has increased again."
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, JGBS, JGBD, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, BUNL, JGBL, BUNT, LBND, GGOV, JGBT, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS, JGBB
    | Fri, Sep. 16, 8:00 AM | 5 Comments
  • Thu, Sep. 15, 8:37 AM
    | Thu, Sep. 15, 8:37 AM
  • Tue, Sep. 13, 2:10 PM
    • There's no flight-to-safety bid for Treasurys as equity markets tumble today. In fact, it's just the opposite, with the 10-year yield leaping by another seven basis points to 1.73%. TLT -1%, TBT +2%
    • The rout is global in nature, with the German 10-year Bund yielding all of 7.6 basis points after a 3.8 bp rise today. Even the 10-year JGB yield is threatening to go positive.
    • The move isn't necessarily about tighter Fed policy as short-term rate traders are pricing in very little chance of a rate hike next week. and only a 50% chance of a move by year-end.
    • U.S. stock indices are at session lows, with the Dow off 1.4%, the S&P 500 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, JGBS, JGBD, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, BUNL, JGBL, BUNT, LBND, GGOV, JGBT, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS, JGBB
    | Tue, Sep. 13, 2:10 PM | 54 Comments
  • Thu, Sep. 1, 10:21 AM
    • The headline PMI fell to 49.4 in August versus July's 52.6 and expectations for just a small drop to 52.2. New Orders led the unexpected decline, dropping a full 7.8 points to 49.1.
    • Production dipped 5.8 points to 49.6 and Supplier Deliveries edged lower to 50.9. Backlogs fell 2.5 points to 45.5, and Prices dropped 2 points to 53.0.
    • Treasury yields are mostly ignoring the news, with the 10-year yield still higher by 1.6 basis points to 1.598%. Short-term rate markets are also brushing the data aside, continuing to predict a slight chance of a September rate hike and about a 60% chance of a move sometime before year-end.
    • Full report
    • TLT -0.25%, TBT +0.5%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Thu, Sep. 1, 10:21 AM | 33 Comments
  • Wed, Aug. 31, 5:23 AM
    • U.S. Treasuries are set for their largest monthly loss since June 2015 after a slew of hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials almost doubled the probability of a September rate hike to 34% in the futures market.
    • Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Tuesday that any rate hike will be data dependent, having previously pointed to employment figures on Friday as being of key importance.
    • Regional Fed chiefs for Chicago, Boston and Minneapolis are due to speak later today.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Wed, Aug. 31, 5:23 AM | 4 Comments
  • Thu, Aug. 4, 12:28 PM
    • The Bank of England this morning cut its benchmark bank rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%, and restarted its dormant asset purchase program. In addition to government bond purchases, the bank will also be buying corporate paper.
    • At his post-meeting press conference, Governor Mark Carney said the bank's estimates for GDP growth have come way down, and for the unemployment rate way up since the Brexit vote. He says there's more room for additional stimulus as necessary.
    • The news sent the FTSE higher, and the pound way lower. The 10-year Gilt yield tumbled 16 basis points to a record-low 0.647%. The 10-year Bund yield dropped six basis points to -0.094%.
    • The U.S. 10-year yield is down five basis points to 1.493%. Tomorrow morning brings the July employment report.
    • TLT +1%, TBT -2%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Thu, Aug. 4, 12:28 PM | 2 Comments
  • Wed, Jul. 20, 2:04 PM
    • With much of the globe's "safe" sovereign debt trading at negative yields, investors worldwide have been snapping up long-dated Treasurys whose yields positively tower over the alternatives.
    • It's a dangerous game, says Oksana Aronov of JPMorgan, noting the real yield on the U.S. 10-year is negative, the lowest since 1980, and actually lower than similarly-dated Japanese paper.
    • "We’re seeing this tremendous flow into the bond space at a time when the risks are, frankly, unprecedented,” Aronov tells Bloomberg. "There is no free lunch, and on a real basis, you are really not buying something that's of tremendous value."
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is higher by 2.75 basis points today to 1.582%.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Wed, Jul. 20, 2:04 PM | 8 Comments
  • Tue, Jul. 19, 9:10 AM
    • With markets having shrugged off the Brexit vote, Fed officials are growing more confident about raising rates before year-end, and possibly as early as September, writes Jon Hilsenrath.
    • Though no change is nearly assured at the late-July FOMC meeting, the policy statement may signal belief the economy is on more solid ground than when the dovish call was made at the June meeting.
    • That could be a surprise for traders, who have currently priced in only about a 12% chance of a September Fed move.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 1.6 bps this morning to 1.57%. TLT +0.4%, TBT -0.8%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Tue, Jul. 19, 9:10 AM | 18 Comments
  • Fri, Jul. 15, 10:19 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield continues to make its way back to its pre-Brexit level, up another five basis points to 1.59%. Helping the move today were stronger-than-expected reads on June retail sales and inflation.
    • The 10-year was in the 1.70% area prior to the vote, and dropped to about 1.35% in the days after. TLT -0.7%, TBT +1.4%
    • Short-term rate futures markets are again pricing in a sizable chance of a rate hike this year, roughly 40% at the moment. At one point in early late June, the chance of a rate hike had been pushed all the way back to 2018.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Fri, Jul. 15, 10:19 AM | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Jul. 12, 1:31 PM
    • With Europe having mostly erased its post-Brexit declines, and the U.K. and U.S. both higher today than they were prior to the vote, flight-to-safety types are headed for the exits.
    • The U.S. 10-year yield is up by another nine basis points today to 1.52%, its highest level this month. The two-year yield is up five bps to 0.685%, its strongest since the vote. TLT -1.7%, TBT +3.4%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Tue, Jul. 12, 1:31 PM | 6 Comments
  • Fri, Jul. 8, 11:25 AM
    • The Fed is not likely to see today’s jobs report (I, II) as a reason to raise short-term interest rates at this month's meeting, but the numbers do increase the chances of a rate hike as early as September, WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath writes.
    • The pace of job creation appears to have cooled in recent months, despite the strong June results - for Q2 as a whole, payroll growth averaged 147K/month, down from 196K in Q1 and 229K in 2015 - but the slowdown was not as severe as officials feared a month ago.
    • Hilsenrath believes Fed officials now will want to see follow-through and make sure the economy is really on its feet after a volatile H1, and will want to be sure markets are stable in the wake of the Brexit vote.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, DLBL, TYBS, VUSTX
    | Fri, Jul. 8, 11:25 AM | 3 Comments
  • Wed, Jul. 6, 8:18 AM
    • "As a pension fund, you’ve got to be scared that rates could actually go lower,” says Shyam Rajan, head of U.S. rates strategy at BAML. With the $3T U.S. corporate pension industry needing to throw its rate assumptions out the window, retirement funds could add a great deal of fuel to the current bond market rally.
    • Pension funds currently have just 6% of their assets in Treasurys, half of the peak seen in the 1980s.
    • Rajan: “There’s a perceived permanence to this rate rally. If you were assuming that rates were going to go back to 3 percent, that’s not going to happen anytime soon.”
    • The 10-year yield is down by another 4.4 basis points today to a new record low of 1.333%. TLT +0.8%, TBT -1.6%
    • ETFs: TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Wed, Jul. 6, 8:18 AM | 3 Comments
  • Tue, Jul. 5, 3:34 AM
    • Treasuries began a holiday-shortened week right where they left off, with 30-year yields sliding to an unprecedented 2.15% and the 10-year falling to a record 1.378%.
    • "It's quite difficult to judge how low is too low for yields amid a slower outlook for global growth," said Tomohisa Fujiki, strategist at BNP Paribas. "Prior to the U.K. referendum, this [Friday's] payrolls report was considered one of the most important events to watch."
    • According to fed fund futures data, the probability of a U.S. rate hike by year-end now stands at 12%, from 59% a month ago.
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Tue, Jul. 5, 3:34 AM | 3 Comments
  • Fri, Jul. 1, 5:09 AM
    • The U.K.'s 10-year government yield sank another 6 basis points overnight to a fresh low of 0.81% after Mark Carney suggested the BoE could cut rates this summer as the economy suffers from "post-traumatic stress disorder."
    • Gilt yields on short-term paper also fell into negative territory for the first time.
    • U.S. Treasury prices are joining the party ahead of the New York open, with the 10-year yield dropping 11 bps to a decade low of 1.378% this morning.
    • ETFs: TLT, TBT, TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, SBND, UBT, DLBS, TLO, LBND, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
    | Fri, Jul. 1, 5:09 AM | 10 Comments
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