Albert Alfonso • 14 Comments
Yesterday, 2:02 PM
Tue, Aug. 23, 5:35 PM
Mon, Aug. 22, 5:36 PM
Thu, Aug. 4, 10:22 AM
- CF Industries (CF -13.3%) falls as much as 14% at the open for its biggest one-day decline in eight years, after Q2 earnings fell 87% Y/Y to come in far below expectations.
- CF says Q2 sales fell to $1.13B from $1.31B a year ago due to lower average selling prices across all segments, hurt by continued oversupply of nitrogen driven by global nitrogen capacity additions, but sales volume of more than 4.5M product tons achieved a quarterly record.
- CF says the demand outlook for the 2017 fertilizer season is positive, but abundant nitrogen supply will continue to pressure global pricing as new ammonia, urea and UAN production come on-line in H2 2016.
- CF also says it is suspending its share buyback program to preserve cash.
- Fertilizer peer Agrium (AGU -2.2%) also is lower following in-line Q2 earnings; the company issues downside guidance for FY 2016, now seeing EPS of $5.00-$5.30 vs. $5.38 analyst consensus estimate and down from prior guidance of $5.25-$6.25, due to an expected weak pricing environment for all nutrients.
- Also: POT -2.4%, MOS -3.8%, UAN -1.3%.
Thu, Jun. 23, 8:58 AM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) +3.2% and Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) +2.6% premarket following reports that Belarus may cooperate with Russian potash producer Uralkali for the first time since a dispute ended the alliance between the world's two biggest potash producers in 2013, triggering a fall in global prices that have not yet fully recovered.
- Belarus Pres. Lukashenko hinted at cooperation during an event in Minsk but did not discuss his conditions; the previous joint venture was based in Minsk, at that time a crucial condition for Belarus and the main concern for Uralkali.
- Lukashenko also said Belaruskali had signed a new potash supply contract with India, although the company later said it was still finalizing the deal; aside from Belaruskali and Uralkali, POT, MOS and Germany's K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) supply potash to India.
- Other relevant tickers: AGU, CF, IPI, ICL, CNHI, SQM, UAN, IPHS, EVGN
Tue, Jun. 14, 2:02 PM
Thu, Apr. 14, 11:16 AM
- Potash (POT -2.4%), Mosaic (MOS -3.5%), Intrepid Potash (IPI -8.2%) and CF Industries (CF -1.3%) are downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Cowen, which cites the risk of a further deterioration in the grain environment and the belief that nutrient prices and margins still have room to fall.
- Cowen expects an increase in U.S. corn acreage to 93.6M acres from 88M acres, plus anticipated gains in Brazilian and Argentine output, to cause a sizeable drop in corn prices and 2017 corn acreage, which would weigh on ag company shares.
- The firm cuts its price targets for POT to $14 from $16, MOS to $23 from $32, and CF to $25 from $44; Agrium (AGU -3.7%) and CVR Partners (UAN -3.2%) are maintained with Market Perform ratings but with reduced price targets of $86 and $8, respectively.
- Now read Potash Corp. credit rating cut at S&P on fertilizer market weakness
Tue, Mar. 15, 12:49 PM
- Rentech (RTK +4.4%) rises after GSO Capital Partners agrees to provide $6M in additional short-term liquidity if required prior to the closing of the pending merger between Rentech Nitrogen Partners (RNF -1.7%) and CVR Partners (UAN -2.8%).
- GSO also agrees to revise its existing waiver and amendment agreement with RTK, which the company says is intended to enable the merger to close without regard to whether RTK receives units in CVR sufficient to repay a fixed amount of preferred stock and debt held by GSO.
- Separately, RNF says it sold its Pasadena, Tex., facility to Pasadena Commodities International, the plant's long-time distributor for ammonium sulfate.
Nov. 10, 2015, 3:19 PM
- Rentech (RTK -30.3%) is routed after reporting a Q3 loss of $1.38/share on revenues that came in about a third short of expectations.
- RTK warns that it will need either the proceeds anticipated from the merger of Rentech Nitrogen (RNF -5.3%) with CVR Partners (UAN -0.6%) and the sale of its Pasadena facility or other sources of cash by the early months of 2016 to fund its operating and investing needs; in the event the merger and Pasadena sale are delayed, RTK says it would need alternative sources of cash to fund its operations leading to the closing of the merger.
- RTK says it is in discussions to arrange additional borrowing and/or to pledge or sell some of the 3.1M unpledged units of RNF it owns, but the outcome of such discussions is not yet known.
Aug. 5, 2013, 12:35 PM
- CVR Partners (UAN -4.7%) hits a 52-week low in an apparent delayed reaction to Q2 results that included sharply lower FY 2013 guidance to reflect lower fertilizer prices available in H2 as well as the impact of an unexpected plant shutdown.
- Blogger Chris Damas forecasts a reduction in FY 2013 cash distributions from $2.15-$2.45/unit to $1.80-$1.90; since $1.19 was paid in H1, it would indicate a combined Q3-Q4 2013 distribution of $0.61-$0.81/unit.
- Damas calculates CVR's Q3 ammonia production will come in at 96K tons vs. 104K a year ago.
Jul. 31, 2013, 2:21 PM
- Although some analysts hold out hope that potash producers Uralkali and Belaruskali can settle their differences and reverse the damage from yesterday's breakup, Uralkali's CEO says it's not happening although he could consider joining with Belarus in a Swiss-based trading company.
- He believes new global potash projects will be delayed, and sees global potash demand rising to 59M-60M tons in 2014 from 54M-55M tons in 2013.
- Separately, Potash (POT -4.9%) confirms the Toronto Stock Exchange's approval of a previously announced ~43.35M share repurchase program.
- MOS -2.8%, IPI -7.4%, AGU -2.1%, SQM -4.9%, CF -0.5%, RNF -1%, TNH -1.3%, UAN -0.4%.
Jul. 30, 2013, 10:43 AM
- Credit Suisse calls the dismantling of one of the world's largest potash partnerships "a complete game changer," with share prices in the sector possibly cut in half. "Our guys are saying don't go anywhere near" the big fertilizer names; "we would not be bottom fishers here."
- JPMorgan is out defending the group, thinking Mosaic (MOS -21.4%) should be down $8 and Potash (POT -20.9%) down $5; says a $50/ton drop in pricing would knock EPS by $0.75 for MOS and $0.40 for POT, far better than peers.
- IPI -29.5%, CMP -26.8%, AGU -3.8%, UAN -2.5%, CF -0.2%.
Jul. 29, 2013, 8:52 AM
- CVR Refining (CVRR) -4.3% premarket after updating its FY 2013 distribution outlook to $4.10-$4.80/unit.
- The updated outlook is primarily due to the decrease in the Group 3 2-1-1 crack spread, increased RINs expense, and an expected Q3 shutdown of the fluid catalytic cracking unit at its Coffeyville refinery.
- Sees upside guidance for Q2 revenues: $2.13B-$2.145B vs. $2.1B consensus.
- CVR Partners (UAN) updates FY 2013 distribution outlook to $1.80-$2.00/unit.
Jun. 10, 2013, 9:43 AMCVR Energy (CVI -1.5%) is cut to Sell from Neutral by Goldman Sachs, which says CVI shares appear to be discounting full credit for its target values for CVR Refining (UAN) and CVR Partners (CVRR), leaving little fundamental upside. Moreover, CVI is trading well above the combined market value of both UAN and CVRR adjusted for CVI’s ownership stake. | Jun. 10, 2013, 9:43 AM | 2 Comments
May 22, 2013, 9:43 AM
CVR Partners (UAN -7.4%) prices its 12M-share secondary offering, from which it will receive no proceeds, at $25.15/share. Albert Alfonso thinks the offering may prove a buying opportunity, noting the offering is not dilutive for UAN and common units outstanding will remain unchanged; global demand for urea ammonium nitrate is strong as farmland per capita decreases.| May 22, 2013, 9:43 AM
May 22, 2013, 9:17 AM